TLDR; Same thing cAPS always types.

I remember back last year when almost everyone who now has completely disowned PlanB was also saying we would "see 100k by 12/25", which he was also saying.

I am a unabashed perma-bull.  But I am also someone that knows we are in a sort of market chaos not seen for many decades, and perhaps ever.  Also that prediction stunk from the beginning.  No bitcoinner would have been disappointed.  But the two arbitrary data points were so lame.  100k?  The roundest mega target of all?  12/31/2021?  The last day of the year?  Also an obvious psychological magnet.

I also remember a sort of pre-spaces meetup show with Marty Bent, Matt ODell, Bitcoin TINA, and several other BTC Twitter luminaries where the ONLY person there who was not saying something like it would be 500k by the "end of the year" was TINA.  And what he predicted was pretty close to what we have seen.  That it would pull back into this year, and then make another run.  Obviously we are waiting on that other half of the prediction.

From here there are several possible paths but some notable ones:

We can follow the typical 4 year market cycle:
This one holds more weight now than I gave it last year for sure.  But there are so many caveats that I still am not convinced. (does not really matter as I will not trade anything either way.. only buy).  We had a "top: in the cycle unlike any other we have seen. A double top (BITCOIN IS DEAD!). And then a price meltdown early in the cycle seeming driven by the latest round of shitcoinery, and geopolitical and macroeconomic forces never seen before.  Some of what is happening in the world right now would fundamentally drive BTC higher, but a strengthening dollar (on it's deathbed) and all the DeFi nonsense blowing up tripped us up.  But if this theory holds true we will see the next bull run commence somewhere in 2023 and continue into 2024 possibly.

The cycle theory falls and we see another run in what should be this cycles bear market:
This is what I have been expecting.  But I did not expect we would see as deep a pullback as we have, so that makes the chances of this much smaller than before.  But I still think it is a contender.  I believe the shitcoinners gave large investors a heyday opportunity to load up on Bitcoin.  If this IS happening, it is mostly in the dark.  For example... it does not look like the Whale who moved coins to CB sold them on the market (lol right).  But he would really only have two reasons to do this.  1.  Transfer custody to CB (bad idea) or 2.  Sell (or some more complex arrangement?) these coins to a bidder(s) via CB's OTC desk.  Actually there is a third reason.  These coins already have a connection to Coinbase.  Not that they BELONG to CB necessarily.  But maybe they are collateral from a large whale who has back them from early on?  There are a lot of rumblings about CB becoming insolvent.  Not a strech with Armstrongs love of all things shitcoiney, a stupid DeFi things.   Could this be related?

Anyway.  I respect PlanB for continuing to provide interesting analysis in spite of the fact he takes so much heat from all the people who were sycophants before.  I have never been a fan of the S2F idea.  Not in a religious way at least.  I find it dubious.  Too much of a "test tube idea".  In other words you need perfect market conditions for it to not occasionally go orders of magnitude off track.  And we MOST CERTAINLY are not in perfect market conditions right now.  The USD in uncharted territory.  The world well into the 3rd world war without most even knowing it. And bitcoin itself.  A giant unknown to the vast majority of the human race.  Very few even begin to understand why it is important.

Even though I continue to think the S2F chart is fairly silly... i would be delighted if we rip up in a way that basically re-validates it temporarily.  Like Musk has said (about DOGE lol)... sometimes the universe does the funniest thing.   Obviously the other reason I would like this is it means something like 1/4MM corn.  So yeah... long shot at best.  Still... I am more than 50% sure this "cycle" is not going to be like the others. It already has not been, and I bet there are still surprises in store.

This seems worrisome...  makes this smell like a bull trap.  I do not want to believe that.

Thank God...  so many confirmations of the.. erh... ehh headfake at this point.

We are a little overbought on the daily... but, I figure there are a LOT of nervous shorts out there right now.

Maybe from here we go tap 22150.

In the cross hairs!

The dark side:



Also, not on the chart, but beautiful is the convergence of the channel top, likely resistance, and 50DMA.  Perfect storm for a big move one way or the other...

Posting for no real reason... just the lols.

Well obvious resistance is obvious.  Everything converges around here.

By this metric he has 3 months.  My node made requests for force closes 30 days ago.  The channel was opened 120 days ago.  Leaving him 3 months to return.

Or Channel opened 727763 Close request 741000 current 745150.  It was open for roughly 13k blocks.  So sometime around 758500 would do.

I am in no hurry.  I will also have to learn how to craft the close action by hand... that might be tough.

His node was YOUNG.  Mine was from 2019.  At the time his channel was worth ~2kUSD (half that now).  Who would walk away from this much.  Craig Wright?  Franky?  Really only a raving lunatic!

I did the forensics on this and I am amazed.

The zombie channel was indeed initiated by my channel partner.  And I do not believe it ever had any traffic.  So they are just kissing .05BTC goodbye.  Wow.  I assume eventually they will come to their senses and force close it.  But if it exists for X amount of time I will recover it.  I just have to decide what X is.

Way better than my post.

1.  I disclose first I do not like Chamath, and I do not support most of his fundamental positions. 
2.  His reasoning on top of those positions is impeccable.
3.  He believes the state needs to protect stupid retail. Specifically by banning them from doing things.
4.  He believes only people like him should be able to do certain things with money.
5.  He conflates things like Terra and Three arrows and Binance with Bitcoin.  WE have been shouting from the rooftops for 10 years that THESE THINGS ARE NOT BITCOIN.

Bitcoin does not need regulation, and CANNOT BE REGULATED.  Companies that trade in the dark and "off chain" can, and probably SHOULD be regulated.  That Celsius douche was such a obvious conman from the beginning.  As are many of the exchange owners.

My main problem with this video is he conflates all the fortune tellers, grifters and scammers with Bitcoin.

What they are "arbing" is the ignorance of people as to what Bitcoin actually is and why it is important to take custody of your own asset.  It is a DIGITAL BEARER ASSET.  And he who bears it... OWNS it.

I made most of my Bitcoin playing poker starting in 2011.  Even back then I was NEVER LEAVING MY COINS ON THOSE SITES.  I also never left my coins on exchanges.

I trust Bitstamp, or Kraken or Binance EXACTLY as much as I trust TradeOgre.

Yes.  "Third layer" trusted companies BADLY need to be regulated. Or avoided... One or the other.

This is a thing of beauty:



And it's even still a higher low since the big dip.

22 inc?

sauce: cAPSLOCK made it.

We do not yet have tech that can change the genetics of XY to XX or the opposite.

But we COULD!  That's what we want right?

For a male.  We have 7/8th of the genetic material of a female.  Perhaps this is why we live shorter lives.  (though it may also be because we have to live with women... serious) The Y chromosome is really basically an X missing a leg.  SO!  We will just put another leg on that Y!  Why not pick one of the other 7 branches the male has?  Oh wait?   Because THAT will give him whatever disease is present on that "leg" but nowhere else.  Shit that sucks.  Or OK... we can give him a leg from his father or mother that he does not already have.  Oh wait.  It does not work that way? We end up with diseases again?

Ok... Ok.  The answer is obvious, Dr. Mengele.  We will just code up whatever we think the genetics SHOULD be like we did with the covid vaccine.  That'll work!

This is a stupid game we are playing.

Even if we can redefine what genders are in nature (Pluto is a planet, no!  A comet!  No! an Asteroid... all the while >10,000,000 year old pluto LAUGHS at 35 year old humans changing their definition for it) we do not have anything close to the ability to realize these changes.

We are talking about language, not science.  Do not let anyone ever fool you there.  And it is through LANGUAGE, not science that the wicked control the weak.

Why else did good men blow up the fucking Georgia Guide Stones?

You are the king.

Actually I am also the king having seen my lowest bid at 19250 filled as well.  But... now... how much lower do I set these things?

-American Exceptionalism.
-And inspiration  for the Constitution of The Philippines.
-Light to the world.
-Bastion of freedom.

-And yes... a faulty hegemony. 
-Rapers of the middle east
-Enslavers of Africans
-And then the rest of the world via the US Federal Reserve.

Over now...  Ready to take the podium in history.  A great story to have been told... with a tragic end.

Or?

This is true.  Guns are needed to defend against a government willing to use violence against it's people.  But good for the Sri Lankans.

So, I certainly remember your Monero trolling.  Respected it.  You had decent game in that regard.  I mean it is a shitcoin in one sense.  Happens to be the SINGLE shitcoin I believe has value.  Quite a bit of value actually.  When Bitcoin is well in to six figures, I can imagine Monero getting a start into 5, but that is another post.

What I am doing now is...

If you need help pitching it up let me know... I am a wizard.  And, fuck Autotune... Melodyne is the shit.  120 an hour... free for Sir A.

I mean... I want to hear it.

Worth it:

https://twitter.com/DefSue3/status/1539279410255253507