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321  Economy / Economics / Re: The fight over electric car batteries on: December 27, 2022, 11:01:30 PM
Since electric vehicles are the future, there's a lot of attention for their development, and a battery is currently the most important part of the vehicle, because we still have problems with storing large amounts of electrical energy.

The US is making a lot of moves for helping domestic manufacturers, which worries its allies

The big idea is that a U.S. consumer can claim back $7,500 of the value of an electric car from their tax bill. But to qualify for that credit, the car needs to be assembled in North America and contain a battery with a certain percentage of the metals mined or recycled in the U.S., Canada or Mexico. Those rules become more strict over time, giving American producers time to prepar

President Joe Biden announced $2.8 billion in grants for 20 companies to produce batteries for electric vehicles in the United States.

The grants are being allocated through the Department of Energy with funds from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to companies in 12 states. The funding will go toward the creation of battery-grade materials including lithium, graphite and nickel.

Zimbabwe also decided to take advantage and try to boost its economy with some protectionism

Zimbabwe earlier this week stopped the export of raw lithium from its mines and said that it wants cash in on the value addition and also stop losing billions to foreign companies via mineral proceeds, news agencies reported.

On December 20, Zimbabwe’s ministry of Mines and Mining Development in a directive published under the nation’s Base Minerals Export Control Act said that the move was made to “ensure that the vision of the president to see the country becoming an upper-middle income economy has been realized.”



It is very strange but I don't remember africans mentioning themselves being on the losing end of trade agreements, until italy's prime minister Giorgia Meloni began openly acknowledging it.

High cost of fossil fuels, should translate to elevated shipping and transportation costs. Which incentivizes everyone to manufacture and produce locally, as shipping and transport costs become untenable. Its a decline of globalization and global markets, which should naturally be expected.

Many of africa's industries revolve around human labor mining, shipbreaking, strip mining and markets which rely upon low labor and low fossil fuel prices to carry exports. Removing low fossil fuel prices could result in decreased demand for exports, which could have castastrophic results. Although of course, this doesn't necessarily have to be the case. Markets could naturally shift and restructure to fill the gap. Although it could take time.
322  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: BANKMAN-FRIED PANIC GAMBLES TO REPAY DEBT on: December 27, 2022, 10:54:06 PM
Quote
According to Nansen Research, he lost  $100 million in Ethereum and USDT playing at crypto casinos like Stake, Bitcasino, and others. The dots begin to join and Binance’s unveiling of the misappropriation of customer funds now seems to make sense.


Was this SBF's attempt to turn FTX into a profitable enterprise? Or was it an extension of his league of legends recreational gaming?

If I remember correctly, his MIT degree was in mathematics. At the very least, he should have been able to apply the law of large numbers and similar principles in an attempt to quanticize his gambling strategy. Unfortunately for him, gambling isn't pure math. There are other branches of science which apply. With the main goal being accuracy. This implies pursuing and developing relationships with fact and truth. Which can run contrary to the ideology some embrace. Some prefer feelings and emotions over facts. Which could be guaranteed to result in a losing run as far as gambling is concerned.

If SBF has access to social media in prison, I will look forward to him talking more about his attempts to apply math to gambling. It should be interesting to say the least.
323  Other / Off-topic / Re: Mistakes Successful People Never Make Twice on: December 27, 2022, 10:42:59 PM
I don't know if its hard to be successful.

The definition of success could simply be doing things others do not want to.

-Warren Buffett did long term value investing, others did not want to. Other investors focused on fast money and short term gains with higher risk. Which is why Buffett ended up one of the wealthiest, while short term investors couldn't hope to match his success.

-Bill Gates did nerdy PC development people avoided. No one foresaw the computing industry and silicon valley blowing up to become household trends. Culturally, it was all about being the quarterback on the football team. Being a geek or a nerd was thought to hold little future promise, much less wealth.

-Elon Musk built electric cars that conventional automakers decided not to build for decades. No one wanted to build an electric car, no one thought they had a future.

It takes time and effort to develop knowledge, skill and value. Most simply do not want to do it. The path along things people do not want to do, is however often aligned with progress.
324  Other / Politics & Society / Ford ordered to pay $1.7 billion over deadly crash that killed US couple on: December 27, 2022, 10:29:18 PM
Quote
A US jury has returned a US$1.7 billion verdict against Ford Motor Co. involving a car crash that claimed the lives of a Georgia couple, their lawyers confirmed.

Jurors in Gwinnett County, just northeast of Atlanta, Georgia, returned the verdict late last week in the years-long civil case involving what the plaintiffs' lawyers called dangerously defective roofs on Ford pickup trucks, lawyer James Butler Jr confirmed today.

Melvin and Voncile Hill were killed in April 2014 in the rollover wreck of their 2002 Ford F-250. Their children Kim and Adam Hill were the plaintiffs in the wrongful death case.

"I used to buy Ford trucks," Butler said on Sunday local time.

"I thought nobody would sell a truck with a roof this weak. The damn thing is useless in a wreck. You might as well drive a convertible."

Ford did not immediately respond to requests for comment. But in closing arguments, lawyers hired by the company defended the actions of Ford and its engineers.
The Michigan-based automaker sought to defend the company against accusations "that Ford and its engineers acted willfully and wantonly, with a conscious indifference for the safety of the people who ride in their cars when they made these decisions about roof strength," defense lawyer William Withrow Jr said in his closing arguments, according to a court transcript.

The allegation that Ford was irresponsible and willfully made decisions that put customers at risk is "simply not the case," another defence lawyer, Paul Malek, said in the same closing argument.
Lawyers for the plaintiffs had submitted evidence of nearly 80 similar rollover wrecks that involved truck roofs being crushed that injured or killed motorists, Butler's law firm, Butler Prather LLP, said in a statement.
"More deaths and severe injuries are certain because millions of these trucks are on the road," Butler's co-counsel, Gerald Davidson, said in the statement.
"An award of punitive damages to hopefully warn people riding around in the millions of those trucks Ford sold was the reason the Hill family insisted on a verdict," Butler said.



https://www.9news.com.au/world/ford-ordered-to-pay-over-1-billion-us-dollars-after-truck-crash-court/4b391438-8ca7-4af1-9a3b-96ff37dbfedc


....


$1.7 billion?! Is this what they refer to as a landmark case? Or are multi billion dollar fines becoming normalized?

There is a saying that says: "complete amateurs built noah's ark, while professionals designed and built the titanic". Depending upon declining standards, and tasks completed by the lowest bidder. There is a point where amateurs will do a job better than pros.

Has the task of constructing strong truck roofing become virtual rocket science in this day and age, given manufacturing and market conditions? Have automotive manufacturers sought ways to cut corners and reduce the weight of vehicles, reducing in thinner A pillars and roof support in order to extend MPG stats? Have massive increases in horsepower ratings contributed towards crashes becoming more deadly? Perhaps the interior ergonomics of indoor roll cages are not aesthetically pleasing enough for automakers to standardize them?

What is happening here?
325  Economy / Economics / Re: Fiat currency (centralized system) on: December 23, 2022, 11:39:03 PM
This made think,  all this and more maybe was the reason why bitcoin was created to liberate we all from such Fiat control financial system.


I wonder how common this ideolgy has spread throughout today's world?

These types of ideas, used to be fringe ideology. Limited to a small subset demographic of society who pursued financial independence. It may be only recently that people have had their eyes opened to alternatives. The 2008 economic crisis served as a trigger event for the rise of this methodology. The global pandemic of 2020 and other crisis, could further accelerate the adoption of alternate views on economics and finance.

The irony of the topic is we have seen leaders in government like David Walker warn about these types of crisis since 2009.

Quote
Campaign for fiscal responsibility

Walker has compared the present-day United States to the Roman Empire in its decline, saying the U.S. government is on a "burning platform" of unsustainable policies and practices with fiscal deficits, expensive overcommitments to government provided health care, swelling Medicare and Social Security costs, the enormous expense of a prospective universal health care system, and overseas military commitments threatening a crisis if action is not taken soon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_M._Walker_(U.S._Comptroller_General)#Campaign_for_fiscal_responsibility

When David Walker did a nationwide tour on these topics back in 2009, I thought people would pay attention, wake up and the worst of it would be averted. However it seems that things did not go that way.
326  Economy / Economics / Re: Talking about Western society crash and debt and Fed rate hikes and btc on: December 22, 2022, 10:38:55 PM

Year right cause ^IXIC losing 33% from the ATH is still worse than crypto losing 75%.
Let's go back on a 5y graph and see that BTC is lower than 5 years ago while ^IXIC is up by a third?
We dropped like a stone this year and you actually make a case on this against stocks?


It was considered "normal" for bitcoin to exhibit "high volatility".

In the 5 months since bitcoin reached $20k (and later dropped to $16k), a case could be made for US stocks losing more wealth than btc:



Image link:  https://i.ibb.co/VJ11MG7/tesla.jpg

Tesla went from $300 down to $125 within the past 5 months.



Image link:  https://i.ibb.co/87b0Bf1/amazon.jpg

Amazon went from $140 down to $83 within the last 5 months.


Far larger declines than bitcon's downtrend from $20k to $16k.

How stock indexes and averages are not reflecting major losses, of its best performers, is a mystery to me.


As for FTX, everyone talks about the crash after, but nobody says a word about the fake growth that we had while this guy was pumping markets with money he didn't have. Same as Luna, while Kwon was buying BTC with IOUs everyone was cheering, when the crash happened, suddenly they forgot about that part.


I'm not certain if FTX or SBF did a single thing to support BTC's ATH.

Did they pump outside of NFTs?
327  Economy / Economics / Re: UK Norway finland and sweden economy in BIG debt on: December 22, 2022, 10:11:45 PM
The cynical and stereotypical response is to say banks and governments would loan money to both sides of a war. To rake in massive profits on interest payments. As OP mentioned state bureaucracies already carry high amounts of debt, which would make it difficult for them to finance war. More than 50% of banks also carry large amounts of debt.

If war arises, it would require other methods to fund it. We have seen nations like russia and china amass armies of forced conscripts who are paid lower wages in contrast to professional soldiers. We have also seen russia deny the use of its airforce to keep war costs down. With the exception of big american spending in the russia vs ukraine conflict, cost cutting has been the #1 priority.

If war breaks out, it will be a budget war. No one has the deep pockets to finance massive invasions like the US vs Iraq. Not anymore. Everyone is broke by this point.

The only major nation carrying low amounts of debt is russia. With debt near to 20% of GDP. The origins story of how that happened, has to be an interesting one. Whatever it is.
328  Other / Off-topic / Re: Be The Judge... on: December 22, 2022, 09:50:16 PM
This would've never happened in the EU or the US. You send someone to the closest ATM and the guy with the winning ticket gets paid on the spot. IN the EU they would've called cops on you right there when you said you don't have money.

Then the guy hires thugs to help him redeem his winnings of $200? Where I live those guys would charge at least $100 each for help. Nobody would come to your aid and risk a 2 day stay in jail for a few bucks.


It definitely does happen in the USA.

In the city I used to live in, there was a basketball court next to a small skate park. There was a guy playing basketball who had a gold necklace from his deceased grandma. He put the necklace on the ground with his things when he was playing basketball, so it wouldn't get damaged or broken. When he came back, his gold necklace was gone. Someone had stolen it.

There were words exchanged and some type of altercation. The guy with the missing necklace left the basketball courts. Then he returned with 2 truckloads of thugs. And a big brawl broke out. Don't remember if he ever found his missing necklace but it was the talk of the town for awhile.

When I was in high school, there was a student who brought a gun to school who was showing it to his friends in class. When school ended, there was a helicopter flying above the school which was very unusual. The student with the gun was taken down by police, at the bus stop. Within a few minutes of him being arrested, a few carloads of thugs showed up as if to show moral support for their arrested gun touting member, but they didn't do anything.

The US doesn't allow for those types of small lotteries to be operated by independent buisness owners. It can only be done illegally, under the table. Which there definitely is a lot of underground illegal gambling that is known to happen. That could be the main reason, we haven't heard similar stories from the USA.

..

Was the reason behind them not paying out winning tickets on time discovered? Fast payouts is something gamblers definitely favor. It they can't payout winning tickets on time. It could indicate they're having trouble with credit or liquidity. The smart move is to take business somewhere else.

On the opposite end, lotteries should probably not allow someone to exceed credit to a point where they owe $5. That could cross the line into hustling. They could never payout winnings and simply offer credit to every winning gambler, until all of them turn into a losing gamblers. And it would be more of a hustle and scam than a legitimate business.
329  Economy / Economics / Re: Hope for cryptocurrency in Nigeria. on: December 21, 2022, 11:25:51 PM
This announcement makes me wonder if FOREX exchange rates around the world are forcing nations to implement extreme measures.



Image link:  https://i.ibb.co/wCnNtr2/nigerian-naira-to-usd.jpg

Above we can see the FOREX exchange rate for the nigerian naira and us dollar for 2022.

These fundamental shifts in trade could seriously threaten stability for major economies.

Which could greenlight crypto as an alternative.

Ghana announced they would seek to purchase oil in gold rather than their native currency to avoid price swings in FOREX exchange:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5423456.msg61353854#msg61353854

A similar negative precedent may also be felt in nigeria.
330  Economy / Economics / Re: What was the dumbest thing FTX spent money on… on: December 21, 2022, 10:37:29 PM
In your opinion. What do you think is the biggest waste of money and most useless thing that SBF spent money on.




His MIT diploma.

Everything SBF said gave the impression he majored in gender studies or wrote books on the morality of whether men should urinate sitting down.

Its shocking to think he graduated from one of the most prestigious technical institutes in the world. With a "degree" in math. (How?) His reactions and the arguments he makes are far more emotional in depth, rather than logical or math oriented.

If I remember correctly, SBF made comments where he tried to compare his waking and sleeping cycles with RAM memory in PCs. But the way he did it, appeared to indicate he does not comprehend how RAM functions. Which appears to indicate his entire MIT education was a waste.
331  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Core Scientific Firm to Pay Debt Through Bitcoin Mining on: December 21, 2022, 09:38:13 PM
Crypto mining ventures in austin texas, may have been powered by new wind farms constructed in the area.

Bankruptcies of crypto mining ops in state, could place strain on wind farms seeking energy consumers to sell renewable power to.

One of the positive aspects of crypto mining is it being very mobile and able to locate anywhere on the globe with an internet connection. This made it well suited to target surplus forms of renewable power. Which in turn helped fund the expansion of renewables around the globe.

This issue is much bigger than crypto mining. And carries a potential to negatively affect many separate industries.
332  Economy / Economics / Re: Talking about Western society crash and debt and Fed rate hikes and btc on: December 21, 2022, 07:43:11 PM
If it is true that the US tech industry lost $7.4 trillion in market cap over the last 12 months:

Quote
Tech’s reality check: How the industry lost $7.4 trillion in one year

  • The Nasdaq has tumbled sharply from its all-time high a year ago, as layoffs, inflation and rising interest rates roil the tech industry.
  • Companies are slowing spending and responding to a weakening economy after seeing their stock prices tank.
  • “You just don’t know what it’s going to be like going forward,” Jeff Grabow, venture capital leader at EY, told CNBC.

Not one of the 15 most valuable U.S. tech companies has generated positive returns in 2021. Microsoft has shed roughly $700 billion in market cap. Meta’s market cap has contracted by over 70% from its highs, wiping out over $600 billion in value this year.

In total, investors have lost roughly $7.4 trillion, based on the 12-month drop in the Nasdaq.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/25/techs-reality-check-how-the-industry-lost-7point4-trillion-in-one-year.html

A case could be made for crypto currently outperforming stocks.

I think most look exclusively at crypto's losses and do not realize stocks and other assets are losing value at a faster rate.

If it wasn't for the FTX crash and the havoc it wreaked on the industry, bitcoin would 100% definitely be outperforming the stock market atm.
333  Economy / Economics / California and the Midwest face ‘high risk’ of electricity shortages on: December 20, 2022, 11:29:58 PM
Quote

  • The electricity grid is being pushed to the breaking point and California, parts of the Midwest and parts of the South Central United States are at “high risk” for energy shortfalls.
  • The grid is being challenged as it goes through an unprecedented transformation from fossil fuel based energy to renewable sources of energy.
  • NERC officials emphasized how important it is for grid operators to be very conservative in retiring generation, particularly in regions of the country where the system is at its max already.


America’s electrical grid is being pushed to the breaking point, and California, parts of the Midwest and parts of the South Central United States are at “high risk” for energy shortfalls, says the not-for-profit organization charged with managing and evaluating the grid.

“High risk” regions, marked in red on the map, may see shortfalls at “normal peak conditions,” according to the 54th annual assessment from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation released Thursday.

The reasons for the shortfalls vary.

In the Midwestern states and Ontario, more power generation is being retired than is being added back online, NERC’s Mark Olson told reporters Thursday. Energy shortfalls have been projected in that region since 2018, Olson said.

In California, the risk is due to a “variable resource mix” and “demand variability,” Olson said. That means there’s a lot of renewable energy in the state, and its generation is not coordinated with the times people need the most energy. NERC predicts that demand could fall below supply for 10 hours during peak summer months in 2024.

Much of the rest of the Midwest and the rest of the Western part of the United States are at “elevated risk” (yellow on the map), which means shortfalls may occur in extreme conditions, like during severe weather or hot spells where everyone is running air conditioners. In New England, the elevated risk comes in the winter when people use generators that depend on natural gas.

“The natural gas capacity can be insufficient for generators, leading to use of backup fuels, stored liquid fuels, and there are risks to being able to maintain sufficient fuel storage during long duration events,” Olson said.

The Southwest could also suffer when demand is high and wind energy generation is low in the region.

‘Extraordinary times’

“We are living in extraordinary times from an electric industry perspective,” John Moura, the director of reliability assessment at NERC, said on Thursday.

Increasing awareness of climate change is pushing utilities to phase out fossil fuel-based sources of energy that generate carbon emissions. Renewables like wind and solar don’t contribute to climate change, but have period where they don’t generate any energy (when the sky is dark or the wind is still).

Renewables also don’t necessarily map to where demand is, unlike fossil fuels, which can be transported and burned near where they’re consumed. That means more transmission lines are needed, and building them can take from seven to 15 years, Moura says.

Another area of note, according to NERC, is the increased power demand of cryptocurrency mining and the need to plan for energy usage there.

Then there’s the weather. It’s tricky to tie particular extreme weather events to climate change, but it’s generally true that a warmer world is a wetter one, according to NASA climate scientists.

“Year after year, we’ve seen extreme weather leading to increased reliability impacts. And so when we look at events over the last several years, it’s clear that the bulk power system is impacted by extreme weather more than it ever has,” Moura told reporters on the media call.

These factors are placing increased strain on the grid, and NERC representatives urge grid operators to be conservative in their planning.

“Managing the pace of our generation retirement and our resource mix changes to ensure we have enough energy and essential services are an absolute necessity,” Moura told reporters on the call. “We need to work with the entire ecosystem to make sure we’re managing that base, and to be very clear that we’re not retiring generation prematurely — that is done in an orderly fashion and especially in areas that are right on the edge.”

For its annual long-term electricity security assessment, NERC looks at the coming decade, but energy and capacity risk assessment goes out for the coming five years, from 2023 to 2027. There are too many moving parts and uncertainties for a risk assessment past the next five years to be worthwhile, according to NERC.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission certified NERC to measure and enforce safety standards for the energy grid in the United States in 2006. NERC is subject to the oversight of FERC, which is the federal governmental agency in charge of regulating interstate electricity transmission.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/15/california-midwest-at-high-risk-of-electricity-shortages-nerc.html


....


In the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, are electricity and energy supply projected to become deflationary for the forseeable future?

If this is true. Is it fair to say economic trends post 2020 have become dominated by deflationary declines in supply? Our financial markets and trends are operating under a post abundance economy? If such an analysis can offer a clearer insight, into economic projections for the near future. It could help serve in an advisory role, in terms of which assets to invest in. And which financial policies to take.

To some degree bitcoin and crypto mining have become associated with hydroelectric and renewable sources of energy. Venezuelans used "free electricity" generated by the caracas dam to mine bitcoin in previous years. Currently today, we see US states like texas powering crypto mining ventures through their newly constructed wind farms.

We currently lack mobile options to serve as consumption for surplus renewable power. Perhaps this is a role which crypto can be utilized to fill in the future?
334  Economy / Economics / Re: Employers are Deflating Salaries in Job Ads to keep Pay Down on: December 20, 2022, 11:07:21 PM
This has been a typical occurrence for many years, even decades. The root causes of which have long been known, studied, ignored and forgotten.

If inflation is 3% annually. All employees must receive a 3% pay raise to break even, and not experience depreciation of salary. Lack of pay raise to maintain parity with inflation, results in declines of wages. Which translates to decreased purchasing power of consumers and declining standard of living over the long term.

There have been a few major causes of US employees receiving pay cuts over the past two decades. Can anyone guess what they were? To offer a hint, these pay cuts affected middle class americans more than any other income bracket. It is likely middle class america who understand best the form and shape these pay cuts take. As they have been hit by more of them than any other demographic.

While the main causes of these trends are known. (As I have seen them discussed for the past 15 years over the internet.) Most of the discussion appears to have gone offline. Its not nearly as common for people to discuss these topics on internet forums or discussion groups. But judging from recent trends, it would seem that people are becoming much more knowledgeable, despite the lack of internet participation. They are much more knowledgeable on topics like this one, than they used to be. It shows in choices relating to things like immigration and voting patterns, becoming more informed over time.

335  Economy / Economics / Car repossessions are on the rise in warning sign for the economy on: December 20, 2022, 10:52:14 PM
Quote
After auto repossessions tumbled during the pandemic, they are now approaching their pre-pandemic levels with industry analysts worried the trend will continue.

WASHINGTON — A growing number of consumers are falling behind on their car payments, a trend financial analysts fear will continue, in a sign of the strain soaring car prices and prolonged inflation are having on household budgets.

Repossessions tumbled at the start of the pandemic when Americans got a boost from stimulus checks and lenders were more willing to accommodate those behind on their payments. But in recent months, the number of people behind on their car payments has been approaching prepandemic levels, and for the lowest-income consumers, the rate of loan defaults is now exceeding where it was in 2019, according to data from ratings agency Fitch.

Industry analysts worry the trend is only going to continue into 2023 with economists expecting unemployment to rise, inflation to remain relatively high and household savings set to dwindle. At the same time, a growing number of consumers are having to stretch their budgets to afford a vehicle; the average monthly payment for a new car is up 26% since 2019 to $718 a month, and nearly one in six new car buyers is spending more than $1,000 a month on vehicles. Other costs associated with owning a car have also shot up, including insurance, gas and repairs.

“These repossessions are occurring on people who could afford that $500 or $600 a month payment two years ago, but now everything else in their life is more expensive,” said Ivan Drury, director of insights at car buying website Edmunds. “That’s where we’re starting to see the repossessions happen because it’s just everything else starting to pin you down.”

'Recipe for disaster'

For those in the repossession business, it’s been difficult to keep up. Jeremy Cross, the president of International Recovery Systems in Pennsylvania, said he can’t find enough repo men to meet the demand or space to hold all the cars his company has been tasked with repossessing. With the holidays approaching, he’s been particularly busy as people prioritize spending elsewhere, and he’s expecting business to keep up throughout next year and 2024.

“Right now, it’s really the perfect storm,” said Cross. “Over the last two years, vehicle prices were inflated because there was no new car supply, people were still buying like crazy because they had a lot of stay-at-home cash, they had inflated credit scores, so it was like a recipe for disaster.”

At the same time, the number of repossession companies has shrunk by 30% as many firms closed up shop and the workers found jobs in other industries when repossessions tumbled during 2020, Cross said. Now, he said, lenders are paying him premiums to repossess their cars first in anticipation of a continued increase in loan defaults.

“The volume is picking up, and the remaining companies that are still performing repossessions are very busy,” Cross said. “The overall numbers are still not prepandemic numbers, but we will see a big change coming in ‘23 and ‘24 that I think the lenders are starting to recognize because they are offering financial incentives that they never had to do in the past. They’re jockeying for position knowing that there’s only a certain amount of bandwidth available.”

It’s an issue that’s raised concern among officials at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, who say they are seeing troubling signs in the auto market, particularly among so-called subprime borrowers, who have below-average credit scores, and those with loans taken out in 2021 and 2022 when auto prices were particularly high.

“Loans taken out in those years are performing worse than prior years just because those consumers had to finance cars once the supply chains were jammed and the prices started to go up,” said Ryan Kelly, acting auto finance program manager for the CFPB. “Those consumers got hit with inflation twice. First, when they had to finance a car after the prices went up, and then when they had to put gas in the car after the Russia-Ukraine conflict started. So there’s just a lot of consumer stress.”

If the economy deteriorates as many economists are predicting in 2023, the number of those falling behind on their car payments should continue to rise, even as consumers tend to give priority to their car payment ahead of most bills because of the importance a car plays in getting to work or potentially providing shelter, industry analysts said.

Still, the rate of defaults and repossessions isn’t expected to reach 2008 and 2009 levels, when there was a spike caused by the financial crisis. The percentage of auto loans that were 30 days delinquent was at 2.2% in the third quarter compared with 2.35% delinquent over the same period in 2019, according to data from Experian. By contrast, just over 4% of auto loans went into default in 2009.

“We’re expecting it to continue to increase and maybe even breach prepandemic levels because of the macroeconomic headwinds of higher interest rates, higher cost of borrowing and expectations for unemployment to continue to increase,” said Margaret Rowe, the lead auto analyst at Fitch. “I think our expectation is that we’re going to continue to see it go up, but it’s just been so low that even going up isn’t like what we saw in the Great Financial Crisis.”

'A lot of stress'

Cox Automotive analysts forecast that while loan defaults and repossessions will increase from their pandemic lows, long-term through 2025 they predict overall defaults and repossessions will remain at or below historic norms.

Still, the financial squeeze has been particularly difficult for lower-income consumers looking for budget vehicles, which have been particularly hard to find. While in the past, those car buyers would have purchased a used car for $7,000 to $15,000 they are now having to spend $20,000 to $25,000 for the same type of vehicle. Among dealers that cater to subprime and deep subprime consumers, the average listing price on their cars has almost doubled since the beginning of the pandemic, according to the CFPB.

“That near prime and subprime group of consumers, they’re getting hit very, very hard by inflation. That group of people did not have much disposable income. They had to finance a more expensive car and then they got hit with prices going up overall. There’s just a lot of stress,” said Kelly.

Ally Financial, which has a significant share of loans to subprime borrowers, said in its October earnings report that it expects delinquencies to increase to as much as 3.8% compared with 3.1% in 2019.

Another risk to car buyers’ finances is the growing length of auto loans, many of which now exceed seven years. While those longer term loans can lower the monthly payments amid higher prices, consumers risk paying off the loan much more slowly than the car is depreciating, leaving them underwater if they need to sell the vehicle. It can also mean higher interest costs over the life of the loan on top of already inflated vehicle prices.

For consumers, there is unlikely to be any relief over the next year. Interest rates are expected to remain high for those needing to borrow to buy a vehicle, and Covid-related plant closures and material shortages are continuing to ripple through the car manufacturing supply chain, limiting the number of new vehicles.

“I dare think what happens to people who are signing up for new loans today,” said Drury. “It’s not going to be better when we see these payments so high.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/economics/car-repossessions-are-rise-warning-sign-economy-rcna61916


....


The same negative trend also applies to housing loan markets.

While many contractual loans are failing at historically high rates. Could there be an eventual upside in terms of car and real estate assets becoming more affordable within the foreseeable future?

It has recently been acknowledged that used car prices are downtrending sharply at a record rate, (I think) in correlation with the elevated rate of failing car loans.

Quote
Used vehicle demand and prices continue to decline from record highs

  • Wholesale prices of used vehicles reached their lowest level in more than a year last month, as retail sales decline amid interest rate hikes, rising new vehicle availability and recessionary fears.
  • The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which tracks prices of used vehicles sold at its U.S. wholesale auctions, has declined about 16% from record levels in January.
  • The decline is good news for potential car buyers, however not great for companies such as Carvana that purchased vehicles at record highs and are now trying to sell them at a profit.

Cox Automotive said Wednesday that its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which tracks prices of used vehicles sold at its U.S. wholesale auctions, has declined 15.6% from record levels in January through November. The index dropped to 199.4 last month, below 200 for the first time since August 2021, and is down 14.2% from the same month a year ago. It marks the sixth-consecutive month of declines.



Image link:  https://i.ibb.co/ky2F5mW/used-car-prices-2022.jpg

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/07/used-vehicle-demand-and-prices-continue-to-decline-from-record-highs.html

Perhaps we will likewise see real estate market values fall within a similar trend, which would make living space more affordable for many current full time employees who cannot afford it.

Unfortunately, there could be another trend in play here. Cars and living space might increasingly become deflationary in supply. It has been reported that US automakers are inching nearer to bankruptcy. Which could result in overall scarcity of car supply, if production and competition decline.

Similar trends could also apply to US real estate markets. Where influxes of immigration could contribute towards real estate and living space becoming increasingly scarce and limited in supply.

But in the short term, from the chart above we can see that used car prices are declining and perhaps that will correlate with long term market trends to make transportation and living space more affordable.
336  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Brain expert: The One thing that sets those with better cognitive ability apart on: December 20, 2022, 10:31:35 PM
I am curious to know whether learning and brain exercise might also be useful in addressing disorders like alzheimers.

 Nope. It's not a sure-fire way to treat Alzheimer's since there has not been a cure yet, although medication and management strategies may help reduce the threat but won't stop the inevitable.
 
I also doubt that psilocybin helps in the repair of brain damage as it has side effects such as visual and mental hallucinations
More insight on this is gotten on this link
check here and also hampers the energy needed by the brain to function properly
  and here


It is known that exercise can help treat degenerative conditions like osteoperosis (declining bone density) in women.

Based on that precedent, it is possible that exercising the brain could help stave off degenerative conditions like alzheimers.

As mentioned psilocybin has been used in clinical tests to treat conditions like PTSD and traumatic brain injury.

It isn't only Joe Rogan who is endorsing medical benefits of compounds like DMT.
337  Economy / Economics / Re: Warren Buffett rips Wall Street for turning stock market into a gambling parlor on: December 20, 2022, 10:16:54 PM
OP, there's nothing new about it, and it has been like a gambling parlor since the beginning of the existence of markets. The Tulip Mania, the South Sea Bubble, the bull market during the 1920s, and all the other market manias/bubbles in history. Everyone bought something, and hoped to be rich and wealthy.

The long cryptocurrency super cycle ITSELF will have its own manias and its own depressions, its own peaks and valleys, and there's NOTHING that can change this fact.


Is it fair to say history in finance is cyclical in nature? The process begins with an emphasis on fairness, stability and sound money. We have seen this with bitcoin where its inception was dominated by idealism.

As time passes, the emphasis on fairness, stability and sound money practices declines. The system becomes increasingly unstable as people devise increasingly risky and profitable ventures, which usually come at the expense of stability and balance. Until it finally results in a tremendous crash. While motives and reasons behind this process can vary between different eras. It could be fair to say some of the motives and trends remain the same over the course of history.

To some degree, we may also have observed this trend in bitcoin. As time passed bitcoin has increasingly become an instrument of speculation, which has caused its trading patterns to deviate from historical norms. The way bitcoin and crypto are handled and traded have drifted away from core fundamental founding principles. Which have resulted in reduced stability and reliability.

Even though human history is dotted with thousands of years of inflation and failed monetary policy. We have yet to learn from our mistakes sufficiently enough to sustain long term preventionary measures. "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure," is the ideal we should embrace. But it seems there are simply never enough who recognize dangers of repeating failed monetary policy, for these types of disasters to be prevented.
338  Economy / Economics / Re: 2022-2023 Are Crisis don't ask or wait just do it print your own money on: December 19, 2022, 11:46:47 PM
Are there legal loopholes which could allow a person to devise an independent system of units of exchange?

I know there was a case years back where a man in hawaii minted his own gold and silver coins. He's currently in prison, as far as I know. He didn't try to use loopholes or be clever about it. He simply melted bars of gold and silver into his own form of money (coins), and used it within his own local economic system to buy and sell things.

Tokens of barter and trade might be legal. It might be possible to develop a system using that as a foundation. Although, I don't know if there are many with the will or resources to tackle that type of challenge.
339  Economy / Economics / America's biggest vegetable growers fought for water, then the water ran out on: December 19, 2022, 11:27:36 PM
Quote

Late in the afternoon on November 14, a historic email landed in the inboxes of hundreds of California farmers whose land lies within the Westlands Water District, the largest agricultural irrigation agency in the country – and one of the most controversial.

For decades, Westlands has led the fight against environmental rules that restrict the flow of water from California's rivers to its farmers. It sued the government, lobbied friendly politicians, and took on critics wherever it found them, even in Congress. "Where's the outrage, that government decisions have created zero water supplies for communities in the San Joaquin Valley?" Westlands General Manager Tom Birmingham admonished a congressional committee in 2016.

Tim Quinn, former executive director of the Association of California Water Agencies, says Birmingham and members of the Westlands governing board "were pretty entrenched in adversarial decision making. It was us versus them, and we were going to win and they were going to lose."

That November email, however, revealed an unprecedented power shift at Westlands. In an election for the organization's nine-member board, candidates from a self-described Change Coalition had won all four open seats. The winning candidates are calling on the district to spend less time fighting legal and political battles and more time figuring out ways to live with less water. It amounted to a repudiation of Birmingham, an imperious figure who has run Westlands for more than 20 years. Birmingham later announced he'll retire at the end of the year.

The vote is a sign that even in the most conservative parts of California's Central Valley, home to the biggest source of America's fresh produce, attitudes are shifting. Farmers are coming to terms with the fact that their operations will have to change — and in many areas, shrink — to survive chronic drought, depleted aquifers and climate change.

A legacy of political power

Sarah Woolf is an unlikely rebel. She grew up in a farming family just outside the boundary of Westlands Water District, then married into another one — the Woolfs, who run one of the biggest farming operations in the district. She became an expert on water policy while working for a California congressman, then started her own consulting business, Water Wise.

More than anyone else, she catalyzed the movement for change at Westlands. "I just didn't feel that it was appropriate to go along to get along," she says. "We weren't making positive strides."

To understand what she wanted to change, you have to go back to the 1950s and 1960s. Farmers needed water to grow food on the western edge of the San Joaquin Valley but there are no big rivers; growers relied instead on deep wells drilled into aquifers. But that underground reservoir wouldn't last long, and everyone knew it.

The farmers and their backers got the federal government to build a new dam and canal that connected their land to the system of dams and aqueducts known as the Central Valley Project. President John F. Kennedy himself showed up for the groundbreaking. "It is a pleasure for me to come out here and help blow up this valley in the cause of progress," he joked to the crowd.

The new canal delivered water from dams hundreds of miles to the north, like Shasta and Trinity. Westlands Water District was formed to distribute that water to 600,000 acres of land. Mark Arax, a writer who has chronicled the rise of Central Valley agriculture, calls it an act of "pure political power."

"We had a fair amount of clout, legislatively," Woolf says. "We were a very rich district; we had politically active landowners. We hired very talented lobbyists." The 700 or so farms within Westlands are mostly large, high-tech operations.

In 1992, though, Westlands met the limits of its power. Over its protests, Congress enacted the Central Valley Project Improvement Act. The law limited water deliveries to farmers when this could threaten the survival of wildlife, such as fish in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta — the sprawling network of waterways that empties into the San Francisco Bay.

The act, together with rulings from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, cut the flow of water to Westlands dramatically during years of drought. Some years, the growers got no water at all. They were shocked and furious.

"The district's approach was to fight it. Tooth and nail," Woolf says. "They hired the best attorneys. They hired the best lobbyists." Their approach, she says, was simple: "We will fight this and we will win because we are right."

Yet Woolf grew increasingly convinced that this battle was futile. Farmers were up against too many other powerful interests. She decided cooperation was the only solution and urged Westlands to stop pushing legislation "that was only beneficial to us."

In 2012, after Woolf was appointed to a vacant seat on the Westlands board, she tried unsuccessfully to get Westlands to sit down with other groups, including environmentalists, to explore possible compromises. She ended up butting heads with Tom Birmingham, partly over policies and partly over Birmingham's personal style. "He's an authoritarian, even a dictator," Woolf says with a laugh. "It's his show." Birmingham declined to be interviewed for this story.

In 2018, Woolf resigned from the Westlands board with a public letter of protest. She wrote that her efforts to "direct our district in a more collaborative and progressive direction" had met stubborn resistance.

Then, other farmers started reaching out to her. They were increasingly worried. Drought was becoming more frequent. In four of the past nine years, Westlands has received no water at all from the Central Valley Project.

Westlands farmers had stayed in business by pumping enormous amounts of groundwater from shrinking aquifers. But a new California law, the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, will severely restrict their ability to do this.

"I think this farming community is really struggling at this point," says Justin Diener, whose family grows vegetables and almonds near Five Points. "There are a lot of people who are kind of looking at the walls, wondering what they are going to do."

"I sat down with many of (the growers), gave them the history of what I had seen, and they started attending meetings," Woolf says. "They started being challenged by the general manager when they would ask questions. And then they got riled up and upset. And we made it clear, if you want to make a change, you have to get on the board and do something."

Earlier this year, dissident farmers named themselves the Change Coalition for Westlands Landowners, and settled on four candidates to run for the board. Diener was one of them. Woolf worked behind the scenes, but chose not to run.

Storing water underground

There's a range of views within the Change Coalition about what exactly they'd like to accomplish. Diener, who was elected in November, wants a realistic plan to survive. With climate change, droughts are persisting longer. The snowpack in the Sierra Nevada mountains is melting faster. Future floods may be more intense.

If the most recent decade is a guide to the future, Diener says, the district can only expect to receive enough water to grow crops on about 300,000 acres in an average year. That's half the original area of Westlands Water District, and 40% less than what's available to grow crops today.

What's worse, the water comes in bursts. In 2017, when rain drenched California, Westlands actually turned away potential water deliveries because no growers wanted it. Other years, the district gets no water at all, except for what it can buy on the open market at exorbitant prices. Such drastic fluctuations in water availability have been especially tough on growers with almond trees that require water every year just to stay alive. Growers now are ripping out some of those parched orchards.

What's urgently needed, according to Diener and other growers, is the infrastructure to store water underground when it's abundant, so that it's available when the rains stop.

An example: On Woolf family land southeast of the city of Huron, there's a dry creek bed that fills with water when it rains. Every half-dozen years or so, it floods, and because the creek's natural course is blocked, floodwater spills across a floodplain. A layer of silt, built up from years of floods, prevents the water from percolating into the earth, so much of it evaporates.

The Woolfs and neighboring landowners have now built a system to capture and store that water. When the next flood comes, they'll divert the water to a field where it will soak into the ground, all the way down to the aquifer. Farmers — and the nearby city of Huron — will be able to pump that water from their wells.

Westlands should be doing much more of this, Woolf says. Other water agencies in the San Joaquin Valley certainly are. But Westlands has lagged behind. "That's a lack of vision, and a lack of focus on things that we can control," says Jon Reiter, a farmer and consultant who works with Westlands growers. Instead, Westlands focused "on things that we can't control," like decisions by courts and Congress, he says.

Replenishing the aquifers during periodic storms can ease the pain during drought, but it also means growers can't expand their fields when water is plentiful. They'll have to restrain themselves, keeping land fallow, allowing water to soak into the ground so it's there when they truly need it.

Talking with adversaries

Woolf, meanwhile, wants Westlands to be a better neighbor. "What we do is important; growing food is important, it's something to be proud of," she says. "But if we're just fighting with people, I'm not very proud of that." The fighting, she says, blocks discussions — and potentially, compromises — between farmers and other groups with their own claims on California's water.

Such discussions among adversaries are underway in the San Joaquin Valley Collaborative Action Program (CAP), which formed in 2020. It's a forum that brings together farmers, advocates for safe drinking water in disadvantaged communities, local governments, water agencies, and environmentalists. Westlands is not participating, but Woolf and Reiter are.

"I spent much of my career in the San Joaquin Valley watching [these groups] fight with each other," says Quinn, now a visiting fellow at Stanford University's program on Water in the West, who helped launch the group. "I wasn't really convinced that they were ready for the kind of collaboration that I thought was necessary. And turns out, by God, they were."

The group this fall released its goals, which include safe drinking water for communities that don't have it now, better management of water for agriculture, and coordinated shifts in the use of land. That includes converting some previously irrigated farmland into habitat for wildlife. "That's the future," says Quinn. "You can't make progress in 21st century California without adopting a collaborative approach."

For Westlands, such collaboration might mean working with Rey León, the mayor of the mostly Latino town of Huron, in the heart of the Westlands Water District. He's launched efforts to plant trees, reuse wastewater, share electric cars, and build bike lanes.

He's had very little contact with Westlands and never met Tom Birmingham, the water district's general manager for the past two decades. Most landowners of Westlands don't live nearby, on the land they farm, but in Fresno, 30 or more miles away. Yet the fate of Huron's residents has long been linked to decisions that Westlands landowners make about water and farming.

Farmworkers no longer crowd the town at harvest time, since many growers switched from vegetables that require hand labor to almonds that are harvested by machine. If there's another shift, this time from agriculture to, say, solar farms, León wants Huron residents to get access to those jobs. "We have to be innovative, and develop new models of collaboration, because they haven't existed in the past," he says.

Change wins

In October, a month before the Westlands board election, the candidates who were running as the Change Coalition laid out their priorities in a letter to Westlands landowners. They proposed storing more water underground, relying less on "legal and political solutions" to the district's water problems. They also advocated developing a long-term plan for the district's land that includes other uses, such as solar farms and wildlife habitat, and improving relationships with "moderate environmental groups, disadvantaged communities, and safe drinking water advocates."

The Change Coalition candidates won all four open seats. Together with two allies already on the nine-member board, they appear to have a working majority. A week after the election results were announced, Birmingham announced he'd be stepping down.

Dan Errotabere, a retiring member of the board who supported Birmingham, is skeptical that the new board members really will do anything different, or better, than their predecessors. He says he examined the Change Coalition's program and "there's nothing that we're not doing. We are doing all those things. I think they'll recognize that, when they get on the board, and they see all the fine details."

But Quinn calls the Westlands transition a "sea change." Mark Arax, the author, says it's a historic step for the leaders of Westlands to accept the fact that water is scarce, and that their farms will have to shrink. "I don't think that's window dressing," he says. "I think it's a real change, and if that's acknowledged, that's a big story. Westlands, this behemoth, has cut itself in half."

https://www.npr.org/2022/12/15/1139932893/some-of-americas-biggest-vegetable-growers-fought-for-water-then-the-water-ran-o


....


Its a long piece on declining water supply. People fighting over limited water, which may be becoming a deflationary resource. Which in turn leads to fewer crops being grown. Resulting in agricultural produce also becoming deflationary in supply.

Trends in previously abundant resources becoming scarce and deflationary in supply appears to be on the rise. Even basic resources like water are becoming more difficult to acquire. In part, I think this is due to growth of human population. The average person consumes a significant amount of water in washing, bathing and consumption. Multiplying consumption by population growth in specific regions, might naturally end in water scarcity.

When bitcoin was first making headlines, its deflationary design was questioned and criticized across the board. Now that basic necessities like water and food are becoming deflationary in supply. Might we finally witness an end to the inflation vs deflation debates? Could real life and exhibited effects of water scarcity, translate to digital assets like bitcoin? In terms of validity of design?

And while many have asked what the best method of investment is to generate profits in eras of inflation and recession. Perhaps in looming issues like water scarcity, we see a potential for alternate options such as desalination plants? Could desalination plants become worthwhile investments in eras of water scarcity, where water is becoming a deflationary resource? And could there be more entry level alternatives to investing in desalination plants that are available to investors who lack the deep pockets necessary to fund a desalination plant?
340  Economy / Economics / FTX was engaged in a massive, years-long fraud: US prosecutors on: December 19, 2022, 10:58:14 PM
Quote
NEW YORK - Sam Bankman-Fried’s lies, US prosecutors say, stretched back to the very beginning.

From the founding of his cryptocurrency exchange FTX in 2019, Bankman-Fried engaged in widespread fraud, federal authorities said, and used his customers’ deposits to finance his political activities, buy lavish real estate and invest in other companies.


According to civil and criminal charges filed against Bankman-Fried in the Southern District of New York on Dec 13, he repeatedly lied to customers, investors and lenders about the structure of his business empire and how he handled the billions of dollars in funds that crypto users deposited in his exchange.

In a 13-page criminal indictment, Bankman-Fried was charged with eight counts, including wire fraud against customers and lenders, as well as conspiracy to defraud the United States and violate campaign finance laws. A civil complaint filed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) laid out a detailed narrative of FTX’s collapse, claiming that for three years Bankman-Fried had misappropriated billions in customer deposits to fund his business and political activities.

The charges against Bankman-Fried came on one of the most dramatic days in the rapidly unfolding collapse of FTX, which has rocked the crypto industry. In Washington, the company’s new chief executive officer, who took over when the firm filed for bankruptcy, testified in Congress, laying out the myriad management failures that contributed to the exchange’s implosion. In Nassau, the capital of the Bahamas, Bankman-Fried appeared in court for the first time, having spent the night in a police cell after being arrested at his home on Dec 12. He was denied bail and remained in custody.

The arrest surprised the FTX founder and his parents, who were visiting him, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. Bankman-Fried was taken away in handcuffs.

Bankman-Fried appeared in Magistrate Court, dressed in a blue suit and white shirt, eschewing his usual dishevelled outfit of shorts and T-shirt. He was escorted inside by police, while his parents, Stanford Law School professors Joe Bankman and Barbara Fried, sat in the rear of the gallery.

The lead prosecutor for Bahamian authorities, Mr Franklyn Williams, argued that Bankman-Fried was a flight risk, with sufficient financial resources to escape the country. A lawyer for Bankman-Fried said his decision to remain in the Bahamas after FTX collapsed showed he had no intention to flee, adding that Bankman-Fried required medication for depression and attention deficit disorder.

The court’s chief magistrate Joyann Ferguson-Pratt ruled that Bankman-Fried should remain in custody. He was allowed a few minutes with his parents, who embraced him in a long hug as the courtroom was cleared.

Bankman-Fried’s arrest was a stunning fall from grace for an executive who was once described as a modern-day John Pierpont Morgan, and became a darling of big investors in Silicon Valley and a prolific Democratic Party donor. These days, Bankman-Fried, 30, is more often likened to Bernie Madoff, the fraudster who orchestrated a notorious Ponzi scheme.

As FTX collapsed, the SEC said in its complaint, investors were kept in the dark about what was going on. Federal prosecutors said Bankman-Fried’s lenders were also kept in the dark. And hundreds of thousands of FTX customers around the world were kept in the dark, too – only to find out that their money was gone.

“Bankman-Fried was orchestrating a massive, years-long fraud, diverting billions of dollars of the trading platform’s customer funds for his own personal benefit and to help grow his crypto empire,” the SEC said.

According to court filings, Bankman-Fried was indicted by a grand jury on Dec 9. The arrest took place three days later, when Bahamian authorities took him into custody at Albany, the luxury apartment complex where he has lived since he moved FTX to the island from Hong Kong in 2021.

At a news conference on Dec 13, US attorney for the Southern District of New York Damian Williams said the investigation into FTX was “very much ongoing” and “moving very quickly”.

He called the company’s collapse “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history”.

Federal prosecutors will need to extradite Bankman-Fried so he can face trial in federal court in the United States. But while the Bahamas has an extradition treaty with the US, that process could stretch for weeks or months if Bankman-Fried contests it.

Mr Mark Cohen, a lawyer for Bankman-Fried, said his client “is reviewing the charges with his legal team and considering all of his legal options”.

Just over a month ago, Bankman-Fried was widely viewed as one of the few reliable figures in a freewheeling, loosely regulated industry. He contributed US$5.6 million (S$7.6 million) to President Joe Biden’s 2020 election effort, and FTX also spent lavishly on TV commercials with an array of celebrity endorsers such as basketball star Stephen Curry and NFL quarterback Tom Brady. Bankman-Fried had been at the forefront of an industry-wide effort to bring crypto into the mainstream of American commerce.

But strip away all the references to crypto in the SEC’s civil complaint, and a picture emerges of garden-variety lies to investors – falsehoods that date back to 2019.

Regulators say Bankman-Fried lied to dozens of big venture capital firms and wealthy family offices, as he raised nearly US$2 billion (S$2.7 billion) to finance his company.

The SEC claims that he misled those investors in reports about the financial health of FTX and its sister company, Alameda Research, a crypto trading platform that he had helped start. He also misled investors about the close ties between the two companies, the SEC said, and concealed how he had allowed his trading firm to routinely borrow money from FTX customers – borrowing that occurred despite claims that all customer money was safe.

The mixing of money allowed Alameda to make bigger trades, invest in other crypto companies, buy Bahamas real estate and make personal loans to FTX executives. The fraud was enabled in two key ways, the SEC said: FTX customers were directed to deposit fiat currency, such as US dollars, in bank accounts controlled by Alameda, and the trading firm could draw down from a “virtually limitless” line of credit funded by FTX customer assets.

Then in the spring, when the crypto market began to crater, other crypto firms that were lenders to Alameda began to call in their loans, demanding repayment, according to the authorities. That forced Bankman-Fried and others at FTX to double down and take even more money from FTX customers to make Alameda whole.

The strategy of taking money from FTX to keep Alameda afloat imploded when customers of the crypto exchange started demanding their money this autumn. The financial hole was US$8 billion (S$10.86 billion), so big that the whole enterprise collapsed.

In the indictment and accompanying court papers, federal prosecutors echoed many of the allegations in the SEC’s complaint. They also claimed Bankman-Fried had broken campaign finance laws by making political contributions to both the Democratic and Republican parties “in the names of co-conspirators, when in fact those contributions were funded by Alameda Research with misappropriated customer funds”.

The scheme was “in the service of the defendant’s desire to influence the direction of policy and legislation on the cryptocurrency industry”, prosecutors wrote in court papers.

Before his arrest, Bankman-Fried was scheduled to testify at a Dec 13 hearing in front of the House Financial Services Committee, which is investigating the collapse of FTX. The hearing went ahead without him, featuring testimony from John Jay Ray III, a veteran of corporate restructuring who has taken over as CEO of FTX.

In his opening statement, Mr Ray blamed the collapse of FTX on the “absolute concentration of control in the hands of a small group of grossly inexperienced and unsophisticated individuals”.

In the early 2000s, Mr Ray oversaw the unwinding of Enron, the energy trading firm that collapsed in an accounting scandal. At the hearing, he called the perpetrators of Enron’s crimes “highly sophisticated”, whereas FTX executives appeared to have engaged in “really just old-fashioned embezzlement”, he said.

“Even with most failed companies, we have a fair road map of what happened,” Mr Ray said in his testimony. “We’re dealing with a literal paperless bankruptcy. It makes it difficult to track.”

The SEC, in its complaint, amplified those concerns and warnings. The complaint said that from the beginning, “FTX had poor controls and fundamentally deficient risk management procedures”. The SEC said the company treated assets and liabilities as “interchangeable” in its accounting ledgers and bookkeeping.

For now, however, no one other than Bankman-Fried has been charged.

https://www.straitstimes.com/tech/tech-news/ftx-was-engaged-in-a-massive-yearslong-fraud-us-prosecutors


....


I hadn't realized both of SBF's parents are stanford law professors:

Quote
Bankman-Fried appeared in Magistrate Court, dressed in a blue suit and white shirt, eschewing his usual dishevelled outfit of shorts and T-shirt. He was escorted inside by police, while his parents, Stanford Law School professors Joe Bankman and Barbara Fried, sat in the rear of the gallery.

The irony of two law professors having a child who commits one of the greatest financial frauds in history. Was SBF motivated to commit fraud as a form of rebellion against his parents?

If this is accurate it appears FTX was run as a giant slush fund from day one. Without any consideration given to risk assessment, compartmentalization or any of the core tenets large financial operations typically utilize to mitigate risk. Could lack of regulation partially be due to FTX being run as an offshore legal entity? In which case, crypto markets might shift towards more regulated markets? Or does the risk extend to more established and regulated exchanges like coinbase and binance as well?
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