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341  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2022, 05:14:54 PM


Random

But...  but...  it goes...  nvm. Smiley
342  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2022, 12:53:16 PM
This is the weirdest bear market so far...
I am having fun!  I really am.
same here. the thrill is back for me. not since i started and went through my 1st crash (~90% drop) have i felt like this.
are we toast? have we made a huge mistake? if we crash way hard and crater it big time will it survive?
and just like my 1st "panic" in the 2011 crash one thing stays the same for me: HODL this pig. cuz moon or hole in the ground im in 100%
You guys are sick.

That's why empowering is getting invited to the party, and you two are NOT.

Fun.. .

yeah right.. Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

I have to chime in it is a bit more complex than just being black and white.  Though in some ways I tend towards polarity myself.  I have never been comfortable trading.  My strategies are very tailored to what is successful to me.  But there is still risk.  One risk that became realized during this particular bull/bear run was always there.  You just don't know what life is going to throw at you.

Well it threw everything at me between 2021 and now.  I got news yesterday that my mother is likely dying.

In retrospect if I had taken more profits when we were 3x higher I would be in much better shape now.  But I have also chosen this strategy with my eyes wide open.  I will get through this time, and possibly be better for it.  Or it will kill me.  Can't say for sure.  Never can.

It sounds trite.  It might sound like the tritest thing one can ever say.  I have been here here in the Bitcoin hurricane-roller-coaster with you crazy people for a lot of years now.  And it has taught me something that might even be more valuable than the financial gain possible if one can weather this storm.  And that is what really matters in life.  See.. trite.  We all already know this.  But I did not KNOW it, and am just learning really

It is fleeting. It is hard to grasp.  And impossible, really, to control.  The path of life, that is.  I can only breathe in, and out. And make choices.  But in the end I must really be at peace with where I am.  Or not.

Breathe in... out...

It is possible to look back on life and see the things I could have done differently.  I could have paid better attention to that thing happening with my child in 2016.  I could have bought more bitcoin in 2011.  And so on.  A mirror image of this, it is also possible to become full of myself and make lists of the things I have done right.  But both of these paths spring from the same emptiness.

I am a Christian.  But I draw a lot from the Buddhists too, I guess.  And desire is a mean ass bitch.  I admire death_wish for laying his errors out on the line for all to see here (although... well nevermind).  And desire isn't really bad.  It just is what it is.  Like fire.  And knowing how to work with it, is to be free from being burned by it, I think.

Anyway.  Somehow this experience with Bitcoin has taught me how to care about the right things a little better... and not care about the wrong ones as much.

I am having fun during this bear!  Why is that?  Is it because I am a masochist?  No.  Because I want to pretend I don't hate not selling at the top and buying at the bottom over and over?  Nope.  It is because this is one of the most interesting seasons in Bitcoin I have seen so far, and I have seen just about all of them.

I mean good grief.  Roger Ver may have gotten liquidated during this time.  I think when the smoke clears this will have been one of the most crazy periods in Bitcoin's history.  And I find that fun. 

Anyway...  I hope you will reconsider my invitation to the party.  But if you don't?  That's OK too. 

Breathe in.
343  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2022, 02:44:09 AM
Don't get too excited about that green candle.

We're in completely uncharted waters, presently; ending the third worst performing month in the history of Bitcoin, so far, on top of historical VC blow-outs spreading contagion everywhere.

May take some more time yet to fully unwind, considering how big of an L many VC's took this month.

Stay frosty, and keep your powder dry.

It's weird isn't it? 
344  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2022, 02:23:56 AM
What do people think contributed most to Golds 20 year bear market ?

If not 10 years of over-speculation to the upside, It could have been re-installed faith in fiat currencies, despite the fact they were still effectively worthless, but doesn't look that way.

The fact that the S&P made a new high in 1980 after an 8 year bear market can't be a coincidence though. Money better placed elsewhere? GOLD vs SPX back then:



One of my best trades ever was buying a sack of gold towards the end of 1999.
345  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2022, 01:42:15 AM
I think we HAVE to go down some more... but that chart is encouraging a little because the money to be made playing this reliable game means the price want's to be made to go up.  We COULD have bottomed as many people say... but usually bitcoin bottoms are more violent than this one has seemed to have been.

If my memory is serving me very well, our move down to $17,593 (a mere 11 days ago) was pretty violent so far.. and we are still more than 10% below the 200-week-moving average (which also feels like a kind of ongoing violence.. but what do I know?).. It kind of reminds me of  our early 2015 bottom down to $153 or whatever it was?  That felt violent, too... but what do I know?


I hope you are right...  I guess the part I am not seeing is the sort of action that makes this look like something other than just a big bear flag.  The DOWN was violent, but the UP has not been.   Yet.

Plus we keep dipping into weekends which never feels very "yay".

Well.. it's not exactly Kill Bill yet, but we're to Pulp Fiction for sure, I'd say... Smiley
346  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2022, 01:24:06 PM
Whoops.  




Not surprised.

Also of interest?


https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/06/30/2471737/0/en/Grayscale-Investments-Initiates-Lawsuit-Against-the-SEC.html
347  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Lightning Network Observer on: June 30, 2022, 01:01:09 PM
Lightning Labs announced their latest version of Lightning implementation:



You can read the full announcement here:
Announcing lnd 0.15 beta: To Taproot and Beyond!


Micheal levine commented:


Quote
We're pleased to announce lnd 0.15 beta, our first release of 2022! Building on our commitment to make the Lightning Network more reliable, robust, and secure, our latest release includes:
 
  • The ability to create and spend from Taproot addresses
  • New RPC methods to support experimental MuSig2 signing
  • Database space reduction of ~95% by reducing state stored in revocation logs for new data
  • New pathfinding variable to give more control over time and cost tradeoff
  • Mobile improvements including a new neutrino subserver and exposing main subservers by default

Levine added two interesting insight on the new foundation layer they area adding toward future functionalities:

Quote
Given the community excited around Taproot and the functionality it enables, we wanted to prioritize "taproot-ifying" lnd. This release gives complete Taproot support for the internal lnd wallet, making it one of the most advanced Taproot wallets today. Further, this release has support for an experimental Musig2 API compliant with the latest BIP draft.

Very interesting times approaching.


This looks really good.  I understand the next point release will get that database reduction to be retroactive as well... awesome.

Actually in the wake of my catastrophe recently, I am seriously thinking about letting my old LND node die (though I still have 2 zombie channels I need to get closed first with quite a few sats in the balance) even though it was the older one with a really good reputation, huge traffic, BOS ranking etc.

I think I might just stick with the CL node from here... I really like how they are building better, I think.
348  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2022, 12:47:31 PM
If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.

Oh my God... I just had this terrible thought... This could lead to a sort of negative feedback loop!  Ahh, what could we call it... an "abysmal spinning down".  No too clunky.  Umm, a "deceasement loop"... nah deceasement is not a word, is it?

I don't know... someone could come up with a good name for it.

How have we never thought of this before?


...death spiral ?

That's great!!! Have you checked for the .com .org and .net?

Or wait... do you mean that dude that posts those long long things here recently?
349  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2022, 12:46:40 PM
Gambler’s Fallacy
Most blocks take nowhere near 10 minutes to arrive; the average of the exponential distribution is almost meaningless to everyday-life usage questions of “how long will this take?”, and the exponential distribution generally defies human intuition.
It is classic Gambler’s Fallacy.

No, I am not trying to be persnickety.  The Bitcoinland urban legend of “blocks take about 10 minutes” is Gambler’s Fallacy:  A practical expectation that you are “due” for a win based on a statistical average.

I feel like multiple things are being said...  But if you do not add assumptions to the end of the statement: "Every 10 minutes" then it stands on it's own.  Or maybe it stands for me BECAUSE of the assumptions, I assume we are all making ( Smiley )

1.  It is not exact.  I believe the average is a little below 10, since hash power has been being added all along. , But not sure.
2.  It is a Poisson distribution so it's ALWAYS 10 minutes.  Which means, yes, it might be 4 hours this time and at 3:50 in we were right finally! Wink

Is the point you are making that saying it is 10m is wrong because it almost never actually IS 10m?

(I cut out 2009 since it was crazy-pants)

I am assuming when we say 10m we are all also understanding that it is a distribution that is always aiming for somewhere near that number... not that it IS that number.   That sort of contradiction is part of the beauty of it in my opinion.  

I like seeing 3 blocks come right on top of each other within the span of seconds... And I feel kind of twitchy when it's been over an hour since the last one.  These feelings come from the same part of my lizard brain that stops and looks at the roulette board in the casino that shows that the ball has landed on black 8 times in a row and tempts me to put money on red.

My lizard brain probably saves me from about as much trouble as it gets me in...  that's the basis IT revolves around.
350  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2022, 12:35:28 PM
I wonder how much SBF is willing to risk on private bailouts that create future moral hazard.

I don’t hate him the same way that some here do.  I recognize that he is very smart.  I tend to have a certain respect for smart people.

Just saying that if he overextends himself—a hell of a question mark—then his attempt to buy future moral hazard may be a self-solving problem.  He does not have the ability of a government to create unlimited money out of thin air, then let the burden fall on the people through taxation, inflation, and the kind of unbounded debt that happens when debtors can pass laws raising their own credit limits.  Billionaires with MIT degrees can get rekt, too!

In 2008, I said that “too big to fail” needs to fail fast and hard—no matter what short-term pain may result.  Because the alternative is unlimited long-term pain.  In 2022, should I say differently here?  It is now patently obvious that numerous corrupt billionaires laid land mines throughout our market.  Now, they bring “The Times 03/Jan/2009” into Bitcoinland.  Insofar as I can see, the only way to clean up that mess is to let the mines detonate—right in their faces.

If Buddy makes you sad, look on the bright side:  Perhaps in the long run, a really awful-more-awfuller crash right now could be good for Bitcoin.  Perhaps, perhaps...  #justsaying

Despite my flamboyant, over the top yalping about him, I do not hate him either.  And agree he is smart.  But he is a fool.  Smart fools are dangerous.
351  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2022, 12:32:52 PM
If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.

Oh my God... I just had this terrible thought... This could lead to a sort of negative feedback loop!  Ahh, what could we call it... an "abysmal spinning down".  No too clunky.  Umm, a "deceasement loop"... nah deceasement is not a word, is it?

I don't know... someone could come up with a good name for it.

How have we never thought of this before?
352  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2022, 12:25:15 PM
I think we HAVE to go down some more... but that chart is encouraging a little because the money to be made playing this reliable game means the price want's to be made to go up.  We COULD have bottomed as many people say... but usually bitcoin bottoms are more violent than this one has seemed to have been.

If my memory is serving me very well, our move down to $17,593 (a mere 11 days ago) was pretty violent so far.. and we are still more than 10% below the 200-week-moving average (which also feels like a kind of ongoing violence.. but what do I know?).. It kind of reminds me of  our early 2015 bottom down to $153 or whatever it was?  That felt violent, too... but what do I know?


I hope you are right...  I guess the part I am not seeing is the sort of action that makes this look like something other than just a big bear flag.  The DOWN was violent, but the UP has not been.   Yet.

Plus we keep dipping into weekends which never feels very "yay".
353  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 30, 2022, 11:51:26 AM

I do not really care that much about Nic Carter.  He is obviously a brilliant mind, and someone who has made a shit ton of money investing in things... calls himself a "VC" now.  Almost certainly has some Patagonia gear.

Bitcoin does not care.  And *I* care even less.


Leave it to me to contradict myself within hours...

But it also proves the rest of my post which I cut up there... but the point was Bitcoin doesn't care.  And it doesn't...  But another thing this has made me want to say... This is the weirdest bear market so far...

I am having fun!  I really am.

354  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 29, 2022, 01:53:20 PM
OK.  In the wake of Crypto Twatters recent hysterical seizures...

-Bitcoin DOES NOT CARE about:
--Nic Carter
--Michael Saylor
--ANY OTHER "influencer" or personality.
-Bitcoin does not care if you own alt coins.
-Bitcoin does not care what country you are in.
-Bitcoin does not care what language you speak.
-So it does not care if you call it a "store of value", or "digital gold" or a "ponzi scheme". It doesn't even know what those are.
-Bitcoin does not care if you call it a medium of exchange or not.  Or if you use it as one.
-It does not care if you like lightning, or hate it.

I could go on for pages... but you can too.

I will say I have ALWAYS found the childish gatekeeping purity test shit to be EXTREMELY ANNOYING.  Yes... we have a rule here.  This thread is about Bitcoin.  Most of us here are fairly to one side of the "maxi" continuum.

I do not really care that much about Nic Carter.  He is obviously a brilliant mind, and someone who has made a shit ton of money investing in things... calls himself a "VC" now.  Almost certainly has some Patagonia gear.

Bitcoin does not care.  And *I* care even less.

If I start hearing the hoards of Bitcoiners wailing about "slaying your heros" etc... well I suppose I should stay away from twitter for a while.  It will annoy me especially while other people who essentially do the same thing as Nic wag their fingers at him.  Samson, for example.  Someone who launched an ERC20 token.  But likes to masquerade as  a Maxi. 

I don't care about that either (and I am certain Bitcoin doesn't! Smiley )

I think part of this is I have just been on this earth long enough to see how childish all this is... The Bitcoin "community" really needs to grow up.

And it will...  In time.  And at the same time there will always be fools (like me) wailing about whatever hurt their feelings.

And Bitcoin does not care. 

Oh look!  Block 742858 is going to show up any second!  Or should I say, any 10 minute?
355  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 29, 2022, 01:08:45 PM
BTC/USDT Liquidation Chart

On the right are the shorts, and on the left are the longs.
Exchanges move prices to f*ck these retailers.


https://thekingfisher.io/


A LOT of money has been made swinging the price up and down and stopping out those leveraged positions.

It's a catch 22 really.  Bitcoin is a worldwide unregulated wild wild west market and people can do whatever the *^&(% the want.  I know Saylor (and others) want the regulation to come stop that from happening as much but it really never can entirely.  No one can control the asset.  There will always be markets who do unregulated things in Bitcoin (and crypto (sorry JJG)).

I think we HAVE to go down some more... but that chart is encouraging a little because the money to be made playing this reliable game means the price want's to be made to go up.  We COULD have bottommed as many people say... but usually bitcoin bottoms are more violent than this one has seemed to have been.

We will see.

Completely unrelated.  I cannot ever see the word "Kingfisher" without being transported back to India.  Many years ago, I was hired to play with a group performing in Andra Pradesh because their drummer had fallen ill.  I was a last minute replacement.  It was one of the funnest couple weeks of my life.  And I will never forget playing on a stage in front of (I think) around 20,000 people.  No big deal in India really...  but for me?  I felt like a rock star.  Well we had to travel a little... and the Indian regional budget airline at the time was called "Kingfisher" after the bird as well, (but really after the beer) and when you boarded one of those planes this video would play on a screen with the EXTREMELY swanky CEO with a hot girl on each arm saying "Welcome! Thank you for flying  KING-FISH-AHHH".  

For some odd reason I will never get that guys voice out of my head... lol.  Your chart made me hear it again, and then I had to tell this story.
356  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 29, 2022, 12:47:51 PM


Much obliged... my new setup thanks to you!



Looks nice! I should provide you a new version of the first (left screen) photo, which is somewhat poorly color corrected, compared to the second one (right screen).
EDIT: Aaaw, shit. The other way round. The right screen was the first shot  Roll Eyes
Mumbles to self: Not a good start into the day, OOM...

EDIT2: That Berhringer WING completely went by unnoticed. I like.



Yeah.. was telling a fren about my history of the studio a few weeks back under the influence of a little too much rum (don't worry everyone I am back on the wagon now).  I always wanted to like Behringer because I love cheap things lol... but they have always made garbage.  But they made a lot of money selling clever copies of other peoples designs that did not last very long over the years, bought up a lot of really good other audio companies and transformed.  The single handedly brought the price of medium<->large format analog consoles to it's knees introducing the X32 series.

But you are on the only one who has overlooked the Wing.  (I know you just mean you didn't see it in the pic... but the gear has been a real sleeper product, I think.) They should be very proud.  This is an absolute magnus opus from them, in my opinion.  It is the most fun piece of audio gear I have owned, even if not one with any sort of pedigree.  Yet it too happened at a time that live sound (and us performing musicians) was crushed by the Covid world...  Anyway...

I am a sucker for various space pictures as backgrounds... and I like the contrast between these two... but if you do the color correction I will replace! Wink

Also... now I am going to see if I can hook my daughters telescope up to my little Nikon.  Would a paper towel cardboard cylinder gaff tape and some aluminum foil work?
357  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 29, 2022, 12:23:35 AM

EDIT Image embedding seems to be broken atm?

https://i.imgur.com/3Wf5Qul.jpeg
Much obliged... my new setup thanks to you!



358  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 28, 2022, 01:46:16 PM
A to my railing against ZCash, you are right, though I had heard about them moving to the non trusted new tech I have not followed closely to see that they had.  That's a plus.  But there are many minuses still for me.  And with life being how it currently is for me ([...personal details...]) I have not had time to respond to much here.

[...]

Have anonymously donated to both Bitcoin Development as well as another project along the way.  Both my own money and my time in the form of community contributions and merged pull requests on both projects.

My sympathies for your family situation.  (Snipped from the quote, just in case it’s too much information.)  I hope that your people will be ok.

Based on your statements in this post, I edited another recent post of mine with an apology for and retraction of some aspersions cast on your character.

I can guess that you refer to That Other Privacy Coin.  The one with a community fund.  I am familiar with both projects, I weigh pros and cons of each—you’re right, it is off-topic for WO in itself.  I only wanted to discuss technology I have been yearning to see in Bitcoin for about the past nine years.  It got into a tangent because, hey, it is salutary to remind people that Core development gets paid for somehow.

A to my railing against ZCash, you are right, though I had heard about them moving to the non trusted new tech I have not followed closely to see that they had.  That's a plus.  But there are many minuses still for me.
[...]
That said, I have several complaints about that project.  Do not agree with the Dev tax argument, though I am sympathetic.

Many pluses and minuses for me, too.  I insinuated somewhere, perhaps a bit too subtly, that they could have better manged the “dev tax” money; this type of issue has sometimes caused controversy and alienation in the Zcash community.  I was speaking only to the principle of the matter, by way of pointing out that Bitcoiners need to support Core.  Beyond that, the only part of my Zcash criticisms relevant to WO is that I am very worried by their announced plans to switch to POS, which seem to me a matter of smooth-talking VC-types putting the hard-sell on naïve crypto-nerds who are sad about their coin’s price performance.

POS is eating the world.  Old-school POW alts first:  It is strategic to isolate Bitcoin as a big consumer of energy and to set more POS-switch precedents, as anti-POW propaganda ramps up.  In addition to my fears as a longtime Zcasher, I see this ultimately as an attack on Bitcoin—the ultimate target.

I do try to keep on-topic here.  Anything that I’ve said about Zcash is ancillary to discussion of Bitcoin, and not reasonably avoidable for that.  If I wanted to praise or critique Zcash in itself, that would be a different post—and it would come off much differently.  By the way, if I wanted to discuss That Other Privacy Coin, I would discuss its decentralization and its community strengths (and RandomX) in addition to critiquing its privacy technology.  What I really want is to have it all in one place:  In Bitcoin.

I agree NFT's might end up useful tech for just the thing you are mentioning (titles, other single certificate type uses) but I think the best implementation would be a federated sidechain.  I think cities, counties, states and the federal government, title companies etc. could be members of the sidechain, and others could subscribe.  It would be hash-anchored to bitcoin, but maintained by the federation.

Ultimately, I think that a better trustless, or trust-minimized Bitcoin sidechain implementation is needed to support numerous use cases:  Scaling, zero-knowledge proof privacy (the original Zerocoin and Zerocash ideas were for BTC on Bitcoin sidechains!), smart contracts/on-chain programmability (wtf am I doing on POS chains? need the features), the non-scam parts of defi, non-idiotic NFTs, etc.

I am very strictly against spamming the Bitcoin mainnet (e.g., check post history re so-called “burner addresses”).  But I am cautious about discussing sidechains:  I know that many ideas have undesirable security risks.

I am aware of RSK, but an EthVM clone is not exactly my cup of tea.  I do like that it is merge-mined with Bitcoin.  I am very much in favour of merge-mining sidechains (or altcoins) with Bitcoin.



^^^ The discussion of sidechains incited a brainstorm.  Of something else that could be done with ZKP on mainnet; another non-privacy application thereof, in addition to the idea I had in the Development forum a few weeks ago.  Sat here a long time thinking about it...  Need to post this; to be continued somewhere/sometime.

Thanks for the sympathies and retractions of curses, though i do not mind.  Similarly i apologize for being a jerkass back there...  My recent stress has damaged a lot of my filters. 

I am a reluctant Maxi.  I think there is room for other blockchain projects to flourish (not 10,000 that's for sure), though I also think we will most likely gravitate to one central chain, and I think I know what it will be. Ha.  And I have a very sort of strict ethos for what I do, and do not like to see in a project, and can get overly passionate and sometimes heated about things.  ZCash puts a particular burr in my saddle.  Also, I should not speak as I did about the Winklevosses, though I also see them as just another couple shitcoin casino owners.  But there is a continuum, and they are more on the Kraken side of that continuum for me than the Coinbase/FTX side.

Plus, I can take the heat... you and I can go back and forth about alts somewhere else or in PMs if you want to, though my time is not very abundant right now.
359  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 28, 2022, 02:52:42 AM

2021: NFTs!  ICOs with even LESS utility!  (also possibly the worlds most complex troll)

NFTs are a good technology being abused for >99% trash, instead of the use cases where they would make sense.*  Not unlike early Bitcoin.  Notice the refrain?

* For one illustrative example, merely to establish the threshold credibility of the idea:  I think that NFTs will someday revolutionize the recording of real property deeds and chains of title.  Real-world real property, not low-grade cartoons of bored apes.  Anyone who has real-life experience with homeownership or other real estate will see the benefit of taking the public records out of the current inefficient systems, and cryptographically authenticating them on a blockchain.



By the way, cAPSLOCK:  When Richy_T civilly disagreed with me based on his outdated information about Blockstream Satellite, and I corrected him, he kinda-sorta acknowledged his mistake; and he continued with a constructive discussion.  Why do you dodge the factual correction of your very rude misinformation? Roll Eyes

ZCASH is a fucking trusted setup

Your are ill-informed.  The trusted setup is dead.  Gone with Halo2.  Zcash’s Orchard shielded value pool, activated on mainnet in May 2022, has no trusted setup!

That is one of several major reasons why I declare the technology now “mature”:  No more trusted setup.  I put up with the trusted setup in Zcash myself, from its beginning until 2022; but I disliked it.  I would not want to bring it to Bitcoin.  The Zcash team also disliked it—actually, they hated it!  Therefore, they spent years working on improved cryptography to get rid of it forever.

You also have not answered my point about a “dev tax”.  cAPSLOCK, you hate the idea of a “dev tax”; and you insult altcoins that have a “dev tax”.  So, over all these years that you have enjoyed Bitcoin, have you donated any nontrivial amounts to support Bitcoin Core development?  Developers need to be paid somehow.  I know that some big BTC HODLers are very good about this; they tend not to be the ones who sneer at little altcoins for having a “dev tax”, for they understand that developers need to be paid somehow.

I agree NFT's might end up useful tech for just the thing you are mentioning (titles, other single certificate type uses) but I think the best implementation would be a federated sidechain.  I think cities, counties, states and the federal government, title companies etc. could be members of the sidechain, and others could subscribe.  It would be hash-anchored to bitcoin, but maintained by the federation.

A to my railing against ZCash, you are right, though I had heard about them moving to the non trusted new tech I have not followed closely to see that they had.  That's a plus.  But there are many minuses still for me.  And with life being how it currently is for me (one child in the hospital long term, another in a country halfway around the world, and a personal visit this weekend to the ER duraing a terrifying negative prescription drug reaction) I have not had time to respond to much here.

That said, I have several complaints about that project.  Do not agree with the Dev tax argument, though I am sympathetic.  Have anonymously donated to both Bitcoin Development as well as another project along the way.  Both my own money and my time in the form of community contributions and merged pull requests on both projects.  But along with my personal circumstances, as it has been mentioned here alts are taboo, which I try to respect 90% of the time.. Wink
360  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2022, 02:44:39 PM

I don't know if they were daydreaming. Of course, BTC can potentially go $250K or more in the future. That doesn't mean it will Boom in a few months. LOL.

Eventually, sure. And probably sooner than most would think. We're in the doldrums for at least another year though, I think. Healing is needed, bad memories need to fade, confidence needs to return.

Obviously the meltdown of all the DeFi nonsense is going to take a while to be resolved.  Though there are some possible pluses in this.  For example the fact that establishment finance companies (like Goldman) bidding for the smouldering rubble of these DeFi startups is a very bullish sign in my opinion.  It means the big establishment money sees value, even in this broken failures.  The due diligence needed to make offers in this environment means they have, among other things, looked into what the regulatory future is shaping up to be.  Don't get me wrong.  I am no fan of "the big establishment money", and I do not see it as something needed for Bitcoin to succeed.  But as Bitcoin succeeds it is inevitable that we see these folks getting into the pool in ways like this.

Secondly, the emerging conspiracy theory around the BAYC genesis has a long way to go before we burn through that narrative.  And it is dark enough that I kind of expect the powers that be to try at the "See how evil and alt-righ" crypto bros are?" narrative a good run because of that.

The one thing that I see good in all this smouldering garbage is even the average person is going to begin to see that there is a difference between Bitcoin and everything else.

2010: Bitcoin is magical internet money that geeks play with and it's a ponzi.
2012: Bitcoin went up!  I bought in for A dollar and sold for  $50!  I am a genius to have cashed out of that ponzi.
2014: New projects getting started!  Wonder what the next bitcoin is?
2015: World computer is Bitcoin 2.0
2017: ICOs!  The new way to sell illegal securities!
2018: Bitcoin is dead, but something else will emerge from crypto!
2019: Look at all these ETH Killers! Oh, and what's Bitcoin again?
2020: DeFi!  THIS is the future... We all knew smart contracts would be useful!  Maybe this is how?
2021: NFTs!  ICOs with even LESS utility!  (also possibly the worlds most complex troll)
2022: There is a difference between Bitcoin and Crypto

We still have shit ahead of us... The whole energy narrative is just getting started, and most people can't see why PoS is just the old system digitized... And evidently Elon is either too dumb to see what Doge actually is, or hes scamming. So as much as I would like to think we learned our lesson this time, I doubt we have.
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