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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
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8/4 - 16 (16.7%)
8/11 - 7 (7.3%)
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8/25 - 7 (7.3%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26451871 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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June 25, 2022, 11:49:01 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


I have a hard time believing that anyone who holds/controls large sums of bitcoin are going to keep it in places that can be identified as being owned by one person or entity (unless they are a public company or a government that has to make those kinds of disclosures).  

If I were to hold any appreciable amount of Bitcoin (I do not, of course) I would set it up so that it was stored in a multisig cold storage setup (optionally with hardware wallets separately geo-located).  But I would also backup the private keys for each address with <1BTC.  No addresses would have more than, I dunno, 0.7BTC and all slightly different.  But there would be a spreadsheet, created on an airgapped laptop, that was GPG encrypted that held those individual keys... You know... In case.  I would have created detailed instructions on how to access all these Bitcoin (1. With hardware wallets, 2. With Seed Phrases and passwords 3. With individual private keys in the worst case scenario), and trained my wife, and eldest child on the procedure.

But I do not have that sort of Bitcoin stash, so I just hold what I have on Coinbase.

Plus if i DID have that sort of stash?? All those details up there?  Different than what I (would) have really done.

Or not?

Nevermind...
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June 25, 2022, 11:51:22 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

If/when Bitcoin gets real privacy, I expect that it will also embrace “selective disclosure”.  That would preserve irrevocable, undeniable, irrefutable blockchain information for legitimate use cases—while locking out the prying eyes of hackers, cyberstalkers, armed robbers, kidnappers seeking ransom, and commercial espionage that seeks to infer competitive business plans from financial transaction data.
Isn't the blockchain information irrevocable, undeniable and irrefutable because, from the way I know it, these attributes and the confirmation that follows broadcasted transactions are the ways in which the chains are ensured of security.

Speaking of selective disclosure, is that really going to be a plus to the blockchain technology?
You know, the only way for transactions not getting counterfeiters is the verifiable nature of the blocks. I'm not very deep into this stuff so, if am getting it wrong at some point, am happy to be corrected.
With these kidnappers, rubbers and others not knowing who is behind an address what matters to a selective disclosure?

We don't want or need undetectable btc in this world.

We need btc that can be hidden until you need to cash it.

 

Without agreeing or disagreeing, what is the difference between these two apparantly contradictory statements...aka "hidden" and "undetectable".
To me, "hidden" is being temporarily undetectable. Isn't it?

no it is fully detectable ie here is an address


https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/1BmZSqwX7GivA88FdqupyVRedzRRPE3chr


it moved coins and very likely the gov knows the actual owner.

and here is another address.

3MR9bkqFVX1f1QxutMu55J3VcvAESEw1Yd

no coin in it and the owner of it is hidden


but its existence is not undetectable.


hiding a virgin address is no big deal.

hiding an address owner and mining on an anyonomus pool will create a detectable amount of coin.

but no issue until you cash it out. if we make cash out impossible to detect the world governments will go after btc like mad.

the idea I can mine 100 usd worth of btc to an address no one knows the owner  is fine the governments clock these addresses and can go after you when you cash it.

but if I mine 100 a day on nicehash to a safe address and move out of my country .

(USA) it is likely I will beat the Gov.the money.

In my case my pension and my wife pension is all fed usa paid. so If I run from USA with "hidden BTC" then show it in a tax free country the USA will assess me a tax and confiscate our fed pensions.

I would need 200-300 btc to consider burning my USA citizenship. They don't worry about escape accounts for most of their citizens . As the escape account needs to be huge to be worth it.

Not many people have 200-300 btc in ownership hidden wallets.

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June 25, 2022, 11:57:25 PM
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[...]  But I would also backup the private keys for each address with <1BTC.  [...]  I would have created detailed instructions on how to access all these Bitcoin (1. With hardware wallets, 2. With Seed Phrases and passwords 3. With individual private keys in the worst case scenario), and trained my wife, and eldest child on the procedure.

BIP 32 was invented for this reason.  It is the default for Bitcoin Core wallets, for this reason.  It is the standard of all reputable wallets, for this reason; and any decent wallet software will let you create new wallets on custom derivation paths.  (If a wallet does not support custom derivation paths, then it is trash.)

You do not need to back up private keys individually!  One seed backup suffices to back up a whole tree of hierarchical accounts.  Unlimited wallets.

This is a safety issue.  For the same reason that keypools are hazardous and harmful.  Multiplying the number of things that you need to back up tends to result in loss of funds, sooner or later.

That’s a basic safety feature; BIP 32 was developed after it was discovered that, in the nitty-gritty real world, keypools are a money-destroying misfeature.
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June 26, 2022, 12:14:47 AM

but no issue until you cash it out. if we make cash out impossible to detect the world governments will go after btc like mad.

Something is wrong here.  Why do you speak of “cashing out” in the context of mining?

Mining is only an indirect way to cash out your central bank shitcoins to money, i.e. Bitcoin:  Pay electricity costs directly in $hitcoins, receive money in the “Be Your Own Bank” bank.  But it is not as anonymous as you suppose:  High electricity usage is very difficult to conceal.  Many people attempting to hide activities with high electric draw (e.g., clandestine indoor marijuana growing) have been caught this way.

If you have anonymous dollars, there are more private ways to cash out to Bitcoin.
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June 26, 2022, 12:31:16 AM

but no issue until you cash it out. if we make cash out impossible to detect the world governments will go after btc like mad.

Something is wrong here.  Why do you speak of “cashing out” in the context of mining?

Mining is only an indirect way to cash out your central bank shitcoins to money, i.e. Bitcoin:  Pay electricity costs directly in $hitcoins, receive money in the “Be Your Own Bank” bank.  But it is not as anonymous as you suppose:  High electricity usage is very difficult to conceal.  Many people attempting to hide activities with high electric draw (e.g., clandestine indoor marijuana growing) have been caught this way.

If you have anonymous dollars, there are more private ways to cash out to Bitcoin.

I am not looking to do a 1000 word set of instructions to teach some one how to mine btc into an ownership hidden account.

Sufice to say it is not that hard to do. Plus you do not need to use a ton of power in order to do it.

All the 'man' will see is an address that grows about 10 bucks a day. Ownership is hidden and power used is not that much.
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June 26, 2022, 12:55:47 AM

Sufice to say it is not that hard to do. [...]

All the 'man' will see is an address that grows about 10 bucks a day. [...]

You missed my sarcasm over your use of the term “cashing out”.

Bitcoin wins when people stop talking about “cashing out from BTC to $”, and start talking about cashing out to Bitcoin.  Flip the script!



You seem to have ignored my point that Zcash is well-supported by regulated exchanges, and top-10 coins such as Ethereum and Solana have (or are getting) strong (“untraceable”) privacy systems.

death wish is his own worse enemy.  We don't want or need undetectable btc in this world.
[...]
if death wish got his way and made btc untraceable it would be a target for all governments.

So I can get my way with Zcash, Ethereum, Solana, et al., but not with Bitcoin?  Why do you treat Bitcoin as the weakest coin?
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June 26, 2022, 02:12:49 AM
Last edit: June 26, 2022, 04:52:36 AM by death_wish
Merited by nanobtc (2), JayJuanGee (1)

This will get way too long if I do not focus on some short portions of your post:

If/when Bitcoin gets real privacy, I expect that it will also embrace “selective disclosure”.  That would preserve irrevocable, undeniable, irrefutable blockchain information for legitimate use cases—while locking out the prying eyes of hackers, cyberstalkers, armed robbers, kidnappers seeking ransom, and commercial espionage that seeks to infer competitive business plans from financial transaction data.

I am a little bit surprised that you did not put governments into your above list.  Don't get me wrong, I am not anti-government [...]

I intentionally omitted governments.  Selective disclosure systems are a foolish way for individuals to hide money from the government—unless you are also strongly anonymous.

To illustrate how a future Bitcoin with strong privacy may work, you can try an experiment right now, if you are willing to try altcoins:

Go to Gemini (or if you’re in Europe: The Rock Trading).  Buy ZEC.  Do a shielding withdraw.  Tyler Winklevoss is an outspoken advocate for strong privacy.  Congrats, your money is now 100% invisible to the public.  Snoops, spies, and random miscreants cannot use Zcash blockchain data to track how much ZEC you are accumulating.

Now, try to use your ZEC wallet to hide money from the tax man, or to engage in some sort of criminal activity.  Oh, fork!  Gemini has your KYC dox.

The moment that the government becomes suspicious of you for whatever reason, they will apply some legal process to obtain your Gemini records.  Then, cops or alphabet-soup will knock on your door, badge in one hand and gun in the other, and demand from you your view keys.  At that point, being stubborn about keeping your view keys secret seems to me like a very good way to go straight to prison.

(This is NOT legal advice.  I am simply discussing my opinion of an entirely hypothetical scenario.)

I expect that in practice, a Bitcoin with strong privacy would work the same way.

Gauging by his attitude toward Zcash, it is reasonable to expect that Tyler Winklevoss would probably love to see that.  So would many other big Bitcoiners.

Satoshi himself wanted such a thing:

This is a very interesting topic.  If a solution was found, a much better, easier, more convenient implementation of Bitcoin would be possible.

[...]

It's hard to think of how to apply zero-knowledge-proofs in this case.

Satoshi wrote those words 3–4 years before the Zerocoin for Bitcoin proposal, cryptographic research breakthroughs which ultimately made such a thing more practical, and an attempt to apply those breakthroughs to Bitcoin.  Satoshi wrote those words 8 years before, in my opinion, ZK proof coins started to become minimally viable for mass adoption (Zcash Sapling, 2018)—12 years before now, in 2022, I declare the technology mature for mass adoption:  Halo2, which is totally trustless (no “trusted setup”!), high-performance, and open-source so it can be reused without re-inventing the wheel.  [Edit:  Some corrections were made and links were added to this paragraph, which was originally based only on my admittedly fuzzy recollections of how I watched Zerocoin, Zerocash, etc. unfold at the time.]

But even a zero-knowledge version of Bitcoin would not much help you hide money from the government—as long as the government trivially knows who you are and where to find you.

Unless you love huge risks of going to prison, the only way to use cryptocurrency to hide money from the government is if you are anonymous—in practice, if you have never, ever done exchange KYC even once.  How many Bitcoiners do you know who have never, ever done exchange KYC even once?

After Satoshi himself, how many Bitcoiners have even tried to be strongly anonymous?  Some.  Very few.  For better or for worse (I think for much worse), they are negligible and marginal.

I am totally against KYC.  But that is a distinct, albeit overlapping issue.

The issue here is that with selective disclosure systems, a targeted investigation can coerce you to hand over your view keys.  Nonetheless, you are protected from hackers, cyberstalkers, armed robbers, kidnappers seeking ransom, and commercial espionage.

Why does Phil love hackers, cyberstalkers, armed robbers, kidnappers seeking ransom, and commercial espionage?

[...] because sometimes governments do have reasons to get involved in compiling information generally and sometimes they also have legitimate reasons to get into specifics and including some personal information matters, and sometimes their getting involved in compiling, composing and even snooping on citizens does have some legitimate public interest purposes.. but at the same time, we have seen that some of the governmental departments have become abusive with their access to some of the various kinds of private information.. and for sure, these are ever evolving lines in terms of how the internet contributes to a lot of free flow of information and disinformation too.. but then sometimes governments are not even always playing fairly with their attempts to engage in oversight or maybe even refrain from employing their own disinformation tactics..

The system that I advocate does stop dragnet mass-surveillance by governments.  I guess that’s probably why Snowden loves this type of system.  (Don’t forget that Snowden himself started his career as a U.S. Army man, then worked for the CIA, then worked a contractor for the NSA:  He is not anti-government, but is conscionably opposed to abuses by governments.)

As it stands, the Bitcoin blockchain is like putting a completely public webcam in your bedroom to make sure that you’re not doing anything bad.  Not even a webcam that is wired to police headquarters, which is my usual metaphor for mass-surveillance:  A public webcam, which anonymous criminals can view anytime they want!

A strongly-private Bitcoin with selective disclosure would give you privacy similar to what you physically have in your home.

If you do something illegal in your home, then the police can obtain a search warrant.  They can come into your home, and look through your stuff.  If necessary, they can kick down your door with guns drawn.  I am not stating my opinion of that either way:  I am stating a fact, which is pretty much just a fact of life.  In what most people would deem reasonable jurisdictions, the police need a search warrant based on probable cause.

If you do something illegal with a strongly-private Bitcoin, then the police will demand your view keys.  Good luck refusing them.

A strongly-private Bitcoin would stop law enforcers from scanning and analyzing everybody’s blockchain finances, on the presumption that everybody is guilty until proved innocent.  That’s like stopping the police (or the NSA) from mass-tapping everybody’s phone calls, emails, and websurfing.

A strongly-private Bitcoin would also have perfect fungibility.  And it would probably put Chainalysis out of business, or at least force them to find a non-scumbag business model.  And it would probably make Mike Hearn cry.  The whole toxic notion of “coin taint” would be dead forever.

There are no downsides to this! Smiley
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June 26, 2022, 02:19:31 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Multiplying the number of things that you need to back up tends to result in loss of funds, sooner or later.


Not when the backups are redundant.  You can question the security value of my plan, but it will NOT make it more likely to fail.
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June 26, 2022, 03:24:39 AM

Bitcoin will get to $250K “by late 2022 or early 2023" says Tim Draper.

Bullshit.
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June 26, 2022, 03:29:27 AM
Last edit: June 26, 2022, 03:45:24 AM by death_wish

[...]
This is a very interesting topic.  If a solution was found, a much better, easier, more convenient implementation of Bitcoin would be possible.

[...]

It's hard to think of how to apply zero-knowledge-proofs in this case.

Satoshi wanted to make Bitcoin untraceable.  He just didn’t know how.  Bitcoin would soon inspire cryptographic research advances to solve that problem.

ZCASH is a fucking trusted setup

Your are ill-informed.  The trusted setup is dead.  Gone with Halo2.  Zcash’s Orchard shielded value pool, activated on mainnet in May 2022, has no trusted setup!

That is one of several major reasons why I declare the technology now “mature”:  No more trusted setup.  I put up with the trusted setup in Zcash myself, from its beginning until 2022; but I disliked it.  I would not want to bring it to Bitcoin.  The Zcash team also disliked it—actually, they hated it!  Therefore, they spent years working on improved cryptography to get rid of it forever.

RIP trusted setup—not “requiescat in pace”, but rather, “rest in pieces”—you will not be missed.

dev tax abomination.  As usual the "leaders" in crypto are fucktards.

Irrelevant and off-topic.  I am not promoting Zcash here.  I am promoting zero-knowledge proof privacy for Bitcoin.  A Bitcoin with zero-knowledge proof privacy would not have the “dev tax”, and would not have the same leadership as Zcash.  It would be Bitcoin.  A Bitcoin with the very best privacy technology that has yet been invented.

Satoshi wished for zero-knowledge proofs:  See the above Satoshi quote, and click through to that thread from 2010.  Zerocash was invented for Bitcoin in 2013, but it was impractical.  Now, technological advances have changed the situation:  We can do today what could not be done in 2010, or in 2013; and the technology is now mature.

But I would be willing to bet QUITE A BIT that the Winklevoss assholes are financially incentivized to support the ZCASH garbage THANKS TO THE dev tax.

That’s an accusation.  Have any evidence?

I know that the “crypto” industry is corrupt as hell, and many if not most Twitter “crypto influencers” are taking payola under the table.  But I really do not think that Tyler Winklevoss needs shitcoin-shill payola to make tweets.  In case you didn’t notice, he has more BTC than you do—and BTC is a pretty good investment.

Maybe he actually believes in privacy as a matter of principle.  Do you consider that?  (What’s next?  Will you accuse Snowden of taking payola for his opinions, after the man risked his life and fled halfway around the world to fight for privacy?  Snowden loves Zcash.)

Moreover, I omitted the current-events context of the @Tyler’s tweet in January 2021:  Zcash had just been delisted by some idiotic third-rate exchange amidst a media FUDstorm about “ooh, untraceable money”.  Tyler Winklevoss stood up on Twitter to declare his and Gemini’s support for Zcash, to defy all of the anti-privacy nonsense.  Click through and read the Twitter thread, where this is mentioned by others.  I think it was also at that time that Gemini started supporting Zcash shielding withdrawals, to defy the FUD—though I’m not sure; I do not use Gemini, or any other KYC exchange.

This is why I will avoid an account at Gemini until there is no other option.

I do not, and would not use Gemini myself, even if I potentially could (not saying where I live):  They are a very strictly ultra-KYC exchange.  I refuse all KYC.

I think you entirely missed my point, or perhaps are determined not to see it.

Privacy on BITCOIN layer 2 will CRUSH Zcash in the end.  (I will save what I think crushes that even more for another thread...)

Privacy on Layer 2 does not and cannot fix a lack of privacy on Layer 1.

Given your lack of awareness of anything about Zcash (still thinking it has the trusted setup, etc.), I doubt you know of anything that could crush it.  (And why the hell would you want to crush it?  Why would you hate it so?)  But if it makes you feel any better, I am afraid that the project is committing suicide:  They want to swallow the POS poison.  If that is not stopped—if they do not stay POW...  As a Zcasher since Sprout (Zcash is #2 to me after Bitcoin), I am very upset and deeply pessimistic about this.

But if you really want to “CRUSH Zcash”, here is an idea:  Join me in campaigning to copy their technology for Bitcoin!  How could they even survive, if Bitcoin had privacy just as good as theirs? Undecided
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June 26, 2022, 03:40:29 AM

Bitcoin will get to $250K “by late 2022 or early 2023" says Tim Draper.

Bullshit.

I don't know if they were daydreaming. Of course, BTC can potentially go $250K or more in the future. That doesn't mean it will Boom in a few months. LOL.

Thor: Impossible,

Hela: You don't know what is possible, Darling!
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June 26, 2022, 04:09:34 AM

High electricity usage is very difficult to conceal.  Many people attempting to hide activities with high electric draw (e.g., clandestine indoor marijuana growing) have been caught this way.

The growers that got caught were stealing electricity, or not paying for it. The growers that pay for electricity, and pay the power company, the power company usually doesn't mind them since they are paying.

The big grower that was caught before, was not paying for electricity and the power company decided to investigate why there was a large consumption in a certain area and why they were not getting paid. So ... they caught the grow operation.
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I don't know if they were daydreaming. Of course, BTC can potentially go $250K or more in the future. That doesn't mean it will Boom in a few months. LOL.

Eventually, sure. And probably sooner than most would think. We're in the doldrums for at least another year though, I think. Healing is needed, bad memories need to fade, confidence needs to return.
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