Entering a trade is easy… what is difficult is when to get out.

If you are in a losing trade it’s best to get out ASAP before it turns into a huge loss. If you are in a winning trade however it’s different because if you get out as soon as you get a little profit and you don’t let it run then you are hurting yourself because if in the future you run into a trade that is a loss then it’ll wipe all your previous earnings. So some trades you just need to let them run. Taking profits too early is never a good idea.

So I guess I am just experiencing 2018 PTSD. Seems like many like me were also cautious when we reached $14K and $20K last year and we all assumed it would be the peak and it obviously wasn’t.

What are you guys expecting what will happen when the Mt Gox coins are released to the owners? Anyone got any idea when that will happen, if ever. I’m assuming that most will sell at least a little maybe not their entire balance. I mean the exchange went down when BTC was like $700 and now it’s almost 100x that. Even if they get 1/3rd of their previous coins it’s still a huge gain.

Another thing i've been noticing lately is that there is a high rate of scams going on in crypto these days just like in 2017 with scam ICOs and Ponzi scams like Bitconnect. Sure they don't affect BTC directly but its a sign that things are getting out of control.

Today on twitter there was a girl who had like 30K followers. Some devs contacted her to shill some token they were going to create. I think it was called something like "Islaboi" which was referring to those 2 boy wannabe rappers that you see all over crypto twitter.

Long story short, she was a scammer who scammed some scammers pretty much. She rugged the token because they gave her too much of total supply, making it worthless. I think those devs wanted to rug pull it higher but she beat them to it pretty much. She posted some excuse saying that 20 ETH was just too good to pass up and "don't be mad at me" and guess what, a few hours later, she is trying to pull some NFT scam. If you are bored you can search for her on twitter her nickname is something like moon_gurl.

Seems like a repeat of the scammy ICO projects which were launching in late 2017, very lame project but people were so desperate to make a profit they threw money at anything heading their way. This seems to be happening now with meme tokens and NFTs.

I don’t think in trading it’s good to follow this rule. If you do you will be missing out on many great trades especially if you are trading crypto.

There are times like right now when it’s very easy to trade. Many coins are only going up, many meme coins are providing great gains. If you have 1 good trade and quit then you will miss out on many other opportunities.

It’s best to quit trading for a day or week if you are having a horrible week and get tons of losses in a row. Then you should step away before you go full tilt and lose all your trading capital.

ETH broke its ATH today and it looks like it might be another false breakout type of play. It’s already under the old ATH figure. Going into the weekend we will see how it plays out however it seems like the weekly will close under the old ATH.

So if ETH which is the 2nd largest coin closes under, it will become more suspicious because it’s starting to look bad with all these weak breaks. Seems someone out there is selling a lot of coins to keep the prices of BTC and ETH surpressed since they can’t stay above their old ATH.

It would of been better if all the meme coins were POW based because at least there wouldn’t be one party that owns a large percentage of the float. With many of these scam tokens there is usually someone who owns like 5% and eventually starts rugging and the token becomes useless. There was probably hundreds of Defi token where the owner rugged the coin and it became useless.

With POW it would be more fair if there was no premine, miners can dump but the supply would be low. It would be less scam prone however like the above poster said the people that make these scams only care about getting the money themselves.

Looks like 0.00009000 might of been the peak. Hard to say what will happen now. The reason why I don’t think it will pump more is because the funding is back down. When it was in the 6000 range and pumped to 9000 it was mostly due to the large amount of shorts, when it broke 6000 most covered at a huge loss.

How is there more fuel to keep the rally going? I don’t think the retail people will have enough buying power to make it go higher, especially since there is nobody left to short.

Plus doge is pumping instead and now ETH is pumping. So it seems the whales might be out of Shiba already.

Honestly I think it’s becoming more like 2017 with ICOs where people were making crazy money for months on ICOs and later on those who started to invest in ICOs late were burnt. I see the same happening with new doge or cat meme coins.

People will invest because they want a repeat of Doge or Shiba and they will end up losing 90% of their money on an illiquid asset. I think we are nearing the end of these meme coins and NFTs which are pumping like crazy.

However I might be wrong.

There actually was a time a few years ago when ETH almost reached bitcoins market cap, came very close. It was mostly due to there being a disagreement with Segwit where some pool didn’t want to signal for segwit and it’s future looked bad. And Ethereum at the time was getting traction.

And it inches closer and closer however it never actually exceeded its market cap but came close by a few %s. So it’s possible that ETH or some other alt coin can have a higher market cap however not anytime soon.

BTC is still the most reliable and safest way to send money around.

I’m starting to get deja vu to late 2017 early 2018. Makes me nervous about the BTC and ETH topping soon.

1) We got 2 doge meme coins which have a top10 market cap. We thought that Doge pumping to almost $1 was nuts but now we got that Shiba coin overtaking doges market cap. People are calling for $1 Shiba which would be what? In the trillions or quadrillion of dollars of market cap.

2) Some guy on Twitter posted a photo of his Uber driver who was trading and driving at the same time. He was up like 30% on his portfolio trading Shiba.

3) We got Wolf of Wall Street who said Bitcoin is a scam who bought some NFTs. Didn’t think he was allowed to trade anymore.

4) We got Jason Bourne (Matt Damon) making Crypto . Com commercials with a “fortune favors the brave” which seems more like telling people to “invest your hard earned money in sh!tcoins”.

5) Coin base is #1 app on App Store and Crypto.com is somewhere in the top5

6) El Salvador president is buying "420" BTC. Why not 400 or 450 ?

7) Snoop Dogg having a NFT as his Twitter avatar

8 ) Kardashians promoting some scam coin

9) Some other rapper pumping some coin and then doing a massive rugging.

10) People quitting their jobs to become "full time crypto traders"

I still think BTC might break ATH again because where is all this NFT and Doge profits going to go? Into stable coins? Sure but first they might go into Bitcoin and Ethereum first since many are trading DeFI and sell into ETH first. I don't want to be a bear but I just don't see the $100-250K happening, at least in the near term or in this cycle. I think we might top somewhere in the $70-80K particulary at $74K which is the Fib Extension or where AUD/CAD currencies are near $100,000.

The scenarios I see are as follows.

Whales Pumping Doge Coins Sell -> Cause Massive loses for retail traders -> Retail Traders panic and sell everything including Bitcoin -> Bitcoin dumps -> Whales buy Bitcoin dip and Pump it later.

OR

Whales Pumping Doge Coins Sell -> They buy ETH and BTC -> Alts get Dumped, BTC gets Pumped -> Whales sell their ETH and BTC for Tether/Fiat -> Cycle repeats 4 years later.

From what I heard, there most likely won’t be shortages of gifts on Christmas from retailers which everyone is expecting due to the cargo ship container delays. People are panicking and buying gifts now because they are worried that the shelves will be empty on Christmas shopping season. Some items might be sold out like PS5 but most items will be available.

Basically retailers prepared for this in advance and they are basically paying a premium to get their container ships delivered on time. One tire company did this and they basically had to pay $25000 extra to get the tires delivered. And what they did instead is just add the cost to the consumer. So basically there will be tires but $30 surcharge for all of them.

With retail it will be the same. There will be gifts but if they had to be imported there will be a mark up most likely and people will still pay it.

I also had tons of Doge which I bought at like 15-20 sats which if you load the Bittrex or Poloniex chart is the strong support area and guess where I sold it? Some at 50 sats and rest before it hit 100 sats. Then later on word got out that Elon was interested in the coin.

Most of the early adopters all said the same thing that doge is not worth a price of $0.25 or $0.50 or $0.75 because there isn’t much development going around. It doesn’t make sense for it to go to $1 yet it almost did.

All due to the money which all the wall street bets and tik tokens were dumping on the coin. And back in May when Elon did that SNL episode people were saying that Doge is going to hit $5 or $10.

Crazy times.

Today was a crazy crazy trading day. I hope some of you made decent profits on all these huge Shiba moves. When it overtook doge in market cap and trading volumes greater than ETH, it was sure one crazy experience.

The last break was guaranteed, the funding was basically all geared towards shorts holding a huge loss, however the funding is starting to stabilize and I think it might of been the top. It’s a great short area however you really need to use stops because it can easily double or triple in value. Crazy amount of money pouring into this coin and tons of shorts which will need to cover.

Yes this is a false break out. Generally when this happens it bearish. However I don’t want to sell everything just yet in case next week it attempts another run. The biggest bearish case was when we got those large wicks on those exchanges.

When this happens the market usually goes that way. The reason why is because there was a lack of bid liquidity. Some large players got out, not enough bids and hence these crazy wicks on multiple exchanges.

There was over $1B people that bought BTC on the new futures ETF and they are all sitting at a loss. So if we retest the old ATH it will be very difficult to break on the first try.

It’s hard to say which way we will go. On one hand it’s good that we broke ATH however the break was very weak. Usually when we break ATH we surge 20% in a day or so. Clearly this isn’t the case right now.

We also are almost down $10K from the highs and the bounces are week. I think we might go all the way down to $53k which is the pivot that we made last month. That has a better chance of holding and we might retest ATH again and if we don’t break it then, it’s most likely the top for a while.

One thing to keep in mind. While the bear market usually has a lower difficulty it’s not by much. Even by Bitcoin standards the hashrate rarely decreased. There were periods where the market went up exponentially and then bear market started and mining difficulty slightly decreased and a few months later started increasing again.

Another issue is that usually in a bear market you can save yourself the hassle and buy the coin directly because you are either mining at break even or at a loss. So you would be better off selling that electricity to the grid and just buy it directly.

If you guys use the BTC ETF as a guide you can see that in the first 2 days the AUM was over
$1.1B and the next day it wasn’t changed and checking today again it went up to $1.2B. So it seems the FOMO was only for those 2 days.

So it seems that the people who wanted to FOMO into crypto already did. So we will see how this week ends up, however if we don’t break ATH this week and close under the ATH on the weekly then I can see a sell off starting because all the holders that bought in the $28-64K area are going to panic and start to sell. Especially if we are near the top like this.

Right now we need to see how Bitcoin will behave when it touches the previous ATH of $65K. Currently there are many longs in that area that are trapped. If we engulf 65K then I would be very surprised if we don’t break ATH again.

However if we fail to close $65K then we can retest the $60K low that formed on the weekend and if we breach it then support is at $50K. However lots of positive news came out today so it’s looking good however on the first sign of weakness I will be looking to hedge.

Yeah Cloud Mining was the worst.

I had so many friends fall for that scam. They said "Dude its 10GH/s forever, I will always be mining bitcoins". However they clearly didn't read their terms and on their terms it states that the hashrate is guaranteed as long as its more than the maintenance cost. The maintenance cost is electricity plus some handling and service from time to time.

Generally these contract last for many a year or even less than a year due to how fast bitcoin ASICs become extinct. I remember we would always get a bunch of people going to bitcointalk to complain how they got scammed with cloud mining contracts when they clearly didn't read the fine print.

Weekend trading can vary depending on how active the markets are. Right now since we broke ATH last week I would be careful about fading any weekend moves. What that means is that say out of the blue we get some large pump, don’t short that pump. Might be a real move.

However usually in the past, especially in the summer we would get some pump or dump on the weekend at a strange hour and usually most of the time the moves would fade. Basically people chased the move and ended up buying the top or selling the bottom and it went back into the range.