I don't know what price ETH might hit, however I have a feeling that ETHBTC will hit something like 0.10 ETHBTC and then it'll start to tank. When it starts to tank all the money will flow back into BTC and then BTC might top out at like $50-55K or so.

Lately too many people are getting bullish and thinking we are going to get $10K ETH and $250K BTC. Most likely somewhere in the $50-55K area we might get a failed high and then we will consolidate before heading lower. I have a feeling that Saylor guy is going to start taking profits in that area since he almost lost his shirt last time it hit $28K.

Could be and want to be wrong however I still think we might revisit $20K one day, even a little lower. And ultimate buy will be at 200 WMA which is like $14K-15K or so. Everybody will want to buy BTC at $64K but nobody will want to buy at $15K.

Since the heat was high as soon as you turned it on, means the PSU was delivering the wrong voltage. Basically something like 6-9Volts instead of 12V and the components needed to compensate and ended up using 50-100% more current, hence why it was so hot to the touch.

If you are getting artifcats then you blew something up. Sometimes you can use a card that artifacts with mining only because you dont need display like a gamer, however if it crashes instantly then its not a display issue. Its too bad because its an expensive GPU and most likely you are way past the warranty. In the future don't use cheap or very old PSUs.

There are many issues such as,

When will you get it delivered? Sometimes it can take months to get delivery AFTER you make payment. With what is going on now with the markets ETH by then can either be $5000 a coin or $500. Very difficult to predict this.

Also, this ASIC has over 3GHs, which is tons of power. How many do you think they will produce in total. Look at,
https://etherscan.io/chart/hashrate

Difficulty is rising VERY fast after the China ban.

Another issue is warranty. If it breaks, they will warranty it. However you will need to wait weeks/months and you won't get compensated for downtime.

I think the target will be anywhere from $46.5-$50K. Reason why is because it'll be in between the fibs from the ATH to local low, the 0.50-0.618 are good indicators in past bear markets.

Another reason is that there are tons of people bag holding in the $55K region. I think it will be difficult to push from there. So many will want breakeven and there will be lots of sell pressure. And I think that many people when they see $50-$55k they automatically assume new ATH and might be a bull trap.

I've been wrong before but this is just my guess. I would like ATH and all however I think the perfect time to sell will be when people start posting photos of lazer eyes again like in the past.

Because instutional investors usually are large whales. Most retail people can invest what? Maybe $50K maybe $100K if they are lucky to hold that sums. Most however invest less. So they don't really have a large effect on price. Institutions usually can have billions of dollars under their care and they can move markets.

Its not only in Bitcoin or crypto. If there is some large investor like Warren Buffet and he is buying some low/middle cap stock? Everybody will also want in on that stock as long as he's buying. Because he can buy enough to move price to a point where you can make a decent profit.

Then it opens the door to IRAs and ETFs which is what everybody wants. Which means more and more money can flow into crypto. So more money flowing in... means higher market cap and higher prices and more liquidity.

I think we have our confirmation that $30K (or $28K) was the low. My local top was $41-42K however looks like we broke it with huge volume and we should be going into the high $40k's and maybe $50k's. However does this mean we make a new ATH? Its hard to say.

There are tons of people who are holding BTC bags at $55K or so, most likely they will want to sell at breakeven when price gets there. Then there is the crypto regulation that we are still dealing with.

I say there is a 50/50 chance we break ATH this year. I think if we get back to like $50-55K it should be time to take some partial profits incase its a failed high and goes back down to $30K.

First of all which ETH ASIC are you talking about? The old Bitmain Antminer E3? That one you can't mine ETH anymore because the physical memory is only 4 GB. You can make ETC with it or some other coins with the Daggerhashimoto algo however you make almost nothing these days.

The other ETH ASICs which have enough memory are still very expensive. So if you can get it at a decent price then go for it however keep in mind that the future profitability is hard to predict. We had the London Upgrade and with the coin burn the fees are lower, then there is the price which is very volatile, then there is the difficulty which keeps going up due to new and more advanced ETH ASICs. So keep in mind there is always some risk.

If you want to see how the difficulty bomb worked in the past look at, https://etherscan.io/chart/blocktime

You can see that it got activated sometime in April 2017 and every few weeks kept increasing and increasing. The miners were coming online because price was going higher and higher however they still couldn't keep the blocktime near 15 seconds. So it kept increasing all the way up to 30 seconds in later 2017 until they finally did a hard fork and the block times were back to normal.

So as you can see its not instant but every 2 weeks or so, it increases the difficulty more and more and as time goes on, it goes up exponentially higher as you can see.

Sure they are tons of other POW coins out there that you can mind. But you are forgetting one thing. The daily supply is capped for all coins. This is why every coin has something called difficulty.

If ETC has total miner revenue $100,000 per day and there are 100,000 miners, each get $1/day. However. If ETH switches to POS then...

ETC total miner revenue is still $100,000 per day but now there are 10,000,000 miners and each gets $0.01/day.

No other POW coin (except BTC) comes close to miner revenue as ETH.

The difference in profitability will take a few days to find out how they are affected because a number of factors come into play.

For example, lately due to ETH surging and NFTs popularity the gas fees are higher. They used to be like 10 Gwei and now are usually at least >50 Gwei. So your profitability is higher however due to the coin burn, its slightly less.

Another issue is that it matters what the gas fees are. If they are crazy high like >150 Gwei the coin burn will have a larger affect than when they are smaller such as 10 Gwei. So you need to mine for a few weeks first and see how the profitability changes overall.

Are you good with Linux and all its commands? Its a completely different operating system from Windows which is mostly plug and play. In Linux its difficult installing your miner software or even configuring your OC settings.

So if you are not too technical your best bet is just to get some Linux distro like HiveOS. If you got like 4 GPUs, then I think its free and if you got more then it costs a couple of dollars per month. Its easy to use and makes the install a breeze.

You can also install it manually if you want however keep in mind that you will run into issues, especially with AMD gpus. So if you got a large farm, install the Linux the free method. Might take a few days to get everything set up. However if you only got 1 rig, save yourself the hassle and use HiveOS or something similar.

$0.50 is not that bad. In the bear market it was something like $0.25 or so per 30mh/s. And basically unless you had power <0.05c kwh you were mining at a loss. Tons of hash power went off the network and we assumed that more hashpower would continue to be unplugged leading to more difficulty reducing however the hashpower still stayed.

Which is proof that there are people with 0.05c kwh power because people were actually mining at those rates for months. This is why its very difficult for a home miner to compete with people who are living in countries with ultra cheap power or mining farms that got deals with power companies and get ultra cheap power rates.

Do not use a splitter where you split the 8 pin PCIe connector into 2 - 8 Pin PCIe, you are asking for trouble that way. Even if you properly undervolt, what will happen if one day due to some software bug, it reverts the voltage back to stock and you end up pulling more current than before. Very dangerious.

There are only 2 ways to do with this. You need to get one of those heavy duty server PSUs and make sure you got enough 8pin PCIe connectors. Another method is to use 2 psu on the same rig. Buy that Add2PSU adapter and make sure you don't mix any voltages together to prevent current from flowing into one PSU to another and you should be good.

Another method is just get another motherboard and run half of them on one rig instead of all 6.

Overclocking AMD cards are a pain in Linux even if you are good with computers.

The two easiest ways is to either use some linux distro like HiveOS which can make it simple to adjust your OC.

Another way is just mod your bios and you won't need to do a software OC. Just use atiwinflash and use any bios editor and change the clock speeds, memory speeds, voltages on there.

Then when you start mining, it should automatically use those clocks. Make sure you verify with a multimeter or some KillAWatt power reader to make sure the undervolt was applied however. I had issues in the past where it didn't want to undervolt properly. Cards were running hot and something wasn't right.

Usually these events are buy the rumor and sell the news. Usually there is a run up to the hard fork and makes a lot of people FOMO because they think the upgrades are something significant which will change ETH in a big way so they buy because they see price going up and don’t want to miss out.

Then the hard fork happens and usually price stalls and then starts to head back down again. I think this is what will most likely happen. We are still in Summer where volumes are low and I think we will keep ranging until perhaps September sometime.

So be careful longing ETH at these levels. Most likely the hard fork is already priced in. Less than 8 hours to go.

The only hard fork that will ever affect GPU demand will be the one where they finally go full PoS and cut off all GPU miners finally. However that won’t be for a number of years. The hard fork tomorrow includes a difficulty bomb extension till Dec 2021 and most likely it will get extended again most likely.

When ETH goes POS the demand shift will happen months before. Similar to how many miners who had 4GB cards upgraded to 8Gb in the 6 months prior to the actual shift. With POS it will be similar. Many will prepare for it in advance.

There are some people that are very bullish lately. Don't know if you guys follow options trading on Deribit but someone opened 2000 Calls with a $140000-$200000 options spread. Now for those that don't know. This is called a bull spread. What a bull spread does it makes the call option cheaper but limits the max amount of profit. So the $140K calls cost 0.02BTC while $200K calls cost 0.01BTC with year end expiry.

So somebody bought 2000 of the $140K calls for 0.02BTC and sold 2000 of the $200K calls for 0.01BTC. And their overall cost was 0.01BTC for the $140K calls. Now obviously bitcoin doesn't need to go to $140K+ for the option to make money, it just needs to start moving up way before year end and its premium will increase. So if BTC goes to like $50K in the next week, most likely this options premium will go up 50% or so.

Since 0.01BTC was the net cost, at $400 an contract, they spent $800,000 just to perform this trade. Wonder how it will pay off.

Most new traders don't like using stop losses because they always get hit and usually reverse right after. So alot of new traders just don't use them at all. Because sometimes it always goes to a loss and then break-even and then profit. The issue with not using a stop is you will eventually become a bad holder and long term investor and its never smart. Look at how bad some alts did hurting bear markets where they hit 99% loss or so. Hence you should always use a stop, if it gets hit then just widen it but always use a stop.

Most scalpers know where people put their stops and thats where they time their entries and exits. Usually at the daily high or low, or at some retested old support/resistance area and usually near round numbers like $40000 or $50000 or so. SO if you want to take advantage you should use this knowledge in your trading and make some profit out of it.

I never realised the Fib projection of 1.618 actually was strong support back in 2017 and this year. First time I've seen this on a chart. Very interesting. Could we be in this super cycle and go to like $150K or so, maybe. Who knows?

Keep in mind that there is always a chance that the right shoulder of the weekly chart could hold and we can still retest the $30K area, or even the last ATH of $20K or 200WMA which is like $14K or so.

People are very bullish right now however because they are thinking 2021 is a repeat of 2013 where we bottomed in July and will top out in Nov/Dec. And it'll break the $64K and stall out somewhere at the end of the year over $100K.

The large Chinese farms might be out of business but I am sure some of the small ones are still operational. However the fact that the difficulty is going up shouldn't be a big surprise. Those ASICs or GPUs were never destroyed. They were just relocated.

If a large mining farm was profitable, then its in their best interest to just relocate to a different country. There are many countries that would welcome their business to improve their economy. So the miners were shutdown.... and packaged up... and shipped to some other country. And there they were powered back up again.

People assumed this would take months but apparently they were quick and it only took a few weeks.