Found the exact reference I mention in my previous post. Here it is.
(snip....)
The underlying question, of course, is: How can smaller creatures - human, tunas, herrings and minnows - see it coming?
This is a huge, but probably unanswerable question. But it is one that anyone smart is always hoping to find the answer to. Markets are all about confidence and sentiment, so (sadly) there is no perfect answer, even though with hindsight patterns do repeat. But patterns can always be seen in the past and look obvious - seeing them coming again is not so easy. Like Elliot waves; it's always debatable 'which wave' we are in. For long-term trend prediction (the big turning points), I think indicators of irrational bullishness /bearishness are as good an indicator of anything a crash, or rise is coming - but this is unmeasurable mathematically. Short term - personally - I draw lines on charts endlessly, decide my favourite candle time scale and which MA to trade on and it usually 'helps' - but only enough to give me an edge. And it's an edge that works only if you work hard and spend a LOT of time on it. I did sell off 20% in Dec, which was as much as I dared to because it was enough to change my life significantly - and I didn't know what the tax situation in my country was likely to mean for what I took out (plus it was still going up!). I felt strongly we would probably correct, and I remembered 2013, so I took 'some' out. I advised members of my close family who had anything to do the same (they chose not to). I will say this: With trends (not short term trading), the only thing that has worked for me is two methodologies: 1. Gut feeling (along with mentally preparing to 'sell to too early, if it's enough money to make a difference') 2. Listening to Tera. Well, while you can't predict where in a given pattern we are at any given moment, you can use historical data to get a probability of certain patterns unfolding on different time scales. And to be profitable all it takes is to be right just over 50% of the time, which is something that isn't extremely difficult in inefficient markets. That does take a very specific toolset though, so it's not for everyone by default, although the required skills can be acquired by anyone. The problem is that figuring out the details takes a very long time, and humans are pretty dreadful when it comes to long-term planning. I think what d_eddie was quite reasonably asking was 'what can we learn so that can we see the big stuff coming in future', since most here did not. I use TA and in normal conditions I can trade with enough edge for it to work well enough to be worthwhile, after five years, I ought to have learned something - but I didn't know where the top was, and I am not totally certain BTC has bottomed out. To be really good, you need to sell all at the precise top, and then buy it back at the absolute bottom. I doubt anyone actually did. Perfection is not possible, but getting closer to it is a noble and sensible quest. |
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To be really good you just need to be better than the average trader. And for that you don't need to sell the exact top or buy the exact bottom. It's enough to stagger purchases and sales in proportions that depend on the probabilities of price increases/decreases by certain numbers. Finding the probabilities is the trick here, as well as averaging them out in a way that guarantees you a performance band in which your portfolio will fall with a given probability. Doing that requires an understanding of time series as well as the ability to process large amounts of data (beyond just the price charts) though.
Agreed, but why didn't we see the crash coming? If there was a pattern to predict that, not many here did. Did you know after it went up towards 20k that within a month or so it would hit 6K? I didn't. That's exactly what I would like to be able to figure out - partially, tentatively, doubtfully, of course. In another post, kurious said something to the effect "Exactness is not possible, but getting as close to it as we can is a noble art." I'm quoting from memory, words might be off. Well, that's exactly what I hope to do, and I'm asking for help from several points of view. The advanced conspiration theorist, the technical analyst, the macroeconomist, the street-wise long time exchange user. I'm none of that yet, but honing my gut feeling skills seems a worthy endeavour. |
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Who the fuck partially fills a limit order for 0.1 BTC and then goes away again?
This has happened to me quite frequently. You just happen to have your order at the reversing point. I think that it is good sign. Sometimes the remaining portion fo the order does end up getting filled, but frequently when an order gets partially filled, I get a kind of feeling of how much of a "genius" I am in terms of my order placement... sometimes, I cancel the remaining and sometimes I will just leave it and see if it later gets filled. If I leave it, then frequently, I will set a partial contrary order, just to cover myself on both and it becomes more fun, because I feel that I get an additional opportunity to make some extra money by setting another partial order on the other end and then just wait to see which one fills first. That part is like a game, and fun and generally profitable, no matter what. It happened to me too, and when it happens I feel like a genius too! I never set a partial contrary order though. Gotta try that, it must be fun playing wait and see which one fills first. Nice bit, JJG! |
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From now on there are only resistances ahead. The first one starts about here. Personally I'm positive that the bottom is in. If I'm right confidence should rise together with the price, and that may produce an upward avalanche.  For now the biggest resistance will be 7k € as, if you look à the chart (cant link it I'm on my smartphone), it was the price just before the bullrun. I predict a few day of stagnation at this point and then extra bullishness if we go through it. We're oscillating right around 7k€ indeed. If it breaks upward, there might be a nice weekend pump like the ones we had when Carolina was singing. |
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I am also almost exclusively following the Wall Observer thread. It is my first source for Bitcoin related news and sentiment. Besides, there are bits of interesting technical discussion at times, and of course a good 60% of totally irrelevant noise. I often wish I had more sMerit to give out.
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Useful info, vroom! There goes my last sMerit. I do hand out merit fairly quickly when I have some, but I prefer giving them out to nonlegends when possible :-) |
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Hardly relevant to BTC, but an interesting topic IMO. (snip)
How hard were they trying though? I recall reading a paper from one of the Ivy League universities that concluded that perfect pitch could not be learned in adulthood. And the argumentation, as well as the experiment itself, was lackluster to say the least.
Really hard. As in everything that can possibly be done within legal and ethical means. This is study time on google if that's not enough. Perfect pitch appears to be dependent on both a genetic trait and a development window. Nature and nurture. The genetic trait is probably present in something like 20% of the population. The window of opportunity for actually having perfect pitch during adulthood roughly coincides with the window for native language learning. Native speakers of tone languages (Chinese language/dialects, Thai etc) have a higher than average percentage of adults with perfect pitch. This is probably due to children being exposed to more-or-less fixed pitch sillables while that part of the brain is developing. There are several studies that come to similar conclusions. I've read a few (say, at least a couple). I can't be bothered to look them up, but big G can help. |
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I think a lot of these people bitching about scaling have never run a full node.
Surely, you mean a "full-validating, non-mining node wallet"? Asks our wordsmith colleague jbreher.  ^^^ FTFY. Just keepin' it real. XD Hmphh, inflexible over language, eh? I don't even keep a wallet on my node, but whatever. I ain't 'playing victim'. There is a wide gulf from permissionless innovation that you don't happen to care for, and outright lying in order to besmirch character.
I understood the first sentence, but I couldn't make sense of the second. Care to explain? |
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Interesting as predictions about the next phase are, it's an art for few. Masterluc himself is far sighted in his reach forward. I'd like to turn back with the not-so-few: what happened? This might help my future understanding of things. When is it the first time that one of us could have said "it's coming" - and how could they hope to convince at least a qualified majority? 8-monthly bubbles which burst in the "propellor correction" fashion I described. The pattern's always the same:  It's the 1-Week MACD histogram for Bitcoin/USD. The thing is, I've NEVER seen it go so deep on the very first bar before.  For me it lends credence to the idea that the market is being actively co-erced down to a pre-defined level by the same holders who hoovered up the coin on the way up. They may be playing both markets in concert (futures and cash). Toknormal's points scored with me. Are the two quoted views mutually exclusive, or can they add up into a coherent narrative? 8-month cycles, give or take 6 months. The give or take bit itches, of course. Why these irregular durations? Is the school (of whales) free to choose a random moment, or are they looking for a "go ahead" hint from external reality? Which kind of hint/help would they welcome? The underlying question, of course, is: How can smaller creatures - human, tunas, herrings and minnows - see it coming? |
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Will be nice to step away and focus on me for the rest of my unnatural life.
Soon.
Never imagined I would be dealing with this sort of existential angst with retirement mere weeks away...
I'm pretty sure sooner than you know, you'll say "never imagined the angst would be gone and forgotten so fast." Cheer up, Bob. You are one of the guys who made it. Be proud and learn to live it up, it needs training like any other art. |
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^+1 WOmerit to kurious  6k potential bottom? time to catch the train? Where is the train on the picture? Train? Which train? |
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Another "obvious" concept - but easy to forget - that many smart folks here have pointed out: for every seller there is a buyer, and vice versa. Someone's really loaded up with cheap coins at the expense of the weak hands.
Never forget - You only lose if you sell cheaper than you bought.
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To state the obvious:
Most of us have been hoping someone else would start buying.
The problem is simply that the majority of the market cash hasn’t been. Why would it when it’s on the way down?
However: Ultimately there is a price that is just too low and there will be more buyers than sellers. The market decides this, not our crossed fingers.
This is the truth. The price will eventually turn up, it must: but ‘when’ the bottom is in can truly only be known with hindsight.
If this is over, we must be thankful - because a slow bleed is worse than a sharper, faster one. Anyone who waited after Gox for a final bottom for over a year will remember the pain of this.
That said, we know in our soul these coins are really cheap, we just need to feel the market agrees, so we don’t buy before they’re cheaper still.
Once it is apparent the market has decided, we know the bottom is in and so we can BUY.
And BUY, we will.
A great way to put it. I've been buying like mad on the way down - perhaps too much, too early, but when she gets back up were she belongs it will be much less relevant. The thing is, in these bloody days, I didn't feel as much panic as I felt FOMO. |
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The floor is in. A certain family member just sold, the poor bastard.
Could be. Had someone I know swallow a 50% loss and leave. The problem of course is they aren’t coming back any time soon so where the fresh money will come from? From us, at least in part. Most of my fiat profit is straight from the clonecoin dump. Been waiting to see if I get richer in fiat or btc for a while now. I have learned that the best time to buy Bitcoin (or any asset really) is when no one else seems to want it and has completely forgotten about it. The relatively high volatility still tells me that we're not there yet. I agree totally! I ate up a lot of BTC on the way down, so my fiat reserves are a bit on the low side. But I'm starting to set aside some more, and I will get moar korn when the waters aren't muddy anymore. |
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It’s a short squeeze. Nothing more.
Not nearly enough yet. Need to hear the swishing sound. |
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2) You didn't have that punch magnet face as an avatar.
I'm just trying to raise awareness for bcash scam. I'm not doubting your good intentions. It's just that my fingers wouldn't follow through  |
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This pump&dump also shows another thing. Markets still can be manipulated by a few people. This is a good thing in some way. Shows us that we are still in early phase. When this is over, bitcoin will be like gold. No %80 down/ups in a week, nothing exciting, moving slowly as a turtle, boring as fuck. You should be glad that fun ain't over yet.  Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee Good point, mindrust. I'd merit it if 1) I had merit left to give out 2) You didn't have that punch magnet face as an avatar. |
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Remember, for every seller there is a buyer. So someone is buying cheap(er) coins.
Indeed. Much better to be on the buy side in moments like these. |
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I think that my maintenance stage has become more and more refined, but I don't think that my skills caused the refinement but instead the fortune of our most recent exorbitant price rise from $2,600 to $19,666... .. but yeah, we are back in the doldrums of $8k-ish, but did not stop me from feeling a certain level of comfort from maintenance refinement. When we get to $100k (assuming we do at some point - perhaps less than 5 years? perhaps?), then I will likely develop even a more "refined" perspective regarding the significance of maintenance.
I can't help imagining you as you build the phrase and deliver it in a rhythmic deep baritone with hints of Spanish accents. A cigar and your favorite drink are all the props needed for the scene. (lots of snip snip) Without conceding any truth of the matter asserted, perhaps reasonable claims can be made that money causes changes in the way each of us carries ourselves, whether in the real world or online? That does sound likely. But you haven't told me what your favorite drink for such a speech would be! |
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So masterluc was wrong ?
Starting to look that way Actually, 7.5k wasn't ruled out, but labeled as "less likely" (possibly, "much less likely" - not sure). Not to play devil's advocate, but how do you expect a Bulgarian fortune teller witch to speak in plain, unambiguous words? |
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