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441  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2015, 08:08:13 PM
Good amount of support at $280. I'm hoping for another rise today. Too much stability and bears start shorting again.
442  Economy / Economics / Re: Lyth0s' Economic Troubles Thread on: March 04, 2015, 06:43:50 AM
News 3/3/15

Fraud Comes to Apple Pay
Quote
Abraham said it’s not “an anomaly” to see fraud accounting for about 6% of Apple Pay transactions, compared to about 0.1% of transactions using a plastic card to swipe

--6% fraud rate is pretty high for something that is supposed to decrease fraud. Another area where bitcoin shines.

India Central Bank Cuts Interest Rate "Pre-Emptively" For Second Time In 2 Months
Quote
In a surprise move, the RBI just cut its main interest rates for the second time in two months, taking it from 6.75% to 6.50%, in what the central bank calls a “pre-emptive” policy move, but what is in reality merely a confirmation that so far in 2015 at least 20 central banks have lowered their interest rate.

--6.5% is still high (at least by USA standards), but still shows the continued downtrend of interest rates in the world economy



Buffett On Europe: Germany Must Stop Greek Dog Peeing On Its Carpet
Quote
Buffett compares Greece to a "dog peeing on the carpet" of Europe, suggesting Germany stop "rewarding behavior you want to get rid of."

--Buffet saying that Greece is like a dog peeing on Germany's carpet? The hell? He states he is in favor of Greece leaving the Euro.
--Also sounds like Buffet is in favor of the ECB breaking up due to different fiscial policies.


The deflation bogeyman

Quote
None of this might matter were it not for the fact that extremely low interest rates have fueled increased risk-taking by borrowers and yield-hungry lenders. The result has been a massive mispricing of financial assets. And that has created a growing risk of serious adverse effects on the real economy when monetary policy normalizes and asset prices correct.
--Massive mispricing of financial assets, enough said.
443  Economy / Economics / Re: Help me understand... on: March 04, 2015, 03:39:31 AM


First, when you make x10 less milk, FED will not destroy money, it is a one way ticket. They only print more and more, never destroy it, not because the economy can not shrink, just because they don't want to sell their assets in exchange for useless paper

And your second reasoning is quite right, the milk's price should be based on supply and demand, has nothing to do with FED's money supply. Changing the money supply will just affect milk's price, thus give wrong signal of milk's supply and demand, which usually first cause over production and over hiring, and then followed by a larger sell-off of over produced goods and lay-off

Correct. The price of milk should be based on the supply and demand of the milk. When you change the yardstick (the value of money) you completely disrupt the market's understanding of the supply and demand of milk because the price has changed in regards to the value of each dollar rather than the current value of milk.

So many people (including Lampchop) don't understand this very simple concept.
444  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2015, 03:32:42 AM
You guys think $1000 by end if the year Is possible Shocked

Absolutely.
I would not be so sure about that. Considered that bitcoin price was that high only for once in its lifetime and for really short period of time. I would be amused if bitcoin will hit $500 mark this year.

Prepare to be amused.

How many bag holders were created in 2014? I think there will be a lot of sell pressure once we start moving back up through the 300's, 400's, 500's etc.

If you've sat on the losses til now, the chances are you're in it for the long haul and the fear of missing out will be just as strong as before if it's blowing up.

Yep people that were uncomfortable with those losses have already sold. People are very emotional when it comes to investments and whether or not they are green or red short term. If they held on for > 50% reduction of their investment they are probably in this for the long run.
445  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2015, 03:29:37 AM
We should all stop selling for just 10 minutes and see what happens for shits and giggles.

Seriously though the largest growth keeps happening in single large 15 minute candles. Is this coincidence or is it perhaps 1 person accumulating large amounts of BTC over short periods of time and then letting the market re-equilibrate to not run up prices too fast?

say you are group of private equity that wanted to take a $50 mill position in BTC, how would you do it? (assume you managed to secure ~60% of that off the market already)

Well technically I would try to contact a large mining company and get an OTC deal with them to acquire the bitcoins. BUT that could potentially take a lot more work to setup and if a mining company decided to no longer sell for cheap OTC, then I'd have to take my business to the exchanges.

Maybe that's what has happened.....a few large OTC mining deals were stopped due to the coins being too low and now the miners would rather just hold them until the coin price gets bumped up to a more profitable level for them. Large buyer then flocks to the exchanges to slowly buy up the coins.

By the way you were pretty specific about a private equity wanting $50 million position in BTC, do you have any other specifics you'd like to share?

I don't believe that large miners operators can afford to just hodl for few months. In fact i don't believe in large mining farms operating without some contract in place already. Hey lets dump few mil in this run up thousands in electricity bills daily/weekly and we'll worry about how to liquidate our product (BTC) after.  Most likely all those coins are already spoken for for some duration of time. Things to consider if you want to open large position, you're not the only player scavenging miners for some coins so there's surely competition, the bigger the competition the more premium miners might want, you might want more volume than they can provide, or your contract with miners calls for premium of BFX*1.0X so miners turn around and just buy coins on market  Grin, etc, etc, etc... Now if you've exhausted all your other options and are left with buying on market with minimum slippage i'm guessing it'd look like what's happening right about now. Big buy let things settle put up some weak support, rinse and repeat. Until someone picks up on that and start going ape shit crazy on leverage to buy up coins so you don't get them

First time I heard of a megawatt mining operation I remember that some huge private equity business were backing all the costs and were even giving the lead mining operator a full 20% cut on the bitcoins mined. I think some of the super large mining operations are run by wealthy bulls who want to accumulate coins cheaper than buying them in bulk off the market and care very little about the operation cost as long as it is less than the market buy orders would be.

Otherwise who in their right mind would give the mining operator a 20% cut of all bitcoins mined if they were just looking to make USD profits?
446  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2015, 12:39:04 AM
We should all stop selling for just 10 minutes and see what happens for shits and giggles.

Seriously though the largest growth keeps happening in single large 15 minute candles. Is this coincidence or is it perhaps 1 person accumulating large amounts of BTC over short periods of time and then letting the market re-equilibrate to not run up prices too fast?

say you are group of private equity that wanted to take a $50 mill position in BTC, how would you do it? (assume you managed to secure ~60% of that off the market already)

Well technically I would try to contact a large mining company and get an OTC deal with them to acquire the bitcoins. BUT that could potentially take a lot more work to setup and if a mining company decided to no longer sell for cheap OTC, then I'd have to take my business to the exchanges.

Maybe that's what has happened.....a few large OTC mining deals were stopped due to the coins being too low and now the miners would rather just hold them until the coin price gets bumped up to a more profitable level for them. Large buyer then flocks to the exchanges to slowly buy up the coins.

By the way you were pretty specific about a private equity wanting $50 million position in BTC, do you have any other specifics you'd like to share?
447  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Android Pay. on: March 04, 2015, 12:35:06 AM
The current problem with Google wallets and Android Pay is that currently most service providers (IE ATT) have most of the NFC google wallet features disabled by default (unless rooted) due to having their own contracts with other NFC wallet ideas (IE Visa's PayWave). So either android users will have to buy their phone directly from google (no 3rd party controllers), root their phone or find a service provider that doesn't disable google's NFC payment system.

Or maybe we will get lucky and service providers will stop installing these NFC blocking controllers on people's phones Tongue
448  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: bitcoin on wall street journal font page on: March 04, 2015, 12:30:48 AM
I'd have to see the entire article, but....as these type of coverage usually goes, they mention BTC as the brand-name concept, then quickly move on to alts like ripple systems like MPESA, ideas like applepay and google wallet...

they will mention winklevii, and that other bitcoin fund that should appear on wall st. soon. they might mention VC money thats going into the economy.

its all pretty light news, and if you read this forum, old news too.

the takeaway from these sort of articles is usually; some form of digital payments system is coming, they all have problems right now, but bigger players are making serious moves, wait a few years and you will see which one comes out on top.

they say "bitcoin" in the headline to grab your attention, appeal to the curious, but they rarely endorse bitcoin itself.

that's just been my experience of reading mainstream news articles on the subject. I cant read that imigur so i dont know what this one says. but i'd wager i'm pretty much spot on here.

always the same predictable shit.

Yeah and if you read the first page there it has a Naysayers post on the right and a suposedly pro-bitcoin stance on the left stating "Don't judge bitcoin on its early, inevitable problems", not really a "true" pro-bitcoin stance at first glance IMO.

Unless of course the pro-bitcoin argument states the early adoption and price volatility just make it "early" in the bitcoin scene, which could then be construed as a true pro-bitcoin stance on the left.
449  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2015, 12:20:07 AM
We should all stop selling for just 10 minutes and see what happens for shits and giggles.

Seriously though the largest growth keeps happening in single large 15 minute candles. Is this coincidence or is it perhaps 1 person accumulating large amounts of BTC over short periods of time and then letting the market re-equilibrate to not run up prices too fast?
450  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 02, 2015, 08:33:16 PM
Watch bears burning is always fun

Poor bears



451  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 01, 2015, 11:22:50 PM
I'm honestly surprised though that people's idea of future success of a coin/stock/etc is based on its recent price performance. I think this ideology comes from stock brokers trying to increase the trading frequency so that they can make gains on trading fees and then the rest of wall street just follows these ideas and publish TA etc. Does anyone look at the fundamentals and invest for the long term gains anymore?

2 years ago I day traded stock and came out with 16% gains over the year, which I was happy with and then paid short term capitals gains...which I was unhappy with.

Last year I just put my money in an index fund, made 14% effortlessly and when I sell I will pay long term capital gains tax, both of which are much more convenient.

I ended up saving time, paid less in taxes, paid less in transaction costs and had a higher net gain.

Look at the fundamentals of Monero and determine if $0.33/XMR is at, above or below its current and future value and plan to buy/sell/hold accordingly.

I sure wish I bought bitcoin at $0.33/BTC  Shocked
452  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 01, 2015, 06:55:42 AM
Development of marketing materials, new website - gomonero.com, anticipation of DB release.

So what's up with price bump recently?

And big money is coming into the game now via Risto
453  Economy / Economics / Re: Lyth0s' Economic Troubles Thread on: March 01, 2015, 05:08:38 AM
Don't believe any news about Greece. That theater could continue forever - until the EU bankrupts itself constantly bailing out a corrupt and inefficient government/banking system.

When money can be printed how do you run out? You DON'T you make headlines and politics, but at the end of the day you - the elite - get your house and your dinner for free.

It doesn't end until people say stop and choose a medium that cannot be faked - like Bitcoin.

(Gold also cannot be faked, but using it is just as cumbersome and expensive as our current structure of propping up the elites - at least the elite get something out of fiat)


In the near future Bitcoin will start to swallow up all this fiat, the more the fiat price lowers the faster it will go. Bitcoin is like a financial black hole, it is yet small - but just wait.
At first people will go to Bitcoin because of the price increases, later they will come because it is stable and fiat is collapsing.

If Greece were able to print their own Euro I would agree with you that they would never run out of fiat. But since they are reliant on the ECB, if the ECB were to cut them off then Greece would have to go back to printing its own money, which would then in turn make people lose a lot of confidence in the Euro (since any bankrupt country could then follow suit and leave the Euro).

As far as the ECB or its supported countries go your 100% correct that they will never run out of Euro.

Quote
In the near future Bitcoin will start to swallow up all this fiat, the more the fiat price lowers the faster it will go. Bitcoin is like a financial black hole, it is yet small - but just wait.
At first people will go to Bitcoin because of the price increases, later they will come because it is stable and fiat is collapsing.
--I couldn't have said it better myself.
454  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] BitcoinDark (BTCD)--Teleport/Telepathy/Ramchains/SuperNET Core on: February 28, 2015, 11:07:21 PM
I figured it out. Here is the new node list. The OP should be updated.


addnode=ps00.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps01.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps02.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps03.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps04.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps05.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps06.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps07.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps08.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps09.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps10.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps11.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps12.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps13.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps14.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps15.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps16.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps17.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps18.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps19.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=ps20.bitcoindark.ca
addnode=107.170.59.196
addnode=146.185.188.6
addnode=74.91.20.250:39997
addnode=54.85.50.15:50288
addnode=107.170.148.50:14631
addnode=65.129.66.246:57762
addnode=31.220.4.41
addnode=107.170.44.31
addnode=101.103.54.206:51222
addnode=120.148.149.13:54338
addnode=184.100.114.11:63310
455  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] BitcoinDark (BTCD)--Teleport/Telepathy/Ramchains/SuperNET Core on: February 28, 2015, 10:56:21 PM
I'm trying to setup a wallet/node today and I can't get my wallet to connect. Here is my BitcoinDark.conf file

rpcuser=[redacted]
rpcpassword=[redacted]
rpcport=14632
port=14631
daemon=1
gen=1
server=1
addnode=107.170.59.196
addnode=146.185.188.6
addnode=74.91.20.250:39997
addnode=54.85.50.15:50288
addnode=107.170.148.50:14631
addnode=65.129.66.246:57762
addnode=31.220.4.41
addnode=98.226.66.65
addnode=193.219.117.63
addnode=62.210.141.204
addnode=128.199.172.165
addnode=192.99.143.114
addnode=178.20.169.208
addnode=195.34.100.2:42038
addnode=5.101.107.239:60056

I also followed the sync help in the OP without luck.
456  Economy / Economics / Re: Lyth0s' Economic Troubles Thread on: February 28, 2015, 08:49:22 AM
News 2/27/15


There is really only two things I want to post today.

Greece runs out of funding options despite euro zone reprieve
Quote
Shut out of debt markets and faced with a steep fall in tax revenues, Athens is expected to run out of cash by the middle or end of March. Its finance minister has warned that Greece will struggle to repay creditors starting with a 1.5 billion euro IMF loan repayment due in March.

--Greece's emergency funds are only 1 billion in total, not even enough to pay the IMF back. Remember, Remember....The month of March? --Maybe.


The Euro is is getting closer to parity with the USD. Take a look at that nose dive on the 26th.

https://www.google.com/finance?q=EURUSD&ei=OX_xVJChD6ahigK55oGgCQ

If you live in Greece, any country that uses the Euro or have some family out there, tell them to get some bitcoins Tongue
457  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Trading Simulator] A fun & free Speculation Game - 68 PARTICIPANTS on: February 28, 2015, 06:14:46 AM
that's exactly why I don't understand all these people that are selling

Tomorrow you'll understand. Wink

Weekend dump expectation, or something not clearly seen in the indicators and oscillators?

Yeah its a classic squirrel on clown's shoulders pattern.
458  Economy / Economics / Re: Lyth0s' Economic Troubles Thread on: February 28, 2015, 05:07:34 AM

I don't think I agree with this. If the $100 is printed and we now owe $102 to the fed, then we have even more money printed to pay our debts back and this cycle repeats. Yes debt forever increases (and at a faster rate than the money supply), but all of this printing leads to inflation (dollar becomes cheaper and it takes more of them to buy the same good)...It's only if we stop printing that we would start to have deflation and economic collapse.

Please tell me if I'm wrong or missing something.


Printing does not necessary leads to inflation, since the inflation indicator does not include capital goods, more money will just raise the asset price and bond price. And now more money means more debt, means more of the income will be used to pay the debt, and less money will be used to pay the daily consumption, so there will be deflation even the money printing is accelerating

Of course when banks receive the interest, they will spend, which put those interest money back into circulation, but their spending is very limited and could not create much jobb

I'm starting to see your point. But if asset prices rise, is that not inflation as seen by the consumer? Is it possible for the government to be undergoing deflation in paying the interest while at the same time the rest of the consumer market sees inflation of prices?
459  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Welcome To The Blockchain (The Bitcoin Song) by Toby + Decap on: February 28, 2015, 04:56:24 AM
Awesome song! I donated Cheesy
460  Economy / Speculation / Re: Perfect plan on: February 27, 2015, 09:44:21 PM
Buy bitcoin for $250
Wait until it goes back to $300 and sell

Let's say you invest 50 000 euros, you'll get back 60 000. That's easy 10 000 euros. Of course you can invest more if you have. What do you think?



Buy low and... sell high?

It just might work!

Being brand new I'm not sure if he's serious or just posting for shits and giggles. Theymos should re-inact the newbie subforum limitations IMO.  Roll Eyes
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