If we go for November numbers so a bit of the extreme:
we were at 35k and went to 52k , that's close to 50%
447 exa and 583 exa now that's 30%
so that much increase in hashrate is really chewing at the increase in income per th/s.

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-mining_profitability.html#3m



I seriously doubt that there is enough gear to make up for 18 exahash so 50 000 older S19 that lose money at 8 cents but are profitable at 9.
So not a question of not being there but being there in such a number!
And would all those have immediate access to all that power? 50k gear is still 150MW..

If we have a 2-3 maybe even 4% spike it will be because of new gear bought on credit not reactivation of tens of thousands of miners, or at least that's what I believe.

I think the difficulty is going to take a break for  while
+7.3% and now +8.2%, that makes up for 16.1% in a month, we're poking at 600exa so another 16% would be some half a million S21!!!!
That would mean roughly
- 1.750 MW
- $2.5 billion (assuming no coupons)

No way this is going to repeat itself!


I'm not really going to bet on a negative but anything over 3% would still be insane.

Btw , looking at that table and at
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/insights-pools
Binance pool is losing marketshare seriously lately, I wonder how their "cloud' mining goes!

Yeah, I kept spinning that explanation instead of just x goes to there! 


Just table, as you can import it every week discrepancies could be seen easily, no need for extra work or fancy graphs!
Since you're doing this from your own time there is no point spending too much on something that might not even reveal a thing, and even if my tinfoil hat theory is right we're not achieving anything, just realizing big guys are playing with us!

Everything is possible!
Tossing a coin heads 6 times in a row and then one time not and again 6 times heads is a possibility, just like the price going up three times after the halving happened and just like till we had the previous cycle (which broke the no ATH before the halving rule you think of)  eveything is a possibility.
Drawing lines on past performance and thinking it will repeat itself time and time again till the end of the world is just crystal ball gambling!


Of course there is no guarantee!
And the whole thing about supply and demand and how mining 450 coins instead of 900 would reduce the supply is also ridiculous!

Everyone was bullish back in November cause the halving is coming and the price will go up based on the reduction of mined coins and they were making the math like : 900 coins a day , price was 30 000 so 27 million which will change to just 13.5 millions day.
Well now at these prices and assuming is not going over to 60k maybe  we will have 450 x 52 000, so 23.4 million, the incoming supply after the halving is already nearly as the supply in November!!!! The whole influx of coins halving effect that we were supposed to have has already been reduced by the jump in price!


If you're thinking of gold as the horses then you might change that to the early sledges before the wheel, gold has already been replaced a long time ago, SPDR is just peanuts compared to others despite having almost as much gold as Switzerland, it's just incurable goldbugs that keep those things alive.

But you were the one who claimed that the the collateral was the one who would guarantee that CZ would have returned even with a conviction pending. How come that right now you want to prove the opposite?


Yeah, he agreed to let the US  government do as it please with him!
Yu know what the deal of pleading guilty means? That he has no choice when the ruling is served, the only way to appeal would be for him to be granted a new trial under the not guilty defense, meaning a far longer conviction. So he basically came to the country, signed up for a deal that will remove his appeal no matter what the sentence is and gave up almost eveything just, so to not be hunted down and still be brought in front of a judge.
But everything is #safu!



Looks like they enjoy slow cooking him! Probably the DOJ flexing its muscle for show  as message he's done for , this was like the final warning that they can toy with him as they please, probably the lower 6 month sentence that will be cut to 3 for first time offense in minimum security, then he will go and enjoy his life but without touching an exchange or crypto again.

Would be also nice to have the market share of pools added in a table to keep tabs on the evolution for their hashing power.
BTC is doing such a thing here:
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/insights-pools
but it's annoying since if you have something weird in the last week it also influences the last month so you're left wondering how much things have changed from the previous 3 weeks.
If you're using excel it would be pretty easy, just export the % of blocks from each epoch into a new sheet.

The thing with this is that I really want to see how those heat/cold waves in Texas that supposedly shut down a lot of the hashrate that should be part of just Foundry are rely affecting the distribution, I'm right now at something like 90% sure some of the big guys are splitting theirs with multiple pools. Or they are doing this for some of their farms, or something like that.

Aren't all cards issued by a company in the EU required to have 3DS as part of PSD2 in the EU?
I remember that 2021 was the end of the delay will it became mandatory.


I can't believe I spent 5 minutes looking at this:

used the calculator, started from 250 then from 282.96 to see how they managed to get 2.5% to be 10% till I realized that the final price is in $ not euros.

Anyhow, quite curios on this, do those card work with ATMs? I might carry one with a few hundred $ with me on a holiday as second emergency fund and dump it after, not to go again through the same thing as in my last vacation. But now way I would go though KYC with some shady company, I would rather just order a second card from a local bank instead.

I just loves those topics, whenever I see somebody with a red tag coming and playing the innocent I always fell tempted to bet with how many extra tags he's going to leave the topic! But this was a slow one, only 1 , I would have put my money on 3 at least...let's wait a bit more!


Good! Ask Theymos for it!

Why?


Yeah, that boat has sailed a long time ago!
China is not cheap anymore and moreover they have tried to use that as a weapon, so one by one companies are starting to quit China, everyone should look at the labels of the stuff they buy and see that things made in China have been slowly on the replace with a ton of other countries.
And nowhere is that more true than in the US itself:

https://www.businessinsider.com/mexico-us-top-trading-partner-china-economic-nearshoring-trade-agreement-2024-2


Companies are moving out and they are not looking back, they know that once the shitstorm really starts happening the ones left will be in far more trouble, the CCP will need a scapegoat and a piggybank to raid and the ones left will have the same fate as the one that remained in Russia.


No it won't, China is not the US!
Look at the stock market, China has lost 7 trillion while the US has gained more than that, just five companies gaining 3 trillions. They are in deep trouble yet the world doesn't care, they are filled with bankruptcy, losing stocks a demographic collapse yet nobody really sees an effect in the western word.

Bumping this cause...we have a new record in the lol...energy crisis



So gas is now 68% cheaper than it was in the week before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
And gas is becoming cheaper in Europe than in Asia, with gas storage over 60% full and nice weather outside, LNG is being diverted from Europe to Japan and South Eats Asia as prices there ar 10% higher than in Europe!

As for the $300 per barrel of oil....all the cuts in the world and still OPEC hasn't been able to keep WTI over $80, again laughable since oil was at $85
 the same day two years ago, before the Russian fiasco!

But yeah, energy crisis, Europe is going to freeze, all those things...
I wonder how long till the head of Rosneft and Gazprom start jumping from their windows

I'm getting old, I was so sure he was from the US, I don't know why the whole s21 cable discussions made me think even more so..
Now I'm wondering who am I forgetting right now and who was I mistaken him for
You're mikey right ?!?


Well, OP came asked and ...

But the reason why I also said his request is going to cost him is because he said "list your detailed cost of building"
It's one thing to tell somebody you need 100m of cable, you need a transformer you need x and y and a completely different thing listing the cables at price perm, giving him quotes on the price of transformers by supplier and factoring in even the price handymen have per hour.

11sat/b did happen multiple times but under 10 will be really tough, it will trigger a lot of consolidations, not that they aren't happening even now but the other bad news is that the adjustment is in a few hours, we had 7.3% in the previous epoch an not probably 7.8-7.9% up, pretty hard to have another 7% to keep the same number of extra blocks mined, we're 143 blocks ahead so basically we had an extra day of transactions capacity.

That being said I've consolidated 10 larger inputs at 12sat/vb, just to have them in my spending wallet ready if we go into another orc/src/brc/trc/mmorpg whatever madness. Anyhow, this is just beautiful:




I know a guy 

Back in the frying pan, or is it in the fire from the pan? 


Two days to go and we're at 179!!!!! blocks int he last 24 hours, seems almost impossible to get it back under 7, but who knows
Price broke 50k so no slowdown coming from there, maybe quite the opposite, I wouldn't be surprised to see bitmain rising prices!

But it won't be a crypto card, not much of a card itself actually, they are just generating you a virtual number every time you want to purchase without apple pay..
If you have already a card that you can load with crypto you could just select that and pay directly with it. What is nice in this one (if Apple keeps the feature) is that you could activate and deactivate it whenever you want it, so perfect for paying on shady websites and not care bout recurring payments.
That again, not a crypto card!


Trocador was (and probablyl is) legit for swaps, used it for monero<>bitcoin through their partners, never encountered a thing, never had to contact them even with C ranked exchanges. As for the card itself, to be honest I wouldn't trust a KYC debit card 100% no matter who provides it to you, Visa can always pull the plug on them in an instant.  It will work fine , till it won't! 

Yup, millions and even hundred of millions, as to come closer to the hashrate right now you would need over 800 millions chips ...
But if we manage to get more of those and not just at 10W, maybe even higher with 50W, and as their hashrate will start making larger farms income go down you could probably achieve some level of true decentralization with fewer devices.
Imagine how big farms would feel with the halving coming and knowing half of the hashrate is run as fancy wallclocks and their owners don't give a damn about the price per kwh?   

It's mempool data:
https://mempool.space/api/v1/fees/recommended
{"fastestFee":14,"halfHourFee":13,"hourFee":13,"economyFee":6,"minimumFee":3}
vs





And yeah, you're right, the last one is the purging limit on default nodes.

The rout is definetly there and probably even the CCP has pissed his pants:
https://fortune.com/asia/2024/02/06/china-stock-rout-regulators-xi-jinping-brief-plans-rescue-markets/


But of course, eveything is fine:


Throwing bonds on the market, hoping for a crash so that the US could buy its debt at 50 cents for 1$ doesn't really sound like a plan on "weakening" your adversary.

Why do you change the actual interpretation of what was said there?


It's not that an attacks requires only 28% it is is just that at that number it stops having so many zeros after the dot that it becomes a possibility.
Again missing from this is that while you could theoretically in secret mine  temporary a longer chain with each new block your chain would need to have your chances go down proportionally to the hashrate you hold. That's why the 6 blocks confirmation! (Which most don't care anymore at all)
And how is attack going to unfold, you're going to deposit and withdraw to Binance every hour while hoping in the same hour you're going to finally manage to get the attack ready? And you're going to do this every hour for 20 weeks till you finally get it?
Ghash doublespending happened on unconfirmed transactions, nobody is doing large enough business on those anymore.

No exchange is using a cross-over examinations with a government database for foreigners.
The only ones that do so are one licensed in a few western countries that do this only for their citizens, like in the US and UK, and you can count on the finger the ones in question. Binance is using scrive, only the naive would think a EU based company would have a protocol with the Venezuelan or Congolese govemermnt and they would check every serial and number for the ID they receives.

It was skot9000 himself:
https://twitter.com/skot9000/status/1755326025943163030
and he seems like he didn't get it from Zeus either but directly from Bitmain: (from his tweets)

But at 40$ it would be a bit expensive but not that prohibitive for hobbies and stuff.
If you buy the whole miner for 5k you get the chip at 15$, I don't know how much the other stuff is but you could probably glue it together for another 30, rounding it to $70, so of course it won't compete in ROI with the S21 but a million of those could compete in profitability, no hobbyist is going to care about a 10w chip running on the desk.
Either way this would be the only way to true decentralization.