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461  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Trading Simulator] A fun & free Speculation Game - 68 PARTICIPANTS on: February 27, 2015, 09:41:32 PM
sell @240.77

Hi Dnaleor ...not sure you got my last one ..I see I m still on BTC on the spreadsheet
Thanks

I'm starting to update now Wink

note that you can trade even if I didn't register your last trade yet!


---


all updated

good luck guys! Smiley


Reminder for people who don't actively trade, but want to be counted as active player
Next Activity check: START 2015-03-01 00:00 UTC / END 2015-03-03 23:59:00 UTC
just post something... What you think about what's going to happen, or just "HODL" if you aren't that creative Wink

Does the activity check mean that I have to post within those 2 days? Or if I make a post lets say....today...that I'm cleared for the upcoming activity check? If it's just within those 2-3 days that is a little bit of a narrow posting time for an activity check. Someone with a slightly busy week could potentially miss it even if they are super active in this thread and with their trades.
462  Economy / Speculation / Re: One of the biggest Wall Street Bitcoin bulls just turned bearish on: February 27, 2015, 02:18:21 AM
Seems like Brian Kelly is making bull comments again:

Bitcoin futures market just changed the game

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102456187


Quote
Digital currencies are quickly becoming a new financial asset class for investors, traders and businesses. As early adopters profitably hand off to the next wave of institutional investors, the ecosystem will likely grow at an exponential pace. High-profile investors are a sure sign of an economy that is not just surviving; it's a sign that it is thriving. It is becoming increasingly likely that the 2014 reports of bitcoin's death have been greatly exaggerated.

The more I hear about this guy the more I want to know if he is really in the investing business or is he in the media business? OR does he use the media to effect people's emotions to SUPPORT his investment business?  Cool

Stop listening to media hype and create your own informed opinions. It'll serve you well.
463  Economy / Speculation / Re: February 2015, the month nothing happened. on: February 27, 2015, 02:05:06 AM
1 Month of near stability after a long painful plunge from its peak in 11/2013 is finally some good news for bitcoin price. Can we safely start moving up now?  Roll Eyes
464  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Trading Simulator] A fun & free Speculation Game - 68 PARTICIPANTS on: February 27, 2015, 01:52:29 AM
#6 on the rank list.

#2 in total bitcoin holdings.

Not shabby for so few trades Smiley
465  Economy / Economics / Re: Lyth0s' Economic Troubles Thread on: February 27, 2015, 01:44:38 AM
News 2/26/15

Stock-market crash of 2016: The countdown begins

Quote
It’s time to start the countdown to the crash of 2016. No, this is not a prediction of a minor correction. Plan on a 50% crash.
--Lots of people are putting their name out there on this 2015-2016 market crash, many more than prior to the 2008 crash. Only time will tell if they are correct.

4 things to watch for in Warren Buffett’s 50th annual letter

Quote
Cash hoard

Berkshire Hathaway is flush with cash, sitting on $62.4 billion as of Sept. 30.
--I've found it interesting that in the past 6 months many billionaires and large hedge funds are sitting on way more cash than they usually do. The main question here would be why sit on so much cash when the market is currently putting out excellent annual returns?

--The Great Depression created MANY new millionaires from people buying up large sums of stocks at dirt cheap prices after the stock market collapse occurred. I think this tactic is what these billionaires are waiting for.....crash->buy->profit.

--Keep your cash handy! Tongue


Inflation trend turns negative for first time since 2009

Quote
In January, the consumer price index sank by a seasonally adjusted 0.7%, the biggest one-month drop since the end of 2008, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
--I don't need to tell you all what happens when deflation occurs in a debt based monetary system...
466  Economy / Economics / Re: Gates Foundation: "Mobile banking will help the poor transform their lives" on: February 27, 2015, 01:33:59 AM
Bill Gates is addicted to propriety solutions even when they makes zero sense, and Bitcoin is not propriety. He also does not want to make this obvious. This recent interview with the Verge, where the interviewer challenges him on GMOs and locked down propriety software clarifies this very well. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8RETFyDKcw0

Edit: Take a very close look at the body language.

Good find. Gates starts talking about finances/banking and bitcoin around the 8:40 mark.

What Gates describes in his ideal form of money transactions is really the bitcoin network, he just doesn't know it yet. He goes back to the problem of volatility of bitcoin being bad for the poor without addressing that with mass adoption the volatility will decrease as supply/demand balance out.

Gates wants people to be able to move their money 'between banks" without any friction which will never happen in the for-profit proprietary world that we are in. Barriers to movement = retained customers.

I think in the next 3 years Gates will start arguing in the favor of bitcoin. Especially if we see price stability.
467  Economy / Economics / Re: The Banking system are highly illiquid right now on: February 27, 2015, 01:22:14 AM
This article talks about how people are trying to protect their assets :

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-19/meet-bureaucrat-who-had-courage-tell-truth-will-be-jobless-tomorrow

Big financial institutions in Europe can't sell more than a few millions euros worth of bonds to a bank, the market is highly illiquid. Gold and Bitcoin should thrive when the thin lawyer of confidence that the western populations have in their banking systems start to crack. It could be in a year or two years but it feels like it started so it could happen much sooner.

Zerohedge is great but predicts doom all the time! 
There ahave been stress tests recently and even if they weren't really thorough enough, the banks all passed, so they aren't completely illiquid!

Umm that is not the case.

Twenty-four European banks fail financial stress tests http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/26/european-banks-fail-financial-stress-tests

Citigroup Fights to Recover From 'Stress Test' Failure http://www.wsj.com/articles/citigroup-fights-to-recover-from-stress-test-failure-1403291332

Deutsche Bank, Santander U.S. units likely to fail Fed stress test: WSJ http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/20/us-deutsche-bank-stress-test-idUSKBN0LO2DN20150220

This list goes on...
468  Economy / Speculation / Re: Damn, just bought 0.25 btc and now it's tanking! on: February 26, 2015, 03:14:39 AM
$235 and dropping.

Looks like it's turning into a race to the bottom! Better sell while you can!

Another Lambchop alt I see. Welcome to my growing ignore list.
469  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: Why get a Trezor? on: February 26, 2015, 03:12:49 AM
It's essentially a portable cold storage that also allows you to safely spend your bitcoin on an infected computer. Since the potentially infected computer is only needed to create the transaction and then that transaction is signed by the trezor (and you can verify the send to address on the trezor screen).

The shipping times are terrible, but the Trezor itself is well worth the money IMO.
470  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Gaming and bitcoin will bring mass adoption on: February 26, 2015, 03:05:10 AM
it won't be mass adoption because the average user is not a gamer,a gamer is usually an advanced user in computers and it is usually a teenager

But there are many many teenagers that play video games and like you said they are usually more tech savvy. Start with the people that can most easily understand/use bitcoin and it will spread from there.
471  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2015-02-25] BTC Mag: Android-based Apple Pay Competitor Will Support Bitcoin on: February 25, 2015, 09:02:57 PM
Android-based Apple Pay Competitor Will Support Bitcoin

A new secure mobile payment solution for Android will be showcased at the Mobile World Congress, March 2 – 5 in Barcelona, Spain. The new payment app developed by Rivetz and other partners – an Android alternative to Apple Pay with Bitcoin support – will be available in the second quarter of 2015 and is compatible with over 350 million existing Android devices.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/19392/android-based-apple-pay-competitor-will-support-bitcoin/

Did I skim it too quickly or do they never mention the name of the payment app they are developing?
472  Economy / Economics / Re: Lyth0s' Economic Troubles Thread on: February 25, 2015, 03:20:51 AM
Good article find Wildford. Here it is if anyone else wants to read it: http://www.profitconfidential.com/economic-analysis/economic-collapse-2015/

It is a good quick read on the disconnect between the US stock market and the US economic fundamentals.
473  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 02-24-2015 Bitcoinz USA Announces New Bitcoin Cold Storage Solution on: February 25, 2015, 02:54:48 AM
Quote
However, you have to keep in mind that even offline Bitcoin wallet will need to connect to the internet at some point in order to broadcast the transaction to the blockchain.

Incorrect as the transaction can be signed offline and then broadcasted on an online (and even infected) computer without any problems.

Also the article fells to mention what Vault 51 is all about and how would we know if its truly offline? There is also counterparty risk even if the service really is offline cold storage.
474  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 24, 2015, 08:43:31 PM
My investment portfolio is doing even better than expected, I'm up thousands of $$ today.

How's that bitcoin investment working out for all of you? Just wondering, because from here, it doesn't seem to be going too well.

Stock market is up 0.4% today and your up $1000's of dollars. Why do you even grace us with your presence?
475  Economy / Speculation / Re: We are headed to $50 on: February 24, 2015, 06:18:16 AM
Not a chance. Capitulation has happened, and 160 was it. If you keep waiting for 50, you will end up not getting into and missing the rally.

You may well be right.  Capitulation of a sorts did happen, just like in April 2014.  It remains to be seen whether it was the final capitulation.

I'm already well in.  I'm only planning to buy more if it gets to $50-80.


It may be beneficial for you to utilize dollar cost averaging. Some would argue that it's the only way to beat the market long term.
476  Economy / Economics / Re: could OP-RETURN, metadata and the blockchain be more valuable than BTC ? on: February 24, 2015, 06:16:08 AM
They add to the value of bitcoin. Bitcoin = The currency + The protocol and together they can do some pretty amazing things. These auxillary functions can be done with very small amounts of bitcoin, but without bitcoin as the currency having value then there is little reason for the miners to secure the network. As long as the protocol has value, bitcoin the currency must also have value as well.
477  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Best Altcoin to invest in for 2015 and WHY on: February 24, 2015, 06:12:05 AM
Monero (XMR) due to it being the best anonymous coin at the moment. Also using http://xmr.to will allow you to use Monero to anonymously send bitcoin to other people. Web wallet is already created at http://mymonero.com and there is a strong dev team for the core full node/wallet.
478  Economy / Securities / Re: How do you invest your bitcoin? on: February 24, 2015, 06:09:15 AM
It would be nice if a large company like Coinbase crowdsourced their next investment series and allowed a decentralized way (Counterparty?) to allow for bitcoin investments. These investments could then be traded and paid interest on as a bond or dividends in a stock. It would be HUGE if coinbase was the first company to essentially sell bonds/stocks in a manner like this whether it be decentralized through counterparty or even centralized for now, a start is a start Smiley
479  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is too complex for the average person on: February 24, 2015, 05:34:21 AM
Anyone ever got the feeling that Bitcoin is too complex for the average person? The average person wants things as simple as possible, so when the word, Blockchain, Decentralization, etc, come into play, I feel that makes it too complicated for the average person to understand or even care.

Just show them how easy it is to use a mobile wallet to send money directly to another person, usually that is what they are interested in. Then if they have more questions you can dive into the other major benefits and technical aspects of bitcoin.

If you overload them with information right from the get go, they will quickly dismiss it as too nerdy or too complicated.
480  Economy / Economics / Re: Lyth0s' Economic Troubles Thread on: February 24, 2015, 04:37:30 AM
News 2/23/15

10 reasons U.S. stocks may see a 10%-20% correction by July

Quote
1. Business cycle: The current business cycle is 67-month-old, prompting worries that it is soon to expire and lead to a recession. But given that the U.S. economy is still performing at below potential and the typical signs of imbalances aren't apparent, the current cycle will remain intact for now.

2. Strong U.S. dollar: A firm dollar hurts U.S. exports and weakens American products’ competitiveness but it alone won't trigger a recession or a bear market.

3. The Federal Reserve: The Fed turning hawkish is a worry but given the current composition of the Fed, the possibility of an ill-timed interest rate hike is limited.

4. Weak Oil: Lower oil prices is more of a boon than a bane as less money spent on gas and fuel will mean more cash for consumers and businesses.

5. Earnings: “This is a serious problem,” said Kostohryz. The S&P 500 earnings per share risk is flat to negative in 2015 and PE ratios are peaking, limiting the market’s upside.

6. Valuation: Although some experts believe the market is overvalued based on the “Shiller PE10,” the indicator isn't foolproof. “PE ratios are at levels that have historically served as a peak in valuations, but aren't yet at levels that can be considered to constitute a ‘bubble.’”

7. Greece: Investors are underestimating the possibility of a negative outcome in Greece’s debt crisis. But the Eurozone is sufficiently prepared to deal with any fallouts.

8. Ukraine: The West and Russia won't go to war over Ukraine. The situation in the Eastern European country may deteriorate in the coming months but it will have limited impact on U.S. markets.

9. China: The Asian powerhouse is slowing but the Chinese government is expected to deploy aggressive fiscal and monetary measures to prevent a “hard-landing.”

10. Geopolitical instability: Oil-dependent regimes such as Venezuela are likely to face greater instability while rising Muslim extremism in the Middle East could lead to political and social upheaval in the region.

Is OPEC ready to announce an output cut?
Quote
So far, “crude-oil supplies remain strong, and OPEC is showing no signs of cutting in the immediate future,” said Kevin Kerr, president of Kerr Trading International. “That is all putting pressure on [WTI] crude around the $50 mark.”
--In short, doubtful.

1 in 3 Americans on verge of financial ruin

Quote
According to a survey released Monday by Bankrate.com of more than 1,000 adults, 37% of Americans have credit card debt that equals or exceeds their emergency savings.

4 things to know as the Nasdaq nears 5,000
Quote
The Nasdaq only crossed the 5,000 mark once before. This was back on March 9, 2000, just before the collapse of the so called dot-com bubble.

With the burst of the bubble, the Nasdaq went on to fall 78% to a then-six-year low of 1,114.11 on October 9, 2002. The ensuing bull run elevated the index back as high as 2,859.12 on Halloween 2007. That marked a 157% gain from the October 2002 low, but still 43.37% off the 2000 record close. But the financial crisis soon halted the advance.
--Breaks 5,000->Crash->2,800->crash->5,000->?

--Also for the S&P 500...  what do you think comes next?


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