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Okay I went to vircurex and they have been hacked. I use them to turn my NMC to BTC. Lost about .081 in btc.
My first question is did asicminer lose any NMC on the site?
my second question is where to change NMC to BTC?
this is the second exchange that busted on me. does anyone have a good NMC to BTC exchange in mind for myself and for asicminer since asicminer has been earning a shitload of nmc on bitminter.
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Why are all of the latest namecoin blocks stale?
New blocks are showing as stale, I'll get this changed to "processing" or something like that soon. Why are they like that for more than some seconds? Because while the mining server has a lighter load than usual, the payment processing system is lagging badly. I'll improve this soon. Apologies for the confusion it causes to show so many "stale" blocks, especially with all the fast blocks we had today it looked crazy. So that's why it shows stale even when it's not stale. I have been mining with bit minter since aug 2012 pretty solid pool. I like asic miner being in two pools like I said 2 pools and solo maybe even 3 pools and solo would be nice in the long run. |
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BitMinter doesn't cope with increased hashrate that well. All new blocks are interpreted as stale until enough blocks from competition confirm that they aren't stale. And since BitMinter has incredible luck last hour, there are not enough blocks from competition.
How is that not coping well? As long as the there are no orphaned blocks, what's the problem? ASICMiner will earn more there than at BTCGuild - about 8% extra from merged mining and around 2% extra for transaction fees. Yep, bitminter is definitely a GREAT choice for shareholders, BTCGuild can go to hell with their outrageous fees. I say only deploy at bitminter from now, and shareholder can enjoy the free 10% extra income. I would like 3 mining locations: 1) btc guild 2)bitminter 3) solo I would also like asicminer to have more then one location for the gear they hash with. When Hurricane Sandy hit the USA many people had long power outages. When Thailand flooded Western Digital the entire world had price problems with HDDs. When a major fuse factory was destroyed in Taiwan around a dozen years ago the entire world has a fuse shortage. I do not know what asicminer has planned or how they protect their gear but two heads are better then one. So if a two city plan or even two locations in the same city miles apart can be down it should be done. as I type 20Th out of 80Th belongs to asicminer if it is all in one building under one roof it is an extra risk. |
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Yep, emails will go out. It's on the website in the lower right corner under "news", but I will add something that is easier to notice.
Not sure if I should spam 40 000 people with it. Maybe I should limit it to users who were active in the last months.
So far the message has gone out on twitter, facebook, google+ and bitcointalk. It's the twitter message that is on the bitminter.com website.
I'm one of the "set and forget" miners and I'm kind of disappointed. I knew this day would come... I guess it's time for me to run p2pool I don't understand what you imply here (given your quote). If it's Re: the 1% fee, I think it was long time due, given the added value of BitMinter, the excellent uptime and reliability of the pool, etc. If it's Re: the notification method, I see nothing wrong in using the website to communicate (it has been pinned as a very visible banner for weeks), e-mail would only have been a plus IMHO. We just want some luck now  PS @organofcorti @philipma1957 thanks for you comments and analysis. I guess it would be very useful if there was some way to separate analysis for getwork, stratum and GBT. A statistical anomaly for one of the 3 protocols would be a great hint in case there was indeed a problem. thanks for the thanks. I really should do it perfectly correct but frankly it is a shit load of work. I am still satisfied the pool is running honestly. I am mining my 10Gh/s here and always mined with the doctor's pool since i found him last August 2012. As for the 1% fee causing a problem for a miner pleaseee . I have paid the Doctor 2 to 4 percent since August of 2012 why because he bothered to write an easy interface that to this day no one else has. |
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DrHaribo, may I ask this question without sounding accusing or implying anything because I'm honestly wondering:
How unlucky and for how long should it last before you would start to suspect anything? I don't have many months of experience but for the last 2-3 weeks I've only seen bad luck. Weeks are not a long time you will say, and bad luck can be just that, granted. But if the block/hashrate stayed like the past 2 weeks for, say, 2 more years, should we still not worry at all?
So basically because I'm biased and the pool has lived long before I joined, I was wondering when someone like you would start to worry.
dude that is just wrong I can pick 5 good days out of the last 14. edit only 4 good days. maybe the server needs more balls/power.. but this is 14 days and I ballparked some math as I am tired april 25 17 blocks 13.6 would have been normal for 6.1Th hash and 8.97 mill diff. very good luck apr 26th 12 blocks 13.7 would have been normal for 6.2 Th hash and 8.97 mill diff .. slightly bad luck apr 27th 8 blocks 13 would have been normal for 5.8Th and 8.97 mill diff bad luck for this 3 day period we mined 37 blocks should have mined 40.3 about 91.8 percent or normal add in the nmc you push against most any other pool. apr 28th 10 blocks hash is 5.5th 12.32 normal below apr 29th 15 blocks hash is 5.5th 12.32 normal above apr 30th 6 blocks hash is 5.7th 11.36 normal way below difficulty changed to 10.07 mill 31 total for 3 36.08 normal for 6 days 68 mined 76.38 normal may 1 13 blocks hash is 5.9 11.76 is normal above may 2 10 blocks hash is 6.1 12.16 is normal below may3 7 blocks hash is 6.2 12.36 is normal below for 9 days 98 113.08 is normal may 4 10 blocks 15.5 under may 5 20 blocks 16.5 over may 6 11 blocks 16.6 under may 7 21 blocks 20.96 just over may 8 18 blocks 22 under 4 out of 14 good 2 close 7 bad 178 block mined out of 204.56 this is roughly 87 percent of normal . if the trend continues I would guess that the server struggles to keep up with the load. remember there is down time and this number ignores all down time. it also does not reflect the factor of 1.08 for name coins. so 1.08 x 178 = 192.24 divide by 204.56 = 93.9 percent and it still does not reflect any down time. so it is not as bad as it seems. but maybe more power is needed to handle higher volumes. |
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Wow, 6 and half hours without block ?
Imho
Looks strange with pool speed more than 11 000 ghs !
how about the 2 blocks right before it 6m and 33m and the block after it took 11m. btw my 3 large samples dating from april 5 to now show no oddness. 1 ratio of btc blocks to nmc blocks earned was high one was low and one was close to perfect. |
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Fifth if bitcoins do not crash but the network goes to 300Th you can mine other coins. the usb can not mine other coins.
Thats not correct i think. The asics use sha-256 and many other coins use this too. There isnt only litecoin as alternate cryptocurrency. Today the exchange rate isnt as good as yesterday but there are many other coins that could be mined with sha-256. Terracoin, PPCoin, Freicoin, Bytecoin, Namecoin, IXCoin and Devcoin. And yesterday there were some of these coins way more profitable than mining litecoins. So its not a disadvantage that big. yeah it is not the biggest plus for gpus it is why I put it lower on the list. hey don't get me wrong I am still buying asicminer shares. they are better then bfl vaporware |
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[....]
where did these come from? while they look nice where did the data come from to show this. the problem is you need to show your sampling of how you get the pools hash rate. if you take your data from when a block is made it leaves out all down time and can be very misleading. remember no blocks are made when a pool goes down. so any true hash rate must account for down time.
by the way I have figured out a very good way to test the idea out that coins are too low for luck to be accountable. I have a method that solves the problem of hash rate calculation. the pools hash rate is not important for my method . in fact all that matters is If I run at least one worker 24/7 . I can give 1 day result a 2 day result a 3 day result a 4 day result and a 5 day result.
Not quite. Unless you derive confidence interval for the data, you're only showing the variance. true . but my method is not about btc real earnings vs btc projected earnings. my method has constants that do not vary but rather show a parallel ratio that should be consistent. if not consistent it would indicate a flaw and or a bug or a very clever manipulation of the pool. frankly I have done this method a few times and never had any large problem (ie variance) which is why I feel that this pool is run well and that the so called bad luck is not 10%. You're a mysterious one! When you're done, can you post your method and the reason for it along with the results? yes I will. It is quite simple but I want to post it after 5 days showing the 1 day the 2 day 3 day 4 day 5 day results. After I post the first 5 days I will continue to track the pool. Frankly I do not expect to have a large 10% issue that has been mentioned. More like plus or minus 1 or 2 %. |
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My view is that the recent and coming increases in hashrate will not affect the shareprice much until they feed through into noticeably higher dividends and that even then it may be dampened by a lack of natural demand. There are however a lot of natural sellers, as holders wishing to diversify do so.
Yes, for those like me who'd like to add to their small position but aren't in a position to do so yet I selfishly hope that AM flies under the radar for a while longer. I look at where AM is today and oscillate between: - This is too good to be true; and
- I've missed something and must be horribly mistaken.
Yeah I think the same. |
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i can't help but wonder if the share price is being effected by the reaction to the whole 1.99 usb miner thing. lot of people were caught of guard by that, to say the least.
USB miners has roughly the same hashing power at a fraction of the size and power usage. If they don't want them, they can stick with their GPUs and all their issues. I consider this to be wrong. I have a problem with the usb miners over gpus for a few reasons. First they encourage power theft this is bad for asicminer since they built a device that can steal power to make money. to me this may cause a lot of problems. Second i purchased a hd7790 for 113 usd the usb stick is about 220 usd 107 dollars cheaper for the gpu card. Third the 7790 pulls 80 watts to hash at 300Mh/s the usb stick pulls 2.5 watts so lets say 80 watts difference . this is 2 kwatts a day New Jersey cost = 32 cents for 2 kwatts. This will take about 334 days or 11 months to be 107 dollars. So the 'free' power of the stick in the usa will not help you for 11 months against the hd7790. Fourth if bitcoins crash the hd7790 is a working piece of gear with value. Fifth if bitcoins do not crash but the network goes to 300Th you can mine other coins. the usb can not mine other coins. Sixth the stick will cost more then 220usd since resellers will charge more to make profit. Resellers may ask 300 usd. So frankly The usb stick has lots of downside issues. It does have upside 1) It will bring in other miners and new people. 2) It is small I really fear people stealing power with it getting caught and giving bitcoins (asicminer) a black eye |
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[....]
where did these come from? while they look nice where did the data come from to show this. the problem is you need to show your sampling of how you get the pools hash rate. if you take your data from when a block is made it leaves out all down time and can be very misleading. remember no blocks are made when a pool goes down. so any true hash rate must account for down time.
by the way I have figured out a very good way to test the idea out that coins are too low for luck to be accountable. I have a method that solves the problem of hash rate calculation. the pools hash rate is not important for my method . in fact all that matters is If I run at least one worker 24/7 . I can give 1 day result a 2 day result a 3 day result a 4 day result and a 5 day result.
Not quite. Unless you derive confidence interval for the data, you're only showing the variance. true . but my method is not about btc real earnings vs btc projected earnings. my method has constants that do not vary but rather show a parallel ratio that should be consistent. if not consistent it would indicate a flaw and or a bug or a very clever manipulation of the pool. frankly I have done this method a few times and never had any large problem (ie variance) which is why I feel that this pool is run well and that the so called bad luck is not 10%. |
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This isn't to complain... in fact, I think that buying in at the current rates is a pretty decent deal considering what they have in the pipeline for the future, and I consider investing at this undervaluation as a reward for performing diligent research on the company.
I hope you're right. A BFL miner is what I bought when I was new to all this. Suffering buyer's remorse I decided to do my due diligence afterwards, and that convinced me to cancel the order and put the proceeds into AM. I guess if AM do as well as I think they might in a crazy way I'll have to thank BFL for scaring the bejeezus out of me. just cancelled a 1300 dollar order with bfl and plan to buy shares of am with the 1300 |
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I am about 8 hours and 35 minutes into my test. start time was 1:34
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Whats wrong with the pool? Someone stealing blocks?  where did these come from? while they look nice where did the data come from to show this. the problem is you need to show your sampling of how you get the pools hash rate. if you take your data from when a block is made it leaves out all down time and can be very misleading. remember no blocks are made when a pool goes down. so any true hash rate must account for down time. by the way I have figured out a very good way to test the idea out that coins are too low for luck to be accountable. I have a method that solves the problem of hash rate calculation. the pools hash rate is not important for my method . in fact all that matters is If I run at least one worker 24/7 . I can give 1 day result a 2 day result a 3 day result a 4 day result and a 5 day result. |
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Half hour downtime...
yeah and this down time does not get shown correctly for luck. for instance today we mined 20 blocks which is a great day. so if you add the hash rates at the 20 blocks which is 20 samples of hash rate for a 24 hour day then divide by 20 you get an average hash of 8,739.616 Gh/s even with 20 samples from today that number is high since we had a half hour down time. remember if the server is down or ddos attack we can not earn a block so the zero samples do not get averaged in. so if we were down for .5 hours 23.5/24 = 96.04 percent the hash rate would need to be multiplied by that so we were more like 8,393.527 not 8,739.616 so we mined 20 if you use the calculator https://bitclockers.com/calc it shows we should have mined 17.448 blocks but that has not been lowered b down time today the correct number of should mined was 16.757 blocks and we did 20. so if you defied 16.757 into 20 you get 1.193 or 19.3 percent better then normal. some will insist pools should have 0 done time and have 20 divided by the un adjusted 17.448 blocks. this comes to 1.146 or 14.6 percent better then normal. either way it was a good day. do not forget we also got nmc 8 percent extra is normal so today was close to a 1.27 or 1.28 rather then 1 or 28% extra. It's possible you are correct. Bitminter should show daily earnings like other pools do. This gives you a clear indicator that can be compared with expected earnings for your hashrate and the day's luck. But Bitminter isn't down 10% of the time, so there has to be more to it if there is soley a miscalculation going on. And any pool that is down 10% is one to avoid, failover to backup pools costs significant transition time. I have an idea that should be easy to do. I will get back with results in 5 days. |
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Half hour downtime...
yeah and this down time does not get shown correctly for luck. for instance today we mined 20 blocks which is a great day. so if you add the hash rates at the 20 blocks which is 20 samples of hash rate for a 24 hour day then divide by 20 you get an average hash of 8,739.616 Gh/s even with 20 samples from today that number is high since we had a half hour down time. remember if the server is down or ddos attack we can not earn a block so the zero samples do not get averaged in. so if we were down for .5 hours 23.5/24 = 96.04 percent the hash rate would need to be multiplied by that so we were more like 8,393.527 not 8,739.616 so we mined 20 if you use the calculator https://bitclockers.com/calc it shows we should have mined 17.448 blocks but that has not been lowered b down time today the correct number of should mined was 16.757 blocks and we did 20. so if you defied 16.757 into 20 you get 1.193 or 19.3 percent better then normal. some will insist pools should have 0 done time and have 20 divided by the un adjusted 17.448 blocks. this comes to 1.146 or 14.6 percent better then normal. either way it was a good day. do not forget we also got nmc 8 percent extra is normal so today was close to a 1.27 or 1.28 rather then 1 or 28% extra. |
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thanks. back to the usb sticks. are they really going to sell at 2 BTC = 220 USD. If I buy a hd7790 it will hash at 300 just like the usb stick. I can get one for 140 usd. yeah I am way ahead on price. 80 bucks. so if the usb stick costs zero power if you plug it in someone's pc the hd7790 is 32 us cents a day. if you pay 16 cents a k-watt. that 80 usd I am ahead on price with the hd7790 would take 250 days to spend 80 usd in power. I realize that the usb stick will get new people into BTC. I just can't see a reseller paying 220 usd for these sticks. at least in the usa. but then again one guy sold a working jalapeņo for 4400 usd. that is 20x the price at 5800 hash. I guess the sticks could sell at 300 one at a time to the right buyer but a reseller would not want to pay 220 to sell at 300. I have some shares of asic miner pt. I have a large gpu farm 10Gh/s I have 2 jalapenos on order and I canceled an order for 2x little singles. When I get that refund I will buy 10 more shares of asicminer pt. I guess the sticks work for power thieves / chiselers Which turns me off I could see a future problem with this. I can see the sticks are good in a high cost power area.. I know of more then one spot with power at 50 cents a k-watt . Well we need to wait and see if they help us or hurt us.
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All the data is available but it would take a few days work. I did this back in the fall and bitminter was fine for a 90 day period of time. I will tell you what i will go back and do it again. I will go back to aug 2012. Below is from aug 1 2012. I used this calculator https://bitclockers.com/calc to get the normal number. keep in mind 50 coins a block if you try to double-check my work until late nov. hash power is the hash for each block made added and divided by the blocks made . so it is a good but not perfect number. I am up to aug 10th 2012 we made 61 blocks and normal would be 53.16 61 blocks made vs 53.16 is huge . 1.147 to 1 or 14.7 percent over normal then toss in the namecoins. you also need to understand that determining the true daily hash rate is not possible I don't have enough samples of hash rate my samples are when a block is found. DATE------------------Blocks----------------Difficulty--------------Hashpower-------------- normal blocks for this Aug 1 2012------------7-------------- 2,036,671------------------470.85Gh/s--------------------- 4.64 Aug 2 2012------------3---------------2,036,671------------------534.00Gh/s----------------------5.26 Aug 3 2012------------5---------------2,036,671------------------531.99Gh/s----------------------5.25 Aug 4 2012------------6---------------2,036,671------------------513.04Gh/s----------------------5.07 Aug 5 2012------------4---------------2,036,671------------------518.61Gh/s----------------------5.11 Aug 6 2012------------3---------------2,036,671------------------552.93Gh/s----------------------5.46 Aug 7 2012------------5---------------2,036,671------------------536.80Gh/s----------------------5.30 Aug 8 2012------------8---------------2,036,671------------------540.74Gh/s----------------------5.34 Aug 9 2012------------9---------------2,036,671------------------557.76Gh/s----------------------5.51 Aug 10 2012-----------11--------------2,036,671------------------633.70Gh/s----------------------6.26 This method has a flaw the hash rate of bitminter is found by using the hashpower when a block was made. so if it was a bad day and 3 blocks were made only 3 samples of hash rate were used to find the daily hashrate. So the hash rate could be higher and the luck is worse but more likely the average hash rate is lower . reason is if bitminter goes down and hash rate is 0 for 1 hour no block will be made. So my hash rate average is missing all down time. BTW I believe that is true when you look at bitminter's luck charts. In order to be really accurate 4 samples of hashrate every hour would be far better to know the true daily hashrate. A total of 96 samples a day. I think the doctors luck chart is wrong and always reads low for the same reason. He uses the current hashrate when the block is found. Thus the luck is calculated with all down time missing. So in a 24 hour day if the system is down 1 hour luck will be based on 24 hours up time. The only way to really figure out luck is for some one to write a script that gives us 4 samples(even 10 per hour) of bitminter every hour of every day for the next month. I would be certain that the average hashrate with those numbers will be 3 to 5% less then the hash rate used by counting it only when a block is minted. |
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We had 22 blocks In a day about 2x normal. That is about best I can remember . The best thing to do is go on this site. https://bitclockers.com/calc wait for the difficulty to change it did on tue this week so put in your hash and see what you should get 10 days in a row. My hash is 9Gh/s today I should earn .44919 coins. ship your coins off and set to 0. then set your coins at 10x or in my case 4.4919 . check every day same time. after 24 hours your should be at .44919 after 48 hours you should be at .89839 once the ten days are up see how close you are to the calculator.. then multiply by 1.1 why the nmc you earn are worth 10% more. so if you earned 4.3 coins in 10 days and said damn I am short multiply by 1.1 and you are at 4.73 coins and that my friend would be a good 10 days. most pools charge more then bitminter. i do advise you to put some money in asicminer if you can't get an asic you can get a share for about 1.2 btc most of my money is in gpu farms...... 7k then some in bfl .......................... 1.6k then some in asicminer shares............. 0.5k total of 9k invested . I have collected about 11k in coins. |
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