ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[helixone]

C'mon what's wrong with this picture?

friedcat updates with fantastic news, stock prices on PT exchanges plummets. And by plummets, I mean a 10% drop in a week.

Volatility is fine, but except a slightly skeptical price reception on those bees, I have seen positive news only for the previous week. BFL is late as always, Avalon delayed, friedcat responding with perfection to inquiries (including mine)...

We should have started the weekly run-up to Wednesday already, but instead, sellers are popping out from every grain of sand on the beach. On BTCT there's basically no buy support until 1.14-1.15, and if that falls, there's nothing down to 0.9. Meanwhile, the sell side is heavy just a few bitcents above last sale.

More or less same situation on Bitfunder, no buy support of consequence until 1.09ish, with solid support as low as 1.03-1.05. The auction subforum is heavy with sellers of fairly large quantities.

At these levels we're looking at a yield of 28% or more and that's before the new hash rate earnings come in! I know the Bitcoin community loves their risk and all, but almost 30% dividend from a company as solid as ASICMiner? You're not getting 1/10 of that from Apple or Microsoft.

What the heck am I missing here? Is there a "Sorrry lolz we were just kidding about those ASICs lolz" update I haven't seen somewhere?

.b

PS: In case it's not bleeding obvious by now, I am an AM shareholder and I have an interest in seeing a high share price, but right now, I'm more interested in figuring out whether it's the world or me that's gone mad.

I'm going to quote the Oracle of Omaha here, and let you come to your own decision.

Dec. 10, 2001: Warren Buffett on the stock market
"To refer to a personal taste of mine, I'm going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life. When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the 'Hallelujah Chorus' in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up in price, we weep. For most people, it's the same with everything in life they will be buying -- except stocks. When stocks go down and you can get more for your money, people don't like them anymore..."

Full quote here: http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/

[arklan]

i can't help but wonder if the share price is being effected by the reaction to the whole 1.99 usb miner thing. lot of people were caught of guard by that, to say the least.

[Franktank]

i can't help but wonder if the share price is being effected by the reaction to the whole 1.99 usb miner thing. lot of people were caught of guard by that, to say the least.

USB miners has roughly the same hashing power at a fraction of the size and power usage. If they don't want them, they can stick with their GPUs and all their issues.

[arklan]

i can't help but wonder if the share price is being effected by the reaction to the whole 1.99 usb miner thing. lot of people were caught of guard by that, to say the least.

USB miners has roughly the same hashing power at a fraction of the size and power usage. If they don't want them, they can stick with their GPUs and all their issues.

yea, i know. i'm not complaining about it. heck, i'm organizing a group buy of em. but you can't deny it surprised a lot of people, and not in a good way. that kind of thing strikes me as exactly the sort of thing that effects the sentiment around a stock.

[Franktank]

i can't help but wonder if the share price is being effected by the reaction to the whole 1.99 usb miner thing. lot of people were caught of guard by that, to say the least.

USB miners has roughly the same hashing power at a fraction of the size and power usage. If they don't want them, they can stick with their GPUs and all their issues.

yea, i know. i'm not complaining about it. heck, i'm organizing a group buy of em. but you can't deny it surprised a lot of people, and not in a good way. that kind of thing strikes me as exactly the sort of thing that effects the sentiment around a stock.

Perhaps and there are folks trying to make their own USB miners via Avalon chips to sell at a cheaper price. Seeing as its DIY folks making them, there will be no set standard and a severe lack of quality control. Friedcat has taken time to help folks that have bought AM blades to set it up, I see no different with the USB miners. That support hasn't shown itself with any DIY'ers so far.

[redbeans2012]

Maybe people are selling their shares so they can buy the USB sticks. :p

[Transisto]

i can't help but wonder if the share price is being effected by the reaction to the whole 1.99 usb miner thing. lot of people were caught of guard by that, to say the least.

USB miners has roughly the same hashing power at a fraction of the size and power usage. If they don't want them, they can stick with their GPUs and all their issues.

It is completely ridiculous to compare the AM USB miner to GPUs,  I hope nobody is still mining bitcoin with their GPU while sCrypt alt coins have had 150%+ profitability for months.

[JaredR26]

Are there any shares available for purchase anywhere at this point?

You can purchase shares here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=196273.new#new

Or on a passthrough like bitfunder:
https://bitfunder.com/asset/G.ASICMINER-PT

[ex-trader]

The market on the PTs is tiny and illiquid, so small changes in supply/demand alter the price easily. Look at the volume graph, it has never traded over around 60 shares daily in recent months.

The big increase a few weeks back was started by me. I decided to buy some AM shares as I like the company and I spent an amount that would have bought a board seat at IPO, but now only buys a small amount of shares.

After this little spike, which was increased as some others followed this rise then some existing holders saw the opportunity to exit some of their positions and started the many auctions.

My view is that the recent and coming increases in hashrate will not affect the shareprice much until they feed through into noticeably higher dividends and that even then it may be dampened by a lack of natural demand. There are however a lot of natural sellers, as holders wishing to diversify do so.

[ex-trader]

This thread is a complete clusterfuck to anyone but a few dozens early shareholders.
.........
The update are coming drop by drop, lost in these 230 pages, it's as if the whole operation was run by Friedcat alone,,, How will that thing scale ?

I think this is a concern to many. This is a great company that needs more of a 'management team' than one person alone who is achieving great things, but it potentially overwhelmed with the breadth of work required.

I have offered to help, as a fan and shareholder of the company and with direct experience on Boards of similar and bigger companies, but as yet have had no reply.

[twobits]

What the heck am I missing here? Is there a "Sorrry lolz we were just kidding about those ASICs lolz" update I haven't seen somewhere?

Profit taking after a run up is not unusual.

[SebastianJu]

i can't help but wonder if the share price is being effected by the reaction to the whole 1.99 usb miner thing. lot of people were caught of guard by that, to say the least.

USB miners has roughly the same hashing power at a fraction of the size and power usage. If they don't want them, they can stick with their GPUs and all their issues.

yea, i know. i'm not complaining about it. heck, i'm organizing a group buy of em. but you can't deny it surprised a lot of people, and not in a good way. that kind of thing strikes me as exactly the sort of thing that effects the sentiment around a stock.

Its strange, yes. I mean the selling of the erupter blades shoot up the share price to 150% even though the earnings of this could only be some percent more the next week in overall. Now everyone thinks the USB erupter are priced too high... and the asicminer share price is slowly dropping.
The stupid thing about this is... the hashrate doubled... we will get the double dividend tomorrow (except new investments have to be done). So the dividend doubles and the shareprice goes down? And the dividend will grow by some small percent and the shareprice goes to 150%?
That doesnt sound thought through actually. Maybe many traders can think of Asicminer only as a seller of Asicminerhardware.
The better for people that have spare bitcoins now...

[stripykitteh]

My view is that the recent and coming increases in hashrate will not affect the shareprice much until they feed through into noticeably higher dividends and that even then it may be dampened by a lack of natural demand. There are however a lot of natural sellers, as holders wishing to diversify do so.

Yes, for those like me who'd like to add to their small position but aren't in a position to do so yet I selfishly hope that AM flies under the radar for a while longer.

I look at where AM is today and oscillate between:

• This is too good to be true; and
• I've missed something and must be horribly mistaken.

[SebastianJu]

My view is that the recent and coming increases in hashrate will not affect the shareprice much until they feed through into noticeably higher dividends and that even then it may be dampened by a lack of natural demand. There are however a lot of natural sellers, as holders wishing to diversify do so.

Yes, for those like me who'd like to add to their small position but aren't in a position to do so yet I selfishly hope that AM flies under the radar for a while longer.

I look at where AM is today and oscillate between:

• This is too good to be true; and
• I've missed something and must be horribly mistaken.

Check out this for your nerves and confidence... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkPdXsQFT-vIdHRVUjQ5Ql9BQWR6OENLMkhyUktUblE#gid=7

[philipma1957]

i can't help but wonder if the share price is being effected by the reaction to the whole 1.99 usb miner thing. lot of people were caught of guard by that, to say the least.

USB miners has roughly the same hashing power at a fraction of the size and power usage. If they don't want them, they can stick with their GPUs and all their issues.

  I consider this to be wrong.  I have a problem with the usb miners over gpus for a few reasons.

 First they encourage power theft  this is bad for asicminer since they built a device that can steal power to make money.  to me this may cause a lot of problems.

 Second i purchased a hd7790 for 113 usd  the usb stick is about 220 usd   107 dollars cheaper for the gpu card.

Third  the 7790 pulls 80 watts to hash at 300Mh/s  the usb stick pulls 2.5 watts  so lets say   80 watts difference . this is 2 kwatts a day  New Jersey cost = 32 cents  for 2 kwatts.  This will take about 334 days or 11 months to be 107 dollars.  So the 'free' power of the stick in the usa will not help you for 11 months against the hd7790.  

Fourth if bitcoins crash the hd7790 is a working piece of gear with value.

Fifth  if bitcoins do not crash but the network goes to 300Th  you can mine other coins. the usb can not mine other coins.

Sixth  the stick will cost more then 220usd since resellers will charge more to make profit.  Resellers may ask 300 usd.



So frankly The usb stick has lots of downside issues.

It does have upside

1) It will bring in other miners and new people.

2) It is small



  I really fear people stealing power with it getting caught and giving bitcoins (asicminer) a black eye

[philipma1957]

My view is that the recent and coming increases in hashrate will not affect the shareprice much until they feed through into noticeably higher dividends and that even then it may be dampened by a lack of natural demand. There are however a lot of natural sellers, as holders wishing to diversify do so.

Yes, for those like me who'd like to add to their small position but aren't in a position to do so yet I selfishly hope that AM flies under the radar for a while longer.

I look at where AM is today and oscillate between:

• This is too good to be true; and
• I've missed something and must be horribly mistaken.

Yeah I think the same.

[John (John K.)]

i can't help but wonder if the share price is being effected by the reaction to the whole 1.99 usb miner thing. lot of people were caught of guard by that, to say the least.

USB miners has roughly the same hashing power at a fraction of the size and power usage. If they don't want them, they can stick with their GPUs and all their issues.

  I consider this to be wrong.  I have a problem with the usb miners over gpus for a few reasons.

 First they encourage power theft  this is bad for asicminer since they built a device that can steal power to make money.  to me this may cause a lot of problems.

 Second i purchased a hd7790 for 113 usd  the usb stick is about 220 usd   107 dollars cheaper for the gpu card.

Third  the 7790 pulls 80 watts to hash at 300Mh/s  the usb stick pulls 2.5 watts  so lets say   80 watts difference . this is 2 kwatts a day  New Jersey cost = 32 cents  for 2 kwatts.  This will take about 334 days or 11 months to be 107 dollars.  So the 'free' power of the stick in the usa will not help you for 11 months against the hd7790.  

Fourth if bitcoins crash the hd7790 is a working piece of gear with value.

Fifth  if bitcoins do not crash but the network goes to 300Th  you can mine other coins. the usb can not mine other coins.

Sixth  the stick will cost more then 220usd since resellers will charge more to make profit.  Resellers may ask 300 usd.



So frankly The usb stick has lots of downside issues.

It does have upside

1) It will bring in other miners and new people.

2) It is small



  I really fear people stealing power with it getting caught and giving bitcoins (asicminer) a black eye

Well, as someone having maintained a GPU farm for a couple of months last time, I can say that having 3GH in the form of USB sticks is vastly preferred over 3GH in GPU's. The heat, frequent maintenance, electricity required (imagine drawing so much power that you flipped the fuse), and the empty space required is a massive upgrade - that's why FPGA's are highly priced despite the lower hash/price ration.

[JimiQ84]

anyhow... right now it looks like AM will sell at most 1200 of these USB miners... what will happen to the rest? (8800 pieces)

[phantastisch]

anyhow... right now it looks like AM will sell at most 1200 of these USB miners... what will happen to the rest? (8800 pieces)

Well since you have contact with every person who directly messaged friedcat in regard of this miners this 1200 are final, am i right?

[SebastianJu]

Fifth  if bitcoins do not crash but the network goes to 300Th  you can mine other coins. the usb can not mine other coins.

Thats not correct i think. The asics use sha-256 and many other coins use this too. There isnt only litecoin as alternate cryptocurrency. Today the exchange rate isnt as good as yesterday but there are many other coins that could be mined with sha-256. Terracoin, PPCoin, Freicoin, Bytecoin, Namecoin, IXCoin and Devcoin. And yesterday there were some of these coins way more profitable than mining litecoins. So its not a disadvantage that big.