There will be no more large 80-90% decreases in Bitcoin anymore.
honey-badger: hold my beer.. idgaf lol Please no. Just when you think the dumping is over for the day, here we go again. |
|
|
|
Imho
Big players, institutional players, new people, who ever ….. have had 13years long to buy BTC on the cheap, over the years when BTC have become relevanter it have had serious dips and opportunities enough to buy cheaper, just as one is presented right now.
People whom invested in this apex asset of value are more and more keeping there hands onto it and are less likely to sell on the cheap… I think we will not have extreme low prices, people just have to buy on smaller discounts.
100% agree and this is being shown with on-chain data. |
|
|
|
See I wouldn't mind paying tax if half the money didn't go straight to the extreme wealthy so that the politicians could have sweet million dollar jobs after the leave office on the boards of their comapines. Or if half of the tax left over from that wasn't then wasted on stupid shit the government should have nothing to do with. Get rid of that and I would proudly pay tax, but that is never going to happen it seems. |
|
|
|
Year on inflation in December 2021 6.4% in The Netherlands.
Note that house prices rose beyond 10% last year and one of the leading banks in The Netherlands expects another 12.5% increase this year.
With these figures anyone who complains that "but how can BTC be fair when those who got in early will have massive gains." is a fucking fool OR is purposefully trying to distract from the biggest problems.
Some people just want to go through life with their eyes closed. Then complain when they've fucked up. |
|
|
|
|
Just to emphasise my last point regarding the Fed not giving a shit about inflation, I'm listening to the last Macrovoices interview of last year, The guest speaker Louis-Vincent Gave makes a really important point that "inflation is not a bug, it's a feature". The Fed wants inflation, and they are happy with inflation at these levels especially since they know it will decrease somewhat soon once the last of the fiscal spending ends up in the 1% pockets (lower commodities prices help too). And being that there is so much utterly unproductive debt now floating around the system they know they need higher inflation to reduce it.
Expanding debt is necessary to expand the money supply, the money supply needs to expand to grow GDP, having inflation ensures that the expanding debt stays manageable for further debt growth and then further GDP. Yes the system is a ponzi, but that's how it works and inflation is here to stay. Long-term Bitcoin is the best vehicle to survive the monetary system. And the sharp increase illiquid supply we are seeing shows more people now understand the monetary system and also Bitcoin. There will be no more large 80-90% decreases in Bitcoin anymore.
|
|
|
|
I’d have to disagree with the above. I’m not seeing capitulation in the market right now at all. I’m seeing lower lows on low volume indicating that we are still awaiting that max pain moment. It seems unlikely that we will turn upwards without a massive volume spike corresponding with a ton of selling. I’ll feel better once that volume spike and drop are in the rear view and with a little luck it’ll happen without digging us too deep into the 30’s.
Nobody really knows what is the volume in the OTC market where shadow banking cartel operates. This drop has nothing to do with situation in KZ. Mempool is empty. This will be a very short lived drop. This is what I think. And as far as I can tell, from those who post on-chain data, on-chain is still supporting this. Last month, when the price dropped to these levels and bounced most analysts were saying that we will return to these lows as that's what always seems to happen with Bitcoin. Finally, when that happens though everyone is shitting themselves. The fed seems to have a lot of jawboning power, I'm surprised many listen though, as mathamatically the monetary system is set up in a way that will ensure increasing asset prices until the serfs eventually overthrow the system. It's like the lessons of the last 15 years were never heard. "Nah the Fed is serious this time man, all that inflation that they need to erode away the unsustainable debt levels so that people can take on debt again. They don't actually want that". Bullshit, Fed don't give a shit about inflation, they only care about wage growth (can't have the serfs getting paid too much as that effects profits), and deflation. |
|
|
|
I’d have to disagree with the above. I’m not seeing capitulation in the market right now at all. I’m seeing lower lows on low volume indicating that we are still awaiting that max pain moment. It seems unlikely that we will turn upwards without a massive volume spike corresponding with a ton of selling. I’ll feel better once that volume spike and drop are in the rear view and with a little luck it’ll happen without digging us too deep into the 30’s.
Honestly, I wouldn't know how to measure capitulation. But fear is pretty damn high right, many people have turned mega bearish on twitter, so I would think a relief bounce is in order at least. |
|
|
|
Just an idea and some hopium for a recovery.  I think we need a little hopium around here. I keep waiting for a bounce, but nothing. What you posted is as good as anything I guess. |
|
|
|
|
Remember all those wyckoff accumulation charts we saw in last year's mid year dip. It proved to be correct, I haven't seen any such analysis getting around now but things look similar. Has anybody seen any of that analysis done on this dip?
|
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/ByzGeneral/status/1479063644117864452This is starting to feel very similar to the 30k range now. The imbalance between bid & ask side is getting crazy. Spot bids keep getting filled with new orders showing up, meanwhile ask side fails to repopulate in any meaningful capacity.  You have to understand that there's an active (market orders) and a passive (limit orders) flow. The passive flow is what we see in these books. So the reason price goes down despite orderbook delta looking green that the active flow is selling. The active flow is the dominant flow (always, naturally) and it's what guides us. But it bumps into resistance in either direction. If the opposing passive side refuses to give out and keeps offering resistance the active flow will eventually just get exhausted. So sellers get exhausted and all the hands that want to fold already folded and they fail to break the bid side and there's not enough ammo anymore to repopulate the ask side. At this point it's a waiting game... Because price is sitting on top of a thick bid side and the active (sell) flow has given up. So we just kind of float around (with a slight slope downwards because of mining there's always some natural sell pressure, ranges on BTC almost always slope down) until... until bids get impatient. Some game theory comes into play here. Eventually some asshole is gonna get impatient and pull his limit bids and set them higher. Someone else catches on and decides to pull his limits and market buys! All of a sudden the active flow has turned into buying and the ask side is fragile because folding hands used up all their dry powder! Add to that a bit of open interest that can get used for squeezing purposes and suddenly you're slicing through the book like it's butter.  This is the feeling I got at the 30k range and I'm getting it again. Maybe there's a little less buying juice left in the tank than before, but I still think this range is probably accumulation and not re-distribution. "BUT MUH FUNDING ISNT NEGATIVE THE ENTIRE TIME". I know I would also prefer consistent neg funding rates, however there has been a consistent spot premium. Also... I heard bears are pussy ass bitches. /end 
|
|
|
|
I don’t know but I’m on that stage of bitcoin where “buying the dip” is no more exciting.
Reason, it’s effecting my “average buy price”… feels sad kind a seeing my average buying price goes up with every now and then so called dip. Is it really a dip when it’s still > $40k?
It may not be so exciting to BTFD now, but it will be very exciting when the dip is over and UPpity resumes. It's always been like this. I remember buying at $1200 and wanting to kill myself when it dropped to $800, in early January 2017. It's so odd thinking of those purchases isn't it. You spend all this time trying to buy at the right moment and then a few years later you couldn't care less and even the shittist of the buys are awesome. Hodling is the way. |
|
|
|
I don’t know but I’m on that stage of bitcoin where “buying the dip” is no more exciting.
Reason, it’s effecting my “average buy price”… feels sad kind a seeing my average buying price goes up with every now and then so called dip. Is it really a dip when it’s still > $40k?
IMO that is not a good way to think about it. If it's excess money that you are just going to save best to be in bitcoin than in a savings account earning 0.1%. Ignore average buy price of all positions, and focus on returns of each purchase instead. Old buys might be a 1000% return and new ones might be only 10% return, but 10% return is still better than 0.1% If I had only stayed at my first buy at a price of $80 and hadn't bought consistently over the years I would have very little money in comparison to now. |
|
|
|
It looks like we're at a somewhat crucial moment for the price as far as the trend is concerned. I think a break below $42K would look pretty bad on a chart and send some people heading for the hills. Maybe that's what this market needs for the next leg up, but it appears the bears are at the cusp of claiming a pretty large victory. The volume spike as we touched $42,500 makes it seem like we're due for a bounce today, but with the financial markets spooked by inflation and covid along with the Fed talking about raising rates earlier than expected and it seems like we may be in for a rough patch.
I posted the picture above showing illiquid supply, long-term holders at least are buying this dip and I don't think a break below 42k will change that. It seems to me that this is all Fed and traditional market driven, and yes it could easily push us lower just like we went lower in March 2020. Time will tell, but I'm certainly not liking how things are going so far. But let's not lose sight of what this is, it is a massive opportunity for those with long term vision who still want to buy. |
|
|
|
Giggling a bit that because the FED raising interest rates with a few basis points on their filthy fiat, the dollar value of Bitcoin goes down.
Why does the FED raise interest rates? Inflation, massive inflation. Do you really think the dollar is now all of the sudden a store of value again? Of course not, bitcoin is. Raising interest rates hurts those having debts, number one being your government. Interest would never be raised unless red alert.
This is the time to buy bitcoin, not sell.
Yes,.,. but they have not actually raised such interest rates yet... they ONLY said that they intend to raise them, and if they actually did raise them, they would probably end up having to soon thereafter roll back such an action... I just don't see how they can actually raise them .. they seem to have really painted their lil selfies in a corner... It's jawboning. Thing is lets say they raise rates, the economy will still need to be supported otherwise deflation will come in. So what they take with one hand they will give with another. And if they don't, and things crash, you watch how quickly they reverse. It would make The Flash jealous. On another note look at this divergence. Illiquid supply is coins going to addresses with little history of selling, this dip is still a buying opportunity.  |
|
|
|
|
Just thinking aloud here, god awful price. Really looks like someone is just trying to push the market down time and time again. In the mean time on-chain data is still pretty positive, how long can this divergence last I wonder. Keep thinking we should see a move in January at least, but the price isn't making much sense to me anymore.
|
|
|
|
Since you didn't bother to mention what country you were referring to I will do the same.
(see how easy it is to manipulate with graphs and numbers).
Changed my mind, my graph is for Sweden, I assume yours is for the UK since that's where LFC lives.
Kudos for keeping the deaths low. Unfortunately, 1500 Americans are dying from it every day. ... you need to unpack that "dying from CoVID" statistic quite a bit to get to the truth of the matter ... first there is the "dying WITH" versus "dying FROM" all-too-convenient distinction that somehow got lost early in the 'pandemic' and has not been rectified as yet ... then there is typical mortality versus age curve that needs subtracting out to arrive at an honest accounting for an excess deaths dying FROM CoVID ... and then to gain some perspective you would need to compare that much-reduced figure to fatalities for a similar respiratory virus, like the seasonal flu variant that circulates every season, during a non-COVID year with all the interventions, societal meddling and economy-destroying fuckery During this whole COVID period this has what has pissed me off the most, shitty data. I don't care which argument is correct, I just want detailed accurate data (then we'll know for sure who is correct). Very few seem to be complaining about this. How do we as a society perform accurate decision making and perform at peak efficiency without detailed accurate data. It's nuts. Honestly most of society's problems come down to this, we don't solve problems because we lack the data to do so or focus on the wrong data. I think this is intentional, look at GDP, it's held up as the most important economic data point around, but it measures nothing relevant to the everyday person. CPI is of course bullshit too. If we had accurate, broad, detailed data about say quality of life for the 99%, maybe, just maybe, governments would focus on improving things for the people, rather than pumping the economy with fiat to juice GDP. The world is nuts, and what is even more nuts is the arguing between the 99% on the symptoms of the problem rather than the problem. But I guess that is because Edward Bernays et al have won that war. |
|
|
|
|
Price is looking kind of shit, funding rates are bouncing around negative so there is definitely some short interest in the market. I imagine that tax time and holiday liquidity is playing a part, hopefully first/second week of January things pick up for us again. A nice short squeeze would be good.
|
|
|
|
Nice green dildo this morning, although it didn't reach my sell order yet. Yeah, but a full floor (or even 2 or 4 floors) condo isn't exactly a crash pad ! Unless you crash with an entourage (or a harem).
You don't? Not yet. Maybe when 1 BTC = 1 million dollars :d Pro-tip: timeshare. You can't own the keys to that, so I'm not interested. I mean the entourage. No point paying them to sit around when you're busy with other stuff. Ah ah, time share for people, I didn't think about that ! About Turkey, I was watching this vid : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5HCDvEaxSUThe country is really going downhill. The youtuber couldn't find anyone in the country (with knowledge) willing to even have an off the record conversation, because of fears of retaliation by the government. Cryptos are banned. Companies and people took tons of loans in foreign currencies (mainly euros and dollars) that they can't pay back, obviously. There is a new bridge in Istanbul with a 30 euros toll to cross it. Yes the toll is in euros ! Not in liras. That says a lot. But 30 euros, that's a crazy amount, I'm not paying that to cross a bridge and I earn 10 times more than people there. The Golden Gate bridge in SF costs less than 10 dollars to cross, by comparison. It's probably due to culture but I really don't get the concept of taking a loan in a foreign currency. It's just bound to go wrong. In France it's impossible for people to do (AFAIK) and the few institutions that did, including some cities borrowing in swiss francs, got burned badly after 2008. The worst thing is that in Turkey this had already happened about 20 years ago, hyperinflation etc., until the government created an "independent" central bank focussed on limiting inflation. What has Erdogan done ? Forced the central bank to lower interest rates, basically printing money like mad. Nothing wrong with taking a loan in another currency, but to do so without a hedge, especially when you live in a country like turkey is not a great idea. |
|
|
|
Stuck at 47k again it seems.
Less than three years ago we were stuck at 4.7k for a while. In a few years we might be pissed that it's stuck at 470k. You bet, we'll be pissed. Quote from the future. Stuck at 470k again it seems.  Remember this? I remember it well, completely pissed me off. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
