Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I AM getting really fucking offended at the Mod of this WO thread that you can post this fucking over the top rant

For what it's worth: infofront hasn't been online in 4 days.

After all Covid discussion here was forced, yes FORCED off this WO thread

I missed the part where that happened, but if that was the case, I assume infofront will use his delete button again when he's back.

This was supposed to be neutral ground to talk about Bitcoin and other world happenings.

I do like that, without the drama caused by other differences of opinion. Let's face it: "we" here have only one thing in common. Except for proudhon of course, we have nothing in common.

I am ONLY going to send an smerit to Loyce the voice if he was being sarcastic or attempting some kind of lame-ass humor.

If you were being serious Loyce, then no smerit will be sent to uie-pooie.

Yeah.. merit leverage (of one merit that you really would like to receive) at its finest is going to force you into compliance. I am a poet and did not know it.

[1714239635]

1714239635

[Hueristic]

On the orders of Russian authorities, ISPs in Russia have blocked TorProject.org, the main domain of the privacy-focused anti-censorship tool Tor. The move comes hot on the heels of moves to block access to the wider Tor network following allegations that the service helps people to access previously blocked sites and facilitates crime, including access to the dark web.

https://torrentfreak.com/russia-blocks-torproject-org-and-begins-blocking-of-wider-tor-network-211208/

[somac.]

On the orders of Russian authorities, ISPs in Russia have blocked TorProject.org, the main domain of the privacy-focused anti-censorship tool Tor. The move comes hot on the heels of moves to block access to the wider Tor network following allegations that the service helps people to access previously blocked sites and facilitates crime, including access to the dark web.

https://torrentfreak.com/russia-blocks-torproject-org-and-begins-blocking-of-wider-tor-network-211208/

Governments just looking out for the people again no doubt.

[JayJuanGee]

sub $10k = 2%
 
$10k-$20k = 6%

$20k to $30k = 12%

$30k to $40k = 18%

$40k to $46k = 23%

Total percentages for downspike scenarios:  61%

then hopefully you are able to line up your BTC buy orders in accordance with your assignment of probabilities accordingly.  So of course your numbers might be different than the ones that I have described above.. and maybe those are approximations of my own?  Don't get me wrong, the fact that I might concede a down spike having 61% odds of happening would not mean that I would necessarily consider any of these to be sustainable or even BTC's likely direction, since I still consider that we are in a bull market, but there could be some questions regarding how much more downward movement might happen, how long it might last, and then if such additional down does end up happening, then does such down change the odds of more down or take us out of the bull market after a certain price range or duration in being at such price range.

My lowest order is actually at 20000$.

O.k.  I suppose that we might be in a similar spot in terms of our current choices regarding our balancing of our actual preparations... sometimes my orders will be in alignment with the maximum downside prices that I believe are possible, and other times, my orders might fall short, even though I might consider that if the price goes below my preparation area, then I may well need to garner some more money, but I am not going to be psychologically devastated because I had already mentally prepared for that the price might go to some lower point even though I had not dedicated finances to such extreme scenario(s).

Why do you only allocate 61% and not 100% ?

Of course there is a little bit out of my ass in these numbers, and maybe I should attempt to be more granular.. but in some sense the other 39% (that I did not assign within that list) would be ascribed to scenarios in which there was never any spike down below $46k.. so I do realize that my retaining 39% in reserve for the possibility that their is NO down below $46k (even a spike) might be a bit too big of a probability assignment for that scenario, and maybe I was ball-parking the whole matter a bit too much.

A few days ago, when I attempted to assign my then probabilities to the BTC price range in which the top will be for this cycle and when the cycle will end, I made sure that the answers to those two questions each added up to 100%, and of course both UP and down were included (while focusing on UP), but the question was different because of talking about where the top might be versus the question that I was attempting to answer in my post to you in regards to where I was estimating the bottom might spike down to (and would ONLY necessarily need to be temporary.. but of course, if the BTC price really did end up going down into some of those lower ranges, then there might be a need to reconsider the assignment of probabilities of where the bottom might end up spiking down to).

Why do you only allocate 61% and not 100% ?

39% are upside scenarios?

Yes, correct... my ballpark estimate of the upside is more or less what I had considered the remainder of 39%..

I did not sell any btc to increase spending, but had to make some moves in a couple of unnamed alts that had obscene gains in 2021.
House remodeling is expensive.
My bitcoin stash keeps accumulating (slowly) due to mining rewards.

For those of you who like viewing some expensive RE (I have to say that the buildings themselves are amazing from the engineering perspective), check out this, although this is probably out of reach for almost everyone here...but in 10 years...who knows:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wehsz38P74g

In New York?

OK as your second or third home, I guess.

maybe..the vibe from a promoter/re agent was that this is like owning a Picasso-something very unique and there are only about 400-500 apt total in skyscrapers like this (in NY).

That's part of the quirks about any realestate, no?  Sure, part of the value proposition will be location, location, location, and there will be both subjective and objective aspects regarding how much that real estate will be, and it also seems that if there are more people who agree about the location and the view and the convenience, then it is going to be easier to charge a higher price for it and potentially it would retain its value too.. but sometimes when the property is under various controls of others, then there could be future developments or happenings that increase or decrease the value too... so you may have thought that the luxury condo on the 65th floor in billionaires alley was going to be able to sell for x * 50% in 5 years, but maybe it ends up that the single family home with a view on long island ended up retaining its value much better.. and there were fewer parties involved (even change of ownership of the overall building and some of those contractual relations therein.. who wants to end up in court or in a class action law suit or find out that there was some other nefarious happenings that ends up bringing down the value of the condos within some of those properties.. maybe some suffer bad fate and others end up weathering the various future happenings better).   

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

Yeah but they also have made their platform upgradeable.

Did you read the article?  the guy really did a great job of putting all the updated info in there with standard benchmarking as well.

Sure, I'll take another look when it's released. In the meantime, I have a February deadline and the 200 for the pinephone with convergence kit is a fairly friendly amount.

[Richy_T]

Yeah, but a full floor (or even 2 or 4 floors) condo isn't exactly a crash pad ! Unless you crash with an entourage (or a harem).

You don't?

Not yet. Maybe when 1 BTC = 1 million dollars :d

Pro-tip: timeshare.

[Richy_T]

On the orders of Russian authorities, ISPs in Russia have blocked TorProject.org, the main domain of the privacy-focused anti-censorship tool Tor. The move comes hot on the heels of moves to block access to the wider Tor network following allegations that the service helps people to access previously blocked sites and facilitates crime, including access to the dark web.

https://torrentfreak.com/russia-blocks-torproject-org-and-begins-blocking-of-wider-tor-network-211208/

Good. They could do with another round of improving the protocol. The TLAs are probably pulling all the analysis realtime by this point.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[naim027]

This is why every country should adopt Bitcoin. Bitcoin could be a solution. There are a lot of countries that have backdated governments (Old Generation Politicians) Who don't know what is Bitcoin and How it works. Example: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan.

Turkey is a cautionary tale and perhaps a harbinger of things to come for other countries with weakening currencies. The Turkish lira has fallen by nearly 45% against the dollar so far this year and has plummeted as much as 20% in one week. Economists believe that Turkey could be on the brink of hyperinflation as year-to-year Consumer Price Index could end up over 30% in the coming months.

Source: Turkey’s Inflation Is An Example Of Why We Need Bitcoin

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

Buddy breaker 
The market put its red glasses on 

[Hueristic]

On the orders of Russian authorities, ISPs in Russia have blocked TorProject.org, the main domain of the privacy-focused anti-censorship tool Tor. The move comes hot on the heels of moves to block access to the wider Tor network following allegations that the service helps people to access previously blocked sites and facilitates crime, including access to the dark web.

https://torrentfreak.com/russia-blocks-torproject-org-and-begins-blocking-of-wider-tor-network-211208/

Good. They could do with another round of improving the protocol. The TLAs are probably pulling all the analysis realtime by this point.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQDbfHSjbnI

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

On the orders of Russian authorities, ISPs in Russia have blocked TorProject.org, the main domain of the privacy-focused anti-censorship tool Tor. The move comes hot on the heels of moves to block access to the wider Tor network following allegations that the service helps people to access previously blocked sites and facilitates crime, including access to the dark web.

https://torrentfreak.com/russia-blocks-torproject-org-and-begins-blocking-of-wider-tor-network-211208/

Thanks for that link. I'm fan of Tor and the freedom it gives us by safeguarding our privacy on the net. Sadly, Russia seems to be at it again, trying to ban the unbannable, just like China recently tried (again) to ban the unbannable. They will both fail IMHO (China already did, judging from Bitcoin's hash rate and miner relocations). I see Aleksei Navalny being mentioned in the article, the anti-corruption activist who was poisoned in 2020 with a Novichok nerve agent by Putin and his mafia secret agent gang, and nearly died. They tried to silence him too, as they did (and in most cases succeeded) with so many anti-corruption journalists since Putin assumed power.

I say to them, bring it on and see what you get!

[BitcoinBunny]

Bitcoin in Turkish Lira in just one year.

The path every fiat currency will take eventually: absolutely worthless.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BobLawblaw]

It seems many people are fairly bearish right now.

I pulled a block of coins I had loaded up on the exchange back into my own custody the other day.

No freaking way I'm selling in this messy volatility.

Doing whatever small things I can do to help contribute to supply shock on the exchanges.

[somac.]

It seems many people are fairly bearish right now.

I pulled a block of coins I had loaded up on the exchange back into my own custody the other day.

No freaking way I'm selling in this messy volatility.

Doing whatever small things I can do to help contribute to supply shock on the exchanges.

Good to hear.

Traditional finance is pretty bearish right now too. There has to be a lot of short positioning happening everywhere, one word from the central banks or governments and a short squeeze is very likely.