Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

I explicitly believe that there will be new highs in 2022, but i also have an eye on exchange illiquidity, which would make sense to me to strike somewhere in 2023.
You may call it a triple-top. The unprobabilistic part is the fact we didn't have this formation before, which is supporting my idea (or vision) of said outplay.
And it could be the slow squeeze of illiquidity that will make the 2022 blow-off less steep, and the liquidity crunch in 2023 more unexpected from the now terms of view.

Of course, i would be a moron if i would only believe in this one scenario and not prepare for other possibilities (which are more likely to play out by probability), even more so reading your past postings and ignoring their message to develop a flexible strategy, or strategies.  
But since this is an inverse approach to the ole school probability type of reasoning, i would not be surprised if future happenings would come near that.
Just mainly because of SOMA fundamentals. And Murphy's Law...

Short version: Bullish on 2022, but not suprised if 2023 gets even more bullish because of the effect of the supply-crunch, when the majority would expect the slow fade out of the bear market. As you know, i plan to hodl the vast majority of my stash for years and decades to come, i will be fine whatever will come.

This scenario looks pretty realistic to me. Triple top is something we haven't witnessed before but why not? I mean BTC can't be that predictable to follow the same pattern over and over again. Back in October one of my nocoiner friends mentioned something about taking a loan and buying BTC as it's bound to skyrocket in December. Easy-peasy, piece of cake, no-brainer. That's when I understood moonshot is not going to happen most probably.  

Sorry, there are no triple tops or triple bottoms...with >90% probability.

Well I'm not a trader or a TA person I'm not sure if it exists or not (well it does in theory but I'm not sure about RL) I just used this term to make it clear there's going to be a third top (wave) going considerably higher than 2 previous ones. If you're good at TA you can come up with a correct term for that.  

It is the correct term, but unicorn is also a correct term. I was simply saying that it almost never happens.
IMHO, people are still counting on the swoosh back up in bitcoin, but we might have a flat before this.

BTW, TA may rarely predict something, it is almost always post factum.
However, the same could be said about the fundamental analysis, which often misses something "fundamental' and the results are skewed.
Tons of people were "fundamentally" bearish on Amazon from 2000 to 2015, but they were wrong because market anticipated large current earnings and almost unshakable market position of that company. Market was using advanced algebra when some or even most analysts were following simple arithmetic.

[1715210078]

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[1715210078]

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[1715210078]

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[suchmoon]

Talking about GPUs..I wanted to build a new PC..got everything, apart from the screwy GPU, which is nowhere to be found for a "normal" price.
There is no point of paying triple price, because for that price you can almost get the whole PC with the "offending" 3080 in it..but I just wanted the card. No can do, for more than a year already.

Used GTX 1080 for $400-500 (still overpriced but "only" by 100% or so) plays all games that I can throw at it. The whole GPU shitshow was already going off the rails before this "shortage" and I refuse to participate in it. (other than repairing blown mosfets and reselling because that's just business)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

Talking about GPUs..I wanted to build a new PC..got everything, apart from the screwy GPU, which is nowhere to be found for a "normal" price.
There is no point of paying triple price, because for that price you can almost get the whole PC with the "offending" 3080 in it..but I just wanted the card. No can do, for more than a year already.

Used GTX 1080 for $400-500 (still overpriced but "only" by 100% or so) plays all games that I can throw at it. The whole GPU shitshow was already going off the rails before this "shortage" and I refuse to participate in it. (other than repairing blown mosfets and reselling because that's just business)

I sold 2 old RX-580's for $500 apiece a couple months ago just because its retarded.

[cAPSLOCK]

It seems many people are fairly bearish right now.

I pulled a block of coins I had loaded up on the exchange back into my own custody the other day.

No freaking way I'm selling in this messy volatility.

Doing whatever small things I can do to help contribute to supply shock on the exchanges.

As much as Trace Meyer turned out to be a douchebag with his whole "Buy my shitcoin on TradeOgre" misstep the whole "Proof of keys" idea was a really good one.

It suffered from two issues.

1.  It had a stupid name.  The name only appealed to people who already held all their own coins.
2.  It ignores human nature.  There are several reasons why humans don't want to hold their own keys... and they really never will.

But the idea was genius.  If we all held or own coins it would absolutely change the reality of the markets instantly.  But it's akin to going into that kind of heroin treatment where they put you in a coma and shoot you chock full of opioid antagonists.  It's the express lane to getting off the teat.  But you still have to want it to do it.

But people will do Bitcoin the way they have always done money.  They will have a third party look over their horde.

Anyway, I thank you for taking your coins off.  I know you generally hold your coins, but every little bit helps!

(Also, seriously...  what Meyer just full of it?  He always talked about buying BTC at $0.25.  His whole scam reeked of him needing to bolster his stack... I wonder if he was really mostly talk.) 

[Richy_T]

Yes, some people will get worked up about the guy's choice to shave off 9 BTC all at once, maybe even yours truly, because I am a bit concerned about shaving off 25% all at once, but I would not have been so much concerned about shaving off 5% here and 5% there and maybe even getting to the same result of shaving off 9 BTC at some point (25%).

Quality of life. Anyone who hasn't fully owned their own house (property taxes notwithstanding), it's quite nice. Fancy cars though? I would also consider waiting for a bit higher BTC prices before buying a house that much but then again, every time I look at house prices, they are higher than what I'm expecting.

[Richy_T]

Cerner's financials say that their Total Debt to Equity ratio (FY) (%) = 29.81.

Which means that out of that $28.3B equity valuation, they have $8.3B in total debt outstanding. If you believe the valuation estimate, that's still nearly a third of the company that is all debt! And over the past 4 years, their accumulating debt had been growing at a much faster rates than their profits. Which means they were on track to eventually going belly up.

It's possible Oracle wants key technologies or even employees. I agree that there's way too much money sloshing around though.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

I sold 2 old RX-580's for $500 apiece a couple months ago just because its retarded.

RX580 is currently my best card. It's in my VR rig which I have taken to playing Cyberpunk on as my main gaming PC just wasn't up to it (the 580 is a bit borderline TBH).

[philipma1957]

Yes, some people will get worked up about the guy's choice to shave off 9 BTC all at once, maybe even yours truly, because I am a bit concerned about shaving off 25% all at once, but I would not have been so much concerned about shaving off 5% here and 5% there and maybe even getting to the same result of shaving off 9 BTC at some point (25%).

Quality of life. Anyone who hasn't fully owned their own house (property taxes notwithstanding), it's quite nice. Fancy cars though? I would also consider waiting for a bit higher prices but then again, every time I look at house prices, they are higher than what I'm expecting.

Took me many years to be debt free. It is a nice thing.

[somac.]

Stuck at 47k again it seems.

[HI-TEC99]

Stuck at 47k again it seems.

Less than three years ago we were stuck at 4.7k for a while.

In a few years we might be pissed that it's stuck at 470k.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

Stuck at 47k again it seems.

Less than three years ago we were stuck at 4.7k for a while.

In a few years we might be pissed that it's stuck at 470k.

You bet, we'll be pissed.

[HI-TEC99]

Stuck at 47k again it seems.

Less than three years ago we were stuck at 4.7k for a while.

In a few years we might be pissed that it's stuck at 470k.

You bet, we'll be pissed.

Quote from the future.

Stuck at 470k again it seems.  

Remember this?

Coin



Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I explicitly believe that there will be new highs in 2022, but i also have an eye on exchange illiquidity, which would make sense to me to strike somewhere in 2023.
You may call it a triple-top. The unprobabilistic part is the fact we didn't have this formation before, which is supporting my idea (or vision) of said outplay.
And it could be the slow squeeze of illiquidity that will make the 2022 blow-off less steep, and the liquidity crunch in 2023 more unexpected from the now terms of view.

Of course, i would be a moron if i would only believe in this one scenario and not prepare for other possibilities (which are more likely to play out by probability), even more so reading your past postings and ignoring their message to develop a flexible strategy, or strategies.  
But since this is an inverse approach to the ole school probability type of reasoning, i would not be surprised if future happenings would come near that.
Just mainly because of SOMA fundamentals. And Murphy's Law...

Short version: Bullish on 2022, but not suprised if 2023 gets even more bullish because of the effect of the supply-crunch, when the majority would expect the slow fade out of the bear market. As you know, i plan to hodl the vast majority of my stash for years and decades to come, i will be fine whatever will come.

This scenario looks pretty realistic to me. Triple top is something we haven't witnessed before but why not? I mean BTC can't be that predictable to follow the same pattern over and over again. Back in October one of my nocoiner friends mentioned something about taking a loan and buying BTC as it's bound to skyrocket in December. Easy-peasy, piece of cake, no-brainer. That's when I understood moonshot is not going to happen most probably.  

Sorry, there are no triple tops or triple bottoms...with >90% probability.

Well I'm not a trader or a TA person I'm not sure if it exists or not (well it does in theory but I'm not sure about RL) I just used this term to make it clear there's going to be a third top (wave) going considerably higher than 2 previous ones. If you're good at TA you can come up with a correct term for that.  

It is the correct term, but unicorn is also a correct term. I was simply saying that it almost never happens.
IMHO, people are still counting on the swoosh back up in bitcoin, but we might have a flat before this.

Your further explanation (Biodom) shows us that you did not really have a very good answer in the first place. 

So we well could end up having one top at $64,895 in mid-April, and then a second top of $69k-ish in early November and then a third attempt to break above $69k in January, February or maybe even as late as the 2nd quarter of 2022 - and then maybe that would not be a triple top but just some waves of UPpity BTC price dynamics that show that the top is just getting higher and higher.  And, sure the price might not end up performing how people had been expecting it to perform with an exponential price move on the second time, but instead an exponential price rise ends up happening on the third time around.. or maybe that third time around does not end up being a an exponential rise but instead merely another higher top that is 10% to 30% higher than the previous top.... .. so what's wrong with that?

It seems to be just ongoing upward price pressures and the catching up of buying support that could end up pushing bitcoin into another exponential up phase.. of maybe 5x to 6x or maybe just some kind of price move that ends up playing out smaller than 5x.  could be scurve adoption.  could be network effects.  It's not like bitcoin is a mature asset in which it would be restricted by those kinds of ideas of double or triple tops..

BTW, TA may rarely predict something, it is almost always post factum.

Fair point.

However, the same could be said about the fundamental analysis, which often misses something "fundamental' and the results are skewed.

You mean that we do not have the pressures of exponential s-curve effects that are based on network effects and metcalfe principles that are affecting bitcoin's price... .. the facts don't seem to support your suggestion that fundamentals like that are actually lacking...

Tons of people were "fundamentally" bearish on Amazon from 2000 to 2015, but they were wrong because market anticipated large current earnings and almost unshakable market position of that company. Market was using advanced algebra when some or even most analysts were following simple arithmetic.

Hm?  So are you suggesting that the fundamentals in bitcoin might be wrong in the sense of our bullish case still existing or are you making some other point about anything could happen?

Yes, some people will get worked up about the guy's choice to shave off 9 BTC all at once, maybe even yours truly, because I am a bit concerned about shaving off 25% all at once, but I would not have been so much concerned about shaving off 5% here and 5% there and maybe even getting to the same result of shaving off 9 BTC at some point (25%).

Quality of life. Anyone who hasn't fully owned their own house (property taxes notwithstanding), it's quite nice. Fancy cars though? I would also consider waiting for a bit higher BTC prices before buying a house that much but then again, every time I look at house prices, they are higher than what I'm expecting.

I thought that my point had more to do with how much he was cashing out all at once.. which was 25%, and my whole speal was an attempt to show another way to justify how much to cash out, and my conclusion would have ended up with cashing out less than 1/4 what he did... ..

In other words, I was not really very critical in his description of the various items that he said that he had chosen to spend those 9 BTC (25% of his stash).. just the seemingly doing it in such a large chunk... remember LFC seems to have done a very similar thing recently.... and maybe from a similar perspective in terms of feeling that maybe he had a bit too much exposure to bitcoin.. so would likely not have been so persuaded by my alternative way of attempting to justify how much to cash out..

Yes, some people will get worked up about the guy's choice to shave off 9 BTC all at once, maybe even yours truly, because I am a bit concerned about shaving off 25% all at once, but I would not have been so much concerned about shaving off 5% here and 5% there and maybe even getting to the same result of shaving off 9 BTC at some point (25%).

Quality of life. Anyone who hasn't fully owned their own house (property taxes notwithstanding), it's quite nice. Fancy cars though? I would also consider waiting for a bit higher prices but then again, every time I look at house prices, they are higher than what I'm expecting.

Took me many years to be debt free. It is a nice thing.

I will admit that I cannot really discount some of the subjective value that comes from putting a kind of priority on that angle, even though it did not really take away from my attempt to frame the cashing out in a less extreme way.. an attempt to play incrementalism a bit more for the reasons that I had already stated.

Furthermore, we should appreciate that there is some value in trying to leverage debt - especially when it comes to bitcoin management.. so getting debt free might not be completely a great rationale to cash out 25% at once rather than a smaller amount such as 4-10% or something like that.. and yes, I know that there can be many ways to say.. "but... blah blah blah." and that is part of the reason that I attempted to describe why I would consider my anticipation of BTC's price performance in the next 1-3 years to figure out how much to cash out based on that, and it seems to me that odds are pretty high that $55k will be reached again in less than 2 years and for that reason I maximized the amount that I would have cashed out to have been either 1 or 2 years worth of liquidity rather than 3 years.. which for me added up to 1.4 BTC to 2.8 BTC maximum (in the context of having had hypothetically held 35 BTC as cryptorich13 had proclaimed).

Quote from the future.

Stuck at 470k again it seems.  

December 2025 seems more realistic...

December 2024 seems too soon.. that's just my tentative thoughts.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

I think that everyone should ponder this question: why this cycle so far did not pan out as expected by almost EVERYBODY?
To some it might mean that the exponential boom-bust cycles are over.

To me it means that bitcoin is in transition: it has to go over the technological chasm from the early adopters to early majority.
The volatility in that is less than during "innovators" and "early adopters" stages, but still significant with periodic setbacks.

I am perfectly fine if the four year cycles are mostly gone and we are simply in a price discovery mode.
I expect the prices much higher eventually, but short term the price seems chaotic (does not really follow any prior predictions).
It zigs when it was "supposed" to zag, etc. This 'perversion' actually started in 2019, but most people dismissed it as a one-off aberration.

Remember "the fractal" idea? It fit for a while. All TA guys seem to be befuddled if not outright 'amused' by the current situation.
Albeit, we have no coherent theory of what to expect since S2F is currently on the brink...barely hugging the lower grey band.
planB did not throw in the towel yet, but it is getting close, unfortunately.
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1472241754837557256

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

Stuck at 47k again it seems.

Less than three years ago we were stuck at 4.7k for a while.

In a few years we might be pissed that it's stuck at 470k.

You bet, we'll be pissed.

Quote from the future.

Stuck at 470k again it seems.  

Remember this?

Coin



Explanation

I remember it well, completely pissed me off.