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501  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 24, 2022, 05:40:09 AM
....So... Putin just invaded Donbass.

Bitcoin discounts incoming
The next 24 hours are critical

Yeah looks like localized to Donbass...so far

CNN and FOX journalists in Kiev report hearing explosions.


Yeah now seeing missile attacks all over Ukraine. They're taking out Ukraines infrastructure, shock and awe. So far no troop crossings that i can find
502  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 24, 2022, 04:57:24 AM
....So... Putin just invaded Donbass.

Bitcoin discounts incoming
The next 24 hours are critical

Yeah looks like localized to Donbass...so far
503  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 23, 2022, 11:26:27 PM
Can we not politicize ChartBuddy?

How is it political? I even resisted the urge to add "Let's go, Brandon" to the background. By the way, let's go, Brandon.

Shame, putting ChartBuddy on ignore for now
504  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 23, 2022, 04:40:58 PM
Can we not politicize ChartBuddy?
505  Economy / Speculation / Re: The term Holodomor emphasises the famine's man-made and intentional on: February 22, 2022, 04:22:19 AM
I don’t think Russia are going to invade Ukraine.

To my understanding, Russia will not be invading Ukraine, because they would not be able to survive the trade sanctions levied against them, as a result.

They have immunity to all trade sanctions. Russia doesn't want to feed 40 million people of a bankrupted country like Ukraine. Let Anglo-Americans and their EU satellites feed them. Russia will just wait till West Ponzi collapses in full.


Holodomor
Famine



Quote
From famine to extermination
Between 1931 and 1934 at least 5 million people perished of hunger all across the U.S.S.R. Among them, according to a study conducted by a team of Ukrainian demographers, were at least 3.9 million Ukrainians.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

Interesting how you choose to concentrate on famine in Ukraine but totally disregard loss of life in other Soviet republics. Like loss of 38% - 42% of all of Kazakhs. Think context matters, no?

Quote
1.5 million people died in Soviet Kazakhstan, then part of the Russian Socialist Federative Soviet Republic in the Soviet Union, of whom 1.3 million were ethnic Kazakhs
Quote
An estimated 38[7] to 42[11] percent of all Kazakhs died, the highest percentage of any ethnic group killed by the Soviet famine of 1932–1933.
Quote
The famine began in winter 1930, a full year before the other famine in Ukraine, termed the Holodomor
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakh_famine_of_1931%E2%80%931933

And overall https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_famine_of_1932%E2%80%931933

Side note, the architect of this, Joseph Stalin was from Georgia

Edit: And if were concentrating on absolute numbers, 10yrs prior, Russian famine of 1921–1922

Quote
This famine killed an estimated 5 million people, primarily affecting the Volga and Ural River regions
Quote
Aid from outside Soviet Russia was initially rejected...Lenin refused this as interference in Russian internal affairs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_famine_of_1921%E2%80%931922

And then 10yrs later there was Soviet famine of 1946–1947
Quote
900,000 (Ó Gráda, 2019)[2] with 500,000 deaths in the RSFSR and the BSSR, 200,000 in the UkSSR and 100,000 in the MSSR.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_famine_of_1946%E2%80%931947

tons of suffering all over
506  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 09, 2022, 05:26:49 AM
I guess it's a good thing that criminals are idiots.

Cobra doesn't agree with this.

Are we seriously to believe the absurd notion that someone capable of hacking 100K BTC stores the private keys in… CLOUD STORAGE?

I'm just surprised how many actually believe that story. How much more ridiculous a story must be for people to laugh at the source and not the silly story that they put out?
507  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 03, 2022, 11:20:01 PM
UK inflation now at 7.25%

Bank of England raises interest rates 0.25% today

Average household income declining at the fastest rate since 1990.



Andrew Bailey (Governor of the Bank of England): "What we can do is try to prevent inflation spreading, stop inflation becoming more engrained in the system".

BBC reporter: "Are you trying to get inside people’s heads and ask them not to ask for too high a pay rise?

Andrew Bailey: "Broadly, yes.

BBC reporter: "Really?"

Andrew Bailey: "Yes, in the sense of saying we do need to see a moderation in wage rises. Now that’s painful."



So now we have the Bank of England not even mentioning their rampant money printing as a driver of inflation, now trying to persuade people not to ask for pay rises even though their cost of living is spiraling whilst their incomes decline in real terms. In other words, "yes it's painful but the people need to suffer this pain while we stealth tax them through inflation, in order to prevent runaway inflation. Suck it up."

(*you can replace Bank of England with any other central bank of your choosing. The narrative is the same).

They're losing control of the monster they've created. Fuck this system. Buy Bitcoin.



Sauce it up
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/business-60254719

Ahh so its those evil workers that ask for more money from their corporate overlords to lessen the reduction in their buying power, that are causing the inflation? Think i got it right
508  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2022, 06:37:31 PM


Some stats for context, 67% population of Crimea were ethnic Russians, 80% of population spoke Russian as their primary language, and naturally this is how they voted, Yanukovych (blue) was the pro Russian president that ended up winning

Current military conflict is in the two regions that voted 91% and 93% for pro Russian president.

So Hm: based on the voting patterns one could make a pretty reasonable assumption that the area of "land" just above Ukraine, to the right of Poland, and below Lit/Latvia/Estonia would probably be pretty highly "Pro someone other than Russia". Would Russia be ok in ceding that territory in exchange for the areas that voted Russian in the Ukraine?

I think they secretly would, although they won't admit it, ever.

The problem is, Putin (or Russia in general) DGAF what "the people" want. Do any rulers ever? What Russia very, very badly wants is a sea port in "warm" waters. Crimea's Black Sea is a good start.

But the thing is, they always had that Black Sea sea port, it was theirs to loose. They didn't gain a new port, the options in front of them was to either do nothing and loose their black sea fleet, or keep their fleet and suffer the consequence. A blind person wouldn't be surprised by the outcome, but US conveniently first gave out cookies and then cries how Russia is a bully.

As far as the war drums, Ukraine's west clearly doesn't like Russia (where 90+% voted against them, and don't want to speak their language) invading them would be a political suicide. So nothing happens (beyond small localized conflicts like they've been having for the past 8yrs), west gets to claim how they stopped invasion of a big bad bear and playing on that fear push more nations to join and get more NATO bases on Russian border.  
509  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2022, 04:50:19 PM


Some stats for context, 67% population of Crimea were ethnic Russians, 80% of population spoke Russian as their primary language, and naturally this is how they voted, Yanukovych (blue) was the pro Russian president that ended up winning

Current military conflict is in the two regions that voted 91% and 93% for pro Russian president.

So Hm: based on the voting patterns one could make a pretty reasonable assumption that the area of "land" just above Ukraine, to the right of Poland, and below Lit/Latvia/Estonia would probably be pretty highly "Pro someone other than Russia". Would Russia be ok in ceding that territory in exchange for the areas that voted Russian in the Ukraine?

After all it is geography....


Rhetorical question, and can easily be circled back to goldkingcoiner point if Russia then should be ok in ceding Crimea in the first place, not constructive.

I was simply pointing out the status quo, the expansion of NATO and the amount of anti-Russian bases in proximity to Russian boarders.  Now the ball is on Russias side, their options is to either do nothing and watch their sphere of influence continue to erode, or do something and be labeled bully. Believe that's the reason some smart people created the Doomsday clock back in the day, which way do you think these actions move the hands of that clock?
510  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2022, 03:20:05 PM
Regarding the Russo Ukranian conflict, there is no doubt that Russia is the aggressor and 100% to blame.

Excusing Russia's war and annexation of parts of Ukraine with historical reasons is just wrong.
With that kind of reasoning Sweden can claim the Baltic states (including Finland, yes it's really ours) and St Petersburg "for historical reasons".

Are you referring to how Khrushchev gave Crimea to Ukraine without a referendum, which was illegal? And he was drunk while doing so.

"Neither the Constitution of the RSFSR or the USSR Constitution provide powers of the Presidium Supreme Soviet of the USSR for the consideration of the changes in the constitutional legal status of the Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic, members of the union republics. In view of the above, the decision adopted in 1954 by the Presidium of the Supreme Soviets of the RSFSR and the Soviet on the transfer of the Crimean region of the RSFSR to the USSR, did not correspond to the Constitution (Fundamental Law) of the RSFSR and the Constitution (Fundamental Law) of the USSR."

Was taking back Crimea after all this time a dick move? yes.

But morally, I am with Russia on this one, especially because the Crimeans don't seem to be complaining about not being slaughtered by extremists after Maidan or their quality of life skyrocketing.

The US doesn't give two shits about Ukraine except for building a NATO base so they can exert more influence and pressure on Russia.
Europe pretends to care, as not to anger the US. Except for Germany who openly cares more about their gas bill not going up.



Yes, I do mean when Krustjev gave Crimea to Ukraine.

Well If my neighboring country just invaded and annexed part of my land I too would be happy to have NATO bases on my land to help defend against the invader. If the Russians do get a NATO base on their border it's their own doing.
The Russians have Iskander missiles in Königsberg that can reach Sweden and several NATO countries, NATO has, to the best of my knowledge, nothing like that pointed at Russia.
Russia is a big bully that constantly pokes its neighbors and sometimes invade them a little. They need to be put in their place.

Its like someone spooking the bear and bear attacking those that are near by, sure technically the bear is the aggressor.



Some stats for context, 67% population of Crimea were ethnic Russians, 80% of population spoke Russian as their primary language, and naturally this is how they voted, Yanukovych (blue) was the pro Russian president that ended up winning

Current military conflict is in the two regions that voted 91% and 93% for pro Russian president.

Then the infamous images of Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland giving out cookies to the opposition during the coup/revolution.


Ethics aside, a thinktank made up of kindergartners would be able to conclude that Russia has to do something to stay relevant and not to loose face.

Its like if in the dick measuring contest Russian department of State started giving out cookies to anti-American protests and setting up bases in a country near American boarders...oh wait.


511  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 27, 2022, 03:25:02 PM
Exactly, I am just trying to believe and support my theory and my ideas.

If you call me an idiot/troll just because my Price Target is below the current price, that's stupid.
What If I said prices will go down at 60k? I don't think anyone would have called it BS.

I would be careful being too married or attached to your glorious TA predictions.

You've been wrong with your insinuations before. I'm doubtful we will hit $92K by 2/1/22.
Oh yea, let's bring the old charts where I was wrong as I was learning TA (which no one can be perfect in)
And it went up by 96% before falling down, too bad right.

And simply ignore the charts where I was right  Cheesy

Unbiased Price Prediction on the basis of Previous Chart Action

Bullish in the Long run.



Shall we ignore the coin too when the outcome of a flip is not as expected, and only concentrate on correct outcomes. Hmm in that case my coins should start their youtoobs channel
512  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 25, 2022, 11:56:29 PM
There is something that bothers me for some time. If someone knows the answers, it would be nice to share them. It is about the derivate markets. It is clear that the cash settled futures contract divert money from acutal invesment in Bitcoin, thus creating an artificial paper liquidity. My quiestion is whether what is happening on the derivate exchanges can lead to a pump/dump of the spot exchanges? It is supposed that derivate exchanges follow the spot exchanges with their index price, not vice  versa, but is this the reality? I have the gut feeling that the spot exchange traders look at the derivate exchanges and if they see a dump there, they also sell. Which is illogical especially for the cash settled contracts. Because nobody can transfer a paper bitcoin and sell it on a spot exchange. But the daily traders have proved many times they have no clue about... anything, even basic math. Also, I wonder if Binance has a physical futures contracts like bakkt,  because a lot of derivate trade is going on there lately and it seems to has an impact on the spot price.

Can paper derivatives effect the underlying? Yes. Can it get to the point where the tail's wagging the dog? Possible, and therere examples in history when that happened, but i don't believe that it's happening with BTC.

Just a hypothetical, lets image you have 100.000 cash settled futures contracts which you got at an average price of $40.000/BTC, they expire today and lets say they use exchange's XYZ spot as a reference rate.
Imagine that current spot on XYZ is $37.500.
1-You don't do anything, Futures settle at $37,5k, you loose $2.500 per contract so you're down $250MM total. That sucks!

2-You look at XYZ and notice that the ask side of the book is pretty thin, you estimate that there will only be BTC5.000 for sale between $37,5k and $42,5k. You transfer $200MM to XYZ and buy everything in sight until $42.5k.
=You're successful and price closes at $42,5k. You're up $2,5k per contract or $250M from futures, but you bought BTC5k for $200MM, so you end up with $50MM and BTC5k profit.
=You're not successful and market actually moves against you and settles at $35k. You lost $500MM on futures, and paid $200M for BTC5k which are now only worth $175MM. -525MM REKT

And it works the other way around. If you sold futures, and then try to short the spot to bring it down so you're more profitable.

Problem is you need to corner the market to be able to pull this off, and there are always bigger whales. Futures platforms are not that dumb too, so theyre using weighted averages across multiple exchanges as a reference rate https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/cryptocurrency-indices/cf-bitcoin-reference-rate.html

There are hedge fund market makers and then there are youtube daily traders that cant do basic math. Don't confuse the two.

BAKKT is not even on a map anymore, do they even still offer BTC futures? Binance is currently the biggest dog and believe they're BTC settled. https://analytics.skew.com/dashboard/bitcoin-futures

Edit: fillippone popped in right on time, he has a whole thread on futures https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188060
513  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 25, 2022, 10:13:39 PM
A little bit of light on a dim Monday.  I feel exactly zero sympathy for this asshole.  I feel a little bit for his family.  But I watched him personally cheer on the lawsuits coming out of the project he supported.

What he built was so CLOSE to a good idea but based on such a bad idea there was no saving it.



One more thing.

He STILL hasn't learned his lesson.  Twetch did not fail because of bad PR!  It failed EXACTLY BECAUSE it was anchored to a centralized chain and the centralized actors decided to kick him out, and the market was wise enough to also value the centralized project where it belonged.  But this is just the sort of failure that awaits those who build on a centralized blockchain and then do not stay on the right side of those who control the database...  Twetch did not fail because Calvin likes little girls.  It failed because the idea of writing the entire internet to a blockchain is a retarded.

Asshole still doesn't get it.  (Sorry to any of you WO brothers who still hold out hope for the big chains.)

For some reason i was thinking that watching that shitshow BSv fall apart would be more enjoyable. Instead it's like watching cult followers coming outside after the cult has collapsed, they're scared, they don't know what to do next, they reveal the true cost of the cult on themselves and their families, and they're asking for forgiveness. At least he had the intelligence to finally open his eyes, but as you said he's still oblivious to the true root cause of his failure, that he built on a closed/centralized chain.
514  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 21, 2022, 10:57:09 PM
Blood on the streets yet?
515  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 20, 2021, 03:02:30 PM
It sucks that anti-vaxxers's choice is effecting (sic) everyone around them and not just themselves

Dude. Holy fucking shit... Stahp. Plz.

Well that's the problem. Covid-19 keeps on trucking so people keep on posting.

When I get some time I will post a photo of myself to show my rainbow glasses and my Hodl t-sweater along with a nuts cap a bandanna thanks to covid I can walk into a bank looking like that.

It is one of the few nice things about covid-19 you can say has happened.

To all take it back  step remember thanks to biology none of us will be alive in 2121 so lets stop fighting over mask no mask and or vax no vax. Either way you will be dead in 2121

THIS!

Definitely a blow to face recognition. Everyone should embrace any chance they get to fuck with the big brother/surveillance regimes.
516  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 20, 2021, 01:00:08 PM
Another truly tragic COVID-19 casualty. In my family.

45 years old. 6.2 ft tall. Perfectly healthy. Never had any illnesses throughout his life. Was serving in the military (Lieutenant, O-3). As you probably know, military officers regularly undertake medical tests, and his was perfectly clean. Stationed at a weapons research facility, doing research on encrypted network protocols.

Not vaccinated (out of "principle", whatever the FUCK that means). Contracted COVID-19. Fell ill. Within a week he was in ICU. A week later he was dead. DEAD. Got that? DEAD!

A brilliant man, a great military officer and scientist, LOST due to some medieval, dark-ages, Ted Kaczynski-type ideas, circulated for-profit on the internet, claiming that vaccines, medicines, science, technology, are somehow bad for us and we should abstain from them. He leaves behind his wife and two little girls.

Sorry to post this here, but it needs to be heard. If the mods want, they can delete it or move it to Bob's thread. The pain is just too much for me right now. I just had to post this, in the hope that some "anti-vaxxers" out there read it and WAKE THE FUCK UP. I'm not talking about what I've heard, read, or dreamt, this is real life inside my own social circle.

And anyone offended by this post can go fuck themselves, thank you.
So sorry for your loss man and i know how it feels to loose somebody you have known from years and shares a special bond with them.We all know that we all have to die at one point as we are not immortal so basically we all have to go but what's shocking is losing someone so early who has no sign of previous heath disorder like in your case bro a perfectly healthy man who has his regular checkup gone within a week is so shocking even for us and i know how much it might have broken you and your family.So condolences to you for that.

I was never interested to speak about covid restraint topic in this thread despite of so many topics and people debating over vaccine related issues but after you shared this incident i can't control myself as i also lost someone very close to me during this pandemic and he was young and only 35 father of two children's living perfect life but the main problem was there was no vaccine introduced at that time and he went too early also leaving all us behind in pain.But the life needs to go away in right manner and we can't fill their loss easily.

But after that there was vaccine introduction and some sign of relief for the surviving one's but then i saw people arguing over it and giving out advise they would rather die then get themselves vaccinated and i was like surprised that what they are doing? You prefer to get yourself the victim of deadly virus who is capable of killing the healthy ones and those who have strong immunity also but no you are against it because of all the reasons i don't know.Then there was lot of debate over this matter but i was not interested in these discussions at all.

There are images being spread out on the internet to create some kind of fake demotivational spirit among the residents to avoid vaccines like this image :



There might be some government scams in these vaccine doses but they are not going to kill you but some will still live in that dilemma or say their prestigious ego that these doses are not correct or are tools to kill them fast but it's not the case which they need to understand.But at last i also don't want any debate as this is my personal opinion which could be entirely different from others.

I am Fully vaccinated and whole of my family members are also and we know the pain you have also faced mate and that's why we know the importance of our closed ones.There are options for you and it all depends on how you use them.

Sorry for your loss.

I read that image as pro-vax dark sarcasm. i.e. "Don't get vaccinated" says funeral home (to get more business)

It sucks that anti-vaxxers's choice is effecting everyone around them and not just themselves, but as they say, freedom isn't free. The virus is mutating and vaccine efficacy is not perfect, with more breakthroughs than we wish, so this outcome was/is inevitable regardless if your neighbor/uncle/Torque gets vaccinated.

Anti-vaxxers are already bearing a much higher burden of this, last we want is to take away their rights, as this is not a road anyone of us wishes to go down on.

I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.
517  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 29, 2021, 10:50:18 PM
Jury is deciding how many of the coins Faketoshi doesn't own he has to give up That's what happens when you get caught in a lie and then double and triple down to raise the stakes Grin
 
Quote
Jury notes: How much of the intellectual property does W&K currently have under the estate? Do we need to select an amount for bitcoin and IP? When answering yes to a question do we have to follow a certain formula or can we leave it blank?
https://twitter.com/CarolinaBolado/status/1465413697812246531

No verdict today Jury went home

Quote
And with that, we are done for the day. The jurors are heading home. Back tomorrow for more deliberations at 10am.
https://twitter.com/CarolinaBolado/status/1465442342467420161
518  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 29, 2021, 09:33:51 PM
Jury is deciding how many of the coins Faketoshi doesn't own he has to give up That's what happens when you get caught in a lie and then double and triple down to raise the stakes Grin
 
Quote
Jury notes: How much of the intellectual property does W&K currently have under the estate? Do we need to select an amount for bitcoin and IP? When answering yes to a question do we have to follow a certain formula or can we leave it blank?
https://twitter.com/CarolinaBolado/status/1465413697812246531
519  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 26, 2021, 06:41:26 PM
There's more volume on conbase in 15min than their ask order book to $62.000
520  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Everything you wanted to know about Grayscale BTC Trust but were afraid to ask! on: November 21, 2021, 05:04:46 AM
Things are continuing not to go well for Grayscale.
Price continues to be at heavy discount to NAV.
And new ETF?s coming to trade, surely do not help the scenario:



On a side note, as per my spreadsheet BTC in AUM decreased from f655,605 when they locked new shares back in March, to 646,404 help yesterday. These 9,000 BTC went straight into GBTC pockets as management fees, for basically doing... nothing.

Any guess why people are selling shares to buy a future backed ETF at a 0.95% fee.

More on this later, as I am not sure this could be a good trade.




Well their highest BTC holding looks to be 655.753 on 25/2/21 at 2% yearly fees that's BTC13.115,06/yr in fees or BTC35,9/day every single day of the year they collect almost 40BTC on a closed fund that no one can leave. Quiet ingenious on their parts if you ask me. If my math is right, if nothing changes in just 19yrs (2040) they'll collect more in fees than global supply of BTC mined!  Shocked


yrreward BTC/day
2020900
2024450
2028225
2032112,5
203656,25
204028,125
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