Bubbles are artificial  yes, like the stock market is pumped up by the QE from the fed. Bitcoin is real. Indeed. stock market = debt based equity. Bitcoin has no debt. That's exactly the point. And even if all central banks have as number one priority to keep the stock market bubble alive, they can't prevent the bubble from popping big time eventually. And it will be very nasty. Dow jones 400 we are coming. |
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thoughts?
They should decentralize?
Once the deflation is in full force, we will see more outages. when selling starts in earnest, NASDAQ, NYSE, etc. servers wont be able to handle it.
it is like 100,000 people trying to escape out of a baseball or soccer stadium at once when only one gate is open... |
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What is JPMorgan up to? First the sold all the Gold in the last couple of months, then about a month ago they had the fire in the lower floors of the building and now the sell the Building which also has the biggest commercial gold vault in the world with an tunnel straight to the Fed . They obviously don't see any use for the vault ever again. Was the fire just a convenient way to get rid of some filing cabinets? Is it time to get out of Gold? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-18/jpmorgan-selling-building-houses-its-gold-vault
but there is soon another time coming to sell gold, before the big buy is warranted
UP. DOWN. UP big time
How far down is your best guess? Between 1000-800. My lowest estimate is 600. With $600 gold how do you get $4 silver? ratio would be 150 eh?
Silver is 1) a speculative vehicle and 2) and more of an industrial metal than gold and will hence drop like a stone if deflation is in full force |
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There is currently not enough evidence to point bitcoin is in bubble as there are many buyers, not only the mtgox, but may be dangerous as the market is not fully ready to use mathematical being to count.
I currently notice three major players, two in my place and the btc-e. The btc-e has been doing better than gox at the panic time.
It does not really look like a bubble. You still haven't told us how you think a bubble does look like. ok. here we go: Tulip bubble  Japan housing bubble  South sea stock  Basically, a bubble is a irrational, exuberant rise and a crash to where it started. Bitcoin instead started at 0.01-0.06 $ and is still 1,000 - 10,000x higher today. |
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WITHDRAW 1: requested June 3th, received on June 6th
WITHDRAW 2: requested June 4th, received on June 6th
WITHDRAW 3: requested June 9th, received on June 11th
So, what about that?
In early June I had two withdrawals, which were executed within days. But all the others have lasted much longer. You've just had luck. Thats all. Be happy.  June was nothing compared to now. In July, my withdrawals stopped being processed. Finally I bought bitcoins back and withdrew them. Goodbye mtgox. In the end its Easy. |
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There is currently not enough evidence to point bitcoin is in bubble as there are many buyers, not only the mtgox, but may be dangerous as the market is not fully ready to use mathematical being to count.
I currently notice three major players, two in my place and the btc-e. The btc-e has been doing better than gox at the panic time.
It does not really look like a bubble. |
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there are two effects with different impacts:
1) the overall deflation of all assets which can also impact BTC as you suggested above
2) bitcoins infancy with still huge potential. just imagine every citizen of the world would have 0.001 BTC...
These effects are mostly money-flow based and are not entirely pure of other corresponding price impacts. For example: Bond interest tends to track inflation  Prices that are linked to inflation (hard assets) should rise with the inflation rate. yes.. and the should fall with the deflation rate. We are in deflation or soon will be globally. |
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So I would say biggest bubble is gov bonds, then stocks, then real estate in many areas, and although gold is certainly priced on the higher end historically, it will likely be the next great bubble the coming years. What seems most undervalued to me today is bitcoin considering it's market cap is still only $1 billion.
this makes a lot of sense |
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What is JPMorgan up to? First the sold all the Gold in the last couple of months, then about a month ago they had the fire in the lower floors of the building and now the sell the Building which also has the biggest commercial gold vault in the world with an tunnel straight to the Fed . They obviously don't see any use for the vault ever again. Was the fire just a convenient way to get rid of some filing cabinets? Is it time to get out of Gold? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-18/jpmorgan-selling-building-houses-its-gold-vault
but there is soon another time coming to sell gold, before the big buy is warranted
UP. DOWN. UP big time
How far down is your best guess? Between 1000-800. My lowest estimate is 600. |
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What is JPMorgan up to? First the sold all the Gold in the last couple of months, then about a month ago they had the fire in the lower floors of the building and now the sell the Building which also has the biggest commercial gold vault in the world with an tunnel straight to the Fed . They obviously don't see any use for the vault ever again. Was the fire just a convenient way to get rid of some filing cabinets? Is it time to get out of Gold? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-18/jpmorgan-selling-building-houses-its-gold-vault
but there is soon another time coming to sell gold, before the big buy is warranted
UP. DOWN. UP big time
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i dont know what you are saying, but i know i won this argument and the discussion is now over
thanks for your participation
thats too easy... come on
Personally, I believe that BTC will outperform most assets in the next 12 months. Is this clear enough? |
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so what you are saying without saying is btc will be immune, at least partially, to general asset depreciation when key interest rates go up? dunno... that's a risky proposition, if that is indeed what you maintain
for significant periods of time, yes.
but I am also referring to the BTCUSD rate only at this stage, and in some point the USD will be far weaker. Net, even if both fall, as the USD should fall harder, BTCUSD will rise.
But again, we will analyse all this on a daily / weekly basis as noone can predict the next years exactly today. some things will change along the way that require to verify / adjust the forecast frequently. |
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there are two effects with different impacts:
1) the overall deflation of all assets which can also impact BTC as you suggested above
2) bitcoins infancy with still huge potential. just imagine every citizen of the world would have 0.001 BTC...
Yea, ok. bitcoin has lots of potential, agree. but why on earth would you buy pre-crash? rising interest rates = mad dash towards dollars. everything else tanks. imho: save your dollars and buy tons more bitcoins post-burst. then sit around and wait for inevitable wave of inflation. bottom line, stupid to buy and hold right now if you KNOW a bond collapse is coming. be patient. noobs
However, it all depends on your time horizon.
One thing I learned painfully over the first years of analyses and trading is that you should not assume certain market correlations hold forever. Instead you need to analyze each market separately, and only use the correlations with other assets as one out of many indicators.
when it comes to the Bitcoin forecast I do not want to get into specifics here as this would be unfair to paying subscribers ( a new report will come out in the next 24 hours and I am sure it will be very interesting as something happens with BTCUSD).
Net, there are different time frames and some of them warrant to be long bitcoins , even if in some point a bigger correction could come. But you can still sell then.. |
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So many people have predicted that bitcoin is in a bubble and is doomed to death.
There are most often the same people who push stocks up into bubble territory.
Now let's get to the bottom of this:
1) Is Bitcoin in a bubble?
Look at that longterm chart. Where is the bubble? I can't see it.
The uptrend is healthy.
2) What are REAL bubbles?
The NASDAQ bubble has already popped 13 years ago
There are some new bubble stocks in there that either have already popped or will do soon (LNKD, PCLN, etc.)
these are the real bubbles
how do other see that?
The REAL bubble is the U.S. Treasury Bond market, that is the backbone of the financial system that's been inflating since 1982 and when that bursts, well, I hope ya'll have a lot of gold, silver and bitcoins. Yes. That's a good one. huh? bond burst results from rising interest rates... If that happens, virtually all assets including gold, houses, BITCOIN, etc, should go down, no? bond bubble is not good for bitcoin, unless you intend to sell before rates go up and re-buy at bottom. good luck timing that.
1) the overall deflation of all assets which can also impact BTC as you suggested above
2) bitcoins infancy with still huge potential. just imagine every citizen of the world would have 0.001 BTC... |
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Bitcoin's "split" is switching from common use of BTC to mBTC.
I am actually waiting for party with BRK/A :-)
here an overlay (with different axis, still needed :-))  |
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now we are onto something interesting..
We never discussed about a SPLIT.
Stocks are split regularly, but in BTC this does not really work. Any idea?
If there is no split, BTCUSD will be like Warren Buffet's stock. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A). Current price 173,220.00 $
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The jp transfers might make it in 2 or 3 days until perhaps some day they don't. Who knows for sure anything what is actually going on?
in any case, having a bank account in Japan could be worth arbitragemillions |
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Looks like we are going up and in more than one way (TA, bid/sum, etc.)
And something to think about, as Mining is getting bigger and bigger (bigger money, players, etc.) one has to consider that the miners (companies?) will and should also invest into BTC. Yeah, that sounds odd, mining coins and not selling them and yet buying coins. But big money has to support itself IF people do not. Not saying that will happen, but it happens in many business models, in the sense like look at Amazon, how they sold books at little to no profit to get things rolling.
+1 |
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So many people have predicted that bitcoin is in a bubble and is doomed to death.
There are most often the same people who push stocks up into bubble territory.
Now let's get to the bottom of this:
1) Is Bitcoin in a bubble?
Look at that longterm chart. Where is the bubble? I can't see it.
The uptrend is healthy.
2) What are REAL bubbles?
The NASDAQ bubble has already popped 13 years ago
There are some new bubble stocks in there that either have already popped or will do soon (LNKD, PCLN, etc.)
these are the real bubbles
how do other see that?
The REAL bubble is the U.S. Treasury Bond market, that is the backbone of the financial system that's been inflating since 1982 and when that bursts, well, I hope ya'll have a lot of gold, silver and bitcoins. Yes. That's a good one. |
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Warning: How many of you pigs have ever been a victim of a Capitulation?
I was 'victimized' badly through the 2nd half of 2011. I kept doubling down and losing money for months. Man alive was I in the red. But I never sold until earlier this year since I would not have purchased in the first place if I were just going to dump the things without a significant gain. My speculation was based on value theory and I've not yet deviated from it. I also assumed a total loss for everything I put in so I was never under any selling pressure either financially or psychologically. How do you consider yourself a pig? You took your profits and made money, that's the behavior of a typical bull. I've only barely begun to actually take profits, and lord-a-mercy but it's a hassle. My plan is to use my non-fiat holdings to keep my fiat balances at a certain level as I buy shit. Even though I have always seen Bitcoin as highly risky, I see having a bunch of money in the banking system as even more risky and have for more than a decade. I would not have guessed that the US would not have done a Cyprus by 2013 when I was first getting paranoid (and making money) in 2002. But every day brings us that much closer to 'the event', and the flames are already starting to blacken a few of the unfortunate souls at the periphery (e.g., Detroit pensioners.) I want to maximize my own intake like just about any other living creature. So in that sense I'm 'a pig'. Most of what I've done with Bitcoin is donate it to causes I believe in and some of them don't directly effect my well-being in proportion to the funds I have given. In that sense I am not 'a pig' I guess. Having been around at lower values has conspired to make me more generous than I ultimately wished to be. +1000 |
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