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601  Economy / Economics / Re: Peter Schiff about the Winklevoss twins interview about the future of Bitcoin on: February 26, 2015, 12:35:58 AM
Everyone that isn't on Bitcoin yet has an old man mind. That's a fact.

Adam Smith guesstimated that only one in a million understood inflation. Nowadays, maybe one in thousand understand fiat, bank money creation, central banking. Half the people understand that it is smart to own real value through being short fiat with leverage (which is another way of saying own a house with a mortgage and a small personal equity).

Almost nobody understand why a house have value, most people believe it has something to do with the cost of building the house (the defunct labour value theory). Most people trust the central banks. Most people believe the money is well managed.

It has nothing to do with age. I suspect some old people know about hyperinflation (but only in failed states, could never happen here).

Indeed, most people have no idea how fiat and banks work, which in return puts us in an scenareo where Bitcoin makes no sense for them. To understand Bitcoin, you need to understand fiat and banks, but they are perfectly ok using fiat and banks without knowing how it works. This is a problem.

I doubt you know how banking works. 

602  Economy / Economics / Re: another reason for the possible success of bitcoin - a broad historical view on: February 24, 2015, 01:37:55 AM
with bitcoin the internet itself becomes powerful, a force that can get things done/funded. even better, the distributed p2p network lets - for the first time in history - people from all over the world cooperate without taking part of the wealthy elite organizations like banks and governments. for example a producer of goods/services/crops can, for the first time ever sell his goods globally while denying the old elite a part of their share.

Nice writeup especially the historal part. This is what I would agree the most. One more thing is that nobody can print more money and bring down the value if our holdings

Except those block rewards  Roll Eyes
603  Economy / Economics / Re: Peter Schiff about the Winklevoss twins interview about the future of Bitcoin on: February 20, 2015, 02:28:25 AM
Such a conservative man.
We're on a growing exponencial line in terms of technology advancements.
If people who are it their 30/40 sometimes have difficulties coping with novelty, imagine someone born before computers existed. Their minds simply cannot imagine many of the things that await us.

You think 30 to 40 is old?  LOL.  Winklevoss bros are 33 or 34
604  Economy / Economics / Re: why do people agree to pay taxes? on: February 20, 2015, 02:12:41 AM
So many ignorant statists making the same boring arguments over and over and over and over and over and over..

I want to cry.

I am living in a cage full of slaves and I am surrounded by other slaves telling me how great the cage is. Sure I get to vote on what's for supper every now and then. But whenever I propose we work together to escape the cage I am met with hostility and labeled as dangerous, radical, naive, Utopian, and selfish.

Not in my lifetime.


You are just young and dumb and probably privileged.  You'll change your mind if you ever grow up.
605  Economy / Economics / Re: another reason for the possible success of bitcoin - a broad historical view on: February 20, 2015, 02:09:44 AM
But why do these alternative internet enabled economies need Bitcoin?

Microfinance doesn't need Bitcoin.  Crowd funding doesn't need Bitcoin either.

As a matter of fact.  It would be more cumbersome with Bitcoin because fewer can participate and you have the bad smell of anarcho capitalist libertarian that's associated a Bitcoin.

The only economy I can think that benefits from Bitcoin is darker markets.  And I'm not even so sure after DPR got busted.  The prosecution used blockchsin to link him to Silk Road
606  Economy / Economics / Re: I just created 100 pennies.. and loaned them out, you owe me 101 pennies….. on: February 19, 2015, 11:44:54 PM
If you can create 100 pennies, then you can create 100 more.  I catch some fish and sell it to you until my investment is paid off. 

Were now both better off
607  Economy / Economics / Re: The European Debt Crisis Visualized on: February 19, 2015, 11:16:01 PM
Defecit spending is how money moves into the private sector.

Because the govt can print money it's their responsibility to spend it to keep the economy moving along
608  Economy / Economics / Re: The fatal flaw of Real Bills Doctrine on: February 17, 2015, 05:41:28 AM
There seems to be a confusion of what an MBS is.  Mortgage Backed Security is a SECURITY.  Its a pool of mortgages that is securitized so it can be traded by investors.  

Has nothing to do with the Fed buying property.  MBS is a way for banks to get the (illiquid) mortgages off their books and sell to an investment bank, who in turn sell it to investors.  The Fed isn't buying MBS to own property, they are buying it to lower lending rates.  You don't own any property if you buy MBS you are buying the interest stream.  Its a type of bond

http://www.investopedia.com/video/play/what-are-mortgage-backed-securities

Also, borrowers aren't in debt because of the Fed.  They are in debt simply because they borrowed money.  Nobody forces you to borrow money
609  Economy / Economics / Re: The fatal flaw of Real Bills Doctrine on: February 17, 2015, 05:19:36 AM
Great insight to infer mbs program to a tend towards owning all land.. However as all suuply is dried up and becomes unaffordable the whole country will default.. Why would the govt have incentive to do this? Or is it judt s byproduct of a malfunctioning system nearing its end? Its like askmg miners to collude so they can double spend.. Theres no incentive to break the network?

Is buying the mbs somehow a way to foot the bill for the interest on the outstanding loans via printing paper through selling treasury notes?

I think this inevitably leads to more and more assets get defaulted and bought up by the banks, and they might rent those house to you later and become the land lord of the whole country

Treasury note is just another name of debt, banks only buy debts nowadays (with money out of thin air), and eventually the whole country will be the debt slave of banks

This is not what happens.  If you default your mortgage the bank takes possesion of your house but if the market is down they eat the loss.  Banks don't want to sit in an inventory of houses nobody wants to buy.  Often they'll sell it at auction at loss.

Banks don't want debt slaves they want a booming economy where they can create more loans

you should read up some more about the 2008 housing bubble, i think it will clear up a lot of things for you!

Please point out where I'm wrong.  My friend is a house flipper and he routinely buys short sales. A lot of subprime borrowers just abandon their property if the mortgage becomes underwater.

Banks don't go around buying foreclosures, they are selling foreclosures at auction.  Usually at a loss
610  Economy / Economics / Re: The fatal flaw of Real Bills Doctrine on: February 16, 2015, 10:25:30 PM
Great insight to infer mbs program to a tend towards owning all land.. However as all suuply is dried up and becomes unaffordable the whole country will default.. Why would the govt have incentive to do this? Or is it judt s byproduct of a malfunctioning system nearing its end? Its like askmg miners to collude so they can double spend.. Theres no incentive to break the network?

Is buying the mbs somehow a way to foot the bill for the interest on the outstanding loans via printing paper through selling treasury notes?

I think this inevitably leads to more and more assets get defaulted and bought up by the banks, and they might rent those house to you later and become the land lord of the whole country

Treasury note is just another name of debt, banks only buy debts nowadays (with money out of thin air), and eventually the whole country will be the debt slave of banks

This is not what happens.  If you default your mortgage the bank takes possesion of your house but if the market is down they eat the loss.  Banks don't want to sit in an inventory of houses nobody wants to buy.  Often they'll sell it at auction at loss.

Banks don't want debt slaves they want a booming economy where they can create more loans
611  Economy / Economics / Re: Semantics of "fiat" on: February 13, 2015, 01:37:29 AM
Good points Amspir, I mostly agree. 

However while we are talking semantics I will point out that the idea of "intrinsic value" is inherently flawed.  There is no such thing.  Value always depends on context, it's definition is in what you can get for it from another person. 

The reason that libertarian bitcoiners like to use the word fiat as a dirty word is that they feel that taking the dollar off the gold standard was an egregious act by government.    In my opinion, it was inevitable, because at a moment of crisis, a government would always choose to steal the gold rather than let the economy crash.  There was no way they would have let dollar holders run the bank and redeem their dollars for gold.   This is a flaw of centralized banking.

Representative commodity currencies also have a flaw in that the commodity must be guarded, and eventually, the commodity ends up in the hands of the guards or is stolen.   The gold backing Liberty Dollars was stolen by the government, thus it failed as a money system.

I think bitcoin can prove itself to be a superior form of money to either a government-issued fiat currency or a representative commodity currency, since it will be immune to direct government manipulation, and immune to theft from government or otherwise, if properly handled, because it is a better form of fiat currency.

I don't think it is necessary for money to have intrinsic value for it to work.  Obviously, US dollars currently dominate the global economy, and bitcoin is slowing gaining acceptance as a means of payment.

I just find it colloquial for libertarians to continue using the term "fiat" to differentiate bitcoin from government-issued fiat, when the original use was to differentiate gold-backed dollars from fiat dollars.






I disagree that it's better than govt fiat.  One, the supply can only increase.  Two, the increase is arbitrary and not based on any economic conditions.  Three, its extremely difficult to build a banking system around it

612  Economy / Economics / Re: Inflation and Deflation of Price and Money Supply on: February 12, 2015, 02:15:37 AM
Yes you could estimate future cash flows of you had contracts or sales data.

For example I worked for a bakery that made 20K per month.  Then I decided to model my business after theirs but in a different past of town that didn't have a good bakery.  I could estimate that within a few years my business could possibly genstate similar income

Or if I snuck behind their backs and offered the same baguette to a distributor for 20% less and stole their contract

All this is *speculating* on the bread market.

As I said, it is a stable market with very low volatility, so the risk is very small.  But it is BETTING on other people's future economic behaviour nevertheless, and to me that's the core concept in "speculation": betting on other people's future economic behaviour.

Your "estimating the behaviour of bread buying people in a different part of town" is your version of technical analysis, based upon extrapolation from the past and certain hypotheses about the general model of the bread market.

It might for instance very well be that there's no good bakery in that part of town simply because everybody there eats noodles in the morning Smiley  Then your speculative action of setting up a bakery there was a wrong bet, and your analysis of the cash flow failed.



I still think you are using the term too broadly.  So what is investment according to you then?  Does it exist? Or should we throw away that word?

613  Economy / Economics / Re: The fatal flaw of Real Bills Doctrine on: February 12, 2015, 01:33:29 AM

If you've discovered this secret why aren't you out there rasing venture capital to start a bank?


This is not a secret, John Law practiced this 300 years ago. Commercial bank do not have right to create money, only central banks can. Just look how FED and other central banks' balance sheet exploded while they acquire large amount of assets since 2008

Oh yes they do, Commercial banks create credit money. 

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q1prereleasemoneycreation.pdf

So what if their balance sheet expanded?  Still has nothing to do with them "buying the economy"

Commercial bank create large amount of checkbook numbers in their database, but they are not real money, when they run out of real money, they went down, together with your numbers in your accounts, which has never existed in reality until you do a full withdraw. Just like your bitcoin count on bitcoin exchanges, they are numbers in a database, not on blockchain

Of course it's real money.  The entire global economy is built on this. 

They can't run out of money if they create it ex nihilo.  They can only run out of borrowers
614  Economy / Economics / Re: Semantics of "fiat" on: February 12, 2015, 01:24:52 AM
I believe bitcoiners can't accept that Bitcoin is a fiat because they think there's something inherently bad about fiat.

In many ways fiat is superior to commodity money

615  Economy / Economics / Re: Inflation and Deflation of Price and Money Supply on: February 11, 2015, 08:04:42 AM
Yes you could estimate future cash flows of you had contracts or sales data.

For example I worked for a bakery that made 20K per month.  Then I decided to model my business after theirs but in a different past of town that didn't have a good bakery.  I could estimate that within a few years my business could possibly genstate similar income

Or if I snuck behind their backs and offered the same baguette to a distributor for 20% less and stole their contract
616  Economy / Economics / Re: Inflation and Deflation of Price and Money Supply on: February 11, 2015, 01:17:16 AM
This is too broad a definition for a notion or an idea, and as such this definition loses its focus and utility. As an economic term, speculation is set apart from investment, and they are to be necessarily distinguished. Would you call capital investment speculation (or rather consumption)?

Speculation is for me, the bet on being able to sell an asset for something else you're interested in.
Anything which doesn't imply pleasure from its acquisition (= consumption) is probably speculation, that is, an indirect way of trying to get pleasure from acquisition later (which is the sole and ultimate goal of any economic interaction).
Production is a kind of speculation, capital investment is a kind of speculation, .... anything of which the economic interaction doesn't serve to be used to obtain pleasure, but which has a bet on the future economic interactions of others, is to me, speculation.

If you bake bread to eat it, that's consumption.  If you bake bread to sell it, that's speculation.  If you buy an oven to be able to bake bread to eat, that's (indirect) consumption.  If you buy an oven to be able to bake bread to sell it, that's speculation.

Why ?  Because in all the speculation examples, you are betting on a future economic interaction with others.  If you buy an oven to make your own bread next week, then you are not dependent on other people's desires to obtain your pleasure (eating your bread) next week.  It is a bet on the future (that you will succeed making bread, and that you will like that bread), but that bet doesn't involve other people's economic interactions.  However, if you will bake bread for others, you're betting on the idea that they will want your bread and pay for it (a certain amount).   That's what I call "speculation": betting on other people's economic will and ability to buy your stuff against stuff you want.

Speculation, to me, is the bet on the future of other people's needs and ability to offer you something you want.

Consumption is everything you do directly and indirectly to get pleasure.  Directly, that's evident, indirectly, that is, providing yourself with the means (independent of other people's desires in the future) to satisfy your needs in the future.



Investment and speculation is different.

If you but an oven to start a bakery that's an investment.  You can calculate future cash flows based on the investment.

Speculation is when you but something so you can sell it later at a higher price
617  Economy / Economics / Re: The fatal flaw of Real Bills Doctrine on: February 09, 2015, 09:14:08 PM

If you've discovered this secret why aren't you out there rasing venture capital to start a bank?


This is not a secret, John Law practiced this 300 years ago. Commercial bank do not have right to create money, only central banks can. Just look how FED and other central banks' balance sheet exploded while they acquire large amount of assets since 2008

Oh yes they do, Commercial banks create credit money. 

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q1prereleasemoneycreation.pdf

So what if their balance sheet expanded?  Still has nothing to do with them "buying the economy"
618  Economy / Economics / Re: The fatal flaw of Real Bills Doctrine on: February 09, 2015, 09:01:42 PM

U should try to read the whole thread again and also understand it.
all you posts display alot of non understanding of this topic

Nope.  Sorry bud I've yet to see any evidence that the Fed buys land or real estate.  And who cares if they do? 
619  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 09, 2015, 02:36:20 AM
I don't think that there will be an immediate reaction to the mycoin.hk debacle (but I may be wrong, of course).

People have blamed bad press after the MtGOX collapse for the general price decline since Feb/2014.  I don't think MtGOX had that much influence, not even when it was fresh news (which is no longer the case). The only clear effects of MtGOX on price were a couple of sudden drops, notably on 2014-02-07 and 02-10, when Mark hinted/stated that there was a "bug in bitcoin".  But those drops were soon undone when the claims were dismissed.  As I said before, I believe that the general deciine since Feb/2014 is mostly due to the Chinese speculators getting disenchanted with bitcoin and taking their remaining money out of the market.

The mycoin.hk debacle may however convince the Chinese government to impose even stricter regulations about bitcoin trading; and those would surely have a large impact on the price (like the ones in March/April 2014).

Meh. Em Tee Gox was an exchange that was missing a lot of BTC and it only caused a couple of sudden drops with a market that expected those btc to make it to the remaining exchanges to sell. The mycoin.hk thing will likely have little effect on the market because, as I understand it,  it's an obvious fiat ponzi scheme that merely used bitcoin as part of the ruse. Ponzis are already illegal so no further legislation needed.


They use Bitcoin cause the bitcoiners target victim are get rich scheme gamblers who are unsophisticated and generally dumb.  They think anything Bitcoin must be good
620  Economy / Economics / Re: The fatal flaw of Real Bills Doctrine on: February 09, 2015, 02:33:13 AM

The one who can issue money, can of course buy up the whole economy in the end.  Whether this is by "backed" money, or "thin air" money doesn't really matter.  The only advantage of "backed" money is that there will always be some finite supply of it, if the backing asset is a collectible, such as land or gold.


My analysis shows that backed money is indeed "out of thin air": As long as you have some spare asset, you can always issue money backed by them to buy more asset, and once you get more asset, you can issue more money, so the quantity of money that you can issue is only limited by the total available asset that you can buy in the whole world

To stop this kind of madness, it should be illegal to issue money backed by assets. If money can only be created by work or paying equal amount of valuables (for example exchange electricity for mining bitcoin), then that money will not create seigniorage

I agree with you 100%.  "Backed" is a word which simply means "I am lying to you".  Even if well intentioned, it is an unverifiable, unstable, and a sure-to-fail situation.  Perhaps we should look to various alt-coin producers who are showing us the truth about this kind of language. 


This trick can even be practiced on gold and I believe that is how those banks accumulated huge amount of gold during a century. But since the amount of gold is limited, once they have bought most of the gold available on market, they could not create more fiat. So they eventually shifted the target to assets, then they could continue with their wealth accumulation at a much faster pace

If you've discovered this secret why aren't you out there rasing venture capital to start a bank?

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