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1201  Economy / Economics / Re: Global Financial Crisis scenarios on: August 05, 2014, 02:20:52 AM

This chart is true for any crypto currency, but I don't see all altcoins succeeding. Cheesy

Haha good point.   

1202  Economy / Economics / Re: Dollar coming to an end on: August 05, 2014, 02:05:56 AM
i don't think so

it won't happen ever

FIATs have come and gone through history countless times. Of course the dollar ending means the empire ending. I don't see this happening anytime soon.
You'd be surprised how fast it may be coming to an end.

2nd fattest country, large unemployment, massive debt that is about 200 trillion after commitments and other benefits are paid (With a current 17 trillion in "active" debt), populace unwilling to work, lots of the country on food stamps and welfare, immigrants coming across the border to take jobs, goofy government, enemies everywhere, etc.

I can see the fall start happening in 25 years, but the entire collapse would take about 12 years. So you should have time to get out...

100 years ago, Great Britain was supreme. It was quickly surpassed by the US.
It wouldn't take long for the balance to tilt again.

Doesn't mean GBP came to an end or collapsed.   Just replaced as the world reserve
1203  Economy / Economics / Re: Is there room for a State Run Cryptocurrency? on: August 05, 2014, 02:03:05 AM
No, that was not my claim, you just see what your eyes want to see. I was not talking about QE "printing money". There is no inflation out of this, since the QE money doesn't leak into circulation. I was talking about how debts are socialized and the burden of them is passed on to the taxpayer in general (by means of inflation).

Is this your original claim?  that if FDIC needs money.  Fed prints money.   Inflation follows.   Taxpayers "pay the debt" of the FDIC via "debt socialization"

You might have noticed (well, you actually didn't) that I was talking about how socialization of debts works, and I specifically mentioned "in general". Regarding the FDIC, I don't know how much money they might potentially need, but if you insist, the answer is affirmative. In the worst case scenario, the sequence you described would necessarily lead to inflation (since the money "lost in debt" didn't disappear but just changed hands).

In the event that the FDIC fund is insufficient,  the FDIC has credit at the Treasury.   The Fed isn't even in the picture.  Theres no protocol so an act of Congress is probably required to do what you are suggesting

Even if the Fed lends them money,  then the borrower (FDIC)  pays back the loan not taxpayers.   

Do you know what the word "indirectly" means, which I used in respect to ordinary people paying for the bank debts? What regards the real world evidence of debt socialization, Google is your friend (I hope you understand that you are presently not in the position of asking me to prove you anything).

LOL.   You made the claim so you prove it.  Prove that taxpayers pay for bank debts.

I guess you don't know anything about accounting.   

You can't even get the concept right.   Its "privatized profits,  and socialized losses". 



1204  Economy / Speculation / Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well on: August 04, 2014, 05:03:33 PM
Anyone here have experience offering swaps on bitfinex?   I'm thinking about doing this and want to hear some real world experiences

Can PM me

Now is the riskiest time to offer USD swaps imo.

When is the non risky time?  What should I be looking at?

the best indicator for an assessment of the risk is probably the Total sum of active swaps.
You can find this information on:
https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

(currently ~29.7 million $)


So wait for swap sum to go down and interest go up?  Whats the ideal interest?

the major problem everyone is discussing in this thread is that the swap volume has spiked up to 31 million $ at peak, but BTC
price has stayed in a sideways market. therefore all the long positions probably aren´t profitable and have to be closed at one
point in the future if BTC price doesn´t rise.

this could lead to a flash crash at bitfinex, because the first margin calls could trigger additional margin calls...



I get that.  You are saying if these traders get margin called and the price crashes I might not be able to get my money back.

My question was more direct.  Just at what swap sum is acceptable risk?  And whats a good interest rate?  I know its speculation.  Just curious what the people who have experience with this thinks
1205  Economy / Speculation / Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well on: August 04, 2014, 03:17:35 PM
Anyone here have experience offering swaps on bitfinex?   I'm thinking about doing this and want to hear some real world experiences

Can PM me

Now is the riskiest time to offer USD swaps imo.

When is the non risky time?  What should I be looking at?

the best indicator for an assessment of the risk is probably the Total sum of active swaps.
You can find this information on:
https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

(currently ~29.7 million $)


So wait for swap sum to go down and interest go up?  Whats the ideal interest?
1206  Economy / Speculation / Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well on: August 04, 2014, 01:20:34 PM
Anyone here have experience offering swaps on bitfinex?   I'm thinking about doing this and want to hear some real world experiences

Can PM me

Now is the riskiest time to offer USD swaps imo.

When is the non risky time?  What should I be looking at?
1207  Economy / Trading Discussion / Somebody give me a bitfinex referral please on: August 04, 2014, 06:09:33 AM
Trying to open a bitfinex account.  Can someone give me a referral code?
1208  Economy / Speculation / Re: This Bitfinex Credit Bubble cannot end well on: August 04, 2014, 05:38:21 AM
Anyone here have experience offering swaps on bitfinex?   I'm thinking about doing this and want to hear some real world experiences

Can PM me
1209  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Argentina the cyprus of 2014? on: August 04, 2014, 02:32:53 AM
This is about Argentina defaulting on its bonds.  Bonds are denominated in USD so they can't print pesos to get out of mess.   Not comparable to Cyprus situation.  Cypriots bought bitcoin because imposed bank holiday

Stop thinking everything is good for bitcoin.  LOL  Roll Eyes

If Argentinians could buy USD, they would.
Depends on whether BTC is easier to lay hands on, or USD.
In the end, it could be good for bitcoin.

Did you read the story?   Agentina is defaulting on some bonds.   What does this have to go people converting their currency

The link is Argentina defaults --> Harder to get external credit --> More printing of pesos --> High Inflation.
In the end, people will have to look after themselves, if their pesos get devalued very quickly.

The bonds are denominated in USD though.   Plus they're already having inflation problems.   Why would they print more pesos?   If anything they'll go back to pegging their currency or they'll go to IMF and be forced to follow whatever IMF reccomends

For regular Argentinian people I think they have already been buying USD but the govt placed  limitation in Jan.

I'm gonna ask my Argentinian friend about it.   I don't think in times of crisis most people will suddenly start speculating.   I think they seek stability
1210  Economy / Economics / Re: Is there room for a State Run Cryptocurrency? on: August 04, 2014, 12:27:48 AM
Risk-free interest? In a bank? Are you kidding?

If you pick a large bank, your deposit is within the limit for federal insurance, I guess you could say it is risk-free.  Smiley
Who insures the insurer?
The insurer is the FDIC and the FDIC is backed by the US government who can essentially print near unlimited amounts of money without causing massive inflation. The FDIC also can raise premiums that they charge banks for insuring the deposits.

So, if the FDIC runs out of money (because of multiple bank-runs), the U.S. government will print as much money as necessary to cover the FDIC deficit, thus making the taxpayers pay all the debts.

How do you figure taxpayers pay?   

How dare you ask me questions now having not answered my own? Wink

But never mind, I know that you can't answer anything coherent, so it doesn't matter. Regarding the taxpayers money, it is called socialization of debts, when ordinary people ("taxpayers") would indirectly pay for the bank debts by lowering their standard of living through inflation since the government would print money to cover the debts  (this is called seigniorage, i.e. "a right of the lord (seigneur) to mint money" from French).

What does this have w FDIC running out of money?   FDIC has $500B line of credit @ Treasury. 

Are you talking about QE "printing money"?   Please show inflation if thats what you claim.

No, that was not my claim, you just see what your eyes want to see. I was not talking about QE "printing money". There is no inflation out of this, since the QE money doesn't leak into circulation. I was talking about how debts are socialized and the burden of them is passed on to the taxpayer in general (by means of inflation).

Is this your original claim?  that if FDIC needs money.  Fed prints money.   Inflation follows.   Taxpayers "pay the debt" of the FDIC via "debt socialization"

You might have noticed (well, you actually didn't) that I was talking about how socialization of debts works, and I specifically mentioned "in general". Regarding the FDIC, I don't know how much money they might potentially need, but if you insist, the answer is affirmative. In the worst case scenario, the sequence you described would necessarily lead to inflation (since the money "lost in debt" didn't disappear but just changed hands).

In the event that the FDIC fund is insufficient,  the FDIC has credit at the Treasury.   The Fed isn't even in the picture.  Theres no protocol so an act of Congress is probably required to do what you are suggesting

Even if the Fed lends them money,  then the borrower (FDIC)  pays back the loan not taxpayers.   

Please prove the concept of "socialized debt" w real world evidence



1211  Economy / Economics / Re: Is there room for a State Run Cryptocurrency? on: August 03, 2014, 03:44:45 PM
Risk-free interest? In a bank? Are you kidding?

If you pick a large bank, your deposit is within the limit for federal insurance, I guess you could say it is risk-free.  Smiley
Who insures the insurer?
The insurer is the FDIC and the FDIC is backed by the US government who can essentially print near unlimited amounts of money without causing massive inflation. The FDIC also can raise premiums that they charge banks for insuring the deposits.

So, if the FDIC runs out of money (because of multiple bank-runs), the U.S. government will print as much money as necessary to cover the FDIC deficit, thus making the taxpayers pay all the debts.

How do you figure taxpayers pay?   

How dare you ask me questions now having not answered my own? Wink

But never mind, I know that you can't answer anything coherent, so it doesn't matter. Regarding the taxpayers money, it is called socialization of debts, when ordinary people ("taxpayers") would indirectly pay for the bank debts by lowering their standard of living through inflation since the government would print money to cover the debts  (this is called seigniorage, i.e. "a right of the lord (seigneur) to mint money" from French).

What does this have w FDIC running out of money?   FDIC has $500B line of credit @ Treasury. 

Are you talking about QE "printing money"?   Please show inflation if thats what you claim.

No, that was not my claim, you just see what your eyes want to see. I was not talking about QE "printing money". There is no inflation out of this, since the QE money doesn't leak into circulation. I was talking about how debts are socialized and the burden of them is passed on to the taxpayer in general (by means of inflation).

Is this your original claim?  that if FDIC needs money.  Fed prints money.   Inflation follows.   Taxpayers "pay the debt" of the FDIC via "debt socialization"

1212  Economy / Economics / Re: Is there room for a State Run Cryptocurrency? on: August 03, 2014, 03:08:48 PM
Risk-free interest? In a bank? Are you kidding?

If you pick a large bank, your deposit is within the limit for federal insurance, I guess you could say it is risk-free.  Smiley
Who insures the insurer?
The insurer is the FDIC and the FDIC is backed by the US government who can essentially print near unlimited amounts of money without causing massive inflation. The FDIC also can raise premiums that they charge banks for insuring the deposits.

So, if the FDIC runs out of money (because of multiple bank-runs), the U.S. government will print as much money as necessary to cover the FDIC deficit, thus making the taxpayers pay all the debts.

How do you figure taxpayers pay?   

How dare you ask me questions now having not answered my own? Wink

But never mind, I know that you can't answer anything coherent, so it doesn't matter. Regarding the taxpayers money, it is called socialization of debts, when ordinary people ("taxpayers") would indirectly pay for the bank debts by lowering their standard of living through inflation since the government would print money to cover the debts  (this is called seigniorage, i.e. "a right of the lord (seigneur) to mint money" from French).

What does this have w FDIC running out of money?   FDIC has $500B line of credit @ Treasury. 

Are you talking about QE "printing money"?   Please show inflation if thats what you claim.   



1213  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Argentina the cyprus of 2014? on: August 03, 2014, 02:45:17 PM
This is about Argentina defaulting on its bonds.  Bonds are denominated in USD so they can't print pesos to get out of mess.   Not comparable to Cyprus situation.  Cypriots bought bitcoin because imposed bank holiday

Stop thinking everything is good for bitcoin.  LOL  Roll Eyes

If Argentinians could buy USD, they would.
Depends on whether BTC is easier to lay hands on, or USD.
In the end, it could be good for bitcoin.

Did you read the story?   Agentina is defaulting on some bonds.   What does this have to go people converting their currency
1214  Economy / Economics / Re: Is Argentina the cyprus of 2014? on: August 03, 2014, 06:29:37 AM
This is about Argentina defaulting on its bonds.  Bonds are denominated in USD so they can't print pesos to get out of mess.   Not comparable to Cyprus situation.  Cypriots bought bitcoin because imposed bank holiday

Stop thinking everything is good for bitcoin.  LOL  Roll Eyes
1215  Economy / Economics / Re: Loans in BTC on: August 03, 2014, 06:03:32 AM


From an accounting point of view, if they create 1000 loans for every 100 deposit, what is the liability corresponding to the loan of 1000 (which appears on the asset side)?

Both sides of balance sheet is expanded.   Read this article it explains more correctly than the posters here

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100497710
1216  Economy / Economics / Re: Solution to poverty - Socialism or Capitalism? on: August 03, 2014, 01:40:08 AM
Sorry I should have wrote 80s.  Friedman was economic advisor to Reagan.   That generation was when deregulation started.   

Fannie Mae doesn't subsidize mortgages.   They securitize them to expand secondary mortgage markets.  But I agree that securitization contributed to housing bubble.  I also agree that lower interest rates increased incentives for loans.

However,  I also believe deregulation played a big part in the bubbles as well.   

You realize what you described is called subprime lending and that is partly result of deregulation.   Deregulation of finance let the banks create CDO & CDS from the MBS

So assuming individuals/ companies are only self interested.   Is the market self regulating or should regulations come from govt?  What is the role of govt?   Or are you anarchist?

How does bitcoin limit greed?   All I see are greedy speculators buying bitcoin to get rich quick  Shocked
1217  Economy / Economics / Re: Is there room for a State Run Cryptocurrency? on: August 03, 2014, 12:58:02 AM
Risk-free interest? In a bank? Are you kidding?

If you pick a large bank, your deposit is within the limit for federal insurance, I guess you could say it is risk-free.  Smiley
Who insures the insurer?
The insurer is the FDIC and the FDIC is backed by the US government who can essentially print near unlimited amounts of money without causing massive inflation. The FDIC also can raise premiums that they charge banks for insuring the deposits.

So, if the FDIC runs out of money (because of multiple bank-runs), the U.S. government will print as much money as necessary to cover the FDIC deficit, thus making the taxpayers pay all the debts.

How do you figure taxpayers pay?  
1218  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitfinex: total return swap on: August 03, 2014, 12:45:35 AM
Can anyone explain how these work for USD swaps on Bitfinex from the prospective of the lender? I cant seem to find any clear information on the risk involved and how it really works. Right now on Bitfinex I can lend USD for around .14% per day. That seems like a very high ROI and am wondering how it can be this high, and what risk is involved.

The risk is bitfinex goes insolvent and you can't get your money back.

Its high interest because you dont know the credit risk of borrower.  And they use your money for speculatiing

Bitfinex give margin accounts to their traders.   So when the margined positions lose money bitfinex closes the trade.   But if the traders account is underwater the trader is supposed to deposit more money.   Its called a 'margin call'

You can imagine what happens if there is a rapid drop and bitfinex can't dump the trades fast enough.   They become illiquid.   If the traders cant deposit money or if bitfinex can't borrow more money to get liquidity then insolvency.

Similar thing as Bear Stearns or Lehman Bros

If asset price keeps going then everyone happy.   But if if doesn't then big crash. 

wow. what a complete BS summary for the reason of the interest rate.

-total return swaps are insured, of high drop of price. see faq!

-the high interest of 30% a year is because the people borrowing dollars from you and buying bitcoin speculate that the grow of bitcoin in one year will be higher. when you lend dollars you cant hold btc. vice vers the interest for swaps in btc is about 3%.

Wow you said the same thing I said in different words and Im BS?   Roll Eyes

You lend money to anonymous traders.   That's why you can ask high interest.   

How much insurance do they have?   Isn't the insurance fund like 50K on 30M of swaps?

You have link about insurance?    I couldn't find anything in faq

1219  Economy / Economics / Re: Solution to poverty - Socialism or Capitalism? on: August 01, 2014, 08:36:16 PM



I know you have an admiration for Friedman from our earlier convos.  But looking in hindsight; some people think his influence on deregulation policies in the 90's financial industry led to 2008 GFC.  What's your opinion of this? 

1220  Economy / Economics / Re: Solution to poverty - Socialism or Capitalism? on: August 01, 2014, 02:22:06 PM
Quote
I think you are confusing "free market" and "unregulated market"

You are right in what I think, a regulated market is not free. Either it is controlled by coercion, either it is not. The line is clear.

I did not know about the California electricity crisis, and I think your premise is that private companies did it on purpose or was provoked by speculation, and that state saved the citizen of such greedy bastard.
But the question to ask is why a private company would act against the interest of its customers, and thus loosing profit on purpose ? This is not a natural course of action of a market.

Let's talk about the "Megawatt laundering" problem of your link.
Cause :
Quote
"The California energy market allowed for energy companies to charge higher prices for electricity produced out-of-state."
Effect :
Quote
"It was therefore advantageous to make it appear that electricity was being generated somewhere other than California."

My question is : who decided to control the price for electricity at the first place ?
My response is : government by coercion on prices... So how can you call this a market free ? It was not.

When gov imposes prices, there is 2 possibility.
Either the imposed price is lower than the natural price (the one without regulation), and in this case you provoke a shortage. (Because production go down)
This is what happened in this case.

I'll quote Milton Friedman :
Quote
“We economists don't know much, but we do know how to create a shortage. If you want to create a shortage of tomatoes, for example, just pass a law that retailers can't sell tomatoes for more than two cents per pound. Instantly you'll have a tomato shortage. It's the same with oil or gas.”

Or, the imposed price is higher than the natural price.
This is what happens in some market like cabs, or even, minimal wages (that is regulation on labor's price).
And in this case, the demand drop, for minimal wages, you get more unemployment, and increased need in welfare.
In the case of Taxi, very few people are using cabs and preferring public transportation, and in the case of Ubber, lots of problem with legislation because it bypasses the imposed rate of taxi for the same service, which provoke injustice and stifle competition.

Let's talk about the "Overscheduling" problem.
Quote
the Death Star group of scams played on the market rules which required the state to pay "congestion fees" to alleviate congestion on major power lines
Why does the state accepted at all of paying such fees ?
Quote
"Congestion fees" were a variety of financial incentives aimed at ensuring power providers solved the congestion problem
Are the congestion fees payed by power providers or state ? With those two sentences, if I understand correctly, it means that the state acted as a power provider in charge on power line.
So my question is : why the power line is handled by the state and not private companies ?
A private companies would have acted against such scam by making economically costly to reserve a line, preventing spam. But maybe law prevented that ?
If the cost of reservation would be too high, then another company, with its own power line would compete with it.

But no... the state, instead of acting as a rational economical agent, resort to MORE coercion of the kind that provoked the shortage in the first place. (price control)

Then one will say : what does prevent electrical companies to charge high price because of our dependence on energy ?
My response is: Competition by having multiple power providers. And if all abuse, the high price of energy would quickly fire economical forces to switch to alternative and less centralized source of energy.
Solar panel would become economically profitable and would spread very quickly.

This market was not free, and the failure of regulation, ironically provoked more regulation.
This is like the 1940 crisis... the fed created it with bad monetary policies, but instead of collapsing for its fault, it gained even more power by allowing to break the link with gold. (The failure of FED in 1940 was admitted by Bernake)
But during all this time, in all the school we were brainwashed to believe that greed of capitalism provoked the crisis, when it was not. There was no such thing as a free market when a central authority control the supply of money.

Here is an example:

No women are allowed to operate pubs and sell alcohol = not free market
Anyone is allowed to operate a pub and sell alcohol BUT it requires an alcohol license = free market & regulated

Utilities are an exception because the govt considers it a public necessity.  The regulations are meant to the protect the public from price gouging.  When regulations were lifted the prices for energy went up.  So you may be theoretically correct that the govt controlled prices.  But it was for the good of the consumer

Actually the energy shortage didn't come from govt control.  It came from market manipulations after deregulation.  You heard of Enron, no?
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