Why not just adopt Bitcoin itself as a main currency? You could even set up a fractional banking system based on top Bitcoin. The first government to do this is going to have a huge economic advantage for the rest of this century.
You know, it's REALLY difficult to do FRB with Bitcoin, since you are REALLY relying on having more people funneling in Bitcoins. And guess what happens when some-one wants to withdraw? Either you start funneling Bitcoins out of other's accounts, and they're left with the IOUs. And what happens when they want to withdraw, etc. It's possible, but difficult. That's why wallets were made, so people can be their own bank. And not have to go through the bureaucracy that comes with banks. And they can't be left with IOUs, ever. Either a Bitcoin is there or it's not. If you can do FRB w gold you can do it w bitcoins. The difference is if people have wallets then they dont need to keep their deposits in a bank. But loans would still exist and credit money would still exist. Banks dont really need deposit accounts these days to create loans. For example if you lease a car, the leasing bank creates credit without any deposit accounts To do this (that is create credit without a deposit), banks need a governing body called a central bank which works behind them actually creating new money on behalf of a lending bank. Without a CB, banks could only issue their own "private" money. Now guess what happens if this money is Bitcoin (that is there is no central bank).  I just showed example where credit is created w out Central Bank. Most if not all car companies has financial services. If they didn't youd have to go to commercial bank which then is connected to the Central Bank. But surely BMWFS dont have deposit accounts. You can't create credit in national currency (emitted by a central bank under whatever name) without the central bank. I don't understand how car companies are related to all of this. Because 50% of money exist as credit in shadow banking. Too lazy to post a chart. But its on the Fed Reserve website. Someone said its difficult to do FRB w bitcoin bc reserves. I said it isn't. The point about car companies is to illustrate a bank that creates credit w/o deposit accounts or reserves. They create credit using assets (cars) My view of money comes from Modern Monetary Theory so if a little hard to understand if you don't know the theory. You are correct that base money comes from Central Bank. BTW, I think Central Banks are necessary but also their policies are ineffective in crisis My point is that bitcoiners mistake bitcoin as a solution when its not. Bitcoin is based on a 20th century understanding of banking not modern banking |
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I am not against law, since I believe in private property as fundamental, and that can't be enforced without violence without law. (and thus not a punk)
Government is the only one with the monopole of coercion on a territory, such thing is necessary to enforce law and thus protect private property.
What I am against is any government intervention in the market, since there is nothing to fix. I'll be glad you can point me out example of why it is necessary to have regulation of the market.
I am against any direct or indirect licensing meant to protect a small group of people from competition, (As the taxi example, and some other that are hidden behind the "public good" incantation)
And against any subsidize for dying industries,
Any compromise is not free market.
I think you are confusing "free market" and "unregulated market" Theres a lot of recent examples in USA where de-regulation caused more harm then good. Sorry I don't much about France http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_electricity_crisishttp://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gramm%E2%80%93Leach%E2%80%93Bliley_Act |
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Why not just adopt Bitcoin itself as a main currency? You could even set up a fractional banking system based on top Bitcoin. The first government to do this is going to have a huge economic advantage for the rest of this century.
You know, it's REALLY difficult to do FRB with Bitcoin, since you are REALLY relying on having more people funneling in Bitcoins. And guess what happens when some-one wants to withdraw? Either you start funneling Bitcoins out of other's accounts, and they're left with the IOUs. And what happens when they want to withdraw, etc. It's possible, but difficult. That's why wallets were made, so people can be their own bank. And not have to go through the bureaucracy that comes with banks. And they can't be left with IOUs, ever. Either a Bitcoin is there or it's not. If you can do FRB w gold you can do it w bitcoins. The difference is if people have wallets then they dont need to keep their deposits in a bank. But loans would still exist and credit money would still exist. Banks dont really need deposit accounts these days to create loans. For example if you lease a car, the leasing bank creates credit without any deposit accounts To do this (that is create credit without a deposit), banks need a governing body called a central bank which works behind them actually creating new money on behalf of a lending bank. Without a CB, banks could only issue their own "private" money. Now guess what happens if this money is Bitcoin (that is there is no central bank). I just showed example where credit is created w out Central Bank. Most if not all car companies has financial services. If they didn't youd have to go to commercial bank which then is connected to the Central Bank. But surely BMWFS dont have deposit accounts. |
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IDK, I think you are just trying to be anti-regualtion for the sake of being punk. Just think about why these regulations arise in the first place. I am not against any law. As long as it protects private property of individuals and companies. I will never make a compromise on what I judge (not law), is a violation of my property. (be it physical, material, or intellectual) Law is a tool we can use to protect against such violation. The definition of violation is in each of us, and not written in law, law is only a tool. Law is not here to protect people, but to protect property from looter. If you agree we judge any law against this criteria, let's make make a reality check. If you are talking about patents, those are to protect the inventor. I agree with the goal of trying to protect an intellectual property, here is my problems. As an entrepreneur, how do you know you have not violated one of the 9999999 patents in existence ? As an entrepreneur, if you protect yourself with a patent, you can't enforce it without having a team of lawyers that check violations full time. And if you find a violation, you'll have to fight for it financially. So, finally, where is the benefit of such patents ? Response : Big companies, Patent trolls, Lawyers. As I said, law does not protect people but property violation. The patent does not protect the inventor but intellectual property. A small entrepreneur can't afford it, this is one barrier of competition. Now let's talk about Taxi, Law, again, is protecting property. A material property called "taxi license". Uber driver, for the taxi drivers of my country, is a violation of property. And they are right. The effect ? Uber Taxi, and all car sharing services is regulated in my country. To the point of making them impossible to very difficult to operate. So you want to be a taxi ? Give 200K and you can compete. At whose fault ? It is not the taxi driver's fault. It is normal that their property is protected, they paid 200K for it after all. The response is the sole existence of such license. It is interesting that in my country, the regional part is distributing it for free... to who ? To big taxi companies that then resell them 200K to taxis. But hey, initially, the law was to "protect taxi drivers" whose margin would have suffered from the over supply of a job that does not require any qualification would induce. The result is barrier of competition, again. For the generic medecine, you are again citing Wallmart and CVS, and I was not speaking about the reseller. I was talking about the manufacturer "Licensing of Drug Packaging Manufacturers". They are the one that buy from china, remove the drug repackage them, apply 10x the price and resell it to wallmart, cvs etc... The interesting thing, in France, is that the "social security" pay for the drugs "to protect the consumer" which become totally insensible to price. Well... that mean that if you want to repackage your own as the big are doing, you'll need to get the approval which close competition again. Without the social security, you would pay say 1$ for your medecine. But luckily, now you are protected... The medecine cost 10$ but 9$ is refunded by the social security, paid by the tax payer... Where does these 9$ go ? Hint : Pharmaceutical industry. Anti-Trust law ? Come on, do you really think the entrepreneur can enforce it ? For whose is this tool ? Responses : big business, or a government weapon to put pressure on a company a little too big. Go and fight, with 10K$ for the enforcement of this law, I'm waiting. I refuse to call such system capitalism, and certainly not a free market. Some market are free, software industry is relatively free, despite of patents. But we have skill related barrier of entrance, and thus do not suffer from oversupply. I don't really understand what you want. No regulations? That's gonna be like 3rd world countries. A free market requires regulations to make it free. Sounds like a paradox, but that's how it is. Look at historical examples as well as current |
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a hedge fund should have some strategy. If they just buy & hold, heck you can do that yourself
I agree, however GABI hasn't even launched yet. The question at hand (IMO) is have they already started accumulating, and if so are they primarily doing it OTC? I personally wouldn't expect to see a legitimate hedge fund actively, and knowingly, manipulating a market to such an extent to take their position. I'm no wall street guru, but I'd think that kind of activity is illegal. The founder was a oil futures trader so I'm curious to what he plans to do w bitcoin |
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Sorry I meant to add input to this and not just point out failings further absurdities. I think the hedgefund is going to be big, but I think it's been in the works long enough that big fish already got wind of the situation, and that is the reason for the market manipulation a we've seen where there are 1000-1500btc dumps aimed at causing panic in an otherwise healthy market. Bitcoin doesn't react to FUD these days, so the powers behind the shadows have to physically move the market to get people scared. Unfortunately the trading bots exaggerate the slippage and this has been keeping the consolidation period going. But basically the entire thing is happening because someone big wants in. I suspect multiple people are working together towards a mutal goal of causing orchestrated panic to keep a price ceiling in place while they work to position themselves better without causing a panic buying event. These are the kind of people who want to buy 50000 btc without any price slippage. That's a tough goal but what if you could pay your friends who have substantial market moving abilities to dump a few thousand coins and then buy back in lower? And do it over and over? To me this market manipulation is actually bullish, because it tells me smart money wants in, but they're doing it in a clinical and organized way to remain quiet. That means smart money believes in bitcoin, and they're smart  so that's why I think the fund hasn't caused a rise. I think last time there were two bear traps before the fire works, so why not this time? Possible, sure. But if GABI is looking for 200MM in holdings, that's approx 385,000 BTC at the current market rate. These piddly dumps and buys is nowhere near that kind of volume, even cumulatively. a hedge fund should have some strategy. If they just buy & hold, heck you can do that yourself |
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Note that a merchant choosing to accept BTC is a big deal in terms of PR, stockholder confidence, and technical integration. But going to the bitpay/coinbase app and adjusting the dial from 100% fiat to 90, 80, 50, 25% is a simple. In other words, these services may be a gateway to corporate btc ownership -- when BTC starts to rally we may find flows coming from merchants dry up.
I dunno about this theory. DELL & EXPE are public. Where does it get listed on their balance sheet? Any CFAs in here? For what it's worth, I believe Dell was purchased by a private equity group and is no longer public. But from my observations (not a CPA or CFA, but I am an MBA and a CVA (Certified Valuation Analyst)), most public company balance sheets aren't particularly detailed in the mandatory releases. BTC would probably be considered in the current assets section under cash/equivalents...possibly under short-term investments. There is no way they would be compelled to release what they have in BTC compared to dollars, yen, euros, etc... Would companies hold cash in foreign currencies though? I used to buy supplies & production abroad and I just do the conversion at time of payment In my experience, smaller businesses typically would not hold much, if any, cash in foreign currencies. For larger companies, though, it depends on 1) exchange rates, and 2) in what currencies are the operating expenses denominated. I suppose if you had a large cash reserve and a forex trader on staff you can do it. Usually, we make supply contracts like 6 months out. So the price is locked in the foreign currency at current spot. Usually YEN or EUR. The only reason it makes sense to hold foreign reserves is if I speculate a rise against USD. I don't know if a big company would do this. Its too much extra work Besides why would they hold BTCs if they have no invoices in BTC? |
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In USA regulations prevent monopolies. Anti trust laws
Ok, so tell me why I can't open my own pharmaceutical business and buying medicine that cost 5% the price of here from china, changing the packaging to sell it 10x that, exactly as the pharmaceutical industry is doing. The anti trust law are only for big companies. If you have 5 big companies, they will use on anti trust law to attack the best one. It is not meant to be used by the small entrepreneurs. It is used by the big one that help building the wall of legislation designed to prevent small one from coming. You don't see laws that prevent competition as such, such laws will be publicly called for the public good", they would not call them "Barrier of entrance" or "big business protection" laws. That has nothing to do w regulations. If you area scientist and invent a life saving drug you start company. Raise investment money and go through the same approval process as anyone else. There's tons of biotech companies out there. Look on the stock market and you will see If you are talking about FDA regulations, thats for consumer protection So ones again, why can't I buy the same medicine from China they are doing, and sell it myself ? The FDA can test them right ? Why don't they allow any business to re package trusted generic medicine from china, but allow the one with pockets deep enough, to buy the right to do it ? Why is there such a price different just for a repackaging of medicine ? If not because the legislation keep out any new comer that would lower the margin. There is countless law "for consumer protection" that are backed by nothing, but are just barrier of entry to protect against new comers. Why can't I create my own money or own stock without buying the financial license that cost 200K to do so ? Why only big business can get access to these funds ? Try to build your own company, and you'll see all the pain in the ass they make. And if you succeed, you have to face the patent trolls. Why do you need to pay a licence of 200K to drive a Taxi ? You named it to keep competition out. You can re-sell generic drugs but good luck in trying to get it to market. You are talking about generic over the counter where the patents have expired? Walgreens or CVS does this You can create your own stock. Just incorporate and issue shares. To start fund you need to gather investor money and get yourself accredited You can be an Uber driver. In NYC the yellow cab licenses are restricted though IDK, I think you are just trying to be anti-regualtion for the sake of being punk. Just think about why these regulations arise in the first place. |
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Note that a merchant choosing to accept BTC is a big deal in terms of PR, stockholder confidence, and technical integration. But going to the bitpay/coinbase app and adjusting the dial from 100% fiat to 90, 80, 50, 25% is a simple. In other words, these services may be a gateway to corporate btc ownership -- when BTC starts to rally we may find flows coming from merchants dry up.
I dunno about this theory. DELL & EXPE are public. Where does it get listed on their balance sheet? Any CFAs in here? For what it's worth, I believe Dell was purchased by a private equity group and is no longer public. But from my observations (not a CPA or CFA, but I am an MBA and a CVA (Certified Valuation Analyst)), most public company balance sheets aren't particularly detailed in the mandatory releases. BTC would probably be considered in the current assets section under cash/equivalents...possibly under short-term investments. There is no way they would be compelled to release what they have in BTC compared to dollars, yen, euros, etc... Would companies hold cash in foreign currencies though? I used to buy supplies & production abroad and I just do the conversion at time of payment |
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In USA regulations prevent monopolies. Anti trust laws
Ok, so tell me why I can't open my own pharmaceutical business and buying medicine that cost 5% the price of here from china, changing the packaging to sell it 10x that, exactly as the pharmaceutical industry is doing. The anti trust law are only for big companies. If you have 5 big companies, they will use on anti trust law to attack the best one. It is not meant to be used by the small entrepreneurs. It is used by the big one that help building the wall of legislation designed to prevent small one from coming. You don't see laws that prevent competition as such, such laws will be publicly called for the public good", they would not call them "Barrier of entrance" or "big business protection" laws. If you area scientist and invent a life saving drug you start company. Raise investment money and go through the same approval process as anyone else. There's tons of biotech companies out there. Look on the stock market and you will see If you are talking about FDA regulations, thats for consumer protection. If you are talking about patents, those are to protect the inventor. |
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...
But the main flaws of your argument are in your understanding of how stocks are valued...
Bitcoin is a speculative investment. People typically buy bitcoin because they expect it to be worth more at t, where t is some time in the future.
Or they invest because they believe that the value of bitcoin is less volatile (or has greater upside) than their traditional currency.
The way you portray the stock market, you assume those are all speculative investments. Perhaps you've heard the phrase "do your homework" in regards to stocks?
There are methods to estimate the intrinsic value of a stock - the discounted cash flow formula is standard.
You can also use Price to Earnings ratio, PEG, etc. etc. to compare company A to company B (typically within the same sector).
Amazon's price is ~800-900X earnings......so then you would say, "see, it's magic!". But no, it isn't.
P/E is just one way to understand the price relative to similar entities. Using the DCF formula, you would find Net Present Value...
for a firm with extremely high growth, and a dominant position (+ high barriers to entry) - like Amazon - the NPV calculation includes more years.
While there is certainly some guesswork involved, leading to differences in estimates and recommendations by analysts, this isn't just pure speculation.
So, intrinsic value calculations will change based on concrete numbers from the quarterly income statements/balance sheets of these companies.
Investors act accordingly and the price changes. There's also movements based on missing or exceeding consensus estimates, guidance from the firm, etc.
Then there are the obvious differences between bitcoin and stock that have already been mentioned.
You might have a better case comparing some characteristics of penny stocks to bitcoin...
but your fundamental understanding of stock valuation needs some work.
Well at least you are contemplating reality. But the point you are missing is that fundamentals are arbitrary and invented. One company's valuation has nothing to do with another. The Beta for an individual stock is nothing more than consensus mind control. Amazon itself is a perfect example, where profits have been eliminated from its fundamentals as its growth potential and global domination trumps any short term profitability. In reality, ALL fundamentals are arbitrary and fiction for any stock, as is your effective "ownership." Embrace them at your peril and do so only to help you sleep at night. "Fundamentals" are nothing more than mass justification and sales fodder for putting your hard earned money in ownership of digital fiction. Bitcoin is a limited ownership in an economic entity that is everyone refuses to label as one thing or another, primarily because of stupidity. So figure out what "Fundamentals" the whales use to drive Bitcoin price, get rich. Yep. Bitcoin is not some magical bubble machine driven by mass hysteria and panic purchases. It is ownership of an asset whose price is driven by basic things that can be measured. Those basic things are more like a stock's basic things than anything else. OK please give us w bitcoins fundamentals then. Explain why its valued at $590 And try to break it down as line items w prices. Not abstractions What and do all the thinking for you? No because you can't do it. Its price derived purely from speculation |
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Fiat currency is the greatest Ponzi scheme in all of history.
I would disagree. Fiat us generally backed by the economy of the country that printed the fiat. Are you f*#king kidding me? You are joking right? If not, that is a hilarious statement...you ought to become a comedian. If the currency and interest rate are regulated by market, then the statement "Fiat is generally backed by the economy(production and service) of the country" assessment is mostly correct. As money is being created out of thin air, effectively it is backed by nothing. You don't know what backed means. Whats Ozziecoin backed by? |
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Solution to poverty  If you mean end poverty, that's impossible even today with great technology, poverty is still everywhere The great solution to end poverty (for me) is everyone collaborate together The technology and resources are there, objectively speaking, to end poverty. The problem is private property and people hoarding shit tons for their personal enjoyment. Why aren't we seeing non-polluting cars of higher efficiency? because the oil cartel is not interested in pushing the new technologies into the mainstream, and so on and so on. Technology and resources are not here to end poverty. Proof is that the poor today has more technology and resources than a king. (That depends on the country for sure) Poverty is a moving line. And yes, oil cartel can hold innovation for their own profit. But what prevent competitor to come, make the innovation, and kick their ass in this competitive game ? Not capital, not intelligence, but regulation. People are pointing finger at big companies for holding the human advancement for their own profit and blame capitalism for that. Forgetting that such monopoly and cartel is made possible by regulation keeping any competition out, backed by our governments. This is not capitalism. In USA regulations prevent monopolies. Anti trust laws |
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How did you money from LIBOR manipulation? Are you a bank? no, indirect losses via stocks and bond shorts. you have to realize that in a manipulated market like this dependent on Fed liquidity, ALL assets begin to correlate as 1. everything gets pumped up into bubble territory. as one who USED to believe in free markets (naively) i, and many others, got lured into the short side expecting bubbles to correct. however, the Fed and it's manipulative banks, don't tell the world that they are going to step in and provide free cash to the reckless to save all their speculative investments. until you understand this, you're just fresh meat for them to chew up in short squeezes. now i, and most, have caught on and one day they will be left to crash their own system. Bitcoin is essentially my new short on the USD system. If you knew this why didn't you ride the bubble? Also LIBOR is only interbank. It shouldn't affect you |
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other threads still think we are heading down, hahaha we are one step ahead!
I don't think we can go down very far. Looks like support above 7777 is holding. As long as we don't dump our posts and HODL. 7777 support should hold A crash to 7776 is imminent. Support dwindling  That page dumping theme has run out of steam... ADMIT IT!!!!!!  We'll all remember it fondly as The Great Page 7777 Pump n Pump of 2014. Sigh.... The good ol days. |
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...
But the main flaws of your argument are in your understanding of how stocks are valued...
Bitcoin is a speculative investment. People typically buy bitcoin because they expect it to be worth more at t, where t is some time in the future.
Or they invest because they believe that the value of bitcoin is less volatile (or has greater upside) than their traditional currency.
The way you portray the stock market, you assume those are all speculative investments. Perhaps you've heard the phrase "do your homework" in regards to stocks?
There are methods to estimate the intrinsic value of a stock - the discounted cash flow formula is standard.
You can also use Price to Earnings ratio, PEG, etc. etc. to compare company A to company B (typically within the same sector).
Amazon's price is ~800-900X earnings......so then you would say, "see, it's magic!". But no, it isn't.
P/E is just one way to understand the price relative to similar entities. Using the DCF formula, you would find Net Present Value...
for a firm with extremely high growth, and a dominant position (+ high barriers to entry) - like Amazon - the NPV calculation includes more years.
While there is certainly some guesswork involved, leading to differences in estimates and recommendations by analysts, this isn't just pure speculation.
So, intrinsic value calculations will change based on concrete numbers from the quarterly income statements/balance sheets of these companies.
Investors act accordingly and the price changes. There's also movements based on missing or exceeding consensus estimates, guidance from the firm, etc.
Then there are the obvious differences between bitcoin and stock that have already been mentioned.
You might have a better case comparing some characteristics of penny stocks to bitcoin...
but your fundamental understanding of stock valuation needs some work.
Well at least you are contemplating reality. But the point you are missing is that fundamentals are arbitrary and invented. One company's valuation has nothing to do with another. The Beta for an individual stock is nothing more than consensus mind control. Amazon itself is a perfect example, where profits have been eliminated from its fundamentals as its growth potential and global domination trumps any short term profitability. In reality, ALL fundamentals are arbitrary and fiction for any stock, as is your effective "ownership." Embrace them at your peril and do so only to help you sleep at night. "Fundamentals" are nothing more than mass justification and sales fodder for putting your hard earned money in ownership of digital fiction. Bitcoin is a limited ownership in an economic entity that is everyone refuses to label as one thing or another, primarily because of stupidity. So figure out what "Fundamentals" the whales use to drive Bitcoin price, get rich. Yep. Bitcoin is not some magical bubble machine driven by mass hysteria and panic purchases. It is ownership of an asset whose price is driven by basic things that can be measured. Those basic things are more like a stock's basic things than anything else. OK please give us w bitcoins fundamentals then. Explain why its valued at $590 And try to break it down as line items w prices. Not abstractions |
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If it were state run, it would be centralized, therefore it would be fiat, therefore it would be no different than cash. We could have per country cryptos that are decentralized, and bitcoin could be the international, but that wouldn't work for many reasons.
Thats correct. The big difference is they might reduce manufacturing costs of minting/ printing. And the clearing might be cheaper. If we are talking about Eucador then they would want to have monetary controls on their currency to control inflation/ recession. Using BTC for them is like using USD, except its unstable and they can't import w it. The only problem with this, is that only people with technology could use the currency, unless there were bills with private keys on them, which would be annoying to import and you could just take the money off the bill before giving it to the store. Id imagine Ecuador is similar to most 3rd world countries in that there is more mobiles penetration than landlines. They'll probably implement something like M Pesa Also I dont they will phase out physical currency completely. What they're trying to do is wean off the USD as legal tender |
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How did you money from LIBOR manipulation? Are you a bank? |
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If it were state run, it would be centralized, therefore it would be fiat, therefore it would be no different than cash. We could have per country cryptos that are decentralized, and bitcoin could be the international, but that wouldn't work for many reasons.
Thats correct. The big difference is they might reduce manufacturing costs of minting/ printing. And the clearing might be cheaper. If we are talking about Eucador then they would want to have monetary controls on their currency to control inflation/ recession. Using BTC for them is like using USD, except its unstable and they can't import w it. |
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Note that a merchant choosing to accept BTC is a big deal in terms of PR, stockholder confidence, and technical integration. But going to the bitpay/coinbase app and adjusting the dial from 100% fiat to 90, 80, 50, 25% is a simple. In other words, these services may be a gateway to corporate btc ownership -- when BTC starts to rally we may find flows coming from merchants dry up.
I dunno about this theory. DELL & EXPE are public. Where does it get listed on their balance sheet? Any CFAs in here? |
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