My friend who is a math whiz but not a BTF member suggests we need to multiply this by 7 because it takes 7 rolls to try to hit the jackpot. So if you hit 1 in every 10000000 tries the amount of rolls you need to hit is 70000000 and that is what you should base the expected loss on. This kind of makes sense in that any series of 6 rolls (or less) has a 0 % chance of hitting.

Deleting the other post and moving it here:

Bet amount : 0.01BTC

Probability of rolling 1x.xx : 0.1
Probability of hitting the jackpot : 0.1^7

Number of rolls needed on average : 1/0.1^7 = 10000000
BTC wagered required on average : 100000

House edge : 1000BTC

To be positive EV, the jackpot should be more than 1000/0.8 = 1250BTC. Yeah.

---

Bet amount : 0.0001BTC

Probability of hitting the jackpot : 0.1^7

Number of rolls needed on average : 1/0.1^7 = 10000000
BTC wagered required on average : 1000

House edge : 10BTC

To be positive EV, the jackpot should be more than 10/0.5 = 20BTC.

---

Bet amount : 0.000001BTC

Probability of hitting the jackpot : 0.1^7

Number of rolls needed on average : 1/0.1^7 = 10000000
BTC wagered required on average : 10

House edge : 0.1BTC

To be positive EV, the jackpot should be more than 0.1/0.2 = 0.5BTC.

which appears to be the most attractive option.



Edit: Just noticed this was in the OP lol. Never mind. Shouldn't have deleted the other post.

I pointed out above that legit buyers of accounts would potentially get banned if the sale of accounts were to get banned, while the seller of accounts could claim that they got hacked. The forum will generally will not take action unless there is (very) solid evidence, so I believe that the seller would probably get the benefit of the doubt, while the buyer really will not have any explanation as to what they are doing with someone else's account.

there will be less people who will go ahead and buy an account.

Why do you think this? There are escrows on forum.bitcoin.com, there are escrows on reddit, and I assume that there are escrows on other marketplace-like forums. The forum administration of bitcointalk has zero influence on what is allowed on other forums, and influential members of the community here likely has a diminished level of influence of influence within other communities that are separate from bitcointalk.

Maybe BadBear and/or theymos and/or another mod can comment on this, however from what I can tell, the account farmers (eg sellers) are worse with the spam then the people buying accounts for signature campaign purposes.

One other point that I forgot to mention previously, is that if someone is in need of money (who is not in the business of farming accounts) can potentially raise some money via the sale of their account. If this person does not have this option then, if they are desperate enough they may decide to attempt to pull off a scam to raise the money they need.

Isn't it a bad implementation though? They generate the 30 initial numbers, without your client seed, and they can generate what ever they want, and you can't verify that they cheated with the inital generation. So while it is technically provably fair, because of how the initial shuffle is generated, they could create a higher house edge by predicting what the gambler likes to do (ie over 7) and generate the inital deck so it is more likely to get under 7?

They should just get rid of the initial generation and play with a fair deck (5 ones, 5 twos, 5 threes, e.t.c)

Possible solution: (just a suggestion)
Two rolls are generated separately in the same process with the same server seed and a standard initial numbers that is the same for every roll.

First die inputs:
Standard initial numbers (6. 30 is good too) (I)
One server seed (S)
One client seeds (C1)

Second die inputs:
Standard initial numbers (6. 30 is good too) (I)
One server seed (S)
One client seeds (C2)

Process:
The same.

So it looks like this:

Time: 2016-06-07 22:28:37
Game:Over 7
Roll:6 - 5
Bet Amount. mBTC: 0.01227
Profit, mBTC: +0.01656
Server Seed:
0c1a6e80e45753bf1018eeee76eb3244
Initial Numbers:
[1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]  (or 30 standard numbers, for example 1,2,3,4,5,6,1,2,3,....5,6 or 1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,....6)
Initial Hash:
fb02ecd1a7814103bd718de5e21e6f21ca746cc9e36ec8d683bc7eb3b93acdd0
Next Hash:
232270e0092a9f4c52cbbade6fb4174f9f58878485d558a5d6f1f43c51da38bc
Client Seed (1):
0.2707008711765295
Final Numbers (1):
[6, 1, 4, 3, 2, 5]  (.... for 30)
Client Seed (2):
0.2938293211765295
Final Numbers (2):
[5, 3, 2, 4, 1, 6]  (.... for 30)

satoshinonce would not be fair for investors and that site is technically not even provably fair for the player.

For player: if satoshinonce is also a miner, they could specify block-nonces (last 1 or 2 digits only) in their mining software which makes the incoming transactions/bets lose (or at least whichever is best for them.) So even if they have 2% mining power, players would most likely lose 2% more often. That's why I think for the player it's better to have TX+VOUT+SECRET like Luckyb.it (and SD before.) Might be tough to change it since.. well.. the site is called "Satoshi Nonce".

For investor: if satoshinonce is also a miner, they could adjust the mining software to only check nonces with 2 specific last digits and include some of those winning 98x transactions in it (and not even broadcast those transactions before finding the block!) Then if they find a correct block, they send it out including those winning transactions. It seems like a guaranteed way to win with no risk. So doesn't help investors much. Would be even worse for investors with TX id though obviously.

Also miners who like to attack/cheat satoshinonce can do this right now BTW. But I assume that adjusting the mining software to only use those specific nonces might take some work and I guess with the low max bet it's not worth it for them.

yeah, wtf? I never heard of this site, but they seem to do it in the worst possible way. As you note, it allows a miner to costlessly cheat the site. (miners can have a fixed nonce, and purely fiddle with the coinbase) and theoretically allow the site to cheat players (I doubt this would happen though, if they were sophisticated to know how to cheat players they would realize players can do the exact same attack against them).

Making bets on the last (couple?) digit of the block hash seems a lot smarter, as now miners have to discard blocks in order to cheat, which is rather expensive.

The "nonce" in a bitcoin block is a 32-bit (4-byte) field whose value is set so that the hash of the block will contain a run of zeros. The rest of the fields may not be changed, as they have a defined meaning.

Any change to the block data (such as the nonce) will make the block hash completely different. Since it is believed infeasible to predict which combination of bits will result in the right hash, many different nonce values are tried, and the hash is recomputed for each value until a hash containing the required number of zero bits is found. As this iterative calculation requires time and resources, the presentation of the block with the correct nonce value constitutes proof of work.

For investor: if satoshinonce is also a miner, they could adjust the mining software to only check nonces with 2 specific last digits and include some of those winning 98x transactions in it (and not even broadcast those transactions before finding the block!) Then if they find a correct block, they send it out including those winning transactions. It seems like a guaranteed way to win with no risk. So doesn't help investors much. Would be even worse for investors with TX id though obviously.

why do you think prices would go up?

As it stands now, most sold accounts are used for non-scamming purposes, and if the sale of accounts were disallowed then the buyers who buy accounts for non-scamming purposes would no longer wish to buy accounts, but the number of accounts for sale would remain the same. Basic economics would imply that the price would go down, reducing the costs to potential scammers

Realizing that accounts can be sold, changed the way I viewed the forum.

even if the mods could make the sale of an account extremely difficult. That would just hike up the price of the accounts and make them far more sought after.

I lost 700mBtc (0.7BTC) today on gambling (dice) site.

Yes, that's why I said "fast game"

Although in theory in the future there could be true decentralized trust-less gambling/investing with sidechains and investors that run some program to sign transactions/bets on the fly (like JoinMarket.) That would mean all investors have to put their BR in a (own-controlled like their own computer) "hot wallet" though and it's not as fast as dice now. Also I am not sure how the random process would work (either dependent on miner or third-party like most ETH smart contract gambling atm.) So I am not sure how practical it will all be, but sounds like a technical interesting project when the time is there

provably fair was invented for the player and imo the best invention in gambling business so why to do it away? please correct me if I am wrong

let's say this problem is solved and investors can't be cheated by casino owners. it will not solve the hit n run option for a casino owner imo and this would mean that investors coins are always at risk

at the end the magic word will be trust (the casino owner)

I am pretty skeptical about that and I still don't think it's possible for a fast game like dice. But yeh, if you don't publish "how" then we cannot check it obviously (:

Every two weeks on Tuesday there starts a new activity period, everyone is able to get maximal 14 activity points per period. Each post equals one activity tilla maxium of 14 each two week period. If u make more than 14 posts in a period, it will not be counted to the next period.

OP ask how to be a hero not legendary

Again your grammar is shit in your reply. You just simply can't formulate a good English sentence.

Brand New:   0 posts
Newbie:   1 post
Jr. Member:        Activity: 30
Member:           Activity: 60
Full Member:   Activity: 120
Sr. Member:   Activity: 240
Hero Member:   Activity: 480
So goes up according to forum activity (not number of posts).

Legendary: Activity: 775-1030

Every two weeks on Tuesday there starts a new activity period, everyone is able to get maximal 14 activity points per period. Each post equals one activity tilla maxium of 14 each two week period. If u make more than 14 posts in a period, it will not be counted to the next period.

Stunna always bashes crowdfunded bitcoin casinos.

I can see why but people are smarter now and no one is investing large amounts in new sites with questionable owners who are likely to scam (Dicebitco.in and dice.ninja).
I wonder what his honest opinion is on BetKing.io/me when it comes to trust and investing.

But your argument doesn't make much.
If the Profit/EV is high then it is far less likely that the owner has been cheating the investors. If the owner was cheating then the Profit/EV would be lower.

Of the 5 Bitcoin investment sites on dicesites.com only 2 are under EV and people could accuse them of playing against investors.

People think SafeDice is legit though and is just below EV because of their risky invest model and were unlucky.

I've never trusted Bitdice so I won't go into that.

BetKing.io has a profit/ev of 140% so it strongly suggests that there is no cheating going on of investors.
Good job it's also provably fair so you can prove the house hasn't cheated players too

I've proved over and over that your funds are safer in BetKing than any other crowdfunded casino and it is a fact that it is the most trusted.
Primedice is certainly more popular but Stunna doesn't secure as many Bitcoin of other users as BetKing does at one time.
Though he may very hold more than the whole of BetKing in his own personal wallet

Moneypot looks like it might be safe to invest in as a couple of their owners (not all) are respectable members of the community, though the owners have only had it for 5 months so who knows.

SatoshiDice you would think would be safe since they have been around a long time but it seems common knowledge that they have changed owners more than a few times.

In response to OP. That is an interesting claim and I will look in to it a bit more. It would be good to see some ideas of solutions to the problem.

But your argument doesn't make much.
If the Profit/EV is high then it is far less likely that the owner has been cheating the investors. If the owner was cheating then the Profit/EV would be lower.

You will have to be a programmer to be able to see if the clientseed was really generated in a cryptographically secure way in your browser (after getting the serverseed hash already.)

That's why changing clientseed manually is still better.

That's also why the "nonce implementation" is preferred since you only need to change it once and u can make as many bets as you like. Not like the "per roll implementation" where you indeed have to change the clientseed every bet.

There is some more specific advantages/disadvantages to that, for example a script/bot should be able to work more easily with the "per roll implementation". Also in reality with the "nonce method" you make like 1000 bets but only verify that last 10 losing streak.. so still not perfect. But I really believe on average "nonce method" is better.

Pocketdice's problem is more simple. They could simply generate all 1's as "initial deck", and obviously it would be impossible for you to win if you don't bet on number 1 - no matter how random you shuffle all those 1's with your client seed


OP says that even when the distribution of numbers in the "initial deck" is fair, the outcome can still be influenced to have a slightly bigger chance to have an outcome the house prefers. This could be done by calculating what the different client seeds do with a specific initial deck.

Except for the fact that your roll tendencies can be tracked. Maybe you ALWAYS go "Higher than 8".

So what if pocketdice's 30 "random numbers" have 9 1's, 7 2's 5 3's, 5 4's, 3 5's and 1 6?

Thats thai baht, and a lot of thailand people are on this forum so it would be very confusing for them.

The BTC symbol is just fine.

Holy crap, so many people are making wins and claiming that Primedice is the best. I want in! Can anyone make me a PD account? .

I'm in Australia; PD locked me out.

Hola

If you are using Chrome than you find a lot extension for free to get access through Hola, i am pretty sure Hola will make it easy for you to access PD because it works like a premium vpn, give it try and create PD for you.

Can we come back after a permaban?