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Cryptocurrency does have an issue should Artificial Intelligence get menacing. Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking have warned about the risks of AI. An out of control AI would be a huge problem, I think all cryptos would be untrustworthy.
And THAT is just one issue we have to keep up to speed on.
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That's a helpful timeline, thanks for posting it.
So, the endgame is finally underway, the final innings. The fact that BTC has bounced up over $2300 gives me some tiny comfort that this will work out OK.
I have read that the SegWit2x has not been thoroughly evaluated however. If the implementation goes poorly or there are knotty problems, this could go on and on. Which would be BAD for BTC price. A lot of money could be lost, some would be mine...
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I have looked over several threads here at bitcointalk, and it looks like SegWit is slowly being implemented (or planned for, or whatever) AND the price just ticked to (about) $2300, some $450 (or more) off its recent lows.
This suggests to me that confidence is returning to Bitcoin.
But, this might be just a bear trap, especially if anything goes wrong around August 1.
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Confidence seems up now that Bitcoin price is about $2250, well off its recent lows. Let's hope that the implementation goes well and that the BTC community can now come together and think about FUTURE problems that will need to be solved. And plan better for solving them.
With a BTC market value of over $35 billion, one would think that rational solutions and behavior would be very important, even among miners trying to keep fees high. If they kill Bitcoin because of short-term stupidity, then they will lose too.
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I'm just to HODL my Bitcoin through the next few weeks, barring some catastrophic news (which I do not expect). Just sit around, drink my coffee, and hope to get some BTC soon before the price goes way up (that's assuming all goes well -- which it might not). I am an optimist, but who really knows.
As always, only buy risky assets like BTC with money you can afford to lose if things go wrong.
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Just look at that stats, more than 600 blocks are in favour of segwit2x pool and it is still growing day by day. Thanks for sharing this analysis as it made me sure about my recent bitcoin purchases as well as more bitcoins that are going to be mine very soon. Lols. I mean this hard fork would be just blow wind which will disperse in the atmosphere in no time and we are again ready to get those profits we are waiting for.
No need to thank me, I just wanted to stop this FUD which brings good to noone but speculators. As we can see, miners have already started signaling SegWit2x SUPPORT and not only intention to support. This means we might have SegWit2x locked in before the end of this week. After that, there s really no need to consider any further instability cause Bitcoin will be overcoming one more major obstacle. crazyivan and Hui8 Things DO seem to be looking up (BTC problems getting resolved). There is, after all, huge amounts of money at stake, and I would guess that most major players would NOT want their $-value of Bitcoin to go down sharply because of disagreements that could be worked out. Maybe the problem is solving itself. The $2200 (or so) BTC price seems to show more confidence in BTC than three or so days ago. |
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We (an American couple) will be visiting Sweden very soon, I look forward to it very much.
I had read somewhere that fraudsters from all over have descended on Sweden to hack credit cards and ATM cards. Some of the very best from the world over. Sweden would seem to be a big fat target for such hackers as (I read) that such a high percentage of transactions are done by cards.
What is happening re ATM and credit card fraud there? Is it a big problem (yet)?
High percentage? More like 99% Be sure to check each time the website of airline railway operator and so on if they do accept cash at the ticket office. Most don't. You can't get a bus ticket with cash any more, yhay is as far as I remember cause I haven't used a bus in 3 years or more. Also a lot of small shops will say neah when you will pull out notes. It's a pain in the ass for them to take cash payments as they have to make daily deposits and with just one customer it's a waste of time for 10 euros or so. And problems are exaggerated and there was no such thing as a hack wave. Never heard of hackers coming to the country for that. Why would you target Malmo with 300k population when you could target atms in NY where there are at least 5 million card holders. LE. Fuck I can't find a proper article in English and goggle translate sucks and I don;t have the time to do it myself. Just google beggars and SWISH , and you will see how even beggars are dropping cash and going digital. Thank you for the info re trying to NOT pay in cash, especially for small purchases. My wife had her credit card hacked recently, we just got its replacement. An interesting comment from our travel agent: one of her best customers is an anti-money-laundering consultant. When he goes overseas, he pays for his hotel in advance by wire-transfer. We just paid for our hotel in Stockholm by wire-transfer, our other expenses in Sweden will be minimal. With Sweden having been in the news over the past year or two (for other reasons), I am very interested to see how things are working out. YES, I saw your listing of rankings of Sweden and have long heard that Sweden is a great place. Looking forward to our visit. Is it easy to buy Bitcoin in Stockholm? |
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I suppose we will start soon seeing if all of the sturm-und-drang was just big problems with FUD or whether there are SegWit2x. Perrhaps all may be going well, as BTC price is up over $2150 (when I last checked a minute or so ago).
Get lots of popcorn for the next three weeks or so, should be entertaining.
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Just for the fun of it, I decided to run a real life, real money test to compare the efficacies of a BTC Wallet based transaction versus my old world, USD Bank based wire transfer.
Within a matter of days of each other, I purchased two pieces of mining hardware from a reputable manufacturer in China with a solid Customer Service record. On June 19th, I bought one unit and used a USD Wire Transfer to make payment to the overseas Co. Then on June 21st, I purchased another unit, same machine, but used a BTC transfer from my wallet. After 25 days the final results are in.
USD Wire Transfer;
The cash was immediately deducted from my US bank based account on June 19th. It then went into "banking limbo" for 21 calendar days. On July the 10th, the Chinese intermediary bank acknowledged receipt of the funds I sent on June 19th. On July 15th the Chinese Co. acknowledged the receipt of the funds to their Co. account. On July 17th, my account and order were updated as " Paid pending shipment". After much nervousness, emailing, stopping in the bank and updating "transfer info" with the recipient company, almost 1 MONTH later the transaction was completed.
BTC Wallet Transfer;
Upon placing my order online, I received the BTC address to transfer my payment to. I entered it into my mobile phone, put in the exact amount of the purchase and hit "send" from my BTC wallet on my mobile app. ( of course I only keep enough on my mobile app to complete immediate transaction ). Literally within 10 minutes, my payment was received by the recipient Co., Confirmed as received and my pending order updated to " Paid pending shipment". 10 MINUTES!
While there is still work to do, I think it is highly unlikely that such an archaic,clumsy and inefficient banking system can survive the ensuing block chain onslaught.
Death to traditional banking!
Long Live The Block Chain!!!
Great experiment and that's for sharing. Yes, great comparative experiment. But our company down in Peru sends wire transfers to China a few times a year (for auto parts). The money has ALWAYS arrived withing two - three days (just a day or so longer than coming to the USA from Peru). Our bank charges vary (depending on the amount), but come in at roughly 1% of the W/T value. NO, our supplier will not take Bitcoin yet, none of them (the others are in Korea and Japan) do either. |
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In Sweden we have no cash
God this is hilarious I feel like I'm smoking a joint here.
Pakistani and Filipino shitosters who whore themselves for 10 cents a post know better what's going in Europe and what Europeans should do.
Build toilets in your fucking 6th level garbage bins countries then talk about Europe.
We (an American couple) will be visiting Sweden very soon, I look forward to it very much. I had read somewhere that fraudsters from all over have descended on Sweden to hack credit cards and ATM cards. Some of the very best from the world over. Sweden would seem to be a big fat target for such hackers as (I read) that such a high percentage of transactions are done by cards. What is happening re ATM and credit card fraud there? Is it a big problem (yet)? |
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Cash is freedom. A forced .gov electronic crypto is bad for several reasons.
-- Credit and ATM cards are already being hacked -- big time -- in Sweden, the country furthest along to becoming "cashless"
-- Bank accounts could be frozen or seized by banks and .gov at will
-- ALL transactions would be open to .gov review...
-- If the electricity goes out in a storm...?
IMO it all depends on what Germany decides. The Germans really like cash. It might be hard for even an aggressive EU to implement if Europe's strongest country will not go along.
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Is there any Meetup Group that has regularly meetings ?
Would be great to join you, when I visit Peru the next time.
To my knowledge there is no Meetup Group that meets in Peru. My *guess* is that Peruvians are allowed to freely trade Peruvian Soles for US$ freely (in the big stores you can even pay with dollars). We go to Peru once or twice a year, but are not in Peru now. We have a family-owned company run there in Lima. Drop me a PM or check my email addy at my profile. |
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I was a BRAND NEWBIE when I first came to bitcointalk (I had bought my first BTC maybe a month before). I have learned a LOT from various members, both in general reading and asking for specifics (in posts and via private messages).
So, while I am not even close to being a programmer or expert, I have learned a lot here. Alas, I have not learned what is going to happen on August 1.
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r0ach
Buying silver seems to be a brave trade now. Sentiment on the precious metals, especially silver, seems to be about as bad as for cryptos.
I am away now, I have been buying small old European gold coins here and there on my trip. Silver is just not attractive to me.
r0ach (and anyone else), I would be interested in views on PLATINUM, Pt is my "hedge" just in case our financial situation actually gets better, hey it could happen.
Pt apparently has one big fundamental problem, namely that various new automotive technologies (esp. electric cars) will call for less use of Pt.
Palladium has been marching upwards lately, it is a metal with interesting properties (especially re hydrogen).
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I will be sitting on the (metaphorical) porch, with a coffee in hand, watching all the fun. And it WILL be entertaining, as I too have "skin in the game" (own BTC). Note that I will be watching, not selling.
And maybe right before August 1, maybe I will buy a wee bit. Especially if prices keep going down. And hope that these guys (miners & developers) settle these scaling problems and inflated egos.
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Amazing list, now we should definitely create something like this but for bitcoin and/or other cryptocurrencies.
I am afraid however the list would be too long to accumulate limit of the characters in a simple bitcointalk post.
Bitcoin is so hard intertwined with FUD, crazy panic, speculation and paranoia that every day we have someone who thinks tomorrow BTC will be gone.
Yes, it will be interesting to see how the NEXT financial panic happens. My *guess* (worth little) is that it will be DEBT that breaks us, and causes big problems (worse than 2008 - 2009). Yet I do not think that Bitcoin will have any impact on any "macro crashes", at least for now and the near future. BTC is still too small a niche. The big problems we have are deficit spending (and poorly done & corrupt at that) as well as the accumulated debts. Large debts almost always cause these historical crashes & panics. |
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My *guess* is that it all depends on how the August 1 implementation goes. We may get hints of that if there is big movement (up or down) within two - three days of that date.
I believe that so much money is at stake that the major players (all likely to have a lot of BTC or otherwise invested in the system) will find a way to get something good or at least acceptable) by then. Of course big egos and stupid behavior by "Intelligent But Idiots" have caused much pain for humanity in the past, it could happen to Bitcoin too.
But, I believe an acceptable deal will be worked out. But, hell, I don't know. Any buying below $2000 seems good, but risky. If I get the chance to buy at such low prices by the time we are back in a city, I will buy with half the cash I have on hand.
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As long as they understand the risks of "them" screwing up BTC. And they could. Developers. Miners.
But, I have to think that there is SO MUCH MONEY among BTC Ecosystem stakeholders, that some kind of decent agreement (and decently implemented) will happen by August 1 (or pretty close).
BTC price swoons happen all the time, it's "normal", at least it has been. If you have the money that you can afford to lose, NOW might be a good time to start buying. I hope to as well in a week or so (we're on vacation in the sticks of a foreign country right now). If all goes well, I see a possible $5000 in due course (several months to a year or so as confidence builds).
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That article looks like he was debunking himself in the process. I mean, so what if he *claims* to have data going back beyond 1971, he doesn't have data encompassing all possibilities. Then you have the Joseph Tainter quote: "Collapse is rapid simplification on a mass scale". When that happens, actions in the present will resemble actions in the past of which records were not kept. Maybe that is Armstrong's way of stating that he has no idea of what will happen to Bitcoin (and its price). If he sticks to his knitting (mainly looks at LONG history), perhaps his record is better. BTC is new, and perhaps he has not well-accounted for crypto currency. We're still new in this game. Gold is holding up pretty well vs. BTC over the past week or so (yeah, yeah, I know, it's only a short time-frame), but many people ONLY think short-term. Nice to see gold outperforming BTC for a change. * * *
Tainter is an author I have often seen quoted, but I have not read his books. Many smart people seem to like his ideas. |
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To me, it's all a probability thing. I am betting (I don't know anymore than anyone else here) that Bitcoin will likely get its scaling problems resolved by August 1 (or be very convincing that a good solution is coming really soon). If that is so, BTC prices will likely go up again, probably pretty quickly as confidence is restored.
Of course, if the developers and miners screw this all up, anything can happen (bad).
But there is so much money at stake in BTC remaining viable and with its high price that I believe sanity will prevail, and we'll be OK.
Buy (with funds you could afford to lose) at BTC under $2100. I will as soon as I am in a city (soon, on vacation).
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