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I don't know what to think about Bitcoin.  Yes, it has made another nice move, it's around $740 now, up a nice meaty 14% or so in a week or so.

But, as the constant bickering of TPTB in Bitcoinistan continues to bother me (hard forks, etc.), well I don't know if I trust the system to remain intact.  Granted, my use of BTC has been "dual-use" (spend some, throw some into cold storage -- insulates me a bit vs. the high premiums I have had to pay at BTC ATMs).  Nonetheless, the risky-seeming & perhaps rickety BTC system gives me some willies...  

Since I am not a programmer nor know much about Bitcoin's internal workings, perhaps my concerns are unwarranted.

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iamnotback

I did not see the adjective "pugnacious" in the Summary section of your LinkedIn profile...     :p    

Perhaps Armstrong could use a guy like you?  Side benefit: US doctors could take a crack at your conditions as well.

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I am always suspicious of cherry-picked dates when looking at performance of various assets.  Picking a period of 2016 Year-to-Date vs. the past five years (or whatever time frames) will yield "the answer you want".  Picking the performance of gold since 2000 for example (arbitrary, but a "round number, ha ha) would get you an approximate quadrupling of the price of gold vs. the US$.

For some commodities the value will be roughly stable around a certain relative value vs. other things on a longer term horizon (certainly gold, but I don't know about other commodities, my *guess* is that many commodities would exhibit similar (though declining, as iamnotback has mentioned elsewhere) through the years).

*  *  *

The Rothschilds apparently like gold a lot.  It is not at all clear how much they own, but is reputed to be substantial...  Where else are you going to invest your $billion$ after you have plenty of castles and vineyards?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rothschild_family

It would not surprise me at all if the Rs own many tonnes of gold.

Do the Rothschilds know something you don't?  

That family is the classic example of owning lots of quietly held gold, passed down through the generations (other wealthy Europeans have been doing the same for centuries).

That's the spirit!   

I have thought a little about what would happen in my case were the USA to ban Bitcoin.  Yes, I could take BTC "with me" whenever I leave the USA for a more BTC-friendly location, but withing the USA BTC would be of little value to me (can't buy much with BTC if no one will take it).

I have not bought anything via TOR (etc.), don't know how.  There might be a lot of value for BTC in the Dark Web, but at some point does not BTC have to be exchanged sooner or later for currency?  If BTC were stuck in its own universe with no way to convert its value back into tangible goods (or currency) at the end of its travel, then its value seems lower...

Am I missing something?

Sorry for the noob-like pair of questions, but your explanation is not clear to me. 

1)  It seems that you are saying that many transactions will be delayed (more confirmations necessary) or even at risk of getting lost.

2)  This does not make me feel confident as a BTC user who occasionally buys stuff with BTC (I suppose it might make sellers even more so).

Or is the whole topic of hard forks (vs. alternatives) just of interest to developers and folks running BTC infrastructure...?

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We have started treading into monetary terrain that I have not been into before tonight...  So it's possible that the below has not been well thought-out, or is common knowledge among those more knowledgeable than I am.

Yes, I will agree that confidence of users of whatever currency is what makes it work (useful to transact with it vs. bartering).  Indeed there are many examples of paper (or linen) working just fine, even in difficult circumstances.  The fact that that has been happening since China before and during the reign of the Mongols is a good example.

The stamp on the metal became a dominant feature coins from Lydia (approx 500 BC).  The lion and bull obverse with the two rectangle reverse would likely have given confidence among users that the metals were indeed real, and so accepted.  Remember that most ancients were not adept at checking their metals for purity, etc...

I will also grant iamnotback something that I do not have: having lived through a genuine turbulent experience.  From what I read and hear, such experience DOES educate someone in certain realities...

*  *  *

Still, whatever Armstrong knows, there is a LOT that I do not.  And I still stand that there are so many scenarios out there that could happen that I cannot predict..., so part of my wealth is help in precious metals -- primarily gold.  Which is still retained about as much in Storage of Value now as it had way back when.

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Bitcoin ATMs are a nice way to get visibility for BTC, but the premium I have to pay in my city are a very high 14%.  Also the first time using you have to supply ID and cell phone number (KYC/AML laws).  The 14% is the major barrier though. 

My guess is that BTC ATMs are not going to affect BTC's evolution that much.

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Thank you everyone.  I should have mentioned that I am in the USA, which closes off a few options.

OK, it looks like PayPal is not that good a way to get Bitcoin, thanks for the comments.

FWIW, I tried setting up an account w/ Coinbase several months ago, but could not get it to work.  Circle's service DID work, and the fee was low.  But, Circle then went on to ask for more and more (data, ID, etc.), so I'm out.

localbitcoins has worked for me, but it is hard to set up appointments (I like buying in person).  I will look into that again.

Thanks also for references to Anoon.co, I'll take a look, but again, I am American.

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I have not seen this addressed here (but have not looked very hard either).

I recently joined eBay, and one item I won ONLY had one method of payment: PayPal.  So I signed up (had to).  I have seen various references to using BTC to pay via PayPal, but what I am more interested in is BUYING BTC with PP.  Currently I have no inexpensive ways to buy BTC that are not a hassle or otherwise difficult (BTC ATMs around here charge a mighty 14%, Circle is now unusable for me (more crap they now want me to do), and localbitcoins is rather hard and slightly risky to use).

Anyone pass me a tip to buy BTC via PayPal?  Thanks!

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STT, iamnotback, r0ach, deisik

While Armstrong may have a great record of predicting macro-trends, we all recognize that short-term trends are very hard to measure beyond a day or two.  Very hard.

Since NO ONE knows what is going to happen, I have found it best to be prepared for as many *reasonable probability scenarios" as possible.  Think about what is likely to happen, think about what COULD happen, think about effects on you for each scenario; THEN plan your strategies to cope with the future.

I have explored various scenarios in some depth at another website.  The scenarios in question were all BAD ones: various horrible things that could happen, how likely and what to do now/soon to protect oneself.  For example, there are a spectrum of possibilities that could happen re "Economic Devastation".  Would this be an outcome that would be a Great Depression v. 2?  Would it be a tougher SHTF?  Or the horrible TEOTWAWKI (The Road, One Second After, Lights Out and others)?  The severity of these different, but relatively easy to visualize, would influence choice and amounts of assets to hold, for example.

*   *   *

In the most extreme scenarios, bullets may be the best single "currency" (USA), my lead stash is 9mm bullets (lots of them) for my Beretta.  Along with water production systems.  These cases would likely not have gold (especially) and silver valued highly, at least during the very worst parts...  Still, at some point (probably..., when?), some kind of currency almost always is chosen.  My *guess* is that the most probable candidate would be silver coins, remember we are talking about a long and drawn out time (TEOTWAWKI in this paragraph) when central governments might not be there.  Silver will always retain some value, it is useful too (kills germs in water).  Gold will be there to preserve value through a long period, like giving to your kids.

But how likely are the extremely bad  scenarios?  Ahh, not as likely, IMO, as the milder, but still bad Great Depression v.2 and its more uncomfortable "SHTF".  So, in my own planning, I have but a couple of water filters and only a nominal amount of food stored (believing that the very ugly TEOTWAWKI will NOT be what happens).  Again assuming here no HORRID scenario (no Golden Horde armies devouring everything in the landscape...), I think that gold & silver are perfectly fine as part of a diversified portfolio of holdings.

If things DO go really bad, if the Dark Ages (let's say little/no electricity for the moment), then Bitcoin ain't going to do the job!!  Yeah I know that BTC can still function at some level without an Internet, but, it will fail in actual use...

*   *   *

Perhaps a "1984" scenario could occur.  Crypto might work out well, but maybe not!  At some point product would have to be delivered when paid by crypto (like when I bought gold with BTC).  Ahh!  My name and address are in the system, whoops.

Perhaps we may luck-out and get a benign scenario that features technological advance, benign governments, more freedom, less war, etc.  What then?  iamnotback's advice of some time ago (education in useful skills) might be No. 1.

My point is that we don't know.  As deisik pointed out recently, we don't know which wall will hit us...  Black Swans, by definition are unpredictable low-probability events, even though they have massive impact.

Note that CURRENCY (US$, FRNs in your actual possession, not in the bank) counts as a good asset to hold in almost ANY weird scenario...  In the early days, a $100 FRN might get you gasoline or a meal for your family if the credit card machines are down...

So where does that leave us?  Use the imagination to identify things that could happen, make a best guess to the probability, then choose assets based on that matrix (also what you can afford, how to store, etc.).  Already you can see that the possibilities are nearly endless, so you must choose...

I have chosen, based on my own expectations.  I value diversity very much, that of course includes reasonable holdings of precious metals (gold holdings by far outweigh my silver -- by $-value).  Bitcoin is also in there, but I own far less (at least for now) BTC than gold.  Bitcoin to me is riskier, but has a real possibility of going way up...  Alts?  I have too little time (non-tekkie) to spend looking into harder-to-use and riskier cryptos that are less accepted and harder to use than Bitcoin.

That's my story, and I'm sticking to it!  

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iamnotback

I have now seen several Mark Dice videos, they are hilarious (if you discount the feelings of doom for our country based on the ignorance of our people). 

My favorite was the one where he is offering a FREE 1 oz Au Canadian Maple to anyone who could guess the current price of gold within a very reasonable 25% (some $1600 at the time he filmed it).  In his video, he asks some 10 people to guess, in two cases he loosened his rules to allow the coin to be given away if they guessed within 50%!  NO ONE won.

My favorite guess was from the young lady who guessed $3.00.

We're doomed!

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I am looking forward very much to reading reviews about Cryptosteel products.

All hardware products for protecting Bitcoin are worth critical examination, and those which are particularly useful and/or easy to use should be made known to us.  (Says an owner of Trezor, Ledger Nano and Opendime devices.)

The more quality product that is out there, the better.

Mmm-hmm.  Yes, the predictions leave plenty of wiggle-room for him: it will be easy for him to say he was "right".

For me the value of reading such predictions from people who know more than I do is for the ideas...  To look at his imagination, to use your own, and then to decide for yourself.

My guess is that BTC will go up in its usual violently volatile way.  The prospects are good for BTC, barring some kind of fatal flaw.  Chinese investors sure like BTC.

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r0ach and iamnotback

I addressed part of the currency matter in a nearby thread, but in sum I believe that silver coins would only be used in a catastrophic SHTF (perhaps the more ominous TEOTWAWKI).

Modern history has shown that CURRENCIES (strong ones like the US$ or old German D-Mark) are typically used in crisis situations.  Argentina and former Yugoslavia (as iamnotback pointed) are countries I have examined myself, and they did not revert to silver (nor gold).  As long as there is reasonable confidence in the "strong" currency, the convenience of using currency vs. PMs is the deciding factor.

A world-class Internet disaster would take down Bitcoin as a reasonable alternative, even if in theory it could "work" (paper wallets, etc.).  If Bitcoin's use is so limited now, it would be used much less without electricity or a functioning Internet.  (Granted, the 'Net going down seems unlikely.)

* * *

I worked briefly in the oil business (long ago) and maintain some contacts.  One is a professional geologist (a PhD, who worked as a prized "oil finder" for a major) who told me "There's plenty of oil."

I did not grill him ("at what price", etc.), but I have my doubts that the oil-hating Left has Peak Oil correct.

My *hunch* is that innovations and bright people will come along and resolve many of the energy issues.  Oil is way DOWN in price from its 2007 peaks of nearly $140.

We will just have to see.  "Peak Oil" is a still unresolved matter.

* * *

Re silver and rare earths running out, well so far pricing in rare earths would not reflect that (else there would be some people, companies and countries hoarding -- people who think like me, I actually own 11 oz of iridium).

Perhaps the rare earth metal most sought is dysprosium (for use in making rare earth magnets more permanent), here is a page worth taking a look at:

http://www.kitco.com/strategic-metals/

Note dysprosium...  The price is down 90% from the days when the rare earths starting getting hyped.

I would agree.  I have looked at various studies that support the Power Law Distributions, particularly of wealth and even (political) power.

"It is said" that were a Socialist government were to confiscate and then divide national wealth equally, that within 10 years, more-or-less the same hands that held the wealth BEFORE would hold the wealth again.


Also agree re no panaceas.  Work and vigilance will always be necessary.

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There is a lot to address in iamnotback's above post, but I will limit my comment here to the actual currencies that are used in crisis situations.

Yep, almost everything I have read (which includes FerFal and former Yugoslavia) is that the locals always choose a strong currency (US$ or D-Mark) for everyday use.  It is much more convenient.  You see that everywhere, including places that are were not in terrible crises (ex-Warsaw Pact countries when I went in 1984 before Communism fell).

Silver coins probably would be OK for "money" in a SHTF, as there is recognized value, but the S would have to be very bad...

Gold is for preserving wealth, but perhaps would be used in large transactions (buying land or a house, or even a containerload of bearings).

iamnotback already knows that I am extremely favorable on holding gold as a longer-term holding (as well as diversification), but gold & silver do not cover all bases... 

Currency has its uses.

That's a great take on the BTC vs. US$ vs. Au question: that your investment of choice between the three would be influenced on what you plan to do with your money.

Assuming for the moment that you would not need the funds for a while, then both BTC and the dollar have been going up lately (gold less so).  I have all three, but my holdings of CA$H are really for lack of a better alternative now.  BTC and gold are good alternatives, and since they move somewhat independently of each other, holding both is good diversification.

BTC is certainly good short-term, at least while Chinese investors are worried about their government trying to seize their money...

Hmm, nice back & forth re Aussie culture vs. American.  I have known just a few Aussies, and just in passing, but you guys do seem more ready to rock & roll than most Brits (who are fine people).

America would be a good place to come to except that there is the real possibility of the Democrats (and complicit or weak Republicans) stacking the demographic deck... 

Unless we elect Trump, we cannot even rid our country of felony-convicted, illegally-here gangbangers.  (future Democrat voters)

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Armstrong and iamnotback have gotten the latest moves in BTC and the dollar pretty spot-on.

BTC may still have a nice little run left in its current spike if some of the Chinese wealthy continue to want out with their money. 

So much BTC is there in China that it behooves us to keep a careful eye on their markets...

Ever observant Zero Hedge has another article today on BTC's latest spike up.

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I first found about Bitcoin from the alt-finance site zerohedge.com.  During the price mania, they were covering BTC almost every day.  

Spencer Bogart (of investment firm Needham) has a long piece on the investment case (he's a bull, sees price to $848 soon) on Bitcoin:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-27/needham-raises-bitcoin-price-target-848-heres-why

Rather interesting!  Among his many observations is that Bitcoin price volatility is going down.

panju1 nails it, IMO.

Your BTC are no one else's business.  I don't do illegal things, but I sure as hell don't want casual (or not so casual) thieves eyeing me or my family as a target.  And if you count Landlords and Employers, it is none of their business either.

Mixing BTC protects those your SEND BTC to as well, particularly businesses.  Were I running a business, I would offer a discount vs. cash (the only business I send BTC to is Provident Metals, and I send them mixed coins -- alas, Privident charges 1% more for payment by BTC).