1B(1btc=$50k)x2=2B(1btc=$100k)
2Bx2=4B
4Bx2=8B
8Bx2=16B

4 halvings
2024 2028 2032 2036

..
now lets use the 4 ATH of
2025 2029 2033 2037
2.8b(1btc of $140k) in 2025
2.8bx2=5.6b in 2029
5.6bbx2=11.2b in 2033
11.2bx2=22.4b in 2037

my view, and from whats already happening. is as such

looking at the institutions.. we have things like DCG and river financial
looking at their funders we can see kingway capital
all of which have invested in core devs and many bitcoin services.

they have invested ALOT of money into things that incentivise making bitcoin network annoying whilst promoting subnetworks for middlemen hoarding/routing.

so yes the path being set is to make bitcoiners lives more burdensome and making a path to ETF easier..

its not a new game
back in the days of creating the commodity markets of things like wheat.
the commodity offering institutions got regulators to help them kill off the family farms and replace it with commercial farms. whereby they begun to control the wheat markets.

we should not be stroked and hugged and kissed with loving whispers into accepting the only way forward is to abandon the bitcoin network and move to commercialised subnetworks. we should not be ego stroked into accepting bitcoin should only be the reserve currency rail for the elites, while having our funds syphoned in commercial services of middlemen, via fees, account renting and wallet premium subscriptions of on offchain services

my view

grayscale has already lost 28% of its pre-launch holdings in one month.
so lets fast forward 3months time.. other ETF will then be having to majority buy from spot open exchanges and/or miners
meaning less supply/more demand on spot markets

ETF's are not looking for a scheme that lasts 6 months, they have business plans set for the next 5-10 years. and so forward-looking, the impacts on spot will come forth. its still the "early adopter" stage for them

pension plans only diversify/adjust portfolio/divest(from trad-fi) every quarter on average, so yet to see many pension plans buy into bitcoin etf shares. thus the buckets of coins needed now, compared to later years is a big difference.

things will shift to greener pastures. but not this month

as for your thoughts that these ETF institutions will use the coin to manipulate spot via day trading.
when locking coin into custody, there are contracts involved when assigning shares pegged. these cant simply be released as easy as you think, nor can the institutions fractionally reserve double trade their collateral. SEC has rules to prevent this

EG
the deals to move out grayscales 28% so far are not made same-day. they are plans made pre launch where grayscale had a queue and a daily limit.

many people pre etf launch expecting grayscale to hold onto its hoard. and not shuffle it over to other ETF. they thought ETF's would buy their own coin from the open market..
however january shown just a institutional shuffle from one etf to the others.

however there is only so much coin Grayscale has.. (72%) left. meaning 28% lost in one month
eventually other ETF's are going to syphon coins from the open spot market instead of shuffling. and these large basket purchases will directly affect spot price..

as for the effect on the other ecosystems such as merchant use and services offered.. well gold is not used in retail purchases of goods or services, so not much positive impact on merchant use due to being seen as an investment asset..

what bitcoiners need to do is not wait for ETF investments to spark some commercial investment into fixing bitcoin utility annoyances, because so far those commercial investments have produced unfinished sandbox subnetworks used as workaround of work around of work around to the annoyances that prevent bitcoin utility, all of which have not helped bitcoin utility, but just promoted people should use bitcoin less.. so no positive impact there

we need a fresh set of eyes, a fresh set of devs to go back to scratch and propose different strategies to solve bitcoin scaling/utility. that actually benefits bitcoiners.

ETF businesses have put a stake in the ground to say they see bitcoin as something that will be around for years. but now we have to get on and actually start proposing proper proposals to make bitcoin easy, cheaper to use for the benefit of bitcoiners instead of waiting for commercialised flawed sandboxes to solve things for us

there are no issues in how people want to use bitcoin, but we should atleast strive to point out the risks and not just play promotion platitude ass kissing

(people on this forum have already heard the word bitcoin to have even found this forum. so they do not need the cheerful whispers of utopian promotional recruitment speak, they are now looking for the real, factual information and risks they need to be aware of)

bitcoin in CEX have no insurance. so unlike a bank you do not have the $250k FDIC insurance
use a CEX if you day trade where depositing/withdrawing is a hassle but realise the risks. and note the "you can lose all your investments" slogan

holding long term because you have no intent to sell anytime soon. its best to suggest storing on ones own private key. but note the risks of different wallet, software and what they do or dont offer

..
those taking advantage of ETF share buys. should know although they get tax advantages whilst getting exposure to the spot price. they need to know their broker, ETF trust at their sole discretion can close the share offering. and shares are not claims to any rights to any asset held. you cannot redeem bitcoin spot ETF for actual bitcoin. you only have price exposure at a share ratio to bitcoin price based on the Nav number the ETF trust chooses and can change at their sole discretion without needing to give notice or get votes from share holders

gold went from $1.1k range 13 years ago to $2.2k so in next 13 years might be $3.6k-$4.4k at best.. but bitcoin will in 13 years get 4 more halvings ('24, '28, '32, '36) so bitcoins deflation will outpace fiat..

also gold only went high due to fuel going from $3/gal to $6/gal. fuel to mine gold is coming back down to the $3/gal range so gold can correct down below $2k, so dont expect $4.4k/oz of gold to be a low min.. but a max if inflation continued to 2x over the next 13 years

gold only 2x in 13 year. bitcoin since 2011 has gone $0.30->$50,000(166,666x)

im not suggesting bitcoin is ever going to 166,666x ever again as each halving cycle has seen less and less increments. but bitcoin will healthily outpace inflation

even if each bitcoin cycles ATH only peaks at 2x of last
EG 2025 ATH=$140k
2029 ATH=$280k
2033 ATH=$560k
2037 ATH=$1.12m

the feel of $1.12m will feel like $560k of todays fiat purchasing power(if gold/inflation was to 2x again in next 13 years)

the effect i have noticed is this:

when people had mixer avatars and footers.. alot of their posts were always aimed at privacy, where they would then mention a mixer..
now when i see the same people with betting avatars/footers. their conversations are now gambling related...
when people are using/paid by the merit cycle troll meme.. their posts become more trollish

seems money decides their mindset

not sure why anyone cares about market caps

market caps are not a measure of any real money stored as reserve to then pay out every holder at that $amount
market cap is just a measure of a small/decimal amount of an asset multiplied by asset total count
its never been about money held to reciprocate/fulfil all sells at that price.

there is not $13T of money held to fulfillguarantee all gold
there is not $900b of money held to fulfil/guarantee all btc
there is not $3T of money held to fulfil/guarantee all microsoft shares

market caps are just a unit price * total units
where the price and thus cap can change based on buying or selling just one unit.

anyone can right now create an altcoin with a 1trillion token pre-mine..
sell 0.001 token for $0.10
and at a real world cost of $0.10. create a market cap of $1quadrillion

anyone can right now create company with a 1trillion shares. (metaphorically, though securities commission will have rules)
sell 0.001 shares for $0.10
and at a real world cost of $0.10. create a market cap of $1quadrillion

no one ever, not even feminists or anti-feminist women ever thought that the only way to get successful at business was to marry a man

whats been noted is for generations is
no one needs a marriage to raise a family.. they can have one night stands instead
people can adopt.
people do get divorced

the idea of the 1950's media propaganda of the womans place is in the kitchen never lasted long. women worked before the 1950's and after it
marriage in of itself is not a timely thing. even the need of gold/diamond rings is just a consumerism ploy by advertising. it has never been a timely thing of centuries of tradition

what has been noted compared to the 1900-1900's to now is
traditionally century+ ago people were peer pressured into abstinence and courting and then marrying by society. where by being seen as single in late 20's was seen as shameful or odd..

where as modern times people(both genders) are now more free to make decisions for themselves, and this includes choosing career over family or choose same gender over opposite gender
this is not to say traditionally women had to be married to have a career. quite the opposite. women choosing not to have a career chose family. due to the fact that a salary in the 1800-1900 could afford the lifestyle of 2 people. where as now both parties of a couple or single people need to work to live a good lifestyle,

it has little to do with feminism.
feminism didnt push more women into work, the economy did,

i expect no green or red days of spot as a result.. just a custody backroom shuffle from one etf(grayscale selling) and other ETF buying. thus balance each other out

correct title of topic should be
BTC to Bitcoin ETFs - The ownership are shifting from centralized to other centralized ownership
we have yet to see the mass individual sell off to then shift to centralized.

in many economic topics of this forum i see many people have misconceptions..

saving vs investing
many quote how savings should be avoided and people should throw every penny into investing due to inflation.. where investing earns more
let me clarify

saving is not a long term thing. not a wealth creation thing.
saving is a temporary play to only save a small amount to literally SAVE people from incidents of rainy day, emergencies where they need quick access to money. to literally SAVE you from having to resort to selling investments at a loss or using debt in an emergency.
you are not suppose to put all wealth into savings,

the gameplay is simple.
if you income is say 2000units of any currency(denomination is not important its just a demo)
and say
housing was 800 (40%)
groceries was 400 (20%)
bills was 300(15%)
leaves you with 500(25%) of excess

for 3 months save the 500 to get a rainy day savings pot to cover a month of bills and essentials
then after that put 500 into investing. knowing if your salary doesnt arrive on time or you lose a job and takes you a month to find ANY other job/start getting social security(unemployment). you dont then need to extract investments or use credit cards/debt. because the savings will save you

as for the inflation concern. a 4% inflation devalue of 1500 is only 60. by which any time over the year you can add in 60 to top up savings to equate to next years rate of bills
EG
5 a month of the 500 excess goes to savings to keep savings at a rate adjacent to rising bills cost. so you can still invest 495 until you get a salary pay rise that the counters the depletion
so the fears and misquotes of people suggesting not to save at all and throw everything into investment are not as well guided as they seemed
saving will save you from investing badly and save you from panicking in dire times to not need to sell investments at a loss,
in short savings will save you

minimalism vs frugality
alot of people think to save/invest requires being super frugal, live under a rock like a hermit and never spend. this is not the case
instead develop a minimalist lifestyle.
decide what actually important to your life. what things serve a purpose/function, gives lasting memories.. and spend wisely.
do you need all the clutter of dozens of branded shoes, clothing, household luxuries/decorations.
or can you find the minimalist unbranded options that serve a regular function to only need a couple items

develop it further. do you really need the lavish new luxury car, or just a minimal model that gets you from A to B
do you really need to pay premium transport, carry 5 luggage bags charging extra at airport, containing every item of clothing and gadget your house had. and then sitting in first class on a plane... or can you just put a weeks worth of underwear and shirts/pants into one bag and sit in economy.

frugality of hermit crab living can be a short term aid. but at somepoint going super frugal fails itself because living on "survival" mode too long is a mental break that cant last. the stress of surviving and not living will become its own downfall which usually ends up with people splurging in excess to get that feel good feeling to regain sanity.
so instead be wise about your spending. note wasteful. make purposeful decisions on things that make your life have good long term feelings/memories. and cut out on the wasteful stuff you usually dont care about a week after purchase

side note. DCG(genesis) gained control over ~27,800btc controllable coin from winning a courtcase that seen in favour of genesis being owners of 31.2m GBTC shares that were in LOCKED in dispute with the gemini(earn) case.. so those coins are free to move now
(31.2m shares at @0.00089309btc per share= 27,864btc)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/genesis-wins-dispute-with-gemini-over-ownership-of-grayscale-bitcoin-trust-shares-d035c006

sidenote.
DCG owe another $2b (~40,000btc) in other court case. (was $1b now $3b in dispute)
https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2024-02/genesis-amended-complaint.pdf
 so expect DCG(grayscale) to sell them 31.2 GBTC shares now they are open to move and in DCG control

cases were civil.. not criminal, so fines are involved not prison
however if a civil case can prove criminal act(forgery/fraud).. it becomes evidence.. THEN.. criminal charges can be filed if authorities get a criminal complaint with evidence..
.. watch this space

you should check that GBTC was offering alot of coin on the same platform as blackrock and some other ETFs
GBTC and blackrock both use coinbase prime(part of the custody OTC suite) not the standard coinbase public exchange..  know the difference

if you look at how many coins GTBC had jan 10th. compared to now. and then look at how many coin all other ETF have now compared to jan 11th.. you will see the shuffling clearer

when you look at this
https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/blackrock
https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/grayscale
and this


it becomes clearer

funny thing is it was miners doing the negative pressure on the standard exchanges, because they were not part of the coinbase prime(custodian swap) deals of exiting one etf to enter the others

as for your miner speak
the amount of coin that came from GBTC was high.. the amount of coin that came from random miners was near ZERO

however there are some ETF that invested into marathon POOL. and they done their own closed door deals(not on public exchange) with ETFs but that amount was not as much as the deals with GBTC

other miners who sell pressured in january had nothing to do with the custodian deals. and instead were just selling coin on the open spot exchange

know the difference

if still unsure
look at this image below. notice the gray[scale] below the 0 line.. note the shape and angle of depletion.. compared to the other ETF above the 0 lines and angles of accumulation.. coincidence of consequence.. you choose

note the exact points of the 12th, 16th,19th,22nd the pattern[mirror] explains itself

right now ETF are not gobbling up much new coin
most of the coin that go into things like fidelity/blackrock/ark came from... wait for it.. [drum roll] grayscale
so basically its one institution shuffling to another institution

again and finally
legal tender status is not about forcing only use of that currency and to not accept anything else..
if it were true that "force" was there.. bitcoin would be illegal be default

however legal tender status is a higher tier/standard/level of trust in a currency to such a higher standard that courts, banks, treasury accept it
but what comes with achieving this higher tier standard.. are conditions of use. such as needing to audit who/where funds came from/going to. taxation of said currency and many other things like limitations on spending amounts before certain levels of reporting of suspicious behaviour are triggered.

firstly i have been the one pointing out actual examples of core dev funding.. then the religious cult came in to defend the gods

core were funded to soften the network security, beginning with the blockstream funding deals of segwits "backward compatibility"

softforks via backward compatibility allow changes without nodes needing to upgrade to understand new features.. correct
but listen to those words.. upgrades without nodes being ready to understand the new stuff..
.. thats a security risk

if things can be changed without a network vote to activate the change, anything can be slipped in, including exploits
if things can be slipped in without network readiness to activate a new feature means majority are not validating the new stuff, which is bad  security nd goes against the point of full nodes, decentralised network and independent review/validation

by going back to hard consensus does not cause split to the fear height doomad implies.. instead it simply means a new feature does not activate until network majority readiness, thus no change, no split. unless a controversial mandatory fork is devised

yes it hardened consensus means core cant slide anything they like in at a whim unchallenged, but instead means core have to do a better job at offering a feature the majority find useful and dont have exploits, in short it keeps core honourable and keeps core in-line to develop things that benefit the majority. rather then sliding in crap that only benefit their sponsors

the whole point of satoshi's solution to the major generals(byzantine generals) issue was a hard consensus(consent of the masses)
it was a safe guard to stop funky junk getting into the blockchain

doomad and his chums loves soft upgrades because it allows core to change things unchallenged without network readiness, without a network majority vote, because in their eyes core gods are bitcoin and no one else should challenge it, nor make request of the overlords, nor oppose them even when they create exploits

funny part is i was making fun out of the core devs by calling them out on all the broken promises and exploits
first butting of heads was when i called them out of their changes from 2016 which i highlight here.. (and 8 years later look at the ordinals junk)

raising minimum wage raises costs of goods. so becomes a cycle of inflation of labour->goods->labour->goods->labour

the actual counter to cost of goods cost is finding cheaper methods of production. industrialisation, automation, imports.

for peoples income benefit. different NEW industries should open up. where minimum wage people can move into better pay/skilled labour to increase earnings. rather than asking for pay rises within the same company

for instance
grocery/fast food doing self service screens/ kiosks. whereby minimum wage earners then move on to do other roles elsewhere like landscaping on 2x income. thus the cost of groceries/fastfood doesnt need to increase due to minimum wage increase demands. and the populous find better jobs to get above minimum wage

if you are 25yo+ and on minimum wage of an unskilled role that requires no experience, you have not tried to better your circumstance. minimum wage unskilled should be for the younger crowd of workers that lack experience of the workforce. where minimum wage should be entry level for those lacking experience, skills

no the point is that you read something.. and then separately do your own research.. that way you dont need to be spoonfed like a child
EG try google "china gold real estate" and find many links from many sources instead of asking people on the forum to spoon fed you

my history (trust rating) you keep refering to is your religious zeolets of core dev god worship, plead to core devs as gods and moderators to defend them because im calling them out on their (thus your via echo) BS.. and the social circle completes. for you to then pretend the trust rating is independent proof of anything, is a laugh..because its all linked to your tribes cries,, so proves nothing but that your clan cry when defeated

its time you start to do some independent research and stop being spoonfed by a cult or anyone
it only takes a few seconds to break from your cycle of adoration of the religion that recruited you. think for yourself and try to learn new things that dont sound like an echo of an idiot. that also includes when you blindly suck up to stompix(guestimate guy) too..

anyways
fuel costs(energy crisis) is relaxing meaning costs of goods are relaxing meaning even gold mining will get cheaper. so with it already being on a high, not a great time to buy.. and yes you could have learned this before i told you, should you ever bothered to research energy details when making this topic..
yep independent research about energy would have taught you gold is about to correct so also doing independant research on reasons for "buy low sell high" would have added more weight to research, and then looking at the market gateways of obtaining gold would have added more weight to which you could have informed your own opinion that gold is at its peak not its bottom