i understand more then you know. but your choice of log scaling your choice of line positioning does not relate to the actual hard data

just check the multiplier per cycle of each halving cycle
the multiplier decreases.. thus curve

you made a chart to scale in YOUR log dimensions but that scale wont last long because bitcoin wont exponential to the extent predicted in the next cycle
i say it wont last long because your references show your straight line was using 5.84509376
now its 5.82 meaning its already slipping out of alignment and needed to change a constant.. thus no longer a constant and thats before even the next market cycle completely messes with your "math" again

also even with change.. .. the "explains 92% variance" .. previous references had it at >93%. so your slipping already
so even after adjusting you are still less accurate then before which shows the current number is not accurate even after adjusting it to try to bring it back into alignment.. because it didnt achieve its re-alignment even after adjusting the log

anyways
here is a better log chart

toilet paper craze of 2020 didnt last long
when people heard "flu" and "pandemic" they imagined runny noses.. as soon as news reported coughing but no runny nose symptoms no one raced to grab toilet paper again.. the toilet paper craze died off. in weeks
but then people started stocking up on food due to stay at home rules. stocking up months of food
food storage craze lasted longer then toilet paper craze

if the concern is toilet paper.. then the fear is mild.
id move to washing my butt if retail superstores stopped stocking certain items.

in real times of crises food is more essential. meat and potatos become king currencies
in times of national security crisis. weapons, shelter become crucial..

toilet paper is not top of the list. its more of a convenience/luxury, not a life survival necessity
ud be better off stocking up on tinned veg and tinned meat

in last couple years alone tinned soup in the UK went from 40p (50c) to £1.30 ($1.50)
so thats a 3x mark up
toilet paper didnt really get hit hard by inflation.
(£0.38p a roll to £0.42p a role over same time scale (0.1x))

MONEY for millenia has been the patent of the ruling elite (religion, land barons, government)
minting coins and printing bank notes have been the norm for centuries

bartering community currency was never a big thing

money being government licenced had rules applied of who deserves it, what tax ratings for it were. how it should be distributed and inherited and clawed back in debt/fines etc

..

bitcoin came along to disrupt that. offer another option.. not to replace fiat patented money. but to offer a second choice.
however. in 2013 countries like the EU/UK/US got lobbied into "mainstreaming bitcoin" basically turning bitcoin from a private property class currency into a government recognised currency.. whereby government jurisdiction then applied to businesses and citizens using it.

this was mainly done unseen but in the background of instantaneously banning and then permitting it under government recognition.
the most viewable example was the NY bitlicence, most other methods were less observable

other countries banned it but not overnight re-permit it under government recognition.. most viewable example is china

the ban then subsequent permit. is how governments gain jurisdiction over something previously outside of their remit-grasp-control

..
with bitcoin recognised as currency this did mean traditional fiat money rules started to apply at the gates in and out of bitcoin and slowly sinking its claws and fingers deeper into more aspects of bitcoin

here is the way to imagine it

swap bitcoin for wheat
swap SEC for EPA
swap CEX/de-fi for local/independent farms
swap ETF for big agri
swap AP for industrial farms
swap asset for commodity

now here is the story
big agri commodity traders want to control wheat trade deals. control the price and such. so they lobby the EPA to restrict family farms from doing trade so that big-agri can have advantage. they want to unnaturalise wheat into two categories. dirty wheat and clean monsanto wheat

they send inspectors out to advertise people should clean their wheat and offer services. but then once clean they then claim the family farms are using wheat tainted with plague or not registering their wheat seed with monsanto as legitimate so sue the family farms. the EPA also come along and require family farms to meet higher standards of processing wheat than big agri. because big agri can self regulate

industrial farms wants the commodity wheat exposure for trading but doesnt want the local independent farms wheat as they sees it as dirty unregistered stuff

wheat is not fraud. it suppose to be natural and un-patent-able... but in big agri eyes they see it as plague wheat or monsanto wheat. both of which they dont want independent farms trading without their permission and higher standards and inspections


make sense?
the game is not new

many were expecting the social drama media frenzy triggered FOMO pump

however their are many levels at play

firstly the bitcoin spot market is artificially being held under a $47k resistance wall this week
most of this is caused by FUTURES contracts. as soon as they conclude and participants win. those participants will stop using their separate stash on the spot markets to keep the price artificially below the $47k

you can recognise the signs
first of all. bitcoins trading usually is not so stable in a free un-manipulated market..
secondly you can see on the ETH-USD that eth is staying 98% within range of a btc1:17eth
by seeing eth peg 98% to bitcoin at 17 eth to 1 btc..
it shows many trades are happening on bitcoin to dollar, then dollar to eth, then eth to btc (to keep price below $47k)
it shows many trades are happening on bitcoin to eth, then eth to dollar, then dollar to btc (to keep price above $46k)

if things were truly "free market" "independent"
ether-bitcoin would not be pegging at a 98% where ether shadow traces bitcoins price wiggles at a 1:17 rate

if things were truly "free market" "independent"
ethereums price(different community of utility and sentiment) would chart completely different wiggles to bitcoin market movements

so by seeing the arbitraging going on. shows whales wants to keep prices within a certain range
...
they want to play the futures markets and win bets on bitcoin price to multiply(futures leverage) more coin to then put into baskets to then play around on ETF

all the shrimp and fish that bet(futures leverage) bitcoin would FOMO pump this week will lose. meaning the whales controlling the resistance of spot market will win the losers coin+more


just wait until these contracts end and you will see the resistance walls collapse and a bit of natural freemarket movement where people will be buying actual bitcoin. and .. well back into another session of contracts at the next level

if you zoom out of the market charts enough you will start to see a 'step stone' effect of
            ,~~^~~
~~v~~'

anything a CPU can do a asic can do better

even if mining changed to a 11 algo technique. ASICS can just have 11 varieties of chips each performing each algo and end up doing more hashes than a CPU/GPU

the only reason many of the multi algo mining methods altcoins dont have asics is because they are crapcoins so no one cares to design asic chips to mine those crap coins
its not a techical problem, its a lack of interest problem

..
end result if bitcoin changed algo is:
if the difficulty the day before algo changed stayed at todays asic rated difficulty number and had to step down periodically
the network would have needed many years of not solving blocks due to how long one cpu would take to solve a block at current difficulty

it would take years for a CPU to solve 1 block let alone get 2016 blocks to then trigger a difficulty step down.. and then still years to step down enough to then be cpu attainable mining...

but within that time if the community had not abandoned bitcoin already. smarter minds would have made an asic to out achieve solo mining CPU. so you wont see thousands of solomining users winning blocks per month..

if as part of the algo change they used a CPU level difficulty start point on D-Day
users would already be trying to pool multiple CPU/GPU

and within days solo mining is gone again..
and if bitcoins market, utility has not already been lost due to this silly idea.. smarter minds would ahve designed asics to outperform GPU
and we would be back to ASIC farming again and the silly idea would have been a waste of a couple years of annoyance.. for ultimately nothing

goodluck
you had another chance.. but nope you doubled down..

define buyers

under examples of blackrock ETF
blackrock trades with AP(authorised participants(agents/brokers)) not end investors(customers/citizens)
lets use "jane street group llc" as a example AP with blackrock

blackrock total holdings is (as of yesterday)
~$10m (~227btc)= 400,000 shares total
=10 baskets(40,000share ~22.7btc per basket)

janestreet can and does own shares, as of yesterday 12,355 shares totalling ~$329k
a basket is 40,000 shares totalling ~$1m (pegged to ~22.7btc)
meaning janestreet only has ~33% of a basket

the AP(jane street) needs to accumulate 40,000 shares total to get a voting right to dissolve/redeem those shares off market. and have blackrock signal to coinbase to unlocked reserves from coinbase custodian to then be sold OTC for cash to then give to janestreet cash. whereby blackrock has less coin in custody and less shares to offer.. but jane street would be given cash not coin

so in short no jane street cant get coin this way
jane street wont self custody or be delivered actual bitcoin via blackrock or coinbase as custodian
dissolving/redeeming shares is not a method to get bitcoin from blackrock. nor is it even the best way for jane street to even cash out to then buy bitcoin elsewhere

also to note
if it ever were a case of "in-kind" redemption its not like end use investors/citizens can ask for 1 share worth of coin either.
..
dissolving shares (redemption) is not in the best method of getting in and out of blackrock. whereby needing to buy another 27645 shares to get a voting right full basket to then dissolve/redeem shares to unlock coin custody just to then cash out.. they might aswell just sell 12,355 shares to another willing AP within blackrock.  to whomever wants to take control of the shares and use cash from sell to buy coin elsewhere / enter another market

it just starts with saying gensler approving 11 ETFS
mentions some price movement reactions
middle part says that its a ETF like gold etf backed by the underlying asset and nothing to do with future contracts
the ETF allows financial advisers and brokers exposure to bitcoin price activity
streamline process allows those involved access to bitcoin prices without complexities of self-custody coin management
analysts predict $200k by 2025
gensler had to call out previous days false announcement

..
basically not really a deep dive, just the usual talking points

simplified
ark21:  1 share = ~0.001 btc peg
blackrock:  1 share = ~0.000569 btc peg

Solactive will calculate and disseminate throughout the core trading session on each trading day an updated intraday indicative value (“IIV”). The IIV will be calculated by using the prior day’s closing NAV as a base and updating that value during the trading day based off of more recent bitcoin pricing information to reflect any changes in the value of the Trust’s underlying assets and, therefore, the Trust’s NAV.

the IIV is not used on ARKS public market intraday NAV chart
its used within brokers order creation where those AP wanting to make an order get a price from IIV that lasts 15 seconds to accept or reject

...
its worth noting that the ETF are not selling direct to end user investors. this principle nav and more intuitive IIV "real time" nav is between ETf and brokers..

the demand of end shares for investors is secondary market stuff between brokers and their customers..
so the IIV and principle NAV will be more stable then the trades of end users with the brokers on secondary markets

if you read what i said
you would see that gensler didnt push extra rules to appease warren..
however he did recite her rhetoric as a footnote. which was to not go full native and appearing to cut his strings of his puppet master of the laws he has to follow brought in by committees the puppetmaster is part of.

i never said he went full warren and added in all warrens drafts into ETF requirements
i simply said that he secured his job continuance by reciting her mantra to not appear as going against her. thus still kissing the ring to save face

there is a difference between a knight that fights for his king by slaying the villagers.. vs a jester that keeps his head by kissing the ring and entertaining the king, repeating the kings remarks

a basic car i know of does fuel 40miles per gallon = 8.8miles a litre  UK fuel £1.40 a litre = £0.159 a mile
a EV car can do 3.5miles per KWH UK residential electric is £0.40/kwh=£0.114 a mile

(Electricity   unit: 28.6p/kWh   standing rate: 53.4p/day)
kw house use (single person) 5kwh = 28.6*5 + 53.4/5 = average kwh 39.28p
(if only driving like 7 miles a day you are only topping up charge by 2kwh. thus effectively 40p kwh along with house electric)

uk electric 5 years ago used to be £0.14daytime £0.07nighttime with 30p daily standing rate
=day car charge topup £0.057 a mile
=night car charge topup £0.037 a mile

..
public EV charging stations used to offer free charging now its more expensive than home charging even at latest home charging new expense rate

all i am saying is the economics of EV has broke their promises of "save the planet save the pocket"

wine is wine EG GRAPE juice
as oppose to vodka EG potato juice
as oppose to cider EG apple juice

thus calling it wine means grapes were added specifically
(grapes can naturally ferment on the vine or in buckets without added yeast.. potatos and apples less much, so easy to understand why they would suggest wine as oppose to vodka)

alcoholic or not, the sci fi story says he made water into grape juice(min standard) aka wine

if you take unwatered grapes fermenting in the sun and throw them into water. it creates wine
if you throw grapes into water to then ferment, it creates wine
if you throw grapes into water, add yeast to then ferment, it creates wine
all methods are true but 'alcoholic proof %' vary.. the former would be low % giddy, the later would be pure alcohol that can knock someone out and maybe blind them if not controlled

all this sci-fi book suggests is the main character put some fermented grapes into water and people got giddy drinking it

..
if we really want to get specific about versions of the story
imagine servants on vineyard using feet to squish fermented grapes(standard old practice) thus having highly fermented grape juice on feet
now imagine they ceremoniously wash feet in trough near church flavouring the water (mmmm wine and cheese(feet sweat))
now imagine jesus asking people to take the water from the trough and then hand around..

ok now read
"Nearby stood six stone water jars, the kind used by the Jews for ceremonial washing, each holding from twenty to thirty gallons."

i personally prefer the version where jews also ceremonially wash feet.... and genitals in said water, due to jews teachings from the torah of "genital discharges" which would be thrush which is yeast to make the grape fermented/flavored water even more potent



but you do gotta love the evolution of pairing cheese and wine (feet sweat cheese flavour and squashed grapes underfoot from traditional vineyard practices)

it wasnt where originally someone drank some pure filtered wine and separately ate dairy cheese at the same table and thought "nice combo"
it was the unfiltered mix of cheesy feet flavour of traditional foot squashed wine people prefered over hand/stone pressed wine.
only later did hand/mechanical pressed wine and separate dairy cheese become paired to try to get the same old stimulation

nice try, but no..

try again. you got 2 more chances to get it right before i laugh
you want to make it look exponential because YOU chose to display the data in log format

naturally its not log format.
YOU just the scaled it in YOUR chosen scale of log.

thus YOU are manipulating the results and YOU drew the lines ontop the chart to make YOUR (empty) point
however real world data is more of a curve where the multiplier per cycle DECREASES

good luck with your attempts, but dont waste too much time on it.. because ultimately you dont decide the data path..
the data does its own thing

also..
you got black chartlines outside(below the bounds) of the green min lines YOU drew
you got black chartlines outside(above the bounds) of the red max lines YOU drew

thus rendering your lines void of sticking to data mins and max's

here.. even i can use your chart and create a purple curve

which sticks more to the "max"'s than your line

(how many times does YOUR red line touch the max... once, at the end)
(how many times does my purple line touch the max... six, start to end)

E warren has been continuously been trying to rewrite the financial laws which SEC have to manage under. thus if she writes "jump" and it becomes law. the SEC then has to jump


see how many strings ABOVE the SEC she can pull via her 'committee' involvement

the SEC is not just about "running a clean business" its about auditing businesses for tax too and clamping down on tax evasion
EG the "in-cash" vs "in-kind" ETF discussions were literally about taxes

firstly ark21 was the only january final deadline (legal repurcussions)
blackrock, bitwise vaneck, wisdomtree, investco, fidelity, valkery had final deadline set for march
globalX final deadline set for april
hashex final deadline set for may

note how hashdex had a mid deadline of jan 1st. but didnt shout lawsuit due to no decision on jan 1st
note how globalX had a mid deadline of november2023. but didnt shout lawsuit due to no decision in november


secondly
in politics you can never tell via what media say. most of politics is bribed lobbying and siding with your group even if you disagree



as for manipulation and such

the SEC is not a pre-crime investigator. they are not pro-active.. they are a reactive.
they wait for reports after the fact and then investigate

in short.
a. you are innocent until proven guilty
b. you are only investigated if caught

meaning its only a crime if you are caught

..
its literally what regulations are
if a MSB does laundering for a criminal without report it. the criminal can get away with it if no one finds out
however if criminal act is found out, the MSB also gets law thrown at them for not reporting it

so if a MSB reports on the criminal the criminal gets caught. but the MSB is not fined for facilitating it because they reported on the criminal, the MSB gets rewarded for informing on the criminal

firstly the article is not about bitcoin scaling. its about bitcoin price

secondly the chart is an illusion because it depicts a straight diagonal using "log" chart to pretend price goes exponential. yet thats just manipulation of the axis
(using rough numbers from memory. not exact)

                                                                                                        low       high    low
we are no longer in the first halving cycle where the market went from $0.03 to $30 to $4 1000x max
we are no longer in the second halving cycle where the market went from $4 to $1200 $450 300x max
we are no longer in the third halving cycle where the market went from $450 to $20k $2.8k 44x max
we are near end of the fourth halving cycle where the market went from $2.8k to $70k $15k 25x

as you can see each cycle the multiplier declines. and things get less volatile
thus the chart should not be manipulated as straight diagonal exponential line. but instead natural form of a curve

if you put a knee on a weight scale (change the axis of chart) you change the physics of law and change the perception of reality

liquidity is also still about the ease of sale to cash.
i think the words you are looking for is "circulating utility", "available utility", "open use"

here are some idea's of how utility can change due to ETF
lets use the lobbying that big-agri done to wheat farming due to commoditising of wheat
(something else that was years ago free, open and un-patent-able, after all wheat is wheat right. no one should control wheat, its natural)

once big agri gained a stake in commodities of wheat they then lobbied EPA to implement farming restrictions on independent farmers to no longer farm. so that only big agri can farm

remember how the EPA and gov said how they restrict farming to control the manipulation of commodity markets

notice how small independent family wheat farmers were sanctioned, restricted, sued and bought out from operating/owning their own wheat farm, unless they met some EPA permit standards.

things even went to GMO tactics tainting the seed to then recognise certain seedlings to then sue those using certain seeds. the lull independent farmers into using GMO seeds. to later sue them for using GMO seeds outside their purview

translation to crypto
ETF institutions can then lobby SEC to put more restrictions on spot CEX, and any service business transferring crypto(MSB) to not be so open to individuals, and even make it restrictive to openly advertise/offer coin swap services via de-fi without such de-fi having permit X

then blame market manipulation on individuals using spot CEX. to restrict independent access to spot markets unless you meet conditions

then we move to the coin tainting game by getting individuals lulled into using mixers. thus lulling them into tainting their own coins as suspicious to then lock them out of transferring between retailers

(take note J dimon is a AP of blackrock and said he would "take bitcoin down")

only ark21 had final deadline on the 10th
ark21 could have been made to wait another month (without acceleration)
they other dozen could not have sued

to get all dozen approved and accelerated is best case.. not minimum expectation to avoid lawsuits