Wait, you mean that some bitcoiners panicked over nothing?
NooooOOOooo.
Impossibru!
Yeah, certainly a pattern  We'll just have to see how the MtGox story develops. Their press release just didn't ring true though. They have to suspend all USD withdrawals because of increased activity? Hire some more staff dumbasses, not tell people currently working to stop working. Doh! |
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Thank you for the newsletters and special updates, they have proved very useful so far. There's a big issue at the moment with MTGOX not processing USD withdrawals. Seems that people are selling off at MTGOX and moving their coins to bitstamp etc. to get their USD out of bitcoins. The price differential between GOX and bitstamp.net is currently $11, normally its a $1 or 2. So my question is whether your recommendations over the next week or two will take this into account? If people really are panic selling at MTGOX, the price could stay high (or go higher) for a few days then collapse ....... Just a thought
Certainly, this is a great arbitrage opportunity to buy at bitstamp and sell at MtGox. I.e. if you could buy BTC for 1 million USD at bitstamp and sell at MtGox, you would make approx 100,000 profit now. |
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^ How do you know it was the same buyer?
Also, wasn't $110 the max price of the buy you are talking about (i.e., the resultant price after the buy executed)? I often see the "huge slippage" cited, but we don't actually know what % was bought above market price. It may have been 3.99k at market price, with the last 0.01k driving up the price. Buys like that probably aren't as stupid as they seem.
Because I watched it as it happened, the price spiked to 110, and immediately a wall appeared at 110 which was subsequently eaten. Here is a detailed description of events: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=231934.0All I see there is the same two things: "Assuming it was the same person", and "with XXX slippage". After every BTC crash or mini-crash with a rebound that I've seen, there are always several big buys as people try to increase their BTC holdings on the way up before it's too late. They are usually rushed and a bit wild due to Goxlag. There was nothing new there. In my mind, it would be more interesting to speculate on who (and why) caused the sell-off in the first place. Anyway, sorry to S3052 for being off-topic. Just getting sick of the FUD around here. Actually, it's not so much the FUD.... more how it is so readily lapped up. |
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It's not the same at all. Not even remotely comparable.
Weather forecasting is running mathematical models through a simulator, looking for convergent outcomes, and assigning probabilities to them. It is mathematics based on science. It is not always accurate -- because that is the nature of probability; and the models can always be improved. The beef you have with weather forecasts may also be more to do with how they are presented rather than the forecast anyway. "48% chance of rain" is much more useful than a picture of rainclouds over your city.
On the other hand, technical analysis is based on the assumption that markets are predictable in behaviour due to regular patterns in aggregate human emotion. TAs will tell you that they are modelling market emotion. However they are not -- you will never see any such model presented. Rather they are using patterns in historical price and volume to predict future price and volume. Usually based on premises (such as Eliott Wave) that are 100 years old.
You will see lots of fancy indicators -- however they are all based on the same raw data: historical trades (There is no other data available). They are not even remotely modelling the underlying users and markets at play. You almost never see any TA that attempts to model the reasons for rises and falls. They treat price falls due to bad news, technical glitches, and manipulation equally, assuming that the average market participant knows nothing of the underlying causes too. This may have been (somewhat) useful for Wall St. a century ago, but to an Internet currency in 2013? Really? One could say, that (historical) price data reflects the underlying users and their feelings, behavior and reactions. Furthermore TA could be translated into "mathematical functions" and drawing lines is only a visual representation of that. Technical analysis of bitcoin charts and bitcoin prices has worked very well over its entire trading history since 2010, even in the beginning when market cap was tiny I still remember the first TA with a triangle at 0.065$ where we predicted the huge breakout |
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Down for maintenance according to trollbox. Not the most reliable source of info I know
this is not good if it was not announced.
any scheduled maintenance period should be announced well on time.
just imagine the NYSE is suddenly not working and then people surprisingly find out that it is on maintenance... stocks would crash worldwide immediately |
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same for me. that is worrying for BTC and BTC prices
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I just subscribed to the ActivePro (trial). When will I get my first newsletter? (Sorry, just impatient  ) Thank you very much for becoming a member You will receive it tonight
forecast on track |
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In light of Fincen's recent guidance ( http://www.fincen.gov/statutes_regs/guidance/html/FIN-2013-G001.html) kraken.com would clearly fall under the definition of a money service business and more specifically an exchanger. Therefore I ask: 1. Is kraken.com registered as a money service business? 2. Does the company have the necessary money transmission licenses for the 48 states of the U.S which require them? The guidance indicates operating an exchange to those 48 states whilst not meeting 1 and 2 is in violation of US law (even if the exchange is not physically located in the US, but merely serves US customers). You're right! Like MtGox, BitStamp, Coinbase, etc., once launched we'd qualify as a money transmitter in most US states which means we'd require licenses (or an exemption) in each US state in which we have a customer. Most people believe that it's enough to be registered federally, or to locate your business outside the US but, as you've pointed out, if you serve US customers, wherever your business is domiciled, you need to be licensed in the state(s) in which those customers reside. We'll reveal our US coverage at the time of launch. Obviously, it'd be irresponsible to put customer funds at risk of seizure by operating illegally and that is not something we intend to do. Cool. To clarify, would you have the necessary money transmission licenses before you start serving US customers or are you going to risk it and just start serving US customers with only a money service business registration and no licenses? I'm sure your company has intentions to get the licenses at some stage, the important thing is whether you start accepting US deposits before you get them. It would be illegal, punishable criminally and greatly reduce our chances of being granted licenses later if we were to begin operating without the necessary US state money transmitter licenses. I think it's great that some businesses are willing to put their necks on the line to serve Bitcoin adoption but it's not a risk we're willing to take for ourselves nor your money. We will not serve those customers we cannot legally serve. For illegal exchanges, you have the three options mentioned above, and many more. Great work. You're a credit to the community. It gives me confidence in the future of Bitcoin that there are finally exchanges that are going to do everything by the book and to be frank people don't realise how desperately we need this. A lot of exchanges spin similar lines but when you get down to the nitty gritty of it all, they don't have the licenses. >btcx sounds interesting by when do you think you will start? |
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I just subscribed to the ActivePro (trial). When will I get my first newsletter? (Sorry, just impatient ) Thank you very much for becoming a member You will receive it tonight
forecast on track |
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I just subscribed to the ActivePro (trial). When will I get my first newsletter? (Sorry, just impatient ) Thank you very much for becoming a member You will receive it tonight |
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I have a feeling that we're entering a time where bears are going to be greatly rewarded. Not just in Bitcoin but across the entire breadth of financial markets. I expect nothing less than an epic crash in stocks, bonds, and commodities once the dangerously overinflated QE bubble really pops. I think this process may have already begun, albiet these things take time
In the meantime, I especially love how many users are so "confused" by bear markets - they think there must be a fundamental change, like "omg the price fell what's going on what changed?" nothing changed, bitcoin is the same, it's just the psychology around bitcoin that is changing... When the price exploded, people noticed that and rationalized it (cypris, etc.), and now that the price is falling they will find a way to rationalize that too.
Anyhoo, very interesting times indeed!
you are soooo right. |
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new short term update issued to subscribers
"knife..."
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Good to know, letīs see if I can afford a subscription after july. Maybe I could buy one before, but there are so many things to do now in my "not-bitcoin-job" that I could not devote enough time to trade btc according to your proven technical analysis.
I guarantee you, weīll keep in touch. Even more, the whole spanish group of btc enthusiasts I founded will soon know from you.
Peace.
[/quote
Thank you very much. I love Spain and the Spanish people. I used to be there very often.
In terms of subscribing, July is fine. But if you want to subscribe already from June 10 - June 30 we can offer a special discount. Just send an email to
info (at) digitalcurrencyresearch.com
Hast luego!
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Amazing, letīs see how things develop. But you still did not answer me. Even based on your long experience, "just" graphycal analyses?
Peace
indeed, I use solely "graphical" = technical analysis
and of course, within that, I developed a gut feeling of the bitcoin charts and bitcoin market overall over the past almost 3 years |
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S3052, honestly. Did you foresaw these drops? Just out of curiosity. I donīt know if you just analize the graphics evolution or go further, evaluating factors like the hash rate increasing, the impact of bitcoin conferences, the regulatory laws, etc. Is quite expensive for me, but in the last month the idea of subscribing me to your services is gaining momentum. Letīs see.
Peace.
excerpt from last update to subscribers:
"The red trendline is invalidated and there is more downside in the near term. Most probably, we will see at least re-test of 95 105 $."
and
if we are in a "Sideways / flat correction (turquoise channel and blue line)... In this case, we would likely see a decline into 32 50 $ before prices reverse higher. |
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You know, what confuses me about this drop, is it doesn't appear to be triggered by anything. I've been a firm believer that we would retest our lows in the 60-80 range at some point, but I always assumed it be triggered by some major news event. How sick would it be if this was the ultimate bear trap. Shake all the weak hands and run it up to 500.  |
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last night's forecast is fully on track.
new subscribers are now again welcome
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S3052, what is with digitalcurrencyresearch.com ? It it the new bitcoinbullbear.com ? Is the backend ready to be used for our subscriptions ?
digitalcurrency research has been founded to enable better back end for bitcoinbullbear .
No change to the quality of the analysis and forecasts but better and faster customer service and also better payment process |
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i'm not registred and i can see it, ty. this drop was severe and is berish until 130-135 is cleared to the upside again |
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