Yeah, sort of. But double-exponential (curling upward on the log chart) never lasts. I think we'll hang out around $200 for a week or so (with or without mini-crashes and booms during the week) to catch up with simple exponential growth (straight slope on log chart), then continue up, uP, UP!

If we don't take a breather now and instead continue trying to go faster-than-exponential, we're in for a lot more volatility.

The April crash inoculated us.

Take this to reddit. You will get a LOT of shares if they like it.

It's true, but most of these are subject to confiscation, not transportable if you need to (or are forced to) leave the country, or not transportable in large amounts. Accounts in multiple countries is the next best thing, but it is pretty unwieldy and won't help much in the more extreme cases.

Well $10 is a 20x loss, so you might want to compare it with a 20x gain: $4000.

I think $4000 is way more likely, like maybe 10 to 1 odds.

I should note that when I said you wouldn't want much of your wealth in fiat, I was speaking from the point of view of being afraid of being too heavily invested in Bitcoin. Like the situation where you have a $1 million in Bitcoin and only $20,000 in fiat. If Bitcoin somehow fails, you instantly become a meek peon again, financially. So you'd put some decent chunk, like maybe half, into dollars so that in case of Bitcoin failure you still have half a mil in the bank. That's what I guess most smaller investors imagine they will do if they win big in bitcoins.

But I'm saying even in that scenario, with those concerns, it's still not very attractive to put half in fiat, or even a third in fiat. Because there are other failures to worry about besides a catastrophe in Bitcoin. There's inflation, wrongful imprisonment (or if you're a bad dude, rightful imprisonment), deportation from your country of residence, other freezing of your assets or haircuts or fraudulent activity on your account or run on your bank, making a mistake in your filings, divorce losing you half your stash, etc. Why do anything so risky as to hold large amounts of fiat??

I edited my post to add a bit at the end

I think something like, "If you don't have COMPLETE control of your assets, do you really own them?" could be a great slogan to sell HNWI on Bitcoin.

The weird thing about getting rich in Bitcoin is, it's not even particularly attractive to cash out large amounts - even right now - unless you have a specific purchase in mind. If you had $1 million in BTC, why would you convert even a third of that into fiat just to store it in a bank account where it can get frozen, you have to mess with various additional filing requirements and capital controls, it might be impossible to transport or access it overseas, and it can be inflated or haircutted or defrauded away from you? Not to mention 3rd party risk and general banking inconvenience. These concerns are ten times as pressing for expatriates, especially Americans living overseas, or people living in Argentina or other fiscally messed up places.

The amount you'd want in fiat is maybe only 10% or 20% of that million, again assuming no imminent purchases require it. You would also want some other assets like PMs and maybe real estate just for diversification. But those aren't transportable, and can be lost/stolen/confiscated. Such assets aren't there for you when push comes to shove, destroying much of the original reason for diversifying, which was to mitigate for contingencies. What happens when you get in trouble, need to leave the country, get divorced, and generally "shit happens"?

At the end of the day, if your assets aren't accessible with only your own mind with no limitations, do you really own them?

10000% return in two years? Decent, I guess. If you're into that sort of thing.

You can't have big price increases without big volatility, and that means some gut-wrenching mini-crashes will inevitably happen along the way. No need to panic during those sell-offs and lose your coins. Just put on your volatility flak jacket, strap yourself in and enjoy the ride!

Yeah, seems we're all taking turns here. China was going double-exponential, needed a cooling off. That it was just a pause rather than a sharp knife-down perhaps says something about how solid their rally is.

Indeed. It's possible, even somewhat likely, that Second Market soaked up most of the available coins weeks ago and we're now feeling the coin drought. Add that to the China tinderbox and BOOM. I expect continued rally, I just want to preemptively warn people that corrections are normal and healthy, sky isn't falling if the price dives one day, etc.

I hope your fiat gets there in time. I'm guessing 70% chance we never see $150 ever again. You might have to buy in twice as high. Matters not, either way your ticket to this ride is secured.

It might go to $150 briefly. So what? It's going much higher. Besides $150 was a great price a few short weeks ago. Have some perspective. Pull up a 4-year log chart and a glass of your favorite libation, and chill out. These price moves are peasly compared to what's coming.

PSA: A correction now, even a big temporary sell-off, would be totally normal.

That's not saying we'll get one, but don't panic if it happens. The "DON'T PANIC" posts during a mini-crash may fall on deaf ears because they look desperate. They aren't; it is a fact that markets don't move in straight lines. Don't be a weak hand. Besides being generally cowardly, it is very expensive to your financial wellbeing.

We now return to our regularly scheduled rally

You wouldn't. "You never go full retard."

Oh, no - not necessarily. Though people get stronger handwise as they learn more about Bitcoin, and former weak hands that panicked and lost their ticket probably often get stronger and wait for a buying op.

I don't know how it feels to slam dunk your bitcoins into the trash at $2 in late 2011, or $50 in April, or $70 on the day of the SR shutdown. But it must feel pretty bad and cause some soul-searching (about Bitcoin) in many cases.

It's just basic reasoning: people who didn't budge during a major crash are prima facie more likely to hold steady than those that freaked out. Strong hands generally are strong hands because they are deep-down confidet in Bitcoin's future, and weak hands are not.

The new *group of* holders, yes, as - since the last crash was particularly recent - a particularly large proportion of those holders have shown they are strong hands because they just weathered a crash. The x-factor is how many of the newly added holders are strong hands. Note that the requirement includes that they continue holding for a significant amount of time, like a few months. Put another way, what looked like pie-in-the-sky prices in January 2013 now have built a foundation from which to grow.

What theory?