Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant? I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.
It probably isn't the major cause behind the rally. But it is a significant factor. $24 million in swaps is 37,000 bitcoins (or possibly more if the cost basis for the long positions is below the market price which it probably is). And in the past, the number of USD swaps has grown faster than the Bitcoin price (eg. 2013) which means that it may continue to be a source of demand. By contrast, the Bitcoin Investment Trust with their 105k bitcoins looks like they've really slowed down their purchases (of course that could change). Offline whales might be accumulating large blocks, but we don't have data on that. If we did - I'd be very happy to see it! BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin. You are aware that the price of BTC is massively higher now than it was last year. USD volume is the only relevant metric. No it is not. When you are trading it is the volume of the base currency that is relevant and not the volume of the quote currency. |
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Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant? I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.
It probably isn't the major cause behind the rally. But it is a significant factor. $24 million in swaps is 37,000 bitcoins (or possibly more if the cost basis for the long positions is below the market price which it probably is). And in the past, the number of USD swaps has grown faster than the Bitcoin price (eg. 2013) which means that it may continue to be a source of demand. By contrast, the Bitcoin Investment Trust with their 105k bitcoins looks like they've really slowed down their purchases (of course that could change). Offline whales might be accumulating large blocks, but we don't have data on that. If we did - I'd be very happy to see it! BTC used to do 100-200K per day of volume on mtgox. The tiny volume of 10-20K per day on bitstamp during rally is pathetic and nothing in comparison to previous volume levels. Even huobi (whatever portion is real), stamp, and btce combined are nothing compared to previous combined volume levels. A $10M increase in swaps is nothing compared to an $8Bn market cap. Obvious some other force is moving the market. If I was using Stamp's volume in my technical analysis, I would not even be here - I would have abandoned bitcoin. |
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Why is all this bitfinex swap stuff relevant? I thought the whole theory behind the current rally was that it was neither bitstamp nor huobi that was leading the rally but that it was due to offline whales accumulate huge blocks and due to commercial usage, because there is clearly not enough volume on exchanges to be supporting the rally.
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No, bitcoin is not a suitable measure of wealth (and neither is fiat), but maybe the amount of wheat, oil, or real estate that you can buy.
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'some coins' was about 50,000BTC back then
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Most people don't own gold either and even the fiat savings of the average person is pathetically low - most are in debt.
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TERA, very interesting. So it means that currently resistance is $678 and support $566? I think we also have a smaller resistance now at ~$650, which coincides with sMA 200 and the neckline from recent triple top.
If you draw the bottom at $340, then you have support at $530 and resistance at $650. If you draw the bottom at $380, then you have support at $560 and resistance at $675. I'm not sure which one to use. |
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If there's this much panic and conspiracy theorization over the tiny drop from $680 to $630, I wonder what will happen in here when it retraces further to $560, which will still be a perfectly normal retracement in my eyes?
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Hey I adjusted my fib lines so that the bottom is $380 instead of $340 since $380 was breached only once and very briefly. Now it makes more sense.   |
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i think the fundamental question here is bitcoin going to be a myspace/facebook thing
Yes Bitcoin will be Myspace and something else will be Facebook... |
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I think the bigger bitcoin gets, the more challenge it will have from governemnts. I remember back at $100 the bulls were telling us not to worry about governments at all because bitcoin was currently tiny and was too small to even provoke their interest. Then $1,000 must have been the critical level where this safety popped and finally some governments started taking action against bitcoin. During the next bubble when bitcoin breaks $1,000 and goes to higher levels, we'll probably see even more objection from more governments. Eventually bitcoin could get so big where it actually causes currencies to decline rather than just the fear that they will decline and then we could see a whole new wave of action.
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It's not the first time blockchain.info has been down for a prolonged period. While they have awesome UI and reports, it seems like their stability and disaster recovery is letting them down. Not a good sign for the bitcoin ecosystem if the flagship website can't be relied upon especially in the era of distributed cloud based systems.
To be fair there are plenty of block explorers and blockchain.info isn't even my favorite one, its hardly not a good sign for the ecosystem of Bitcoin if a website goes down, don't be so dramatic. Blockchain.info is a block explorer and a bitcoin wallet with more than 1.5 million users. So!? You control the private keys, no ? If your relying on third party services to the point where an hour or so of down time has you running in circles and panicking then your doing it wrong. Even worse if your worried they're stealing your funds then why on earth use it in the first place. I just don't get this, Bitcoin has given us a way to not have to trust third parties and the first thing everyone wants to do is start giving their coins to third parties, when will people learn. its about convenience. not having to store dozen gigs of blockchain on your ssd. or keeping it in sync over a tiny limited data plan There are light clients like Electrum which don't need to download the blockchain. While a server is trusted to provide the blockchain, it is not trusted for anything else or to store your private key and you retain control over your key and your coins. You can also use a paper wallet and use something like a copy of brainwallet.org to push out the transactions |
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Amusing all the people panicking over a retracement and asking about 'fundamental reason' etc. The RSI was so high a blind man could have seen it.
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Was there any fundamental reason why Bitcoin crashed today from $680 to $620-630?
Fundamental reason? What?? lol. Have you ever heard of a retracement, and volatility? IT's probably going even lower than 620, perhaps to 550, but it's still just a retracement with no fundamental reason. The whole quick jump from 440 to 680 needs to be retraced and a retracement of 50% of a move is typical in bitcoin. |
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 BF What is the purpose of styling the message like this? |
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There wasn't really a 10% drop. It was the spike from 650 to 680 which was an abnormality. This was a very brief spike over a major fib line which was rejected and there was a very small actual amount of volume done inbetween 650 and 680.
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I'm kind of expecting something like this assuming the uptrend holds.  |
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It's not so much the buying pressure causing the rally, but rather the lack of selling pressure. You can see this by looking at the volume which is very low. This could mean one two things.
1. Decentralization of exchanges, growth of the marketplace, and increased use of bitcoin as a currency which doesn't need to be converted into fiat.
2. Pump.
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