The thing to watch is the end of the previous difficulty period. If it was up the current trend then it tends to weight the estimates too high, if it was down then it tends to weight them too low. The last one was high so my guess is that we'll see the difficulty dip back down again.
Bitcoinwisdom extrapolates from a trend. Thats useful if there is a trend, but it exaggerates random fluctuations, as it will 'expect' a recent spike or drop to continue. Thats why its probably predicting too high difficulty now. blockexplorer just calculates average hashrate and bases its prediction on that, which is useful if there is no trend, but only random fluctuations. Historically there is of course a very strong upwards trend which made blockexplorer consistently underestimate the next adjustment. But right now, I dont see a distinct trend, and I think it may be more accurate than bitcoinwisdom: http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate -> 39456072471 (-2.1%) Mind you, I do hope Im wrong since I have a small friendly bet on difficulty going up this period, but I would bet Im gonna lose that bet :p. |
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I have no interest in digging much deeper than I have: try to separate the obvious ponzi scams from companies that actually mine and that subject themselves to legal action. If you read my disclaimer, you'll see that what I mean with "legit" is not exactly the same as a SEC stamp of approval, but that it shows the company in question has given enough evidence to reasonablly assume its more than just a quick money grab.
Doing anything beyond that would require a mandate that I simply do not have.
Let me put it this way; any company I listed there as "legit", I would be taking bets they will not just run off with customer funds in the next 6 or 12 month. Im quite willing to take the opposing bet for any company I listed as "ponzi". Im not taking bets either way for the ones inbetween.
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If I can agree that coinfire is exaggerating their claims can you agree their are some serious concerns with GAWminers that need to be addressed before anyone spends money on their cloud mining or ICO?
To be honest, Ive not been following the debate at all. Its only when I started compiling my cloudmining ponzi score list that I even looked in to GAW. Based on criteria I set forth there, yes there certainly are red flags. And I wouldnt be one bit surprised if there are many more, but I would like to get facts to base my opinion on, not "exaggerations" (which I think is too mild a term for what coinfire did if they had no source other than whats been posted here). |
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Even if he said "we're working with the largest retailers" , that is not at all the same as "[he] claimed publicly that the company and he personally have sealed up partnerships and deals with Target, Amazon, and Walmart about the coin and the company". Not even remotely.
Its not just the sealing up part, look at the "coin" part which coinfire made a huge deal of disproving. He never even suggested Amazon or Target was about to accept their coin as payment, regardless of what word you substitute for "unintelligible".
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i doubt that but even when you are right, we have 5 other lies/scams  What is it you doubt? I quoted coinfire, and Im still looking for a source of their claims. You presented a cryptocoinsnews article, one that coinfire also links, but that doesnt even mention any of these companies, and a youtube clip with transcript, where all he says is that they are working towards getting xyz in those shops as long term stategy. Thats is not at all the same as claiming he (personally) already has sealed up partnerships with these companies, as coinfire wrote. As for the 5 other lies, post them and lets scrutinize them the same way. I will not for one second believe anything GAW says just because they say it, but unlike you apparently, I like to use the same scrutiny to claims being made against them. |
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"I will say on a general level, we're working on getting Hashlets into mainstream stores, it won't be long before you'll walk into Target and see hashlets, it won't be long before you go on walmart.com, we're *unintelligible* with the largest etailers in the country, that's our main strategy.. is to actually get em in mainstream stores."
I hate to be defending GAW, but the above statement is not the same as what coinfire wrote: "Recently the CEO of GAW Miners claimed publicly that the company and he personally have sealed up partnerships and deals with Target, Amazon, and Walmart about the coin and the company."
They link that to that same cryptocoinsnews article that doesnt even mention any of these companies, and clearly in the conference there is no mention of sealed deals. |
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Did you download the tool? From the tool menu, pick Escrow Tools.
I did, then saw it was a windows .exe  (running linux here) But judging by the text you pasted, its exactly what I was looking for, thx! Now all we need is a mutually trusted escrow agent that can use this. |
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Thats certainly neat if you dont want to use a third party, but Im not entirely sure how to use in such a way that, should I or my counterparty vanish, that the escrow agent is able to unlock the funds (in combination with one/winning party as ideally, the escrow wont be able to access the funds by himself). SO I want a "2 out of 3 signatures" solution. |
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The article you linked contains neither the words Target, Amazon, nor Walmart... |
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Who is supplying the cloud miners?
No oneWell, aside from pizza deliveries and the like. |
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not everyone has the tens of millions necessary to start a cloud mining business Then dont, and dont pretend that you did. make it profitable, transparent, compliant and user friendly all at the same time.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but none of the existing cloud mining services has all these qualities at the same time.
You are wrong, if you ignore the nonsensical criteria like 'profitable'. From a credibility pov, from their inception at least cryptx, cex.io, AMhash, Kncloud and Hashnest fulfilled all or nearly all my criteria. Yes, they had serious funding, because thats the only way you can start a competitive cloud mining operation. The big, established miners suffer from a severe lack of profitability for the end users. Generally the legitimate players cant offer anything like the low prices the ponzi's do, because they actually have hardware to write off, they actually have electricity costs and overhead costs. That is why they tend to be (considerably) more expensive. Ponzi's like yours that just pretend to have hashrate can sell at any arbitrary price, its just the lower the price, the quicker it will collapse. One could go as far as saying that they wouldn't even need to plug in their machines or even own any machines, as clients barely break-even on their purchase, over periods exceeding 6-8 months. Where exactly is the fairness in that? The fairness lies in the fact that in 6-8 months, they will not have run away with their customer funds. You will. |
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Hey Puppet, have you seen this?
Yeah, there are a bazillion such sites. Id rather you not link them as all of them (that Ive seen) are just a way to spam their referral links. You can safely assume their rating is based on referral link revenue instead of anything else. I mean, 5 stars to cryptomine? Riiight. |
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bitcoincloudservice is a member of bitcoin foundation how could you mentioned it as a ponzi
You think the bitcoin foundation does any kind of vetting of its silver members? I costs you $1000 and you get to call yourself a member. Thats it. BTW, MtGox was a Gold (platinum?) member of the foundation and its CEO was on the board as well as a founding member. IIRC Bitcoin-trader.biz was a member and sponsor of their events as well Yeah, that really helped. |
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The majority of "cloud mining" companies dont mine a satoshi, they are just ponzi's.
Do you have any proof? Or you just saying..? If you followed the link I provided, you wouldnt need to ask that question. A question which, BTW, is as pointless as asking "can you prove unicorns dont exist?". |
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Please let me make sure I understand you. Are you saying that just because you use Linux, your Bitcoin are positively secure?
Linux alone isnt enough obviously, but using windows makes your PC positively insecure. |
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It was supposed to be 2X estimated payouts for the next year.
I want simple double or nothing bet, straight out , not confused with payouts, maybe we should do .5 so that way would be winner take the bitcoin. That sounds like fun don't it? Yes I'm serious about this, So puppet what do you say , can we do this? Anya I cant seem to find a way to do this bet using multisig (with escrow agent for mediation only). So I propose a different solution; I create a bet on http://bitbet.us/I'll keep the bet open for a few weeks (tops, because I suspect pbmining may be getting really close to collapse) and resolution in 6 month instead of 12. Anyone would be able to bet either side, so I cant guarantee you'll make even odds. I suspect you will do much better than that should you win, but thats just my guess. Let me know if that works for you. |
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I keep looking over claims and sometimes proof, posative and negative, about the validity of GAW and can not seem to draw a definitive conclusion. However, I've been here long enough to see that where there is smoke there is usually fire, and not the sporadic, easily refuted, measly little puffs of smoke raised by every other troll in here who are guaranteed to attack every single offering and new coin no matter what, NO! I mean prolonged huge plumes of thick black smoke coming from every sub and let out by known trusted bitcointalk users with blatant smoking guns lying all over the place... that is what GAW looks like.
Maybe I'm wrong and I will have to bear the unthinkable shame of having a few 12 yr old basement dwelling trolls to call me a poopy-head etc. but who cares? Type "GAW" into the search bar up in the top right of this page...you will not like what you see.
Be safe, not sorry. Sit back and watch GAW, but do not invest. That is what I am doing. The potential for profit is tiny, the potential for total loss is so big I cant see around it.
My thoughts exactly. Its clear they have some kind of operation going, its equally clear they are making lots of claims that are highly dubious if not flatout untrue. Its impossible to me to judge how far the deception goes, which is reason enough never to invest in it. |
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I think cloud mining defiantly belongs somewhere in the mining section as cloud mining is a way people can mine bitcoin. The majority of "cloud mining" companies dont mine a satoshi, they are just ponzi's. The fact that most cloud mining services only allow users to mine via their own pool You wish. Have a look at the list Ive been compiling:
Sorry, misread. Of course the reason most of them dont let you select a pool is because they dont have the hashrate and so its not mining. They pay out BTC but its just like the previous generation of "arbtitrage' scams. Here is a list: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=860400.0 |
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Well, they can do this of course. If a company rented a hash power for x weeks, and claim that they own it, this is a straight scam. A ponzi is straight scam too. Hence me calling these distinctions semantics. In the end it doesnt really matter if the scammer spends coins on sig campaigns, making elaborate 3D renders (not that Im quite convinced yet this to be the case for whoever it was) or temporarily renting hashrate. To prevent this type of scam, we would need a proper audit, which requires a proper law enforcement, which "We, The Bitcoiners", hate a lot. So, this is why we are here. Running a scam that complies with all my criteria is not easy.I wouldnt say its impossible, but scammers are not likely to bother, especially not as long as there is so much money to be made by copy/pasting the current crop of transparent scams that comply with virtually none of my criteria. |
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1) No public mining address Check 2) No endorsement from any asic vendor Check 3) No relevant pictures of their hardware and datacenter Check 4) Open ended IPO Check 5) Referral programs and social networking Check 6) Anonymous operators Check (a UK company registered on the address of a mail forwarding company shared by a half dozen HYIP schemes and some photo's and names that have no history whatsoever do not count) 7) No exit strategy Check Added to my cloudmining 101 threadPonzi assessment: 7/7 |
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