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981  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes on: August 25, 2023, 01:59:08 PM
-snip

A casino is like a company where many eyes are watching it. But of the many watching eyes, there must be eyes that only look for weaknesses in a system, and they want to use the system for their benefit. Otherwise, we would not have heard of any leaks within the company in much of the news. But it's okay if you think of it as something ridiculous Grin
for me, this is not ridiculous, but it is a fact that sometimes big companies or well established online casinos still have leaks in any way, even the system in it, because not everyone can be trusted, even a team that is highly trusted, one day if you experience pressure for something, they will definitely do something. breaking the rules. probably not leak the system but will be used personally to get bigger profits as we talked about here before and could have been used to create AI to benefit from the leak.

exactly
even with thir parties like those companies that handle kyc for big ones
some say that your data is deleted afterwards but there's no real way to know.

creating an AI to benefit of leeks really depends on the leek, sounds a bit more like fiction than reality at this moment, how would it possibly work?
982  Local / Português (Portuguese) / Re: Token como ativo financeiro ou como uma fração de um projeto? on: August 25, 2023, 01:48:49 PM
Na sequencia do debate que estamos a ter neste tópico, sugeria em continuar o debate neste tópico.

Para vocês um token é um ativo financeiro ou uma fração de um projeto?

Eu até era para responder a um post e depois até me esqueci. Um onde referias exactamente isso dos activos financeiros. Na minha óptica, o que move esta malta é pura e simplesmente a ganancia de ganhar muito em pouco tempo. Na maioria das vezes estes projectos têm apenas uma coisa em vista. Lucro rápido, nada mais. Não me venham com tretas que é o projecto, a ideia, etc etc etc. Se asim fosse, tínhamos mais "Bitcoins".

Quando meia dúzia de garotos se resolvem juntar, programar um token na Shitereum, arranjar um marketing da tanga e convencer patos a investir naquilo, isto é pura especulação. "Vamos ver se esta merda corre bem". Muitas vezes corre. Aquilo sobe 5000%, mas e depois? Isto nunca é sustentável. E quanto maior é a subida, maior é a queda!

Até pode haver projectos cujas ideias são interessantes, mas o que move estes projectos é sempre a parte financeira e a expectativa de lucro! Eu sei, que nem podia ser de outra forma, mas é completamente desmedido. Não se pode querer criar uma empresa e ganhar tudo no primeiro ano. Por isso é que Bitcoin é uma maratona, não é uma sprint race!

cara, se vc aposta tanto no fato de que a ethereum vai falhar pq não coloca seu dinheiro onde sua boca está e faz um short? assim multiplica seus bitcoins com a queda dela...

Lol e  até lá eles riam-se com o meu dinheiro. E não só. O tempo que estou à espera que ETH caia, estou a perder Bitcoin e a sua valorização. Portanto, obrigado, mas não, obrigado.

Ganho mais em acumular Bitcoin que a enterrar dinheiro na Shitereum e ainda por cima ter que esperar...

o que não deve faltar por aí são CEX que permitem que você coloque seu BTC como colateral e faça um short
se não me engano a própria binance permite isso
assim você manteria seus BTC e ainda ganharia caso o preço da eth realmente caia como você tanto deseja.
você não tá esperando o BTC valorizar? então, aí vai continuar na espera do BTC valorizar e ainda ganhar mais com a queda da ETH que vc tanto odeia.  Roll Eyes

Isso seria skin in the game de verdade
dá substância pro seu discurso. Alinha seu discurso com sua ação.

O meu discurso está alinhado. Não enterro dinheiro em shitcoins, nem para ganhar mais Bitcoin. Não posso ser mais consistente que isto. Não acredito em shitcoins e portanto nem para ganhar dinheiro com elas quero arriscar o que quer que seja. O que "ganho" com a valorização de Bitcoin, chega! E para além disso poupa-me o stress de andar sempre a ver gráficos, até porque não tenho tempo para isso!
E outra correcção que quero fazer, eu não odeio uma shitcoin mais que outra. Simplesmente não acredito em nenhuma em igual medida! Nem mais nem menos. Acredito 0 em todas!

esse tipo de discurso me lembra os terraplanistas, por mais que menos pior
é muita confiança e fé que você está certo de sua opinião, pouca dúvida...

Se você tem certeza de algo (ex: ETH vai para zero ao longo do tempo) e existe um instrumento financeiro para você lucrar em cima disso, vejo pouca razão para não apostar pelo menos uma parte pequena do seu capital nisso.
No fim eu tenho essa sensação várias vezes de que "talk is cheap", as palavras são vazias e é muito mais importante observar as ações.

paro de alfinetar por aqui, acho que a abertura de mente e aceitação do fato que é impossível estarmos certos em 100% das nossas opiniões nos leva mais longe.
Um pouco mais de dúvida e menos certeza.
Cheesy

abraços
Nada pessoal, acho que a quantidade de certeza e o tom bélico de alguns dos seus posts (hoje em dia um pouco menos) me disparam uns gatilhos
vou trabalhar isso
983  Economy / Gambling / Re: Duelbits.com | Casino & Sportsbook | VIP | Instant withdrawals!|ARGENTINA & AVFC on: August 25, 2023, 01:32:40 PM
If I ever get a ban on any casino, I will simply just stop playing there, no matter how used I've gotten to the casino, there are several other casinos around, I will just pick another, and I am very sure that I will also get used to that new casino after playing there for one week or less.

There are thousands of casinos in the crypto space, and perhaps hundreds of them are reputable. Sure, it's easy for you to find a casino. However, what if you get banned? What if the casino freezes your funds? I think you should also limit your exposure to a certain casino. Just put an amount that you are willing to let go in case things go bad.

It's still important to be aware of the possible consequences once we break the rules so we can easily move on, and go with our 2nd option.

managing total risk per platform is definitely a smart strategy
if you care about privacy too them opting for casinos without kyc is a good ideia though you probably won't find many or will find more with lower volume than the big ones.
what are other strategies you usually use?
If you are getting banned without any reason then casino is not legit at all and should not gamble over there with small amounts also but we should also keep in mind that we don't violate the terms at any cost that could lead to the ban.

you're right
but who checks terms of use nowadays?
some are days long to read, you could try using AI to get a resume of weird bits but even like that... idk

probably managing risk by not putting a huge amount of your net worth inside one platform and checking comments of other users in social media is a good way to go
984  Economy / Gambling / Re: Roobet.com | Crypto’s Fastest Growing Casino 🦘 on: August 25, 2023, 01:21:17 PM
This strategy is too risky and if you think to beat the house, you should not rely on this strategy.

The only strategy that can beat the house is to quit while still winning profits.  This way the house can't have the chance to recover the winnings of the player.  And best if the player withdraws it and use it elsewhere worthy.
A strategy that most of us can't follow due to the eagerness to win more. Usually if we're playing and already in profit, we tend to continue for wanting more. There are gamblers who can control themselves and wise enough to withdraw their winnings. But many gamblers are unable to do so.

Anyway, whatever strategy you use when you play, if it can increase your chance to win then do it, otherwise, quit and refrain from playing to avoid losing more.
Nebr forget LUCK , this must be our friend to succeed in gambling , imagine your money and capital is too high but luck never seats with you,
then for sure you'll lose everything .
but onme thing that we must be thankful in roobet? is the bonuses and rakeback , and also their fund giving in contests

you are right
luck is a tricky goddess, sometimes she smiles at us and sometimes she doesn't
have you heard about the 4 kinds of luck? definitely an interesting reading material

I find it really interesting how luck and hope play out in casino's businness models
I believe that they do not affect the casino business in any way.  The thing is that both hope and luck are characteristics of the game of an individual player, and since there are many players, hope and luck naturally cannot be simultaneously for all or even for most of the players.  In the ideal case, half of the players can be lucky at the same time; on the contrary, failure is observed in the opposite half of the players.  But it is worth adding a third side.  Actually, the casino itself, which, roughly speaking, always has luck.  It's just that atherwise the casino cannot exist and make a profit for its leaders.  It is obvious. 
So it turns out that thee are always more players in a state of failure than lucky players. 
But, I repeat, the business model of the casino, as it seems to me, is not affected by such personal and purely individual streaks of luck, success, or, accordingly, bad luck and losses.

not talking about the streaks but about the emotions, if nobody thinks they have a chance to win (hope) they won't bet
but I know lucky players won't make the casino edge go away, of course.
the house always wins in the end.
985  Local / Português (Portuguese) / Re: [SORTEIO] 0.00064 BTC por um novo tópico on: August 24, 2023, 11:58:10 PM
Boa noite pessoal
seguem mais alguns tópicos

Give me all the tickets, gracias.

Existe alguma fonte que faz o tracking da presença de marcas na web 3?
O bearish case para o bitcoin
As democracias sobreviverão ao avanço de AI?
Principais sinais de fumaça para identificar um golpe

+entrada https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5463732.new#new
+entrada https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5464150.new#new
+entrada https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5464190.new#new
+entrada https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5464273.new#new


dessa vez acumulei alguns como aprendi com a @Disruptivas


Tem que aprender com a mestre mesmo Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

kkkkk

hahahahaha a diferença é que agora a sorte está do meu lado
 Cool
vou ganhar esse  Tongue

vc já acumula quantas vitórias Disruptivas?
podiamos criar um ranking hahahah
acho que só ganhei um ou dois.
uma vez teve um vale do ifood que acabou virando sushi, isso foi legal
986  Local / Português (Portuguese) / Re: O melhor gráfico para saber o timing de topos e fundos no BTC on: August 24, 2023, 11:51:13 PM
Apesar de ser interessante do ponto de vista da criatividade e de mostrar dados de forma completamente inovadora, eu acho que é só complicar! Só para uma pessoa se ambientar aos dados usados, pensar no que significam e como podemos extrair info útil de lá, quase que perco a vontade de tentar perceber estes gráficos!

Para mim, os gráficos básicos de candles chegam e sobram para retirar a informação que preciso! Mas atenção, não tiro valor a estes gráficos. Pelo contrário, acho que são bastante criativos!

não entendi
não te parece útil saber em que época do ano, no futuro, o bitcoin fará um fundo ou uma ATH?

DCA por exemplo é uma estratégia útil para mitigar volatilidade e facilitar tomada de decisões mas sabemos que não é a estratégia mais lucrativa.
987  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes on: August 24, 2023, 11:41:09 PM
~
Let's be real, any hardcore gambler out there knows that house always has the edge in the long run. Talk about tens or hundreds of millions of bets, right? But hey, who's counting? Dive into the game, feeling the rush, and hope for the best

However, the AI twist is some next-level mojo! Though I'm skeptical about AI making casinos go broke, I'd be lying if I said I wasn’t a tiny bit envious of someone smart enough to use it to their advantage. Just imagine: a little digital buddy whispering in your ear, giving you the lowdown. But remember, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Game responsibly, folks

Let's just not forget that the house has the edge in the long run over all players combined. One particular player can lose everything to the house, not only the house edge, all his money. Another can win 1,000x of his bets combined, even in the long run. The probability of that is low, but if you have billions of players thing with extremely low probability can happen to some of them.

AI might help some people to have an edge over the others, but not over the casino. And, of course, even betting with the help of AI, we should play responsibly, you are right.

good point
also take into account that some games you're playing against the house directly and others are more PvP with the house maintaining its edge
different styles

slots would be more only agaisnt the house, as an example
988  Local / Português (Portuguese) / Re: Guerra dos quotes on: August 24, 2023, 11:31:06 PM
Gostei do tópico, eu tenho uma página no Notion só com citações que considero muito inspiradora, deve ter umas 500. Eu acho surpreendente como algumas frases conseguem resumir coisas tão completas. Essa que tu colocou é uma boa. 
<...>

ooh, também tenho um assim no google docs?
o seu é aberto ou só pra vc?
quer trocar os links? hahhaha adoraria ler

curto muito quotes

vou deixar aqui meus dois favoritos da vida, que são do Lao-Tsé
tem vários que gosto mas esses são os mais presentes nos meus pensamentos:

"Se você não mudar de direção, pode ser que chegue exatamente aonde está indo"

"De um vem dois, e de dois três, mas de três, vem dez mil"

989  Economy / Gambling / Re: Duelbits.com | Casino & Sportsbook | VIP | Instant withdrawals!|ARGENTINA & AVFC on: August 24, 2023, 11:20:52 PM
If I ever get a ban on any casino, I will simply just stop playing there, no matter how used I've gotten to the casino, there are several other casinos around, I will just pick another, and I am very sure that I will also get used to that new casino after playing there for one week or less.

There are thousands of casinos in the crypto space, and perhaps hundreds of them are reputable. Sure, it's easy for you to find a casino. However, what if you get banned? What if the casino freezes your funds? I think you should also limit your exposure to a certain casino. Just put an amount that you are willing to let go in case things go bad.

It's still important to be aware of the possible consequences once we break the rules so we can easily move on, and go with our 2nd option.

managing total risk per platform is definitely a smart strategy
if you care about privacy too them opting for casinos without kyc is a good ideia though you probably won't find many or will find more with lower volume than the big ones.
what are other strategies you usually use?
990  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The madness of gambling addicts. on: August 23, 2023, 10:57:38 AM
~snip~
I totally agree
the hard part is that not all people have a network of emotional support and it's harder for some than others to open up and talk about their problems or to seek a therapist.
life has an interesting way to play with us sometimes.

That's true.

But also, at the end of the day, the change has to come from the inside. Yes, people can help you, and give you support, but if you don't want to change at the core, then you won't change.

The good thing about it is that even a lonely person still has an opportunity to change, even without any supporting network. It will probably be more difficult of course, but it's still possible.

yes, great point
if there's a person who doesn't want to be helped nobody will be able to help them in the end.

it's interesting to thing about these adaptative mechanisms that help us thrive in a challenging world (lol this could be a headline for some kind of animal planet doc)
sometimes I wonder what makes people change... insights? divine inspiration? changes in their neuro circuits or even neuro chemistry?
991  Economy / Gambling / Re: Duelbits.com | Casino & Sportsbook | VIP | Instant withdrawals!|ARGENTINA & AVFC on: August 23, 2023, 10:45:46 AM
That's why the free VPNs are free because you are the product. Unlike the ones that are paid, you really are paying for the service.
When you are using the free one you are just having some kind of assumptions that your IP is bumping but in reality it's just a waste of time and I think we are dragging this too much and we should focus more on duelbits 3.0 new designs and more promotions from them.

talking about duelbits 3.0
do we already have an estimated date for its launch?
did the team say anything else about what is coming or it's all mistery until now?
992  Local / Português (Portuguese) / Re: As democracias sobreviverão ao avanço de AI? on: August 23, 2023, 10:22:52 AM
Só esclarecendo algo pois talvez tenha me expressado mal
O ponto principal não é as AI dominarem o mundo

é o fato que será ainda mais fácil manipular eleições (semelhante ao escândalo da Cambridge Analytica) com a tecnologia Deep Fake, e que dificilmente um candidato que não domina essa tecnologia irá conseguir ganhar as próximas disputas (ele/ela ou sua equipe)

Daria para falarmos também sobre como consenso é muito melhor que democracia e delirarmos se é possível articular consenso em grandes comunidades (cof cof bitcoin, the network state e mais...) mas isso é papo para outro tópico.



a fake news da mamadeira de piroca foi uma extrapolação da realidade criada na campanha do bolsonaro que dizia que o PT estaria distribuindo mamadeiras de piroca para as crianças, caminhou junto com a fake news de que "o PT comunista" ia fazer com que as pessoas tivessem que entregar seus bebês para o estado.

Na própria wikipedia tem uma página sobre o assunto
https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mamadeira_de_piroca

beeeem diferente da história do kit gay.
993  Local / Português (Portuguese) / Principais sinais de fumaça para identificar um golpe on: August 23, 2023, 10:06:30 AM
Acho que esse pode ser um tópico útil principalmente para iniciantes.
Bora listar os principais sinais de fumaça para identificar golpes financeiros? (sejam em crypto ou fora desse mundo)

1. Promessa de retornos garantidos todo mês
Muitos dos golpes prometem um retorno de mais de 3% ao mês
Lembre que os melhores fundos da história não faziam mais de 50% ao ano em média (to exagerando, se não me engano é algo como 35% com consistência)

2. Obscuridade e mistério nas operações
Se a empresa (ou indíviduo) não compartilha seus métodos e histórico, desconfie!

3. urgência
Pressão para investir rápido, sem te dar tempo para pensar.

4. Observe o marketing e pesquise
A empresa tem um site? Tem cnpj aberto? Faz tudo às claras ou precisa se esconder e dar desculpas?
tudo isso conta

o que mais você adicionaria?
994  Economy / Gambling / Re: Roobet.com | Crypto’s Fastest Growing Casino 🦘 on: August 23, 2023, 09:52:14 AM
This strategy is too risky and if you think to beat the house, you should not rely on this strategy.

The only strategy that can beat the house is to quit while still winning profits.  This way the house can't have the chance to recover the winnings of the player.  And best if the player withdraws it and use it elsewhere worthy.
A strategy that most of us can't follow due to the eagerness to win more. Usually if we're playing and already in profit, we tend to continue for wanting more. There are gamblers who can control themselves and wise enough to withdraw their winnings. But many gamblers are unable to do so.

Anyway, whatever strategy you use when you play, if it can increase your chance to win then do it, otherwise, quit and refrain from playing to avoid losing more.
Nebr forget LUCK , this must be our friend to succeed in gambling , imagine your money and capital is too high but luck never seats with you,
then for sure you'll lose everything .
but onme thing that we must be thankful in roobet? is the bonuses and rakeback , and also their fund giving in contests

you are right
luck is a tricky goddess, sometimes she smiles at us and sometimes she doesn't
have you heard about the 4 kinds of luck? definitely an interesting reading material

I find it really interesting how luck and hope play out in casino's businness models
995  Local / Português (Portuguese) / As democracias sobreviverão ao avanço de AI? on: August 22, 2023, 03:30:20 PM
Tenho pensado que os dias da democracia estão contados e infelizmente acredito que em muitos lugares isso vai resultar em governos mais totalitários que os atuais.

O escândalo da Cambridge analytica só foi possível graças ao desenvolvimento dos algoritmos de web2, imagina agora com deep fakes...
As pessoas acreditavam num absurdo gigante como mamadeiras de piroca no Brasil, agora quando um de seus políticos favoritos aparecer num vídeo falando algo que não disse ou fazendo algo que não fez, será ainda mais fácil manipular a população.

uma coisa me parece certa:
só tem como um candidato ganhar uma eleição a partir de agora se dominar marketing com AIs e usar isso a seu favor.

não lembro se já falamos aqui mas fake news não se combatem com a verdade, e sim com pensamento crítico
acontece que o Brasil é um dos poucos países que teve uma diminuição de QI na última década, nosso forte por aqui não parece ser pensamento crítico.

no que acham que vai dar esse mingau todo?
996  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The madness of gambling addicts. on: August 22, 2023, 12:46:13 PM
~snip~
yes, I think the main problem is avoiding to see reality as it is
many people approach gambling as a way to make easy money or relying on it as income when in reality it should be entertainment.

if it's too hard for someone to stop gambling they should seek help.
The important thing is that they can open up by telling their problems to people close to them before going to a professional to get help. They need attention from other people close to them so that it is with the openness of gambling addicts that they can see that the people around them are still there for them and are always ready to help them. By doing this, the gambling addict can get help immediately, and if the people around them cannot help, they go to the professionals for more help.

I totally agree
the hard part is that not all people have a network of emotional support and it's harder for some than others to open up and talk about their problems or to seek a therapist.
life has an interesting way to play with us sometimes.
997  Economy / Gambling / Re: Duelbits.com | Casino & Sportsbook | VIP | Instant withdrawals!|ARGENTINA & AVFC on: August 22, 2023, 12:29:14 PM
Though we are lucky because our government isn't having us banned or restricted but for those who lives in restricted countries they have no choice but to use VPN but better to use those paid and not the free one.
But if you are using it from restricted region then you are directly violating the terms of casino as they have mentioned those regions so it's until then when you are not caught because casino wouldn't allow players to gamble using VPN in that case.
But it is what it is mate, that is the main reason why many are using VPN because they are from restricted country and  there is no way they can use the site if not from VPN , but that is also what the gambling site loves to happen , to let them deposit and use VPN while playing but when they need withdrawals , then Boom they are trapped.
this is what mostly happened as that players has no reason to take out His funds again
because of His violation and none can help him in any ways lol.

that's not the main reason for everyone
some use a VPN for privacy concerns, not to avoid restrictions for streaming or whatever
there are many different kinds of users around.

one more time: it's better to avoid vpns if you plan to gamble on KYC casinos.
998  Economy / Gambling / Re: Roobet.com | Crypto’s Fastest Growing Casino 🦘 on: August 22, 2023, 12:08:26 PM
you're right there's tons of skillfull people joining
maybe the best way is approaching the contest as something you do for fun, joining it in an outcome independent midset where it doesn't matter so much if you win or lose.

and using it as a way to practice your skill as well.
This is a contest so expect the participants to become more competitive, we’ve seen a lot of improvements from the art contest with Roobet and I’m confident that many are being more creative now. We might not know the criteria for judging but we know that Roobet is having a hard time to choose for the winners as many entries are really ok.

this is the point
I like the idea that we should keep raising the bar and level up, instead of putting the bar lower
but having a situation with the same winners every round is not ideal, of course (not saying this is what happens on roobet, as mentioned I didn't keep up with all of the last results)
999  Local / Português (Portuguese) / O bearish case para o bitcoin on: August 22, 2023, 11:58:00 AM
É muito comum que a gente se case com nossas opiniões, mas um exercício que gosto de fazer é tentar olhar o outro lado
O que pode fazer com que o bitcoin não dê certo, falhe, e se mantenha algo nichado e sem penetração no mundo como esperamos (pelo menos é o que eu espero, algo como >35% de adoção, bilhões de usuários assim como a internet)

levanto algumas ideias:

1. incapacidade de escalar.
Já vimos que a rede pode ficar congestionada em momentos de uso excessivo, e até mesmo projetos como os NFTs da ordinals já aumentaram muito as taxas no momento de maior hype, isso pode ser um vetor de ataque para governos ou agentes interessados em descredibilizar o bitcoin.

2. Incerteza regulatória / Ataques a partir do Estado
simples, o estado pode fechar o cerco, aumentar taxas, proibir, etc... o que traria incerteza para investidores maiores e também descredibilizaria o btc.
Contudo sabemos que a tecnologia não pode ser parada, esse é um grande ponto a favor do bitcoin.

3. UX complexa demais para o usuário comum
Uma coisa é aprender a usar um email, outra é aprender a fazer auto-custódia e evitar golpes de engenharia social.
Não conseguirmos simplificar a experiência de usuário seria um grande ponto contra, na minha opinião.

Essas são algumas ideias possíveis que podem retardar o desenvolvimento do btc e de crypto em geral
eu não acho que isso seria o suficiente para parar ou fazer com que o btc falhe mas quero ouvir de vocês.
o que acham?
1000  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: do you lose on slots? on: August 21, 2023, 02:03:02 PM
~ this is the point
the cemetery of losers is quite silent, you don't hear people sharing their losses so often, so it can give you the false illusion that winning is easy or that risks are lower than they actually are

But nevertheless, most gamblers realize that the probability of them winning is a bit less than losing. They just hope for good luck and that's why they play, not because they think winning is easy. No?

yes, I think they simply overestimate their luck and can't access probability well, mainly because it's hard for our minds to comprehend math

you have more probability of getting into a car accident driving 15 km to buy a lottery ticket than winning the lottery you are buying the ticket for.
crazy but simple math

If you mean, winning Jackpot, definitely. Same with slots: the chance of hitting something like 100,000x of your bet is much smaller than the chance of getting struck by lightning in your lifetime lifetime. Yet we hope we'll hit it despite the odds. And some people do hit it, and even not once during their lifetime. We hope to be among those people one day. And if that hope makes our life brighter, who can forbid us to have it?

oh, nobody can forbid us to have hope
sometimes I wonder how much good it makes us and how much bad it makes us like making us sticking to situations that won't change

though I think the final balance overall is more to the good than to the bad.

like The Shawshank Redemption teaches us.
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