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981  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Barry Silbert segwit agreement with >80% miner agreement. on: May 24, 2017, 01:28:15 AM
its all whistles in the wind and drama until we actually see some code to review that actually says it does 'what it say on the tin'

anyone can have a meeting. but meetings are meaningless.
code rules.. simple

Looks like code is coming soon.

Parties seem to be slowly converging closer towards possible consensus.

Luke Jr is working on this - https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2017-May/014399.html

Let us hope that everyone moulds it into the least shit option on the table.
982  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BREAKING: Bitcoin Miners Reach Scaling Agreement for SegWit Upgrade + 2MB Blocks on: May 24, 2017, 01:25:44 AM
its all whistles in the wind and drama until we actually see some code to review that actually says it does 'what it say on the tin'

anyone can have a meeting. but meetings are meaningless.
code rules.. simple

Looks like code is coming soon.

Parties seem to be slowly converging closer towards possible consensus.

Luke Jr is working on this - https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2017-May/014399.html

Let us hope that everyone moulds it into the least shit option on the table.
983  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will BTC be at $5,000? on: May 24, 2017, 12:33:26 AM
This is just my own simple assessment. Around August we should be at least $2500 and we will end 2017 at $3000 or even more. 2018 crypto market will continue to grow but I doubt we can reach $5000 right there. So maybe by 2019 we are at $5000. But who knows. Maybe by 2020 we are already at $10,000 per bitcoin as the supply is getting scarce.

The way parabolic bubbles work, we can very easily see testing of 4000 USD per bitcoin next month. The resistance there could be too much and cause significant correction (spanning 6+ months), but with that said 10 000 USD per bitcoin will be in game far sooner than 2020, sir  Wink

Unless, some alt replace bitcoin as virtual gold (wealth retention), which I find extremely unlike in medium term. Even ETH is unfit for that, perhaps monero in couple of years. But not now.

Testing 8-10k might be on the table as soon as next year unless something catastrophic happens.

I do not think any of the anonymous coins will ever threaten bitcoin because they are not transparent.

My argument for why transparency is critical is below.

Sustained increases in living conditions result only from gains in knowledge. Top-down control plays in role in the the organization needed to facilitate the emergence of new knowledge. Top-down control facilitates its own removal for new knowledge eventually circumvents and undermines the prior order allowing society to climb to higher energy systems. The new system is also one of top-down control but the knowledge gained allows for an overall relaxation of the imposed order increasing economic degrees-of-freedom.

The evolution of the social contract is a progressive climb to higher potential energy systems with increased degrees of freedom. The state of nature begat tribalism. Tribalism grew into despotism. Despotism advanced into monarchy. Monarchies were replaced by republics. It is likely that in the near future republics will be consumed by world government, and perhaps someday world government will evolve into decentralized government.

Each iteration has a common theme for each advance increases the number of individuals able to engage in cooperative activity while lowering the number of individuals able to defect. Each iteration increases the sustainable degrees of freedom the system can support.  


Cycles of Contention
Cycle #1  Cycle #2  Cycle #3  Cycle #4  Cycle #5  Cycle #6  
Mechanism of Control    Knowledge of Evil  Warlordism    Holy War  Usury  Universal Surveillance    Hedonism  
RulersThe Strong  Despots  God Kings/Monarchs    Capitalists    Oligarchs (NWO)  Decentralized Government    
Life of the Ruled"Nasty, Brutish, Short"    Slaves  Surfs  Debtors  Basic Income Recipients    Knowledge Workers  
Facilitated AdvanceKnowledge of Good    Commerce  Rule of Law  Growth  Transparency  Ascesis  



984  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 23, 2017, 11:18:44 PM
cashless societies, borderless currencies, blockchain apps for business, cheaper financial infrastructure

the big players are developing now

And perhaps as important as all that we are slowly learning how to govern by consensus rather then via demagoguery or 51% majority rule.
985  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 23, 2017, 11:07:34 PM

Not at all. Block size limit should be lowered not increased.

Actually, even though technically you are probably correct that bitcoin would be better with blocksize limit that is lower than 1mb - there is a certain advantage in just keeping the status quo - even if a lower blocksize limit would technically be the better design.

In the hypothetical 2MB hardfork to follow SegWit linked above

https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2017-May/014399.html

The author also argued that 1mb blocks are too big. Ignoring for a moment the issues with full blocks and transaction fees what is the concern with current blocksize?

986  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 23, 2017, 10:03:56 PM

Does that mean that this announcement is NOT as bullish as anticipated.  So what if all these folks agree, but if core does not agree, and they end up forking off with these terms, then we could have two forks.

Maybe this is not as bullish as we thought because core is not agreeing to lower the consensus threshold in this case, right?

You think that you can make an exception to lower the consensus threshold and then every time there is a dispute, there would be an attempt to use 80% as the new consensus threshold?  

I suppose ultimately if this is a softfork rather than a hardfork, then it is not as big of a deal to have a consensus threshold that is lower than 95%.

I view it as slightly bullish.
Parties seem to be slowly converging closer towards possible consensus.

From my admittedly layman and non-technical perspective the 95% threshold makes sense. However 83% of the hashing power is getting much closer to 95% then we have been in the past. Perhaps now further discussions and compromises need to be made to get the last 12% and bitcoin core on board. The major exchanges would probably all follow at that point. That would be extremely bullish.

987  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 23, 2017, 09:34:19 PM

Dunno. If the silly sausages had been there then they would've been able to voice those reservations and help draft a better agreement. A bonkers idea I know.

Its more of a proposal without bitcoin core and the major exchanges. It's a nice starting point but without near universal support it is just a setup for a split into Bitcoin Classic and Bitcoin Whatever. We would be better off with the status quo and high fees than a contentious split.

Consensus is consensus and is very hard by definition. I agree that it is concerning that major players appear to be unwilling sit down in person for discussions.
988  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 23, 2017, 09:19:50 PM


Sounds like bitcoin core developers have some reservations about this.

What are bitcoin core's concerns here? Is is a concern that once blocksize is increased once further centralizing block size increases will occur?
Or do they think that widespread consensus for SegWit + 2Mb is not achievable?

I have not really been following this debate with any depth so I am trying to get up to speed.
989  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 23, 2017, 02:23:57 PM

I have removed the rest of your message as it is based on a wrong premise. No, it was not a stop-loss order. I learned not to ever use stop-orders on Kraken as they simply don't work as intended (exactly as you are describing). I underatand stop loss orders are NOT on the order book until they get triggered and inserted (whenever that happens) in the order book. This has NOTHING to do with that.

It was LIMIT ORDERS, opened several days in advance, already on the order book that HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED YET THE PRICE HAS KEPT RISING ABOVE THEM.

When I say the trading engine/order book in Kraken is broken I really mean it. There is absolutely no technical explanation to this. The only doubt I have is WHO profited from it.


I don't even pay that much attention but I have heard multiple shady stories on this form about both Kraken and Bitfinex.

Personally I would never use either of them. Trying to make gains via leverage gambling is simply not worth the risk when you factor in the high probability of eventual catastrophic exchange failure.

I use Gemini. Slight premium there that is well worth paying for the added safety.
990  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Miners are obviously scared of UASF setting a precedent on: May 23, 2017, 12:59:06 AM
Integrative Negotiations - Everybody Wins Something (usually)
http://www.negotiations.com/articles/negotiation-types/

Quote
The word integrative means to join several parts into a whole. Conceptually, this implies some cooperation, or a joining of forces to achieve something together. Usually involves a higher degree of trust and a forming of a relationship. Both parties want to walk away feeling they've achieved something which has value by getting what each wants. Ideally, it is a twofold process.

In the real world of business, the results often tilt in favour of one party over the other because, it's unlikely that both parties will come to the table at even strength, when they begin the talks.

Nonetheless, there are many advantages to be gained by both parties, when they take a cooperative approach to mutual problem solving. The process generally involves some form or combination of making value for value concessions, in conjunction with creative problem solving. Generally, this form of negotiation is looking down the road, to them forming a long term relationship to create mutual gain. It is often described as the win-win scenario.

Integrative Negotiation Basics

Multiple Issues - Integrative negotiations usually entails a multitude of issues to be negotiated, unlike distributive negotiations which generally revolve around the price, or a single issue. In integrative negotiations, each side wants to get something of value while trading something which has a lesser value.

Sharing - To fully understand each other's situation, both parties must realistically share as much information as they can to understand the other's interests. You can't solve a problem without knowing the parameters. Cooperation is essential.

Problem Solving - Find solutions to each other's problems. If you can offer something of lesser value which gives your counterpart something which they need, and this results in you realising your objective, then you have integrated your problems into a positive solution.

Bridge Building - More and more businesses are engaging in long term relationships. Relationships offer greater security.
991  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Miners are obviously scared of UASF setting a precedent on: May 23, 2017, 12:31:28 AM
Are you trying to say that SegWit + 2Mb increase will lead to a significant decline in nodes.

yes

If so I am interested your argument as to why.

more data needed for full node = less people running full nodes

Ok I follow you so far but there seems to be countervailing forces as well.

Right now nodes are run via altruism. That means only larger BTC holders will run one because the only reason to do so is to protect your investment by helping support the network.

I for example have finally accumulated a modest but large enough position in BTC over the last year or so that it makes since for me to start a node and I am looking into how to do so. Had BTC remained at $250 that probably would not be the case.

Will SegWit + 2Mb make it technically unfeasible to run a node from my home? If not I don't see the problem. As BTC grows in value the number of people who's holdings cross the node setup threshold will increase leading to more nodes as long as the overall resources demanded remain within the ability of the hobbyist.
992  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Miners are obviously scared of UASF setting a precedent on: May 22, 2017, 06:58:30 PM
I have yet to see anyone argue that combining SegWit with a 2mb block size increase is technically unsound. Just a lot of whining about who gets to be "in charge" of bitcoin as if anyone is in charge.

Bitcoin is a decentralized consensus mechanism if an idea works improves upon the status quo and is able to achieve wide consensus then it is a no brainer. People need to set aside entrenched emotions and look at the issue objectively.

I think SegWit + 2Mb is a good idea. Its not perfect but its good enough for now and has the potential to drag the vast majority of the bitcoin community into consensus (if reluctantly). The market seems to think so too looking at the price.

 

the price is the wrong metric to be looking at, look at the node count (i.e. the decentralisation metric)

and it's flat. deadlining, essentially. And that means that those getting into Bitcoin in the current buying spree don't get why it's valuable in the first place, and it's difficult to adequately explain why the 6500 Bitcoin nodes enforcing the consensus rules are so important.

But it's easy to demonstrate that you're clearly not interested in that, the price appears to be telling you all you need to know. You should be learning about why the Bitcoin Network is what makes it valuable, not making unbacked schoolyard-esque assertions with zero computer science to qualify them

Ok so you disagree with what I wrote above because why exactly? I am willing to listen if you have an actual argument to make. Nodes are flat because there is no economic incentive to run one other then altruism or a large position in BTC. Obviously nodes are important and more nodes = better.

Are you trying to say that SegWit + 2Mb increase will lead to a significant decline in nodes. If so I am interested your argument as to why.

Price increase is a metric of general investor enthusiasm that a compromise is possible that will maintain decentralization and allow for some incremental increase in bitcoin scaling.

I have yet to see anyone present a technical reason why SegWit + 2Mb will not accomplish that. However, I am not a bitcoin expert. If you are and can present such an argument the floor is yours.
993  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Miners are obviously scared of UASF setting a precedent on: May 22, 2017, 04:17:57 PM
The only thing that we can judge from an objective standpoint are his economic incentives, which are broadly to let Bitcoin scale as soon as he feels altcoins are becoming a threat.

Which is now. Everything is lining up to encourage compromise.

Huge spike up in price with the potential for more is the carrot.

Loss of BTC market cap dominance coupled with the insult that currently Etherium miners are making more money then BTC miners is the stick. There will not be a better time to reach a compromise.

I have yet to see anyone argue that combining SegWit with a 2mb block size increase is technically unsound. Just a lot of whining about who gets to be "in charge" of bitcoin as if anyone is in charge.

Bitcoin is a decentralized consensus mechanism if an idea works improves upon the status quo and is able to achieve wide consensus then it is a no brainer. People need to set aside entrenched emotions and look at the issue objectively.

I think SegWit + 2Mb is a good idea. Its not perfect but its good enough for now and has the potential to drag the vast majority of the bitcoin community into consensus (if reluctantly). The market seems to think so too looking at the price.

 
994  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BREAKING NEWS: SegWit by Sept - Buy BTC Now!!! on: May 22, 2017, 04:06:08 PM
Yes, segwit in september, but not via this bullshit compromise. UASF BIP148!

Bitcoin is a decentralized consensus mechanism.

This means compromise is required and the interest of all major parties must be satisfied to the degree needed to maintain that consensus.

Perhaps you would be more at home in ripple or etherium?
995  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BREAKING NEWS: SegWit by Sept - Buy BTC Now!!! on: May 22, 2017, 02:06:41 PM
it's a trap.


they want 2Mb before SegWit LOCK date.
Enforced period for Segwit is From August 2017 to November 2017.
https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0148.mediawiki


2Mb change occur on September 2017 (Segwit ENFORCED period can be desactivate because of the client switch).
really good trap.

Wow, that is a pretty crazy scenario. So Segwit will be activated but not locked in? What is the point of this? I dont get why they cant just be honest and do things properly.

The folks who want 2Mb don't trust the SegWit people not to stop a block size increase after SegWit is locked in.

Sounds understandable given the emotionalism on this issue. It would be very disruptive to activate SegWit and then deactivate it before LOCK. Seems unlikely the miners would do this. It seems far more likely that the SegWit folks would increase their opposition to a block size increase to 2 Mb once they already have what they want. I have seen people on this forum arguing for exactly this.

This is not complex it is a simple barter 2mb blocks in exchange for SegWit.
996  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Barry Silbert segwit agreement with >80% miner agreement. on: May 22, 2017, 01:57:36 PM
I think it's ok. First they activate SegWit. Then everyone will see that hardfork is redundant. But if some fools try to hard fork after SW they will end up with alt on their hands.


Yes this is exactly why the 2Mb folks want the block size increase after SegWit activation but before the lock.

So is it an attempt to stop the User activated fork getting traction ?

yes, because the period from august 2017 to november 2017 is the enforced period for Segwit ... not the LOCK period.
https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0148.mediawiki

so Segwit2Mb is a trap.
they want introduce the 2Mb before SegWit LOCK.

So the folks who want 2Mb don't trust the SegWit people not to break away after SegWit is locked and block a later block size increase?

Sounds understandable given the emotionalism on this issue. It would be very disruptive to activate SegWit and then deactivate it before LOCK. Seems unlikely the miners would do this. It seems far more likely that the SegWit folks would increase their opposition to a block size increase to 2 Mb once they already have what they want.

I am not understanding why this is not a reasonable roadmap forward.


This is an issue that is not going to have a "winner" it can only be solved by compromise and consensus.
997  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 22, 2017, 01:48:23 PM
So is it an attempt to stop the User activated fork getting traction ?

yes, because the period from august 2017 to november 2017 is the enforced period for Segwit ... not the LOCK period.
https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0148.mediawiki

so Segwit2Mb is a trap.
they want introduce the 2Mb before SegWit LOCK.

So the folks who want 2Mb don't trust the SegWit people not to break away after SegWit is locked and block a later block size increase?

Sounds understandable given the emotionalism on this issue. It would be very disruptive to activate SegWit and then deactivate it before LOCK. Seems unlikely the miners would do this. It seems far more likely that the SegWit folks would increase their opposition to a block size increase to 2 Mb once they already have what they want.

I am not understanding why this is not a reasonable roadmap forward.

Any block size increase is not a reasonable roadmap forward. It solves nothing! It just postpones the inevitable next block size increase - 4mb, 8mb, 16mb... until full centralization. Big blocktards will accept anything just to follow this roadmap.



If it also gets SegWit activated in the process then isn't it solving something?

Increasing the block size to 2Mb is not a slippery slope. It does not necessarily follow that we will then go to 4mb, 8mb, 16mb until full centralization.
998  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Barry Silbert segwit agreement with >80% miner agreement. on: May 22, 2017, 01:37:59 PM

Nothing's being forced until someone pulls the trigger.  If you set yourself down the path of activating UASF, you're pulling the trigger and forcing their hand.  If they set themselves down the path of activating a non-consensual hard fork, they're pulling the trigger and forcing your hand.  No one has pulled the trigger yet, so simmer down and start negotiating before things escalate any further.

What is it you don't understand? Devs set the rules.

Pffft.  Not even close.  Devs can only propose rules, consensus sets them.  Maybe you're thinking of Ripple or some other closed-source shitcoin based on centralised development and the users having no say in the code they choose to run.  Like so many people out there, you're willing to sacrifice the freedom of choice you've been given and surrender yourself to one centralised authority because you're scared of another one taking over.

The time of the cypherpunks was all too short, now only the cypherpussies remain, pleading for someone in power to trust with their hopes and dreams.  Pathetic.   Cry

+1

I strongly agree with the arguments above.

What all parties need to be looking at is not who is in "control" or what signal bit is used but does the solution

1) Allow for long term scaling
2) Maintain consensus

Everything else is just human ego.
999  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 22, 2017, 01:04:16 PM
So is it an attempt to stop the User activated fork getting traction ?

yes, because the period from august 2017 to november 2017 is the enforced period for Segwit ... not the LOCK period.
https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0148.mediawiki

so Segwit2Mb is a trap.
they want introduce the 2Mb before SegWit LOCK.

So the folks who want 2Mb don't trust the SegWit people not to break away after SegWit is locked and block a later block size increase?

Sounds understandable given the emotionalism on this issue. It would be very disruptive to activate SegWit and then deactivate it before LOCK. Seems unlikely the miners would do this. It seems far more likely that the SegWit folks would increase their opposition to a block size increase to 2 Mb once they already have what they want.

I am not understanding why this is not a reasonable roadmap forward.
1000  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / IRS Probe of Bitcoin Goes Too Far, GOP Warns on: May 22, 2017, 12:06:31 AM
http://fortune.com/2017/05/21/irs-bitcoin-congress/
Quote from: Joff John Roberts
A closely-watched fight between the Internal Revenue Service and a popular bitcoin exchange took a new twist last week, as senior Republicans in Congress sent a sharply-worded letter that suggests the tax agency is overstepping its powers.

The letter concerns an IRS investigation into possible tax evasion by customers who use Coinbase, a San Francisco-based company that many people use to buy digital currencies. As part of the investigation, which began last year, officials demanded that Coinbase turn over information for every one of its accounts.

Coinbase and its customers are currently in court trying to block the demand, saying it's too broad, and now the letter from the Republicans is likely to give them extra ammunition.
"The summons is estimated to affect 500,000 active Coinbase customers and would result in the production of millions of pages of associated records, many of which contain personally identifiable information ... Based on the information before us, this summons seems overly broad, extremely burdensome, and highly intrusive to a large population of individuals," says the letter, which is signed by Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Ut), Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, and by Vern Buchanan and Kevin Brady, who head the House Committee on Ways and Means. (my emphasis)
Get Data Sheet, Fortune’s technology newsletter.

The Republicans' concerns echo those of Coinbase and its customers, who argue the IRS does not need every single Coinbase account to carry out its audit, and that the investigation sweeps in people who have clearly done nothing wrong.

The tax agency, for its part, has pointed out that only 802 Coinbase users filed a tax form related to bitcoin in 2015, which suggests large number of people have failed to declare capital gains related to bitcoin.

The IRS investigation also comes at a time when the price of bitcoin has been on an incredible tear, climbing from $13 in 2013 to a new high of over $2,000 last week. Those who profited from the higher prices—either by selling bitcoin for dollars or exchanging it for merchandise—are required to pay taxes on the gain.

Some Coinbase customers, however, have not sold any bitcoin at all while many others hold only a minimal amount, raising questions of why the IRS demanded information about every account.
One theory, according to a lawyer who spoke with Fortune late last year, is that the IRS's sweeping demand is a negotiating tactic to make Coinbase more cooperative, and that the two sides will reach an agreement to allow the agency to inspect some, but not all, of the accounts.

The letter from the Republicans, which asks the IRS to explain its strategy for enforcing tax payments on digital currency by June 7, is likely to put pressure on the agency to come to a deal with Coinbase.
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