Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitcoinPsycho]

The way things are going right now, Bitcoin still doesn't have a strong enough momentum to break above $10k. We'll see in a week or 2 though. It may break aobe $10k or break down $6 below.

so the price may go up or down    ok I got it   thanks for that

[d_eddie]

...chained orders...

I have been experimenting with JJG (and jbrher)s chained order strategy on the BTC/ETH pair.

Perhaps I am being dense...but I am just not getting it.

It goes down, I am buying ETH every 0.001, ok fine, then it goes back up and I am selling ETH at the exact same prices...it looks like a total wash to me.

Did I miss something in the explanation?

You remove the "other side" order at the point you just filled, otherwise they will cancel out for sure.
Example: you have orders each 500$.
Sell at 8500 on the way up, but remove "buy at 8500 on the way down". Next you'll buy will be at $8000.
Same for the opposite direction, buy at $8000 on the way down, remove "sell at $8000 on the way up".

OK, so for the most part, they still cancel out, you are just harvesting at reversals.

If it runs straight up 4 sells, then straight down 4 buys you only have one "win"

You can tweak the amounts, and/or you can tweak the gaps (leaving two rather than one, for example).
You can realign the whole ladder by a few dollar points (under the $500 step size, in the example I made).

But right, if you don't do that, that's the way I understand it too - you harvest your latest top when you reach a bottom, and vice versa.

[El duderino_]

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST       

27/12/2017 bikerleszno
29/12/2018 cAPSLOCK 
30/12/2017 digithusiast
31/12/2017 Raja_MBZ
01/01/2018 elg
02/01/2018 wachtwoord
03/01/2018 JimboToronto
04/01/2018 d_eddie 
05/01/2018 BTCMILLIONAIRE
06/01/2018 HanvanBitcoin
07/01/2018 ghandi
08/01/2018 savetherainforrest
09/01/2018 explorer
10/01/2018 bicoinpsycho
11/01/2018 Bitcoinaire
12/01/2018 speedwheel
13/01/2018 undeadbitcoiner
14/01/2018 northypole
15/01/2018 ivomm
16/01/2018 maca068
17/01/2018 bitcoinvest
18/01/2018 last of the v8s
19/01/2018 mfort312
20/01/2018 1982dre
21/01/2018 flamast2
22/01/2018 RealMachasm
23/01/2018 willope
24/01/2018 kartala
25/01/2018 orpington
26/01/2018 rolling
27/01/2018 LFC_bitcoin
28/01/2018 jojo69
29/01/2018 CristiTCM
30/01/2018 rayX12
31/01/2018 realsteelboy
01/02/2018 twocorn
02/02/2018 mancroofer
03/02/2018 True Myth
04/02/2018 poolminor
05/02/2018 itod
06/02/2018 scheptan
07/02/2018 vapourminer
08/02/2018 alexeft
09/02/2018 siera
10/02/2018 AlcoHoDL
11/02/2018 Dunkelheit667
12/02/2018 yonton
13/02/2018 Wekkel
14/02/2018 Thekool1s
15/02/2018 starmman
16/02/2018 Globb0
17/02/2018 leveldkrypto
18/02/2018 olesh
19/02/2018 BitCoinBurger
20/02/2018 Paashaas
21/02/2018 flynn
22/02/2018 icygreen
23/02/2018 erisdiscordia
24/02/2018 phil_s
25/02/2018 sirazimuth
26/02/2018 Arriemoller
27/02/2018 yonton
28/02/2018 Muttley
01/03/2018 bones261
02/03/2018 heater
03/03/2018 soullyG
04/03/2018 InvoKing
05/03/2018 Notme
06/03/2018 sa_94
07/03/2018 NUFCrichard
08/03/2018 Imbatman
09/03/2018 Roombot
10/03/2018 STT
11/03/2018 badream
13/03/2018 erre
14/03/2018 julian071
15/03/2018 podyx
17/03/2018 fragout
18/03/2018 fabiorem
21/03/2018 dakustaking76
23/03/2018 nikauforest
31/03/2018 vroom
01/04/2018 somac.
02/04/2018 kurious
04/04/2018 fluidjax
05/04/2018 bitcoinbunny
08/04/2018 tyler1890
10/04/2018 ludwigvon
11/04/2018 hairymaclairy
16/04/2018 practicaldreamer
18/04/2018 free-bit.co.in
27/04/2018 drbrockoin
01/05/2018 sprinkles
02/06/2018 oblox
07/07/2018 IntroVert
03/08/2018 toxic2040
28/08/2018 bitserve
15/10/2018 Yefi
05/11/2018 mikenz
31/12/2018 melman2002
01/01/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
12/02/2019 FractalUniverse
21/04/2019 gentlemand
20/02/2020 romneymoney
18/12/2021 luckygenough56

UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK !!!

BITCOIN??   Just ———-> hodl that shit  keep innovating/ adapting/ learning/buying/ not panicing/decentralize /be enjoyed by and with iT/don’t questing it too much / don’t get triggerd @bearmarket/ do not fall in love with alts... and So on .........

And get quick @24777 Just for new future list games getting bored on This one

[ChinkyEyes]

Hmmmmmmm, NIST crypto document

https://csrc.nist.gov/CSRC/media/Publications/nistir/8202/draft/documents/nistir8202-draft.pdf

I smell picnic bear.

I do indeed work in standards as my day gig. However, ones of a very different nature. Without the standards I work on, none of this shit would even start working.

I thought you were too crypto rich to have a day job.

The picnic bear works because he "like it..".

hahahahahhaha


 

He works for the enemy, the USG.

In his spare time he volunteers for their asset, Ver, and the corresponding chicom asset, Wu.

Your assertion that I work for USG is simultaneously laughable on its face, and truly deserving of ridicule. It is quite apparent you are speaking of things of which you have zero knowledge, despite the fact that the open record in this very venue provides all required to see how truly laughable the assertion be.

What asset is the USG's? You mean the Federal Reserve Note? No. No volunteering on its behalf.

Oh you mean Ver is the USG's asset? First, I find the assertion that Ver be a USG asset ludicrous. You do realize he has at times been denied entry visa, right? Do you assert that as part of his 'plausible cover backstory'? Second, while our visions of the best means to free humanity from fiat slavery seem largely aligned, I certainly do not 'volunteer for Ver'.

And I suppose you mean that Wu is a chicom asset? I really have little direct evidence to say yea or nay here. Never met the man. Nonetheless, I might point out that Bitcoin Segwit is dominated by Wu in any sense that Bitcoin Cash is dominated by Wu. Further, I certainly do not 'volunteer for Wu'.

You should probably keep your vomitous crapulation to yourself. You are only serving to make yourself appear stupid.

Actually, Jbreher.  I had thought that Last of the V8 had no fucking basis at all for his shot in the dark last grasp at a USG govt assertion, so I totally shrugged off his claim.

However, now that you so vehemently defended various angles for why you are in "no way" affiliated with USG in any kind of way whatsoever, I am becoming more convinced that there has to be some kind of a USG connection there, somehow... someway.  New tentative theory has gotta be that picnic food eating bear is not really in the food stealing business, but instead part of dee gubmint.    and we better alert Torque to this new tentative theory, because surely he would be skillful at getting at the bottom of it...  A problem with Torque, though, is that he prefers to come up with his own theories   ..

as a history student I once did research/paper on the early history of institutionalized secret police in 19th century europe. parts of europe were fractioned in many small kingdoms, principalities and they all had developed secret police institutions. they sent out their agents to hunt the people who wanted democracy. to spy on them, to sniff on them, to create files about innocent folks. some/many of the agents became even agent provocateurs trying to infiltrate the networks of the democratic activists. there were so many of those agents that they sometimes outnumbered the real people at certain events. and that was just the start. those institutions have evolved since then. they had a chance to advance their infiltrating techniques and strategies for centuries!

I guess there are almost as many secret police institutions in the world as we have countries. big countries have several agencies anyway. (for example germany alone inhibits more than 30 undercover working agencies!) add to that the incredible number of OTHER government agencies that want to know stuff...  worldwide...
and how many important bitcoin forums are existing? a handful? some agencies monitor, some stir up, some collect, but get used to the fact that this forum is full of them.


edited

It's funny that you mention the possibility of government agencies on this forum. I told a friend of mine the other day I had become quite active on this forum over the past year. And he joked about what if big hedge fund managers are sitting in their big offices just posting and reading stuff on this forum. I never thought about it that way. But there is always a possibility that both of you are right. Since we do not know who people that post here. It could be a government agent, hedge fund manager, terrorist, James Dimon, the fat banker that has been posted quite a lot in this thread or illuminati lol

[d_eddie]

To be really good you just need to be better than the average trader. And for that you don't need to sell the exact top or buy the exact bottom. It's enough to stagger purchases and sales in proportions that depend on the probabilities of price increases/decreases by certain numbers. Finding the probabilities is the trick here, as well as averaging them out in a way that guarantees you a performance band in which your portfolio will fall with a given probability. Doing that requires an understanding of time series as well as the ability to process large amounts of data (beyond just the price charts) though.

Agreed, but why didn't we see the crash coming? If there was a pattern to predict that, not many here did.

Did you know after it went up towards 20k that within a month or so it would hit 6K?  I didn't.

That's exactly what I would like to be able to figure out - partially, tentatively, doubtfully, of course. In another post, kurious said something to the effect "Exactness is not possible, but getting as close to it as we can is a noble art." I'm quoting from memory, words might be off. Well, that's exactly what I hope to do, and I'm asking for help from several points of view. The advanced conspiration theorist, the technical analyst, the macroeconomist, the street-wise long time exchange user. I'm none of that yet, but honing my gut feeling skills seems a worthy endeavour.

That depends on how much time and effort you are willing to expend, or alternatively money if you'd prefer hiring people.

The most accurate solution will be a well-balanced combination of multiple approaches, and the balancing act is something that can always be improved upon with new data. It's also very much possible to create fresh data from what you already know, which is to some extent what technical analysis does.

If you're not looking into algorithmic trading then your best bet is a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. If you're looking into algorithmic trading, you'll find no upper ceiling no matter how many resources you throw at the problem.

If you're manually trading you may want to consider trading on different time scales simultaneously (minutes/hours/days/weeks/months), both for better hedging and for accelerated self-improvement. There are also altcoins that are "negatively" correlated to BTC/USD (e.g. they do the opposite of what BTC/USD does), which can be used fairly easily to increase your stashes during periods of extreme volatility on any time scale.

I'm no real trader, but I do have a small part of my holdings loose in the wild - mostly learning and making the occasional small profit. Got a few lessons already, at reasonable prices.

Thanks for the advice about multiple scales. The algorithmic thingy really tickles me, especially if it can be steered/tweaked while it runs. Can you suggest any good reference?

[jojo69]

You can tweak the amounts, and/or you can tweak the gaps (leaving two rather than one, for example).
You can realign the whole ladder by a few dollar points (under the $500 step size, in the example I made).

But right, if you don't do that, that's the way I understand it too - you harvest your latest top when you reach a bottom, and vice versa.

Thanks for helping me brainwrap that.

It seems to be more of a risk management strategy than anything.  Most of the transactions are cancelling out with zero risk while ensuring that you are right there on a reversal.

Your only real risk is that it runs off in a huge move that exhausts your supply of one side of the pair.


edit/  I just deleted a recently added sell order that would have prevented me from "getting in" if it goes up from here...

[starmman]

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST       

15/02/2018 starmman

Just a week to go before the price hits $24777 LOL

[El duderino_]

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST       

15/02/2018 starmman

Just a week to go before the price hits $24777 LOL

If that happens then send me all your merit and future smerit’s   

[goldkingcoiner]

Listen here. The thing about racists: Everyone is a racist.

Sometimes we need to put others down to make us feel good about ourselves. It is just desperate human nature of someone who does not like themself. From a psychological standpoint anyway.

If anything its just sad.

[JayJuanGee]

As to the particular case, I searched through jbreher's posts to find where he told us of his employment, but gave up because the deceitfulness was all too depressing.
Perhaps he'd honour us with the relevant quote alluded to in the part I underlined, and we can take it from there.

We know that posts can be edited too, which makes any research project that is based on posts even more difficult, in the event that either you did not quote the post at the time or recall the specific post in order that you would possibly be able to view it's edit history.

[El duderino_]

Blockstack Berlin: signature fund event on march 2
Maybe something too visit ......

[JayJuanGee]

Since the dip we are currently climbing at approximately $750/day  

We will be seeing $10k before monday hopefully.
ATH might get passed before the end of the month.

We will get some testing of support but other than that we are going bullish again

Fingers crossed  

Would be Nice maybe little fast but as they say anythings possible @BTC

You never know in bitcoinlandia; however, I would think that 3 months would be more realistic on the optimistic side of things, with maybe an outside (quasi-realistic) range of that would be from about 3 to 9 months.

[El duderino_]

Since the dip we are currently climbing at approximately $750/day 

We will be seeing $10k before monday hopefully.
ATH might get passed before the end of the month.

We will get some testing of support but other than that we are going bullish again

Fingers crossed 

Would be Nice maybe little fast but as they say anythings possible @BTC

You never know in bitcoinlandia; however, I would think that 3 months would be more realistic on the optimistic side of things, with maybe an outside (quasi-realistic) range of that would be from about 3 to 9 months.

As you say never know but a steady grow would be good for me too
When not selling coins iT doesn’t matter When or how the price grows...... its al about the big picture

[willope]

BCASH pump&dump beginning!
Ready to make money!

[d_eddie]

Listen here. The thing about racists: Everyone is a racist.

Sometimes we need to put others down to make us feel good about ourselves. It is just desperate human nature of someone who does not like themself. From a psychological standpoint anyway.

We're not talking guys who hate their second cousins. It's specifically called racism if "the others" are people with a phenotype markedly different from yours. Or a different upbringing.

[d_eddie]

You can tweak the amounts, and/or you can tweak the gaps (leaving two rather than one, for example).
You can realign the whole ladder by a few dollar points (under the $500 step size, in the example I made).

But right, if you don't do that, that's the way I understand it too - you harvest your latest top when you reach a bottom, and vice versa.

Thanks for helping me brainwrap that.

It seems to be more of a risk management strategy than anything.  Most of the transactions are cancelling out with zero risk while ensuring that you are right there on a reversal.

Your only real risk is that it runs off in a huge move that exhausts your supply of one side of the pair.

I think I remember JayJuanGee talking about being busy shuffling orders around during the latest storm - respacing them with wider steps if I remember it right. Jbreher hinted he does the shuffling manually too (likely with a smaller step size, which of course implies more work). You basically have to babysit this toy, either automatically or manually.

edit/  I just deleted a recently added sell order that would have prevented me from "getting in" if it goes up from here...

So it seems to be working for you isn't it?

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

To be really good you just need to be better than the average trader. And for that you don't need to sell the exact top or buy the exact bottom. It's enough to stagger purchases and sales in proportions that depend on the probabilities of price increases/decreases by certain numbers. Finding the probabilities is the trick here, as well as averaging them out in a way that guarantees you a performance band in which your portfolio will fall with a given probability. Doing that requires an understanding of time series as well as the ability to process large amounts of data (beyond just the price charts) though.

Agreed, but why didn't we see the crash coming? If there was a pattern to predict that, not many here did.

Did you know after it went up towards 20k that within a month or so it would hit 6K?  I didn't.

That's exactly what I would like to be able to figure out - partially, tentatively, doubtfully, of course. In another post, kurious said something to the effect "Exactness is not possible, but getting as close to it as we can is a noble art." I'm quoting from memory, words might be off. Well, that's exactly what I hope to do, and I'm asking for help from several points of view. The advanced conspiration theorist, the technical analyst, the macroeconomist, the street-wise long time exchange user. I'm none of that yet, but honing my gut feeling skills seems a worthy endeavour.

That depends on how much time and effort you are willing to expend, or alternatively money if you'd prefer hiring people.

The most accurate solution will be a well-balanced combination of multiple approaches, and the balancing act is something that can always be improved upon with new data. It's also very much possible to create fresh data from what you already know, which is to some extent what technical analysis does.

If you're not looking into algorithmic trading then your best bet is a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. If you're looking into algorithmic trading, you'll find no upper ceiling no matter how many resources you throw at the problem.

If you're manually trading you may want to consider trading on different time scales simultaneously (minutes/hours/days/weeks/months), both for better hedging and for accelerated self-improvement. There are also altcoins that are "negatively" correlated to BTC/USD (e.g. they do the opposite of what BTC/USD does), which can be used fairly easily to increase your stashes during periods of extreme volatility on any time scale.

I'm no real trader, but I do have a small part of my holdings loose in the wild - mostly learning and making the occasional small profit. Got a few lessons already, at reasonable prices.

Thanks for the advice about multiple scales. The algorithmic thingy really tickles me, especially if it can be steered/tweaked while it runs. Can you suggest any good reference?

I don't really know what is available "on the market" in terms of trading bots, so I can't give you any reference in that regard. The ones that I've seen that were available to the public all had the flaw that they get annihilated during both pumps and dumps, mostly due to oversimplified rules. They were pretty decent in sideways markets and not easy to produce without experience, but you certainly wouldn't want to leave them running 24/7 without attending to them. And the ones that have the capacity of somewhat steering clear P&Ds will either cost a lot or not be available at all, as they would lower the profitability of whoever created the bot.

So the best option would be to program your own. For that purpose, Python would be great for the Machine Learning part (reading data, learning patterns and self-adjusting) and C++ for optimization (if you wanted to run a large amount of computers in parallel to process more data). From scratch this will take a while to get running (weeks to years depending on your background), but it's worth exploring since that's something that would be relevant for the rest of your life.

Edit: There's also Google's TensorFlow which is basically a high efficiency Machine Learning library that cherry picks the best of both worlds (Python/cpp).

[conspirosphere.tk]

We're not talking guys who hate their second cousins. It's specifically called racism if "the others" are people with a phenotype markedly different from yours. Or a different upbringing.

Hating is legit as much as loving. Hating some particular phenotype without any practical motives seems stupid at first sight, until you discover that there may be good (((motives))).

https://i.imgur.com/HPrphhM.jpg

[vroom]

BCASH pump&dump beginning!
Ready to make money!

Why do I hate these bcash idiots so much?

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

BCASH pump&dump beginning!
Ready to make money!

Why do I hate these bcash idiots so much?

Because of their sleazy tactics?