[ANN] Spondoolies-Tech - carrier grade, data center ready mining rigs

[jimmothy]

Must I find all the absurd predictions you have made?

I remember "I predict the whole miner/system (AM) will be well over 2$/GH".

All? You gave one. Please show me all the absurd predictions that I made.

Here are a few from your "group buy".

Caveat Emptor -- http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=6978842650&dcosts=4995&diff_mincrease=15&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=5400000&diff_mincreasedecrease=0.5&btcusd=453.80&dpowcon=2500&btcusd_mincrease=1&pcost=0.115&calcweeks=32&dleadtime=9&action=calc#

This is with modest 15% diff increase (it will be 20% or more).

Please don't troll this thread. Thinking that the difficulty will raise nonstop with 15% is simply unreal and it's bad intended.

I will refrain from making any assumption regarding the difficulty because nobody knows what hashing power will be deployed in the future and i don't want to influence people by telling them that difficulty will be X or Y. Everyone should make take their own decision based on what they find fitted for themselves, but i will only say that a nonstop grow of 15%-20% is unsustainable. If you think that it's not worth buying miners then there are many more like you which means that difficulty will grow at a slower rate than 15%-20%. For me it's simple. I will just give you an example. At 100 billion difficulty and 500$ per BTC having 100TH which consumes 100kW would make you around 3k$ per month that's not taking into consideration the cooling that you will need. Also deploying 100 TH means investing A LOT of money. Who would invest A LOT of money just to make a couple thousand per month? Actually if we take into consideration the cooling i think that you are already in the negative values which means the big growth will stop or slow down very much.

Also how about you show me the context of that prediction? I think it was before specs were released because the specs definitely change the prediction. Also the market price of the time of the prediction matters and also the time of the actual price announcement matters. So don't be a journalist which pulls things out of context to give things a different meaning.

Nope it was after specs were released.

[cruzader]

How can that be? Server psus are probably one of the most common parts they are using.

Do you really think you can buy >2k PSU off the shelf with immediate delivery? Why are you underestimating the sales force of the PSU manufacturers?

If you consider that just the top3 brands will produce and ship an expected 2,9-3,1million servers in 2014 and 35% of those are delivered with more than 1 psu.
Puts just those 3 brands at a need of 4,5-5million server-grade psus a year.
Another 2-2,2million switch/san psu's from again just top3 brands.
Considering marketshare the lower brands that adds another 20% ontop of those numbers.

Around 8million units are needed just for the mainstream server/switch/san production a year.
or around 22 000 servergrade psu's a day just for mainstream servers, no clear numbers for other industrial applications or whitelabel servers.

So yeah, must be soooo hard for them to have to produce another few thousand for spondoolies...

[RoadStress]

Here are a few from your "group buy".

Please don't troll this thread. Thinking that the difficulty will raise nonstop with 15% is simply unreal and it's bad intended.

Let's see what happened around the time of my prediction and afterwards:

Apr 17 2014    6,978,842,650    14.04%
Apr 29 2014    8,000,872,136    14.64%

14% average increase.

May 24 2014    10,455,720,138    18.10%
May 12 2014    8,853,416,309    10.66%

14% average increase

June had a 17% average increase and first July increase was 3% and the next one is projected to be ~10-12% which will make the average increase only 7%. From my point of view I was right with the diff prediction.

Not taking into consideration that the summer was a "hot" one with many vendors releasing new miners (Bitmain, KnC, SP-Tech and AM). Autumn and winter (after the SP30 arrives) will bring us more stagnation I think. I may be wrong here, but I don't think there will be many vendors releasing new miners/chips after SP30 until winter! Mark my words.

I will refrain from making any assumption regarding the difficulty because nobody knows what hashing power will be deployed in the future and i don't want to influence people by telling them that difficulty will be X or Y. Everyone should make take their own decision based on what they find fitted for themselves, but i will only say that a nonstop grow of 15%-20% is unsustainable. If you think that it's not worth buying miners then there are many more like you which means that difficulty will grow at a slower rate than 15%-20%. For me it's simple. I will just give you an example. At 100 billion difficulty and 500$ per BTC having 100TH which consumes 100kW would make you around 3k$ per month that's not taking into consideration the cooling that you will need. Also deploying 100 TH means investing A LOT of money. Who would invest A LOT of money just to make a couple thousand per month? Actually if we take into consideration the cooling i think that you are already in the negative values which means the big growth will stop or slow down very much.

Not sure what's the wrong assumption here.

Also how about you show me the context of that prediction? I think it was before specs were released because the specs definitely change the prediction. Also the market price of the time of the prediction matters and also the time of the actual price announcement matters. So don't be a journalist which pulls things out of context to give things a different meaning.

Nope it was after specs were released.

Ok after specs, but what was the market $/Gh back then? I can't remember when did FC announced the pricing. Any help?

Around 8million units are needed just for the mainstream server/switch/san production a year.
or around 22 000 servergrade psu's a day just for mainstream servers, no clear numbers for other industrial applications or whitelabel servers.

So yeah, must be soooo hard for them to have to produce another few thousand for spondoolies...

Production capacity availability are 2 different things! Nobody said they can't produce a few thousand PSUs for SP-Tech, but the timing is critical. Look at TSCM. They have the biggest production capacity when it comes to chips, but yet the availability is their biggest kept secret and people pay a premium to have chips delivered faster.

[Powell]

Chips there and production already started?  It's 6:30pm (correct?) so hopefully orders shall be rolling out.

[RoadStress]

Chips there and production already started?  It's 6:30pm (correct?) so hopefully orders shall be rolling out.

Give them 1-2 days to get a prototype running then they will start mass production.

[jimmothy]

From my point of view I was right with the diff prediction.

The average difficulty for the past 3 months was 14% instead of 15% so I guess you were right.

Why didn't you just say his estimations were off by 1% instead of dismissing it as "simply unreal"?

I will refrain from making any assumption regarding the difficulty because nobody knows what hashing power will be deployed in the future and i don't want to influence people by telling them that difficulty will be X or Y. Everyone should make take their own decision based on what they find fitted for themselves, but i will only say that a nonstop grow of 15%-20% is unsustainable. If you think that it's not worth buying miners then there are many more like you which means that difficulty will grow at a slower rate than 15%-20%. For me it's simple. I will just give you an example. At 100 billion difficulty and 500$ per BTC having 100TH which consumes 100kW would make you around 3k$ per month that's not taking into consideration the cooling that you will need. Also deploying 100 TH means investing A LOT of money. Who would invest A LOT of money just to make a couple thousand per month? Actually if we take into consideration the cooling i think that you are already in the negative values which means the big growth will stop or slow down very much.

Not sure what's the wrong assumption here.

Hope that helps.

Also how about you show me the context of that prediction? I think it was before specs were released because the specs definitely change the prediction. Also the market price of the time of the prediction matters and also the time of the actual price announcement matters. So don't be a journalist which pulls things out of context to give things a different meaning.

Nope it was after specs were released.

Ok after specs, but what was the market $/Gh back then? I can't remember when did FC announced the pricing. Any help?

It was after specs and chip pricing. Just before making that prediction you said:

It's hard to have miners cheap and profitable for miners. They need to maximize profits for their shareholders and judging by history they have always sold miners at very big prices. It's hard for me to think that now they will do a dumping sale when VMC and Bitmain are under 2$/GH. In a few days we will see the prices.

to which I replied

They claim it will be the best price per gh.

AM chips will be sold for as low as $0.5/gh.

Anyways it doesn't even matter what information you had before making your prediction. My point is that to make an "accurate" prediction you need information you don't have.

[frisco]

RoadStress, Jimmothy et al, please refrain from discussing your issues in this post, this post is SP and their products, you can use PMs as much as you want or create your own post.
It is absurd that the last 3 or 4 pages are just quotes of quotes and attacks between you.

We are all excited about the new SP30 so let SP do their work and we will see very soon how this story ends.

[raskul]

all safe and well?

[Biffa]

all safe and well?

tickety boo

[raskul]

all safe and well?

tickety boo

grand

[RoadStress]

The average difficulty for the past 3 months was 14% instead of 15% so I guess you were right.

Why didn't you just say his estimations were off by 1% instead of dismissing it as "simply unreal"?

As previously stated I think that a higher rise of difficulty is pretty normal for the past 3 months considering there were many manufacturers waiting for new chips. I am not aware of any new chips coming online between August and December. Also please note that my statement says "nonstop" and we are only measuring the first 3 months right now. Let's see how the numbers will be at the 6 months mark.

And being off by 1% in favor of my statement is much better than being off by 90% which were AM's estimates of chips sold by now. I still find my estimation to be spot on. You can't say the same thing about your dividends estimations.

I will refrain from making any assumption regarding the difficulty because nobody knows what hashing power will be deployed in the future and i don't want to influence people by telling them that difficulty will be X or Y. Everyone should make take their own decision based on what they find fitted for themselves, but i will only say that a nonstop grow of 15%-20% is unsustainable. If you think that it's not worth buying miners then there are many more like you which means that difficulty will grow at a slower rate than 15%-20%. For me it's simple. I will just give you an example. At 100 billion difficulty and 500$ per BTC having 100TH which consumes 100kW would make you around 3k$ per month that's not taking into consideration the cooling that you will need. Also deploying 100 TH means investing A LOT of money. Who would invest A LOT of money just to make a couple thousand per month? Actually if we take into consideration the cooling i think that you are already in the negative values which means the big growth will stop or slow down very much.

Not sure what's the wrong assumption here.

Hope that helps.

I still don't see what's wrong there. I'm stating that at an exchange rate of 500$/BTC and 100 bil difficulty and having 1W/GH miners there won't be any incentive for new miners to join mining which translates into a stop of the difficulty rise. You don't agree with this statement?

Also how about you show me the context of that prediction? I think it was before specs were released because the specs definitely change the prediction. Also the market price of the time of the prediction matters and also the time of the actual price announcement matters. So don't be a journalist which pulls things out of context to give things a different meaning.

Nope it was after specs were released.

Ok after specs, but what was the market $/Gh back then? I can't remember when did FC announced the pricing. Any help?

It was after specs and chip pricing. Just before making that prediction you said:

I wasn't talking about chips pricing. I was asking you when we had the first full system miner price. Because I made my prediction when the market price was under 2$/GH. If the market price was less than 1.5$/GH when AM finally had some full system miners online then my prediction needs adjustment to 1.5$/GH-2$/GH. My prediction was that AM full miners will cost a bit more than the current $/GH when they were available.

But yes I was wrong about it because AM decided they need to use a dumping price in order to get rid of the inefficient chips, but this shouldn't make any AM shareholder happy.

@frisco Noted! Will try to limit it, but I need to think of something else instead of the SP30 because the waiting is so damn hard especially until we see some live hashing.

[dropt]

[...] I am not aware of any new chips coming online between August and December. [...]

AM Gen4 @ 28nm, Bitfury @ 28nm, KnC might actually get some yield on their 20nm, and Bitmain's just starting to dump 28nm on the market and we all know how they handle business.

This party ain't over yet.

[Collider]

@spondoolies

Can you confirm that you took delivery of the chips?

...We can neither confirm nor deny that we took delivery of the first chips today...

[Blazed]

Was really nice meeting all you guys this past weekend at btcchicago...and seeing the SP30 (minus ASIC's)  Thanks for the nice shirt too!

[wpgdeez]

RoadStress, Jimmothy et al, please refrain from discussing your issues in this post, this post is SP and their products, you can use PMs as much as you want or create your own post.
It is absurd that the last 3 or 4 pages are just quotes of quotes and attacks between you.

We are all excited about the new SP30 so let SP do their work and we will see very soon how this story ends.

They have massive e-peens don't count on it.

[RoadStress]

[...] I am not aware of any new chips coming online between August and December. [...]

AM Gen4 @ 28nm, Bitfury @ 28nm, KnC might actually get some yield on their 20nm, and Bitmain's just starting to dump 28nm on the market and we all know how they handle business.

This party ain't over yet.

True, but considering the big lead time for KnC's chips I'm not worried so much about them, as for Bitfury I'm expecting them to just upgrade the gen1 chips which levels a bit their contribution to the network. I see Bitmain as the main contributor(except SP-Tech ofc ) and for AM I will remain reserved until they release the gen4 specs and actually see them in action.

[wpgdeez]

I see lots of consumer Airlines are no longer flying to Israel, I wonder if carriers like UPS will follow suit.

[Marvell1]

I see lots of consumer Airlines are no longer flying to Israel, I wonder if carriers like UPS will follow suit.

god damn they need to end this war BS quick so i can get my miners and start making ROI !

wtf lol

[Marvell1]

I see lots of consumer Airlines are no longer flying to Israel, I wonder if carriers like UPS will follow suit.

god damn they need to end this war BS quick so i can get my miners and start making ROI !

wtf lol

how much does a ticket to Israel cost from the US lol we might have to risk our own lives here to get our miners

ROI or DIE !

p.s I'm not trying to make light of whats going on back in Israel and Gaza  but its so prophetic that this would happen right when our miners are close to delivery
we have multiple flight risk issues: the MA17 and the Rockets landing near Tel Av-iv airport right when the Asics are supposed to arrive ?  I swear it seems everything is stacked against small time miners even God it seems hates us. 

[tempestb]

Don't worry about shipping.  Shippers fly into combat zones unless the airspace is closed.  And even then, they'll move it by truck or sea to a friendly shipping point.  Of course, if they nuke it then all bets are off.