Something some folks may not be considering is the resale value of their system, or lack thereof. If KNC doesn't allow for a transfer of equipment, will they allow a transfer of mining contract? At least with the hardware, there's always someone out on ebay willing to buy it from you, likely above MSRP even if you can sell it soon after receiving.

You could still subcontract the miner out, but would you ever get $13k back from it? Doubtful.

If it were me, I would look at it like this: A lot of the folks who were KNC-crazy the past few months, who claim to have made huge profits on their first units, either didn't preorder the Neptune or refunded their Neptunes over the past month.

That's worth considering.

Its much more stable now than before.. I'm mining it, it's going to be bread and butter this year.

Jeez they're  already on 1.5.. i haven't had time to test 1.4

It's not perfect, but between September and January it was within acceptable range every time I checked it against my numbers, and I only looked at the 60 and 90 day projections. Looking back, that range was close enough to be called good. Hindsight. Not saying it's perfect for the future, but it's a decent idea, and more importantly it errs on the safe side.


No need to argue anything, just go back and see what we said vs what happened. Or don't, because other folks in this thread who poked our eyes out over the past few months, have suddenly stopped doing so, and some of them got refunds afterward and I suppose tucked tail to save face.


Oh it's far more than just millions. Come up with a digit and then add 8 zeros to it.

But so? Who cares what they've done with their money /after/ it became their money. I'm more upset how they treated their customers (you guys) during it all, and the fact they failed to hold their word on key points--points which is what got them propped up to begin with. Network Protection, Modular Expansion, Taking care of their Batch 1 & 2 Customers.

Their hardware had a 900% markup on it. Nobody was complaining when they could order it, everyone was yelling "shutup and take my money". Jupiters' in-house cost is roughly a grand. I called that number before they even had chips in hand! Based it off of what I knew of PCB design, bulk ordering and assembly lines. Later on (December) found out that KNC's in-house value priced them at around a grand as well. Not far off am I? And I'm not the only one who knows their actual cost. There's some silent folks here who know.

Neptune I'm pegging at around 1,500 first batch.

*shrugs* You win some, you lose some. Sometimes objective analysis pays off.

I sure as hell didn't preorder anything with them, I knew the only "profitable" batches would be 2013 1&2, and nothing beyond that--unless BTC value went stupid crazy. A lot of the other 'smart sharks' in this thread made money mining and then sold the equipment and got out before the ship sank.

I have never made official projections on the price of BTC because it's far too young and volatile right now. I was shocked to see it rise as much as it did this early into the game, I will say that much, so my thoght is in line with what you're saying. I just think it's a moot point right now.

I'm almost convinced the pump in price was done through market manipulation by certain groups which have large holdings of BTC and plenty of mining power. There is a pattern to price flux and equipment purchases if you look at it closely. Price goes high when there's a trend in equipment purchase in Asia, and is low before and after. It seems like some people are basically just giving themselves discounts on more hashpower, but that's for another speculation forum.

My difficulty estimates for months have been almost spot-on, except the jump in December where I overshot it due to an unnamed company  not shipping.

Almost every call myself and a few others have made on KNC, weeks and months in advance, has been accurate as well--the good and the bad. It pays to be more of an observer than anything with regard to these startup companies.

Buying and trading has done me well also. I've made more with those methods (especially scrypt coins->btc), than by simply mining. Mining for "serious profit" went out the window long ago. Miners from here on out are just going to be like highway overpass supports--supporting the network, but overlooked and underpaid, certainly not making profits.

Until such time as BTC value actually takes off. The demand simply isn't there right now, there's far more supply than demand or utility.

That's something for Mark (tagbond) to discuss, I have no idea.

It would be nice if it was mentioned in the OP, but it is mentioned elsewhere in this thread.

Mark, I also suggest putting it in the OP so new folks won't have this issue.

It's been known to avoid bter for awhile now.

Well, with the 36M/usd they took in, subtract 4M for the 20nm fab, then subtract about 1.5k per Neptune (buffered price), and you're left with 26.6M/usd. Not counting the amount they've mined.. they seem well off.

I wonder how well off most of their Batch 1/2 customers are, who have been clearly used as doormats and stepping stones.

Not that I'm criticisizing your efforts, as the communication is appreciated by the community, but I have to wonder how an entity with the volume of cash you guys have, can't manage server stabilization?

I won't be available, but feel free to send me the cliffnotes.

TGB's 60 and 90 day estimates aren't garbage, they've done fairly well over the last few months. Back in September it was showing about a billion for January, and that wasn't far off.

So far, the people saying things like this are also the same people who got everything else wrong in this thread. Meanwhile myself, Avenger, and our non-english speaking friend, have had really great projections and speculation-come-true.

Bitcoin works well at $10 or $100? What does that matter? I'm sure it would work well at $1,000,000 also. Sounds like some folks are just upset and want hardware makers to suffer.

First make sure they work without the risers. Put the cards in right on the motherboard. If they're still not showing up, your cards and/or motherboard and/or OS setup are hosed. If at any point you have reversed the risers, you have likely fried things. If they work, then move on:

Second, sometimes windows has issues using GPUs which are only on the 1x pcie format, especially AMD-based ones. Reboot several times, they might start showing up one at a time. I've seen that solve it.

Third, don't use windows to mine, try an alternate setup. Try BAMT, for example.

Speculation: For conscience sake perhaps the company itself only lists on paperwork that it "owns/mines" with 5%, but provided a bunch more to its "founding employees" as part of their employment, which lets them "mine with it". This would let them say that they only mine 5%, while still letting them use a butt-tonne more hash.

Truth! The only caveat is if they're caught mining with more than 5% hashrate of what they have shipped.

You clearly haven't kept up with whats been promised vs what actually happened. Thanks for your input though.

You're crazy lol. They'll be produced and will ship.

I said 3 months ago KNC is shifting to industrial/co-lo only stuff, and this is their major step toward that effort. This is likely the last year KNC ships to individuals.

Because like many alt coins, there is no inherent value, nor a marketplace.

Probably, who knows. All I know is I've made 25+ BTC with about 8grand in equipment, and I'm about to get more free equipment. Combined with my BTC mining, it's been a good year, and I think a lot of batch 1/2 KNC customers can say the same.

Scryptmining is still lucrative!

I've made more with that, trading it up to BTC< than bitcoin machines alone.