I agree largely with that. But I'm not suggesting day-trading with ACtM holdings. Not at all. I'm just saying that when price is swinging by 40%+ per day and you have 1.4k BTC to convert you need to pick the right time.

We are talking differences of up to $500,000 when converting 1.4k BTC at a price of $600 or $240

You are absolutely correct. Many people make money from naive people selling them bad advice by pretending they can trade by examining yesterdays charts and saying 'I would have done this'.

But I only made one 'I would have comment'.

The rest of my posts are all predictions for the future - and as I said, I am advising now for the near future i.e. next few days. The advice is hold until we see what price does around the bottom of this new channel that was established last night.

Indeed. Last night I would have sold at $600. But with the very strong bounce at $450+ I would have re-bought at $600 (there was plenty of opportunity to do so) on the way back up so as to not lose anything.

Admittedly we can't expect Ken to be a stockbroker as I mentioned before but I just needed to rebalance the points I made yesterday in the light of this significant $300 bounce up. I won't be making these regular posts, that is probably the last one as the crucial time for our finances and this significant holding of BTC is around now. Once we start hashing we will be selling the BTC within a short time of them being mined I would think - largely regardless of price.

Whether we actually need to sell the 1.4k has not been made clear so I was making 'just in case' points.

Yes I am. This is advice for Ken re:  1.4k of ACtM reserves, so it is on-topic.

Change in BTC momentum.

With the very strong bounce (up to $735) from the $470 area last night BTC confirmed and establish a strong uptrend.

As with the previous two charts I posted, this channel could hold and so BTC could trend higher from here on.

How price reacts on a return to the bottom of this channel (around $550) will let us know if price is to continue to rise (up to $1000 over the next few weeks) or break down to the previously mention levels (circa $400).

So right now the forcast is: uncertain.
Advice - hold BTC.

I don't know.

I don't know Ukyo. There are valid concerns it seems with BTC withdrawl via weexchange so his reliability has some question marks around it now. He claims to be very very busy so will he have time to transfer all shares back to issuer? If it's a simple process on his part yes I think he will do it in a timely manner. If it's time intensive, you could be waiting a long time for your 'auto tender'.


NB 'All transfers to AMC-TENDER must be completed by UTC November 28, 2013.  Only transfers to AMC-TENDER will be transferred to a new exchange.'

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=297543.msg3492434#msg3492434

Yes. Transfer them to Ken and he will put them on the new exchange when it is open.

Log in to BF.
Go to the 'Transfer' page.
Select 'ActiveMining' shares.
Select amount - (all your shares)
Input AMC-TENDER into Username box
Click TRANSFER.

Before you do that, go to the 'Settings' page and make sure your 'Public Bitcoin Address' is one that you can sign from -  eg a Blockchain Wallet- https://blockchain.info/wallet

Take a screenshot of your tender confirmation page and save it. You do not need to email or PM Ken. You may be asked at some point in the future to sign from your wallet address (with your Bitfunder name) to prove you are the owner of that address.


Announcement:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=297543.msg3492434#msg3492434

Yeah looks great knybe, but look a bit closer, the chart says $100 a BTC right now would be within the (median) rising channel. So we could be $500 over-valued right now according to your 'everything looks to be on schedule' chart.

We are at $600 right now. I predict sub $400 within a few days where it will stay in the 3-400 range for an extended period. There will be no recovery to the 900 level this year.

Last time we had a bubble when it shot up outside of the established rising channel to  $260 we waited 6 full months for a return to that level. I don't think we will need to wait 6months for a return to the recent high but 2-4 months is likely.

Median channels on a log-scale chart are not of much use for short-term investment decisions - especially when the volatility spikes are up to 80% of total value of the security. They give a false sense of price movement and when we are thinking of securing short-term gains the log-scale will give you very limited/no cues as to when to sell.

These are the real-world trend channels you need to look at to see where spot price is likely to go based on the current underlying trend - 2 possibilities to chose from. Both say SELL NOW to lock-in profit or be prepared to wait 2months+ for a return to these levels.





NB no prediction is cast in stone - but this is the most likely future over the short-term based on recent price action. IMO

Good page. there is a guy on there predicting 170 USD bottom. A bit low for me but he's in the right territory.

Why do you say that about Monday or Tuesday?

I predict we will not see 900USD again this year. We've seen Mrs China lose a mint now we are waiting for some big players to push this higher. And serious players will only get in on a good price. Right now a good price is sub 400, so expect a steady decline for the next six to eight weeks.

If anyone want's to cash out at a decent price they need to do so today.

Bargraphics you just repeated yourself.

As you did I'll repeat myself - if you don't cash out at opportune times in a very volatile market you run the risk of cashing out at a very bad price.

BTC will always go up? Like it did last night you mean? Have a look at the chart and tell us how long we had to wait to see 260 USD after the first time.

Do you know how many people got their fingers burned last night? You are looking at maybe 1000 Mill USD pumped into it last night from 600 up to 900USD.

On the way down to 500USD you are looking at hundreds of millions of USD lost - mostly by Chinese housewives I'd imagine. This bubble and bust may have scared an awful lot of people off.

Cashing them out when needed is an overly simplistic attitude in such a volatile market.

BTC is not unlike any other security on the planet. When it goes up a long way holders cash-out. That is the nature of every security and BTC is no different. That's why is was 900 one moment and 500 the next.

When price is relatively high compared to recent highs (as it is right now) you must profit-take.

That isn't happening until Dec 2nd.

Are you using 2-Fac authentication?

Yes all you have on here are Trolls and the 'speculator wishful thinking types'. As you've just kind of insulted both groups who do you think is going to answer your question?

Really sorry. You carry on.

Breaking down through 600. It could go anywhere but I'd say no lower than 460.

Inevitable.

This one hour bar is 300USD wide - so far.

MTgox just touched 900USD!

Bad reaction, instantly fell to 800 - must be some big sellers now, and no surprises there.

Jolly good show, what.