Bruno got himself an acceptable exception by providing a formula in time (and I would check if he calculated correctly if I were his neighbor when loosing to him). All after that are post the deadline aka dead

Or in other words: The coinbase transaction creates coins at a certain block chain height. Every other transaction moves them to a new block chain height.

block 100: coinbase 50Ƀ -> A (add 50Ƀ to "100")
block 200: 50Ƀ of A -> 29Ƀ to A, 10Ƀ to B, 10Ƀ to C (ignore input to A, B, C, fee. Just remove 50Ƀ from "100" and add them to "200")
block 300: 10Ƀ of B -> X, Y (Move the 10Ƀ of B from "200" to "300")

The graph shows, when coins move that were moved last at a certain time. It gives a very interesting insight beyond your bitcoin hours destroyed. For example you can see how in 07/2011 many addresses received coins that were not moved ever since. Unfortunately the y-axis is clipped and not log Combine this chart with the bitcoin price and you get insights on how people that bought/earned/mined coins at $17 are willing to sell/spend/… at $4 for example as you can see how specific regions melt off over time. Also see for example how the very early blocks get spent 10% in parallel during the 2011 sell offs, while the newer coins are not touched that much. This implies that at least the owners of these coins know each other and coordinated their sale or it was just one of the 10% miners of the first year that moved all his coins.
I hope you find the time to also make an animated version of this chart with even higher granularity as this is at least great fun to speculate about

Also congrats to you and your 100k wallets

Edit: I would remove the green (more or less constant) and red (redundant) lines, use a log scale, and draw the initial value of each bar green, coins that moved last week red, last month blue, last year yellow, earlier black. So for each pixel that you book from "100" to "200" you don't delete it at "200" but turn it red, one week later you turn it blue, …

Edit: Ha! You can make it static! Draw all inputs + coinbase black and mark pixels with the time stamp that they got removed at. Removed following 4 years, 2 years, 1 year, 6 months, 3 months, 6 weeks, 3 weeks, 10 days, 5 days, 2 days, … Edit: Downside would be that pixels one year before the latest block get a different color than younger coins, so relation is harder to read.

I give up Without animation I see no chance to accurately give insights for all the history. Very readable would be the inverse of this last suggestion. Draw the "now" bar green, the yesterday-bar blue (for the input), the next 2 red (for the input), … and if you moved value from yesterday to now, color a respective part of "yesterday" in today's color green. This way I could quickly see at which time frames coins were last moved that go into today's, last week's, last month's, … transactions. To analyse which coins went into January 5ths transaction I would need to change the point of reference though as I could not distinguish coins from the day before from coins from 4 days before.

OMG casascius! I was quoting you in my post on exactly this subject but thanks for hinting me to what I just described. Also I doubt anybody ever intended to change the protocol, a client or anything. I see this just as a reminder to no use valid addresses nobody is tracking in artwork.

Mind being less ignorant? I think it is a valid concern that people doing cool stuff with bitcoin addresses in it might or might not want to get tipped to these addresses and should have a way to explicitly not encourage people to tip them. It might not be your concern so please move along.

Maybe he wants to explicitly invalidate it in order to not look like hoping to get some money to the address. Therefore I welcome the topic but not the solution.
How about preceding with 1555wTcG7zJJW3Tp3EG72dVpZfghwV4pr?
This looks like it could be a valid address but you learn there is no point in trying to send money there.

Another approach would be to prefix with 1FakeTcG7zJJW3Tp3EG72dVpZfghwV4pr so it's clear to even people expecting a real address

Call it money laundering and you repel people. Call it fungibility and people tend to support this basic nature bitcoin needs to be cash. If my bitcoins get deducted x% of their value when paying a governmental entity due to containing x% coins from their daily updated black list of transactions, I will think twice if bitcoin failed as a whole. Prevent that from happening means talking about the dangers of taint analysis.
I guess it will be kind of trivial to have some transaction merging being done with every payment once the network gets busier and I also think this should be done (opt out) by the client.
(BitcoinSpinner style A->B+A transactions definitely are a pain. After having done business with 10 or so people through my Android I get very much aware of it.)

Basically we could have 1 transaction per block but involving more entities to forge a transaction will make it more prone to people never signing it. Also the 1 transaction per block would lead to having the true transaction data being public but outside of the blockchain. Similarly some "agency" could heavily advertise to merge transactions with its transactions just to be able to gather intelligence for later taint analysis. Therefore the best strategy for now would be to seek signing partners only in very small groups of maybe not more than 2.

The circle of trust experiment seams to eventually succeed at some point or another (and maybe this bumper helps to make it sooner) but it also brought me to another idea. Many people have the guts feeling to have to trust this "bitcoin company" if they take my bitcoins so it's highly suspicious. How about producing a little video that features all the current clients with a 30s video each, mainly done by the developers of the respective clients featuring why they prefer their own client but with a bitcoin being handed from one to the next. Essentially I would imagine a screencast best with the person speaking visible in one corner, showing off their client:
So, Alice wants to send me one Bitcoin. I quickly go to instawallet, bookmark the site, send her the receiving address, and here, voila I receive my bitcoin.
So Bob wants to send me a bitcoin. As a miner I have my bitcoind running anyway, so I quickly type in "bitcoind getnewaddress" and send Bob the address. Sending Dave and Evelyn bitcoins is as easy as typing …
So Cindy sent me bitcoins to my mtGox account. I can now …

Yeah I know, "please stop acting stupid" but I'd love to see some freak walking around with this special radio "jammer" only to tune in his local pub to the bitcoin show aired life from his bag
… with video please

Sorry, this is not meant super seriously but I could not resist

http://www.icrobotics.co.uk/wiki/index.php/Turning_the_Raspberry_Pi_Into_an_FM_Transmitter

I don't like that changing the bet is not allowed but then again it somehow is when I managed to realize that my bet was taken already.
Bets can be made to arbitrary precision so the betting space is not going to be dense, although a 3-digit number is more likely to be a direct hit than a 7-digit number due to the fact that there are still trades done manually.
Betting where nobody has bet before makes winning more likely as the 3-digit values in the 18-ish area are bet on densely already, it's more likely to win with 22.3 than with 18.333 as either 18.33 or 18.34 would be 10 times more likely than any 18.3x
Sure, betting later yields higher chances of hitting the target so there should be an incentive to pick earlier, too. (Or not as apparently many people bet early. Well …)

If you just invested 10 Ƀ to see where the journey is going, you should provide this incentive more decoupled from above concerns. You want early data? Weight it higher. You want honest guesses? Don't punish people that are off by 1 Satoshi just because the correct guess was already taken. Make an even payout to all within +-5ct. or maybe weight that number with the days before the event that they gave their bet.

uhm, I would have spent one $ to test this but … it's a joke, sorry. I'd rather see camforbitcoin fly than this.
It tells me I need 20 credits (for whatever).
I clicked the only online girl (and couldn't find the mute button which was not nice as I was in a skype session) and could see/hear her for free.

On the Credits page it doesn't tell me how many $$ there is a credit. Also the minimum is $10. Should not be necessary with bitcoin.


And I had to create an account with email. Shouldn't be necessary to pay a service or to tipp as cam4btc shows.

Right. That's where I decided, not to troll like Richy_T

lets see if post count correlates with bullish or bearish predictions:

hmm ... I see no clear trend towards bullishism or bearishism but to realism maybe:



I removed one (noob) vote of $124 so the chart gets readable. Interesting that the 2 3k-posters and the 2 6k-posters each agree to different prices.
If you are interested in the raw data (up to 4 5 posts ago):
^{163/21.29;3309/19.6;818/21.17;525/18.82;66/19.05;410/15.72;87/19.80;353/18.26;20/19.83;381/22.60;6073/16.438559;166/24.00;813/20;1064/18.11;257/19;830/16.8;35/16.05;137/25.00;38/10.00;120/12.5;20/20.43;76/127;1623/18.8666;4/23.22;760/23.15;22/23.18;7/18.76;17/18.50;31/19.87;365/16.45;98/23.23;99/15.71;207/30.12;74/19.911;877/18.16;30/27;55/17.3;1193/18.24;112/17.95;127/19.387453;32/22.42;149/18.40;101/15.5;419/19.73;135/22.09;658/20.05;18/19.59;30/18.37;490/17.46;8/26.81;700/18.97;159/16.71;1346/18.53;40/18.01;109/14.4;1086/23.74;56/15.52;28/27.33;17/15.85;6076/16.42;28/17.97;271/18.14;204/17.31;16/13.5892;355/18.20;7/19.45;68/15.34;175/17.75;6/22.38;3383/19.2765;4/29.9;43/18.36;42/21.12;116/22.32;3/19.82;45/21.2;105/19.50;60/18.95;115/20.131;6/21.22;107/22.45;20/19.00;421/20.09;305/19.45;11/26.89;343/19.09;8/23.62351;16/14.07;252/18.05;43/19.86;249/20.543;12/18.85}

The median poster had 109 posts and the median estimate was $19.09.

My conclusion: The longer your track record here on the forum the less you want to look stupid by saying "$8" or "$34" even if you think it's likely.

More interesting than the post count would maybe be the account age. Guess the above picture would be clearer with that.

I did. 5MB/s for the first 10%, then pause and finished with an average of 3.8MB/s.

Hmm, so now uploading small files works but uploading blk0001.dat kind of has issues. It got to 50% at 1.2MB/s before but now I checked and it is at 43% again. This is not good for their servers if they have to receive many bytes double.

Edit: Now I definitely saw it reach 100% for the blk file and I couldn't wait for anything to happen, so I coded. Next time I checked it was at 42% again and my machine is at its limits all the time.

$23.74

very very interesting thread

You are on the wrong thread. This thread is about insurances using bitcoin/blockchain/crypto, not about insuring your bitcoins. Else I agree on your statement

Nice idea with the judgment service. The random judges were to make the cheapest yet fair pick but maybe you are right that this pick might turn out to be far from being the most effective.

dots are ugly. When did Bitcoin hit the 666Satoshi?