Are you aware that you are trying to rationalise against something that you are ALMOST doing? (there's not much difference between 90% and 100%).
I don't know if the price will go up or down.... just making a point about something I find a bit incoherent.
I think that you are missing some points, possibly. BTC constitutes less than 30% of all of my quasi-liquid investments, and within my BTC portfolio, I buy BTC on the way down and I sell BTC on the way up, and currently within my BTC portfolio I have about 90% in BTC and 10% in dollars. That can still add up to a lot of funds in dollars. If BTC prices go down 50%, I will still probably have nearly 98% of my funds in BTC, and I try to never run out of dollars in order to buy BTC on the way down (so I allocate small portions to continue to have dollars and kind of anticipate up and down volatility, rather than straight down). Further, if BTC goes up 4x, I will still likely have more than 85% in BTC.. It is like raking off the profits, but still having lots of BTC and end up having lots of dollars too. Funny how it works like that. I don't think you can accomplish anything similar with your investment by having 100% in dollars? makes no sense to me. Sure, I could allocate in different proportions, but my system seems to work pretty good, and it was even working good when my BTC balance was floating between 93% and 98% - however, recently, I had some of my own issues that caused me to have my current 90% allocation, which is a bit more lopsided towards dollars than my overall preference. I am constantly selling on the way up and constantly buying on the way down and reconsidering - which direction to tweak - but I do not take radical moves such as selling anymore than 5% at a time, even though I could foresee maybe selling a bit higher of a proportion if the market might seem to call for such. I understand what you are saying, and in fact it is very similar to what I do. But again, it's not that different to what that guy says he did. Only a 10% different in the betting to the upside or downside. So basically you are hedging around 10% and he is hedging 0% of the funds allocated to Bitcoin investment. In the end what really matters the most is if you are right or wrong on your bet. Other than that, it's just a 10% difference. Also, most people can decide to allocate additional funds to Bitcoin if deemed appropiate. |
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Time to fulfill Afrikoin's prophecy.
I'm already sold out and waiting for $750.
Not 100% on 750 but I'm in fiat unless it pops up convincingly through those walls. It's been a bit of a slow grind down so we'll see where it bottoms out. I hope Africoin is correct. You playing your whole investment on down? Wow!!!! If so, you sound like an irrational gambler. Don't judge my rationality, bro. $ 1200 was a pretty sale, soon it'll be time to rebuy  There could be some ways to rationally set up trades that bet 100% of your holdings, but to me, I am having difficulties imagining such, even in the hypothetical. Sounds like a bit crazy kind of rationality to bet all in one direction that does not prepare for the possibility of the other direction in a system that is far from having probabilities of anywhere near 100% in either direction at any given time. If you, or anyone else is able to explain a rational approach for such betting, the I would surely like to attempt to receive such edumacation. Are you aware that you are trying to rationalise against something that you are ALMOST doing? (there's not much difference between 90% and 100%). I don't know if the price will go up or down.... just making a point about something I find a bit incoherent. |
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Anyway, now that all cards are turned on the table we have a problem here. How to convince Jihan BU to lose that advantage in favor of Segwit.
Short of offering him his own special block reward to give up his advantage, I can't really think of a single way of doing that. Not gonna happen. But if I understand it correctly, those "boosted" ASICS can also mine in a "non boosted" way which is compatible with Segwit. Then the solution is clear.... When all miners are "boosted" it will be no advantage, and switching to "non-boosted" mode for Segwit will keep the status quo. ^segwit is a bandaid on a bleeding stab wound !! :-D Segwit+LN is a real scalable solution. Increasing the block size is the bandaid. P.S.: I don't opposse to eventually increasing the block size. But not now, and not before implementing segwit+LN. |
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I'd like to see Jihan facing jail for this, unfortunately he will go off without any major damage except for laying down his name (even more) in the mud.
EDIT: actually Lerner and Timo are the guilty, Jihan only took advantage as a piece of shit he is...
Why would he not take advantage of it? Because of Morals and Ethics? Nevermind, unfortunately it's not universal consensus. ANTMINER is a business. He is the CEO. He is right in taking advantage of his "optimised asic"... He is wrong in trying to hide it with all that nonsense BUllshit. Now we will know how much he was wrong and if the public image damage is bigger than that 20-30% advantage. Anyway, now that all cards are turned on the table we have a problem here. How to convince Jihan BU to lose that advantage in favor of Segwit. ^we need BIGGER BLOCKS period this argument of segwit vs BTU is bogus .. it's more like LN vs BIG BLOCKERS!! :-D https://blockchain.info/blocks/AntPool~OBVIOUSLY THE BLOCKS ARE FULL^^^^ Of course it is LN vs Big Blockers. Who said otherwise? We want Segwit and LN so that most of transactions don't end in the distributed blockchain. |
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Anyway, now that all cards are turned on the table we have a problem here. How to convince Jihan BU to lose that advantage in favor of Segwit.
Short of offering him his own special block reward to give up his advantage, I can't really think of a single way of doing that. Not gonna happen. But if I understand it correctly, those "boosted" ASICS can also mine in a "non boosted" way which is compatible with Segwit. Then the solution is clear.... When all miners are "boosted" it will be no advantage, and switching to "non-boosted" mode for Segwit will keep the status quo. |
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I'd like to see Jihan facing jail for this, unfortunately he will go off without any major damage except for laying down his name (even more) in the mud.
EDIT: actually Lerner and Timo are the guilty, Jihan only took advantage as a piece of shit he is...
Why would he not take advantage of it? Because of Morals and Ethics? Nevermind, unfortunately it's not universal consensus. ANTMINER is a business. He is the CEO. He is right in taking advantage of his "optimised asic"... He is wrong in trying to hide it with all that nonsense BUllshit. Now we will know how much he was wrong and if the public image damage is bigger than that 20-30% advantage. Anyway, now that all cards are turned on the table we have a problem here. How to convince Jihan BU to lose that advantage in favor of Segwit. |
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I'd like to see Jihan facing jail for this, unfortunately he will go off without any major damage except for laying down his name (even more) in the mud. EDIT: actually Lerner and Timo are the guilty, Jihan only took advantage as a piece of shit he is... Why would he not take advantage of it? |
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so LTC + Segwit scaling = Triple the price
may we *please* now go ahead already and do BTC + Segwit scaling = Triple the price ?
does that make sense to everyone yet ?
you pesky moon kids shouldn't be asking for positive developments. they know better and what's best for all of us is to sit doing nothing for the rest of eternity. and here's some fun info https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/63otrp/gregory_maxwell_major_asic_manufacturer_is/tldr = bitmain has been exploiting a secret power saving advantage that disappears if segwit happens. behavior explained. when can we wipe these assholes out? haha. Well, surprise, surprise... Finally the truth about what otherwise seemed like a totally irrational position against Segwit. |
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Right now it's literally the alt-coin lotto. Pick an altcoin. Any altcoin. If you're lucky it will get pumped, summarily dumped and then you'll be rich.
XRP WTF? It's going to be the mother of all dumps |
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How low does Bitcoin need to go before Jihan BU stops signaling that shit?
It's not because of BU, it's because a transaction with ETH costs 0,02$ whereas a transaction with BTC costs 1$. That's nonsense. Noone seemed to really care about transaction fees when we were at 1300. Well, now fees are lower, yet the price keeps dropping. |
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How low does Bitcoin need to go before Jihan BU stops signaling that shit?
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Looks like Litecoin is on its way to activate SegWit, almost at 50% now for the last 8064 blocks. The market also seems to like it. Bitcoin next?  Where do you see that? I see. 22.27% is for all current activation period. 44.10% for past 24 hours. Looks good |
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Looks like Litecoin is on its way to activate SegWit, almost at 50% now for the last 8064 blocks. The market also seems to like it. Bitcoin next? Where do you see that? I am seeing 22.29%: Litecoin Softforks @LTC_Softforks 23m23 minutes ago Litecoin segwit: 865 of 3880 blocks signalling percentage: 22.29% last 576 blocks: 21.70% (-) BIP9 last 576 blocks: 36.81% |
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In the past 24 hours it seems that some percentage of signaling mined blocks have changed from BU to Segwit. (4% over the total, 12% change from BU to Segwit). https://coin.dance/blocksBU: 36.1% Segwit: 31.9% 8MB: 5.6% Maybe its just an oscillation... but worth pointing it. (ANTPOOL, representing almost half of BU signaling, is still doing it, though). |
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I am speculating on miners finally coming back to their senses and start signaling for segwit activation. The ball is now on Jihan BU's court.
i believe that's unlikely myself. until recently most miners didn't signal for anything other than the status quo. what do you think would convince him to do so? Several factors: - He has made an strategically wrong move when he decided to start signaling BU making him personally (and ANTMINER) in the focus of this mess. Now all the darts are going to him instead of CORE. He is considered responsible of this situation and everyone is expecting him to solve the mess he has created. And BU is no solution but a bigger mess (as recent bugs and horrible public opinion is demonstrating). If a HF occurs because of BU, he will be the scapegoat. SO he better avoid it now. - Unless he is much more insane and obtuse than I would think he is, he should realise he has much more to gain making himself the SOLUTION of this deadlock instead of the problem. He could even be the "hero" if he know how to "sell" it. - He can hold for some time his mined coins, then start signaling for segwit, then sell after the big spike upwards (=profit). - The status quo was, until recently, the logical position as miners. For them it is better 1MB blocksize than higher blocksize. When they say otherwise they are just lying. But 1MB is not sustainable anymore, not for much longer. - BU is not gonna happen. Not after the recent events. - CORE is not going to increase the blocksize just now. Not BEFORE Segwit. - There is a high probability that Litecoin will activate Segwit soon. Increasing the chances that Bitcoin follows next. So... Only logical outcome is Segwit, and if that's gonna happen, it's better to be a promoter than keep fighting against it. You make some well reasoned points. However Litecoin is lagging Bitcoin in SegWit adoption according to https://twitter.com/SoftforksBut you must take into account that it was only a month ago that it was possible to signal for Segwit ( http://www.coindesk.com/litecoin-moves-to-adopt-bitcoins-segwit-scaling-upgrade/) And Litecoin mining pools are organised differently as in Bitcoin. Charlie Lee explains it: Charlie LeeVerified account @SatoshiLite Mar 21 @jmoarg Most of the Chinese pools act as one unit. So they either all for it or all against it. So it can happen quickly. I'm working on it. It is not that Litecoin *needs* Segwit for its increased TPS, but it fixes transaction malleability among other fixes plus it could mean some pump to its price... so why not? Litecoin has nothing to lose and something to gain. Also, the threshold for Segwit activation in Litecoin is 75% instead of 95% as in Bitcoin. |
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I have a hard time believing he does not realize that Layer 2 solutions will result in increased fees for miners, not decreased.
i think providing a test version or thorough demonstration of some of this second layer stuff would clear a lot of things up and maybe open enough eyes. i've read a bunch about lightning networks. i still don't really know what it'll mean for the average user or miner. maybe what the miners are objecting to is voting for something that very few people actually know anything about. everyone knows what a bigger block does, or rather the theory of them, as long it doesn't break bitcoin. i'm sure there'd be some unintended effects with them too. For the average user: - Alternative to use either on-chain transactions (just as now) or side-chain ones. - When using side-chain/LN/L2 whatever: Lower fees and, most importantly, INSTANT transactions/payments. FOr the miners: - On launch.. mostly the same revenue from fees as now. - Once the market develops, maybe a bit higher fees and, more important, as Bitcoin grows the price should do so = higher revenue from mined coins. Also, nothing stops mining pools/miners to run L2 hubs as a side business. |
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I am speculating on miners finally coming back to their senses and start signaling for segwit activation. The ball is now on Jihan BU's court.
i believe that's unlikely myself. until recently most miners didn't signal for anything other than the status quo. what do you think would convince him to do so? Several factors: - He has made an strategically wrong move when he decided to start signaling BU making him personally (and ANTMINER) in the focus of this mess. Now all the darts are going to him instead of CORE. He is considered responsible of this situation and everyone is expecting him to solve the mess he has created. And BU is no solution but a bigger mess (as recent bugs and horrible public opinion is demonstrating). If a HF occurs because of BU, he will be the scapegoat. SO he better avoid it now. - Unless he is much more insane and obtuse than I would think he is, he should realise he has much more to gain making himself the SOLUTION of this deadlock instead of the problem. He could even be the "hero" if he know how to "sell" it. - He can hold for some time his mined coins, then start signaling for segwit, then sell after the big spike upwards (=profit). - The status quo was, until recently, the logical position as miners. For them it is better 1MB blocksize than higher blocksize. When they say otherwise they are just lying. But 1MB is not sustainable anymore, not for much longer. - BU is not gonna happen. Not after the recent events. - CORE is not going to increase the blocksize just now. Not BEFORE Segwit. - There is a high probability that Litecoin will activate Segwit soon. Increasing the chances that Bitcoin follows next. So... Only logical outcome is Segwit, and if that's gonna happen, it's better to be a promoter than keep fighting against it. |
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And that's because I think it is unlikely the scaling problem won't be addressed. The situation is already heated enough as to assume it will be addressed before end of year. If it wasn't then we would have a real problem.
or you could look at it the other way and perceive that a fork back down is an endorsement for core to carry on as they are. they can point to their solution and say the only thing holding it back is miners. those miners will also know that forcing through a fork ain't gonna go down well. more deadlock. i really hope not though. I am speculating on miners finally coming back to their senses and start signaling for segwit activation. The ball is now on Jihan BU's court. |
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Long term downtrend in case of the scaling not being addressed is unlikely. We are still talking about the biggest, most secure and most proven blockchain. The bitcoin project will definitely become more valuable in the upcoming years.
And that's because I think it is unlikely the scaling problem won't be addressed. The situation is already heated enough as to assume it will be addressed before end of year. If it wasn't then we would have a real problem. |
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