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21  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 22, 2019, 05:28:46 PM
meh

BAKKT is a giant nothingburger

in the long run it is a big thing. i wouldn´t underestimate jeffrey sprecher. pushing innovation was how he made it to the top.
22  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 22, 2019, 05:13:20 PM
We never closed below the 137 daily MA during the 2017 bull run.  

Right now, we are immediately above the 137 daily MA.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/cRczS3t.pnimg]


Zoomed in

[img]https://i.imgur.com/EwrQrUa.pnmg]

We are also getting down to the pointy end of the pennant

[img]https://i.imgur.com/3LGdGTa.pnmg]

And volatility as shown by Bollinger band width in the middle bar is way down

[img]https://i.imgur.com/x0riuS2.pnimg]

When volatility falls very low, it means Bitcoin is winding up for a big move.

What does this all mean?  I am not entirely certain whether we will go up or down, but we are primed for a big explosive move.  The move will probably happen around the Bakkt launch on Monday, and will be preceded by a fake out in the other direction.  

Bullish factors:

* We are in an overall bull market driven by the halvening. Accordingly any bear attacks should be blunted and relatively short lived.  The halvening is only 8 months away.

* There is a fear in the market that Bitcoin will collapse after Bakkt release like it collapsed after the CME and CBOE.  If we all find that Bitcoin does not collapse this week, this may lead to a relief rally.

Neutral factors:

* Daily RSI is at neutral, giving us lots of room to move in either direction.

Bearish factors:

*We are sitting on the 137 MA daily.  There is a “rule” that Bitcoin cannot close below the 137 MA daily. Rules in TA are made to be broken.  Closing below 137 MA daily would make a nice scare for the bears.

*The 2015 fractal tells us we are still running hot and high.  The current price is around the forecast price at halvening.  This suggests we need to take some heat out of the market still.


[img]https://i.imgur.com/t4okqLt.pn/img]

Conclusion:

Next week is likely to be punctuated by shenanigans and big moves. I remain overall bullish but also short term cautious.  We should expect to break out of the pennant in both directions before finally deciding which way we will go.  




great post, sounds all plausible. regarding the highlighted part it could be argued that not the entire market is in fear. lots of people actually expect the price to go up when bakkt launches. imho, if prices does not make a noticeable pull upwards then panic will set in and price tanks. overall i am expecting a darth maul daily candle monday.


edited



23  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 11, 2019, 04:49:51 PM
Domino's Pizza Launches $100K Bitcoin Prize Competition in France

Game is active from Sept. 4 till Oct. 6
According to a company’s tweet on Sept. 6, Domino's Pizza France initiated the 100,000 euro give away on the occasion of its 30th anniversary.

Started on Sept. 4, the contest will allow buyers to participate in games while ordering pizzas from Domino's until Oct. 2, while purchase registration will be available till Oct. 6, according to the campaign’s website.

As noted in the competition rules, the amount awarded in Bitcoin will have a value of 100,000 euro calculated according to the exchange rate on the day of purchase of Bitcoin by the organizer of the game if the winner picks BTC.

Eventually, Domino's Pizza plans to transfer the Bitcoin prize to the winner’s wallet on Dec. 16, 2019, according to the rules.


news source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/dominos-pizza-launches-100k-bitcoin-prize-competition-in-france

that is fkn amazing.
24  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 10, 2019, 09:30:52 PM
who bought at the top?


who sold the dip?
25  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 10, 2019, 08:36:58 PM
True Bitcoiners do not think in terms of 'cashing out'.

 Cheesy merited.






and true bitcoiners wouldn´t constantly shill this ongoing "crypto" embarrassment called btrash/bsv
26  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Der Aktuelle Kursverlauf on: September 10, 2019, 07:57:39 AM

Das letzte grosse Verbotsbeispiel war der Shutdown von Liberty Reserve. Wenn genügend illegales Verhalten über genügend viele Länder passiert, dann wird zusammen durchgegriffen, egal welche Technologie darunter wirkt.

https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberty_Reserve


liberty reserve war ja auch kein technologischer durchbruch.
27  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Der Aktuelle Kursverlauf on: September 10, 2019, 07:55:44 AM
seit fast 200 jahren beruht unsere zivilisation auf immer neueren technologien.

Fehlen da nicht mind. drei Nullen. Ohne die Technologie des Steinwerkzeugs wären wir niemals zum Bitcoin gekommen  Grin


stimmt natürlich, technologie ist kein phänomen der moderne. aber erst seit die technologische entwicklung diesen flotten dreier mit dem kapitalismus und der wissenschaft veranstaltet, krempelt sie das leben aller in immer schnelleren schüben um.
28  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 06, 2019, 08:13:58 PM
These 6% dumps are getting really annoying. What is this? Bitmex shorters? Weak hands harvesting 1% profits? This is probably the 20th time in the last 3 months. Geez, these guys can't wait 3-4 days for 100% profit. I mean without those dumps the price should have been at least 20K by now.

yeah, you watch the price creeping up for an entire week and then it starts to accelerate und you smile everytime you check your mobile and then you watch again like in 10 minutes and BOOM... the entire week wiped out.

on the other hand: last time (2017) price went from $8k to 20k within 20 days. better to take it slowly this time, so it can spike higher later. would be great to stay above $10k.
29  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 06, 2019, 02:25:00 PM
https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1169815776733220866?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

1 billion dollars... moved easily, securely and without any third party. Bitcoin really is amazing

Sweet mother of god! I wonder what this pile of btc will be worth after the halving/next parabolic rise  Cool


A lot more Wink

The person processing the transaction surely had HUGE balls - one wrong digit or number and bye bye billion   Grin


no, bitcoin is foolproof. if you put in a wrong digit or letter you end up with an invalid address to which you cannot send funds. and the chances that you are hitting a valid address by mistake are smaller than you personally winning every lottery on earth for the next 20 years.  punching in digit by digit is safe. copy&paste is a different story.

bitcoin protocol has this checksum feature . ETH doesn´t. i know because i had sent 40 ETH to a non existing address.  Undecided





30  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 06, 2019, 02:09:07 PM
Big time resistance coming up around 11.2kish




weird. when i pull up the bitstamp btc/usd chart and connect the top wicks from june and july 10th it shows a fakeout early august but right now we have broken the downwards trendline. could be another fakeout of course.
on log scale btw.
31  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Der Aktuelle Kursverlauf on: September 06, 2019, 01:55:42 PM

Das doch völlig wumpe... so oder so wird der Bitcoiin in den nächsten 10 Jahren bei 1 Mio USD stehen...


Es könnte auch ein globales Bitcoin Verbot kommen. Weil bei der nächsten Finanzkrise die Kapitalflucht in den Bitcoin zum Problem für die Zentralbanker und die Politiker wird. Dann wird zu erst eine gigantische Schmutzkampagne gegen Bitcoin gefahren, z.b. übles spekulations Objekte, das Wirtschaftskrisen auslöst, welches darüber hinaus der Terrorismus Finanzierung dient, und nur für Kinderpornos und von Drogen Dealer im Darknet benutzt wird, etc.

Bei Bitcoin ist alles möglich, auch ein Bitcoin Verbot. Obwohl ich glaube, dass Bitcoin "too Big to fail" ist, seitdem die grossen Jungs an der Wallstreet die ganzen BTC-Finanzprodukte herausgegeben haben. Auf der anderen Seite haben die Wallstreet Boys keine Loyalität gegenüber ihren Finanzprodukten und pressen die Zitrone bis zum letzten Tropfen aus, um sie danach wegzuwerfen. Auch das könnte den Bitcoin zum Fall bringen.


bitcoin ist eine neue technologie. seit wann werden neue technologien verboten? (ausser im bereich massenvernichtungswaffen oder menschen klonen)

seit fast 200 jahren beruht unsere zivilisation auf immer neueren technologien. welche technologien wurden denn bereits weltweit verboten?
32  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2019, 02:52:05 PM
Well wishes to V8 and your family, may your wife receive the best care possible and go into remission.


Indeed my best wishes are always with you V8



same from me. keep the faith.
33  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 17, 2019, 09:13:28 AM
Naaaah you good man (@mindrust)

Keep speaking your mind/thought cause thats why we are here for

And if people would think wrong or wouldn’t like what you think, Then thats there problem!



Of course, Mic, nobody is forbidding anyone from speaking. Obviously not even neo-nazis like r0ach, unfortunately. But there are people who may be tempted to use their reputation to imprint fear in the others (which is a definition of FUD). How we can recognized it? If that person starts with something like "Bad news" when there is no news, or makes a bearish predicition which he repeats... I don't know, may be 10 times or more in the last 6 months. And if he openly admits that he missed the oportunity to buy at some price. Then it is obvious to me that we should not be influended by his dramatic chart analysis. That's all.

May be they are wonderful persons in real life, but not everyone is so good like you Mic to give prizes and encourage others with the best possible advices. I've became a convinced hodler because of people like you, JJG, 600Watt, LFC Bitcoin, etc.... I mean, my ideas, education, understanding about Bitcoin meet completely theirs. Not because I believed the gloom and doom predictions. So my mission is to say openly the truth and encourage all to turn their back to the panic selling or waiting for unreal low prices because of trolling, FUD, etc.

And as for lambie and mindrust, I believe they need some time to develop the right thinking. In this respect I said they are new to the Bitcoin world. Others learn faster. I needed only 10 months in the midst of all the fork and Chinese ban drama to develop my thinking and mental resilience both in losing and winning periods. But not everyone is the same. The problem is that the time is limited. And if someone is on the wrong track, soon he will miss the last oportunity for a massive profit.

ivomm, i mostly like your posts. but here, regarding mindrust and lambie, you went on the wrong boat. it is a bit weird to suggest seasoned hodlers like mindrust they need to change their thinking.
re read his posts, i don´t think he is a bear at all. let´s not get into strange fights, we are in the same team. please consider to apologize and let us move on.
34  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 17, 2019, 08:56:10 AM





This is even worse than the pizza guy. Most people don't know who he his, this guy made a tweet which went viral with his face. It's still growing to this day:

https://twitter.com/gregschoen/status/70261648811761665

I would never be able to sleep at night ever again. The moral of the story is of course and as always: HODL, at any rate.


i want to print this wall sized and put it on the ceiling of my sleeping room. will be the first and last thing to read every day. puts things in perspective.
35  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 17, 2019, 08:43:21 AM

I do see scenarios where Bitcoin (be it BTC, BSV, or BCH) becomes the reserve currency, but given current state and rate of current trends, less likely. At least in the short term.

As far as interest rates? Repudiated debt does not carry interest.

i got it now. all those years you were trying to entertain us. good joke, i giggled.
36  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 17, 2019, 08:32:39 AM
Sorry to interrupt, but can someone please let me know if I should be panicking at this point, because, TBH, I'm seriously, SERIOUSLY thinking of just tuning out anything Bitcoin related until after the halvening and just focus on IRL stuff for a while.

Think I'm finally finding a good IRL routine that is keeping me somewhat entertained and productive. Starting to really get the hang of this retirement thing.

Watching Bitcoin tank like it is, just makes me sad. I don't need it until 2021-ish anyway...

Bah. Someone hold me. No homo.


Tune the fuck out.  You don't seem to be able to handle it anyhow.  These are normal BTC price movements, including 20%, 30% and sometimes even 50% corrections during a bull market, and you keep wanting to panic from these kinds of normal BTC price movements.

Yeah, Bob chill out man. You’ve been through a couple of bitcoin cycles now so you know what to expect. I’m the same, I panic sometimes but look at the bigger picture. You’re already independently wealthy, I can promise you that you’ll be a lot richer at the end of 2021. Everything before then is just noise. The halvening will do what it always does - Limit the supply & with increased demand comes higher prices.

Moon by the end of 2021!

Smile!

hodling btc is not easy. especially when you doing for years and years. seems to me that lots of hodlers (including myself) from time to time get really stressed out about it. the volatility. the FUD. waking up in the morning and you need to check charts on mobile to make sure you did not get broke overnight. almost no one to talk to about it, except the brotherhood of WO. msmedia painting btc as "terrorist/drug money". all the scams. all the shitcoins. how much is enough? hodling is a 24/7 job and it does not forgive weak moments. it changes the hodlers mind.
bob, you did everything right. be proud.
stay strong folks.
37  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 17, 2019, 07:49:55 AM
Guys, I've decided to give my alter ego, r0ach, a vacation. I'll be posting with this account for a while.

let us hope he is using the famous never-come-back-airline  Tongue
38  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 16, 2019, 09:57:00 AM
Not that anyone here necessarily needs to read this article but you have friends and relatives that do, and it's a fun bullish as hell read...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/matthougan/2019/08/15/how-to-understand-bitcoin-if-youre-over-40/#733ecac647a5


i like the general idea of this article. however, die author still thinks eth is a real thing (and not the obvoius scam it really is).
39  Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 100 days for Bitcoin on: August 16, 2019, 09:52:42 AM
wow, dropped from #48 to out of top 100 in 6 days ($). has it ever done that this quickly?

I've no idea, sorry. My guess would be that it hasn't.

 Cheesy
you might be right.

40  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Der Aktuelle Kursverlauf on: August 16, 2019, 09:45:31 AM

Das sehe ich etwas anders

das finde ich super. wären alle der gleichen überzeugung wie ich, wäre ich niemals so günstig an die bitcoins herangekommen.

Quote
imho ist der Kurs selbstverständlich durch die Jahre hindurch gestiegen, da hast du recht. Aber im Durchschnitt eben nur sehr langsam

von 0 auf 10k in 10 jahren ist nicht langsam. es gibt leute, die behaupten, btc sei die beste spekulative anlage der finanzgeschichte und damit meinen die die performance.

Quote
und die Ausreisser erreichen nur neue ATH's, wenn der durchschnittliche Kurs zwischen zwei Ausreissern auch gestiegen ist und eine gutes Fundament für eine Spitze nach oben bildet.

das wird auch dieses mal wieder so sein. deine logik verstehe ich nicht. der letzte bärenmarkt hat von ath zu ath 4 jahre gedauert. damit der durchschnittliche wert steigen kann muss der kurs steigen. das hat er seit februar gemacht. natürlich nicht gleich zu einem neuen ath, da muss es schon ein paar higher lows geben. wenn dein argument stimmig wäre, dann könnte sich der kurs aus einem bärenmarkt nie befreien.

Quote
Und zwischen den letzten beiden Ausreissern nach oben ist der durchschnittliche Kurs eben nicht so stark gestiegen.


das geht in einem bärenmarkt doch auch garnicht anders. du hättest deine posts auch nach dem ende des letzten bärenmarktes (2014-2017) anbringen können. und damals wäre das genauso falsch gewesen. wie ich schon beschrieben habe, sind wir 2015 auch von den tiefen eines mehrjährigen bärenmarktes zu fast der hälfte des ath hochgeschnellt. und dann wieder runter.

Quote
Warum sollte sich eine noch intensivere Tulpenblase bilden, wenn die Leute sich noch an die letzte erinnern und der eigentliche Wert der Tulpe immer noch gleich ist? Wenn Tulpen heute doppelt so gross wären, pro Zwiebel 5 Blumen daraus wachsen würden und drei Jahre lang goldfarben blühen würden... ja, dann wäre eine noch viel intensivere Tulpenblase vorprogrammiert. Aber mit den selben Tulpen wie anno dazumals wohl kaum, oder erst, wenn die letzte Blase in Vergessenheit geriet.

tulpenblase? TULPENBLASE? jetzt ernsthaft? weil es keine ist?  tulpenblase bedeutet einmal rauf und dann einmal runter, das war´s. wie alle grossen blasen. ja, frag dich das mal, wieso das bei bitcoin immer wieder passiert. nochmal: weil es keine ist. ziemlich volatiler preisfindungsprozess einer revolutionären neuen anlageklasse, einer finanziellen revolution. revolutionen sind selten geordnet und gradlinig.
das "tulpenblasenargument" war ja 2013 noch echt ein ding. aber spätestens seit 2017 traut sich das niemand mehr auszupacken und mit gutem grund.

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