is it december all over again? wtf? edit: i promised myself to be humble when there is another rise. not to flip out. not to laugh about bears. not to brag about my virtual gains. but ... but ... hard to humble. edited 20x  |
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the panic sellers that didn´t want to slide down in agony with their live savings a second time around after nov.2013 are now getting the FOMO. some of them may have left btc for good, but most of them were just scared. they will jump back the closer it gets to their prior sell level.
because for a bitcoiner it is painful to see a 30% drop in price. but it is much more pain to even lose some btc when it rises again , and they haven´t bought back in.
so expect more of those 5% upward jumps. fuck yeah.
edit: $870/Y6000 will be resistance for a while, tough.
edit2: it was resistance for about 3 minutes, lol
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if vinny nailed that one i will write him a letter to express my admiration. it is, of course, way too soon to tell since there could still be a slide down to the $700s but he might as well be right: I seriously doubt we'll ever see Bitcoin in the $700's ever again, unless there is some major external event that occurs. respect. |
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Mal wieder ne kleine Bullenfalle?
Na logisch, warte einfach mal ne Woche, die Bullen freuen sich doch über jeden kleinen Hüpfer. moment mal. woher wusstest du dass ich das wort "hüpfer" benutzen würde beim editieren? lol. |
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Mal wieder ne kleine Bullenfalle?
longterm ist bitcoin eine einzige riesige bärenfalle.  edit: endlich mal wieder mit einem ordentlichen rise aufgewacht. 820 € sieht gut aus. das hatten wir zuletzt an weihnachten. noch 6 solche hüpfer und wir sind wieder bei 1000 €. hop hop hop hop hop hop |
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Let's see where the support is now.  the next 24 dumps are critical. The next several hours (from now) are critical. If we'll have more dumps and test (might even break) support at 5200 CNY, even if it will bounce, a very bearish scenario would become possible. If however there will be a small pump (that would hold for a while), then further support testing is unlikely to break and should result in a large triangle that should break upwards, with target around 8000 CNY. The small pump happened, so far seems to favor the bullish scenario. But remember, the PBoC can trash the bullish TA anytime. my speculation about the what happened: 1)when chinese exchanges hit new ath a cascade of naked shorts and fucked up max leverage setup caused the first dive. okcoin and others couldn´t handle the traffic anymore, traders couldn´t log in, fortunes lost. 2)some of those traders are high ranking members of the communist party (or their kids). they called papa or mama and cried because the got goxed by okcoin. 3)high ranking party leaders grabbed the phone and called PBOC to do something. 4)PBOC stepped in not to ban bitcoin, but to safe bitcoin (well, safe the crypto kids from getting goxed again - no more naked shorts, no more 100x leverage) 5)media learns about PBOC visiting all chines exchanges; bitcoin community gets the buzz words PBOC, chinese exchanges panicking nightmare of 2013 OMG SELL ALL THE COINS causing the: 6)second dive. 7)everyone freaks out because of 2nd dive. fears of 14month uptrend reversed in a few days. btc FUD spin doctors step in OMG sell all teh coins: 8)third dive 9)slowly the community begins to realize that china did not ban bitcoin. edit: |
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Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?
i always thought it could be until may. now i think august or september. Do you mean august/september 2018, or august/september 2019? 2017 |
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stamp, btc-e, finex und huobi -- alle zwischen 800 und 813 $.
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Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?
i always thought it could be until may. now i think august or september. |
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30k btc to be sold is surely not doing any good to the price. on the other hand on bitstamp alone 35k btc have been dumped on jan.5th. and another 27k next day. bitstamp has a market share of less then 0.2% (the real market share value is surely higher due to fake volume on chinese exchanges)
edit: missing word
edit2: i noticed your bearish posts lately. at least you make it clear that you have a short position.
Sorry I have never shorted bitcoin. I can also make a good case that we have just finished an abc Elliott Wave correction and should resume upward trajectory soon with a price projection for Primary Wave 3 of $1800. Here is a preliminary chart, when I have some time I will write up a full article on my Elliott Wave count for bitcoin.  Need to make sure the bottom is really in at $735 on Bitfinex first. please excuse my incorrect assumption then. your knowledge about the topic is much greater than mine. |
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Let's see where the support is now. the next 24 dumps are critical. |
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wird wohl eher darauf hinauslaufen, dass du deine bitcoins einfach bei der bank aufbewahren kannst. nachteil: sie sind pfändbar, vorteil: du muss dich nicht drum sorgen. sie werden ersetzt, wenn die bank gehackt wird. sowas wie ein aktiendepot. kostet dann einen gewissen prozentsatz der einlage pro jahr.
jede bitcoinbörse macht das ja eigentlich schon, wie ne bank im wilden westen. damals wars auch so, dass dein geld weg war, wenn die bank ausgeraubt wurde.
wir sind also in der bitcoin-wild-west zeit.
wenn ich demnach vorstelle, was noch alles auf uns zu kommt, mann mann mann...
was z.b. die deutsche bank macht ist doch genauso "wild west" - ahnungslosen leuten wertlosen mist andrehen, gebühren abziehen als gäbe es kein morgen, weltweit in kriminelle aktivitäten verstrickt sein, in alle vorstellbaren und unvorstellbaren manipulationen verstrickt sein, viele tausend (sic!) gerichtsverfahren als angeklagte partei weltweit. ---- und dafür auch milliarden boni an die oberen etagen verteilen. das ist wild west. oder raubrittertum. eine weltweit operierende kriminelle vereinigung. noch nicht lange her, da hat der boss dieser organisation seinen geburtstag im kanzleramt gefeiert und was von 25% rendite geblubbert. die kennen keine scham. |
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The big three Chinese exchanges (OKCoin, Huobi, and BTCC) have all disabled margin trading for all clients onshore in China. This is in response to the recent on-site “inspections” (aka Ride The Red Dildo) by the PBOC. With margin trading eliminated, the question remains what happens with existing leveraged positions. If the PBOC forces the exchanges to unwind all positions, that will negatively impact the price. The CNY spot book of each exchange is a combination of leveraged and unleveraged traders. The ratio of leveraged longs to shorts is of interest. If the net leveraged positioning is long, that means a combination of leveraged shorts and long sells were matched against them. Given that we just witnessed a new all time high in the CNY price of Bitcoin, I estimate leveraged longs outnumber leveraged shorts. In the event of a margin call, as the exchange unwinds both sides, the net effect will be a drop in price. The magnitude of the drop depends on the size of the imbalance. 30% initial margin (3.33x leverage) was the normal amount of margin offered. The collateral will be exhausted if the price moves 30% below or above the entry price of longs and shorts respectively. Given that the exchanges themselves lent funds to speculators, should the price move further than 30% they would suffer a principal loss. For illustration purposes, assume that the long / short ratio is 100 XBT / 50 XBT. The 50 XBT shortfall was provided by long sellers of Bitcoin. If the book was unwound, 50 XBT would need to be sold into the order-book. Hopefully, the order-book liquidity is sufficient such that the average execution price is no lower than 30% (the initial margin) below the average entry price of all long positions. However, now that margin is removed, the actual liquidity will be substantially lower. If the margin positions were to be unwound, it would happen at the worst possible time. Some white knight whale would need to fully fund purchases of Bitcoin as it was dumped onto the market. Last week the BitMEX Bitcoin / USD 100x leveraged swap, XBTUSD, traded a record of nearly 100,000 XBT over a 24-hour period. The actual open interest fluctuated between 10-20x lower than the recorded trading volume. Given that trading fees are 0 in China, I estimate open interest is 100x lower than recorded trading volumes. The big three exchanges routinely traded around 5 million Bitcoin per day during the recent pump. Using a 100x divisor, assume that each exchange’s actual open interest of loans is 50,000 XBT. Also assume that longs represent 60% of that total, and shorts 40%. That leaves a net 10,000 Bitcoin of required selling on each exchange. 30,000 Bitcoin in total must be sold across all the exchanges. The differentiations between the exchanges is quite small, which means that they all have the same customers. It is also the same handful of market makers responsible for all the liquidity in China. As trades happen on OKCoin, liquidity will be removed from Huobi and BTCC simultaneously. Therefore, we cannot sum all the liquidity offered by each exchange. 30,000 Bitcoin is worth 268 million CNY. That is not chump change when you consider all purchases must be fully funded. If we take the most liquid order-book (OKCoin), how low would the price go if 30,000 Bitcoin were dumped? Each day brings new developments on how the PBOC is constricting business operations of Chinese Bitcoin exchanges. The Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) will depress buyer appetite further decreasing on-exchange liquidity. The pace of the forced margin call dictated by the PBOC will determine how far the price dips. I haven’t performed any extensive analysis on the order-book depth but my finger in the air estimation is a 10% to 15% drawdown from current levels. Hence my short term price target for Bitcoin is $650. If and when the PBOC forces a China Bitcoin margin call, it will be an amazing buying opportunity. Without leverage, the only marginal sellers are Chinese miners. After the plunge, the marginal demand for Bitcoin will be higher than the supply offered by miners. The demand for a store of wealth not controlled by a government or central bank remains strong in China. I reiterate my call for USDCNY of 9.00 by the end of 2017. That would take Bitcoin substantially over its recent all time high of 8,895.98 CNY. It is still too early to tell whether the unwinding of margin positions will be orderly or chaotic. Much depends on exchange CEO’s fluffing skills. Get on your knees, boys: for the sake of Bitcoin. reprinted from Bitmex Crypto Trader30k btc to be sold is surely not doing any good to the price. on the other hand on bitstamp alone 35k btc have been dumped on jan.5th. and another 27k next day. bitstamp has a market share of less then 0.2% (the real market share value is surely higher due to fake volume on chinese exchanges) edit: missing word edit2: i noticed your bearish posts lately. at least you make it clear that you have a short position. |
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Mhmmm, dat wird aber den Chinesen auch wieder nicht gefallen. Hat da die PBoC sich ins Knie geballert? die chinesische staatsdiktatur hat diesmal verhindert, dass ein(e) neue(r) blase/hype entstehen konnte. sie haben im entstehen des nächsten hype eingeriffen indem sie die chinesischen börsen regulieren/einschränken. die hintergründe sind unklar. reine spekulation. vielleicht hat auch ein chinesischer funktionär gemeint, er muss das volk vor käufen von zu hoch bewerteten bitcoins schützen und sich das von oben absegnen lassen. aber alles reine spekulation. nach und nach werden die elemente eliminiert welche hypes begünstigen. wir kommen in seriösere fahrwässer was die bewertung des wertes eines Bitcoins betrifft. das wird eine lange geschichte. "TOO DAA MOOOON" is dead, IMO.
Skalierung und Privatsphäre (out of the box) sind die themen welche zu lösen sind in den nächsten monaten (jahren?). danach kommt eventuell mal 4-stellig und vielleicht sogar 5-stellig. jetzt nur noch 100% Steigerung p.a. ??  |
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wär das nice, wenn wir jetzt dieses unselige absteigende dreieick durchbrechen könnten, in dem wir seit dem 05. stecken. spannend.
 nu hör doch mal auf mein neues Fiat trifft erst nächste Woche ein. Jetzt ist noch Kriese. Wir werden alle sterben und die europäischen Kontinente brechen auseinander wenn wir jetzt nicht machen was die Regierung sagt. Dein voriger Beitrag war auch schon so sympathisch. Ich sags nur ungern, aber ich mag dich. dann waren die 4000 posts ja doch für was gut.  |
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 Nearing the top of the descending wedge. I'm expecting more down. If wrong, I'd expect a breakout of the trendline to be both violent and large. huobi @5700. broke the wedge. let´s hope for good. still too tiny. edit: not broken on finex. not on stamp. we need $850+ for that. |
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wär das nice, wenn wir jetzt dieses unselige absteigende dreieick durchbrechen könnten, in dem wir seit dem 05. stecken. spannend.
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den thread könnte man ohne weiteres in "kulturpessimismus für fortgeschrittene" umbenennen und viele posts wären on topic.  (damit meine ich ausdrücklich nicht aussagen zur lage des weltfinanzsystems. denn wegen dessen lage sind wir ja alle hier. "chancellor on the brink of second bailout for banks" steht ja nicht umsonst im genesis block.) |
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auf stamp wurden seit dem peak fast 200 000 btc verkauft. viele von denen wollen sicher wieder "rein". am besten mit ein bisserl profit. ab wann, denkt ihr, geht das los? ab 900 $ ? ab 950 $ ? schon vorher?
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