Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Chainsaw]

Hey, I've just noticed a pattern that this crash fits into, but it's only visible at very long range.

...

When the pressure-relief gasket blows on these bubbles it always corrects to just below the top of the previous propellor pattern. Same every time but increasing in size. Then there's a period of consolidation, followed by a slow rise, then steep rise and another gasket-blow.

Keep in mind that this pattern will hold so long as our bottom rests anywhere between $789.78 (Finex) and the previous bottom, at $504, changing only the slope.  The cup-and-handle scenario does not violate this scenario, and is extremely bullish.

I'd still love to see fear trigger a bit more of an overreaction to the downside. Rather than cause technical damage, I see short-term down as the fastest path to rally resumption.  

A Chinese New Year's formal announcement by the PBOC, assuaging go-forward fears...that's my dream scenario. I figure if we get some sort of sudden, positive external event like that, we are more likely to resume the rally in the short term. Conversely, if we simply exhaust, the (stronger) consolidative base would rise more slowly over the coming months.

[becoin]

i think its doubtful PBOC will order all positions to be closed within a 24 hour period... from what i hear they want to bring an element of stability and health to the bitcoin market, they want things to be done right... not be the source of investors losing there shirt...

You're wrong! Don't get fooled by narratives about PBOC "consumer protection" worries! They've stepped in because bitcoin price increased 200% in a short amount of time. If Bitcoin price have decreased instead PBOC would have never intervened to protect investors!

[the artful bodger]

i think its doubtful PBOC will order all positions to be closed within a 24 hour period... from what i hear they want to bring an element of stability and health to the bitcoin market, they want things to be done right... not be the source of investors losing there shirt...

You're wrong! Don't get fooled by narratives about PBOC "consumer protection" worries! They've stepped in because bitcoin price increased 200% in a short amount of time. If Bitcoin price have decreased instead PBOC would have never intervened to protect investors!

What about Mr Ding getting locked out of his Huobi account while he had 1638 leveraged bitcoins force margin called? Almost all leveraged Huobi traders got wiped out like him because Huobi wouldn't let them log in, and Huobi refuses to compensate them. The PBOC had to do something, or look ineffectual.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still consolidating with almost no price change... $821USD (Bitcoinaverage). Not much volume either.

Hopefully the PBOC inspection panic is done and we can get back to normal growth.

[ErisDiscordia]

Bumping against the 4h EMA all weekend long...will it break down again?

I predict a violent move within the next 6 hours. No idea about direction.

[Killerpotleaf]

I look forward to showing my support again sub 800

[Tzupy]

Let's see where the support is now.

the next 24 dumps are critical.

The next several hours (from now) are critical. If we'll have more dumps and test (might even break) support at 5200 CNY, even if it will bounce, a very bearish scenario would become possible.
If however there will be a small pump (that would hold for a while), then further support testing is unlikely to break and should result in a large triangle that should break upwards, with target around 8000 CNY.

[the artful bodger]

[bitebits]

^ Don't know anything about TA and chicken bones, but I know what that means in the Wall Observer thread: something is about to happen.

[K~Ehleyr]

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

[600watt]

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

i always thought it could be until may. now i think august or september.

[the artful bodger]

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

i always thought it could be until may. now i think august or september.

Do you mean august/september 2018, or august/september 2019?

[K~Ehleyr]

I figured May too, but then I'm very much a newbie to looking at these charts.  I'd say this May earliest, but it could be as late as then end of 2018.  I'll be disappointed if the handle has to extend into 2019 before we get our almighty surge to the cosmos...

[600watt]

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

i always thought it could be until may. now i think august or september.

Do you mean august/september 2018, or august/september 2019?

2017

[the artful bodger]

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

i always thought it could be until may. now i think august or september.

Do you mean august/september 2018, or august/september 2019?

2017

I studied the times between the previous two highs, and speculate we get another spectacular in about 5.5 to 7.5 months.

[abz99]

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

i always thought it could be until may. now i think august or september.

Do you mean august/september 2018, or august/september 2019?

2017

I studied the times between the previous two highs, and speculate we get another spectacular in about 5.5 to 7.5 months.

Recent price action was perfectly aligned with the Fibo Time Zone. From my point of view November 2017 is the next possible climax http://zentrade.online/bitcoin-price-action-update-20170113/

[K~Ehleyr]

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

i always thought it could be until may. now i think august or september.

Do you mean august/september 2018, or august/september 2019?

2017

I studied the times between the previous two highs, and speculate we get another spectacular in about 5.5 to 7.5 months.

Recent price action was perfectly aligned with the Fibo Time Zone. From my point of view November 2017 is the next possible climax http://zentrade.online/bitcoin-price-action-update-20170113/

Nice!  I wonder to what extent analysis like that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, as traders work towards the expectation of that climax at that time....

[Killerpotleaf]

you guys are so bearish.

this is a bear trap and it will close...eventually but not 6 months from now...

[savetherainforest]

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

So... from my calculations... its supposed to go somewhere at a bottom of 666. But...







I don't think that will happen.


if it is another handle... lower than 750$ would be a ridiculous low number. And a better, more realistic expectation would be a bull trend for now with +10-15$ per week from now on.  

[gembitz]

break above $850 we could see something ...