Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[0xfff]

I never regret hodling my coins. I just wait for price to go back up. Nothing lost today.   Very good for me  

[Miz4r]

Margin trading + 0 fees = inflated volume and sickening volatility like we've seen on OKC and Huobi. Now we're going to back to more balanced figures. Don't think this is bearish immediately, as people might be afraid to sell their real coins now instead of borrowing them and then selling. Volatility is very likely to go down though, which could be bullish. But it is also unlikely we'll see $1000+ very soon again without crazy leveraged Chinese traders giving the price an extra push. Probably this is good for the volume on western exchanges as traders move back from Huobi and OKC for margin trading. So all in all I think this is a good thing, it's not very good to have the Chinese exchanges take up too much of the overall Bitcoin trading volume. Doesn't mean we've seen the bottom yet though of this correction. Personally I find it too dangerous to sell now, a quick move back up to $900 is in the cards and could happen at any time imo.

[molecular]

A possible 10x drop in Chinese volume, how do you think that would look? Bullish?

a 10x drop of something that never really existed. getting rid of an irrelevancy is a good thing in the long run.

1.) not sure the volume will drop that dramatically. They still charge 0% fee, right? They still lower withdraw fees based on trading volume, no?

2.) for those who take the chinese volume figures for what they are (inflated), a drop in those due to regulation should not be viewed as problematic

of course there are always those who misinterpret things and those people can move the market, I give you that. But I doubt it will be a factor.

[petahashminer]

that margin trading is the number one reason of that bitcoin volatility since 2015..

lots of people scared of volatility of bitcoin.

if margin trading stops as stated above, this will be a bullish news for all community.

[molecular]

that margin trading is the number one reason of that bitcoin volatility since 2015..

lots of people scared of volatility of bitcoin.

if margin trading stops as stated above, this will be a bullish news for all community.

there's plenty offers outside china

[eddie13]

ZE Jiang(BTC.TOP): Huobi & BTCC stopped margin trading, OKc leverage only 1x, finally no more fake BTC generated by exchange

https://twitter.com/cnLedger/status/819808775032868865

Oh shit, after reading this and realizing the possible implications, I will have to be extra careful after opening a long... Planned to open one in a couple of hours...

What possible implications exactly?

A possible 10x drop in Chinese volume, how do you think that would look? Bullish?

Are we sure this is true? I just checked my huobi account and margin seems to be the same



I figured they were already doing that to me..
Once in a while during big moves it would take my margin availability away in one direction or another..
Or just simply not process my trades :/

... I'm not so convinced that the volatility can be blamed that easily on margin, lol..

If anything, legit margin trading should increase liquidity and decrease volatility..

Now just straight up manipulation of exchanges faking movement, fud news, hype news, blah blah, can definitely cause excess volatility..

[slap]

Eddie, I tought it only accounted for Chinese citizens, so foreigners are still able to trade on margin.
Not sure ocourse. Hope this helps.

[eddie13]

[jman0war]

European Central Bank

What's up with your avatar?
Only the UK is exiting the EU.

Not Ireland.

[Paashaas]

Weekend pump to $850+ woud be fantastic.

Let's continue this bull run, gz to the people who bought at $730+

[Torque]

Same pattern as June/July.

Guys, this is going to bounce hard.  820-830 should be a bottom from this point forward.

I would buy if I had any fiat left. 

Half my standby fiat just went back in at 798.5 - if I could have got into Stamp earlier, I might have nicked it lower.

I hope you're right, Sir - next resistance is probably 5000 CNY level - below that...? Jeez!

Now the the silly dumping is over, I still assert my original prediction.  820 will become the new floor moving forward.

[JayJuanGee]

Today has not been the best day for me. The guy I was gonna trade half a dozen bitcoins with suddenly dropped off the face of the earth, so now I'm stuck with useless fiat instead of cheap coins. Can't get it back on kraken until sometime next week because banks break on weekends (they really need to fix that bug).

[...]

I guess he should hurry then! ... But probably he has a week or so before the price goes mental upwards.

Even though I sometimes get inklings about the short-term direction of price, I never feel very confident about my inklings until after I see it happen.

Therefore, I would not sell my bitcoins in the expectation to use that money to buy from someone who is 10% or so likely to flake (sure flakiness varies, but it is NOT a non-existent or even a low probable risk).

To be honest... there is no cataclysmic event happening soon. And from what it looks, the market is being duped.. So... they can't keep this up for much longer. But I guess the exchanges took enough profits from the stupid leverage gamblers.

But eh.. what do I know? .. I'm a simple man, doing plain right simple trades, that takes small percentages of profits.  

Difficult to know how long they can keep dumping coins... and maybe get others to follow... ?

[savetherainforest]

Today has not been the best day for me. The guy I was gonna trade half a dozen bitcoins with suddenly dropped off the face of the earth, so now I'm stuck with useless fiat instead of cheap coins. Can't get it back on kraken until sometime next week because banks break on weekends (they really need to fix that bug).

[...]

I guess he should hurry then! ... But probably he has a week or so before the price goes mental upwards.

Even though I sometimes get inklings about the short-term direction of price, I never feel very confident about my inklings until after I see it happen.

Therefore, I would not sell my bitcoins in the expectation to use that money to buy from someone who is 10% or so likely to flake (sure flakiness varies, but it is NOT a non-existent or even a low probable risk).

To be honest... there is no cataclysmic event happening soon. And from what it looks, the market is being duped.. So... they can't keep this up for much longer. But I guess the exchanges took enough profits from the stupid leverage gamblers.

But eh.. what do I know? .. I'm a simple man, doing plain right simple trades, that takes small percentages of profits.  

Difficult to know how long they can keep dumping coins... and maybe get others to follow... ?

Well from the post of the other guy above... it looks like no more more leveraged gambling in China. ( Because Chinese are smart! )

And they know that in the long term, the market can't be manipulated in BTCiTcoin and they can't come off as the bad guy to their people when they need to hand out the cash like a bankrupt casino. And exchanges will have to disrupt prices at their own financial risk.  ( I say this because they tried it and they got burned, they saw the financial burden for trying to manipulate just to keep the people happy! )

So basically we are heading towards a pillar of stability in BTCiTcoin wealth!    



*edit:   I might have sounded a bit confusing... So there where 2 manipulators.. the exchange and the China gov. The China gov was trying to keep the price in place and the exchanges was trying to force the hands of faith by forcing the hand of the masses and herding them like sheep in the aggressive / violent moves.



*edit2:   And when saying that exchanges will have to disrupt prices at their own financial risk... I mean that they will have to sell without leverage. Just plain simple trades! Traditional & Honest!  

[Chainsaw]

Nearing the top of the descending wedge.
I'm expecting more down. If wrong, I'd expect a breakout of the trendline to be both violent and large.

[toknormal]

Nearing the top of the descending wedge.
I'm expecting more down. If wrong, I'd expect a breakout of the trendline to be both violent and large.

Looks like your wedge vs my 5200 support line.

I hope your wrong cos I need to pay a few bills and am holding Clambering back up the castle wall - I just hope nobody's waiting with a big bucket of boiling hot tar above.

(P.S. What's the breakout level according to your analysis ?)

[becoin]

Oh shit, after reading this and realizing the possible implications, I will have to be extra careful after opening a long...

You've never had a long position before, Tzupy. What's the matter with you?

[soullyG]

I hope your wrong cos I need to pay a few bills and am holding Clambering back up the castle wall - I just hope nobody's waiting with a big bucket of boiling hot tar above.

I love this mental image!

[DoktorKopf]

This China 'clamp down' is this cycle's equivalent of the Silk Road bust.

At the time many thought it was another death (coz illegalz is all wot its good for), but in fact it cleared the decks for new money: people that had been aware but reluctant to get in because of the perceived criminal monoculture. PBOC now doing similar by actually doing their job (not everything is anti-Bitcoin conspiracy) and being seen to protect the next wave of new money that's hovering around, tempted to invest, in Middle Earth.

Applying retail standards to the markets is necessary for the next wave. The unregulated cowboy traders have had their fun, but Granny Shopkeeper would be mad to trust them with her savings. PBOC cleaning out the stables. so we can gallop to a new dawn. Forward comrades!

[Chainsaw]

Nearing the top of the descending wedge.
I'm expecting more down. If wrong, I'd expect a breakout of the trendline to be both violent and large.

Looks like your wedge vs my 5200 support line.

I hope your wrong cos I need to pay a few bills and am holding Clambering back up the castle wall - I just hope nobody's waiting with a big bucket of boiling hot tar above.

(P.S. What's the breakout level according to your analysis ?)

I threw the above chart together too quickly, and failed to switch to logarithmic view. It affects the top by a few dollars.
It's a descending line so the price goes down over time, but on the 15m chart right now, I got $840.47, Bitfinex.

When we were tossing ideas around yesterday, one (bullish) possibility is that the upper trendline is 'ignored', and a new top is defined on volume. Best case, that would happen to reshape the descending wedge (which is already a bullish reversal) into a descending channel. That would complete the multi-year cup and handle pattern in a more textbook manner.

So overall I think it's a relatively bullish period:
-If we break up, current price is higher and it improves prospects.
-If resistance holds, it reaffirms the pattern and makes a subsequent retest of the low more likely to hold.

[aztecminer]

This China 'clamp down' is this cycle's equivalent of the Silk Road bust.

At the time many thought it was another death (coz illegalz is all wot its good for), but in fact it cleared the decks for new money: people that had been aware but reluctant to get in because of the perceived criminal monoculture. PBOC now doing similar by actually doing their job (not everything is anti-Bitcoin conspiracy) and being seen to protect the next wave of new money that's hovering around, tempted to invest, in Middle Earth.

Applying retail standards to the markets is necessary for the next wave. The unregulated cowboy traders have had their fun, but Granny Shopkeeper would be mad to trust them with her savings. PBOC cleaning out the stables. so we can gallop to a new dawn. Forward comrades!

get ready for the next leg down.. we are going back to $250 bitcoins.