r0ach's Cryptomarkets Watch & Scamcoin Observer

[vuduchyld]

Efficient Market Hypothesis says that The Halvening is already priced in.

Please, no more beginner hypothesis.  The price didn't go up until after halving last time, and if the price didn't increase, then a whole shitload of miners would have to turn their miners off.  What's more likely?  Miners turn their millions of dollars of miners off, taking a large financial hit, or they spend a far lesser amount of money to manipulate the market upwards to keep on profiting.  Nobody is turning off their $100 million dollar mining facilities.  Having a large amount of miners creates a price floor and they will simply stop selling coins at all until the price goes up, or manipuplate it upwards themselves until it's favorable to sell anything.

You might be right.  It's also possible that the price from late August through late September hovered in the range of $230, as compared to $415-ish right now.  Perhaps that manipulation has already taken place or, again has somehow or another been baked in. 

As for the "beginner" ad hominem and consideration of whether or not I am worthy of posting my thoughts/opinions, I'll just chalk that up to internet bawlz.   

[adhitthana]

At any second between now and August there's going to be a nuclear explosion of alts cratering:

Naturally there will be ebbs and flows, but a nuclear explosion?

The thing about cryptos is...no one can really say what the situation will be in a few months time. It is way too unpredictable

[vuduchyld]

And for what it's worth, I'm certainly not discounting your belief that the bottom may well drop out of the alt market.  It very well might happen. From a post I wrote earlier today:

On December 24th, 2015, coinmarketcap showed a BTC market cap of $6.8 billion.  On the 21st, total cap was 7.159 billion and on the 28th it was 7.063 billion.  So if you take out BTC, you had a total alt market cap somewhere in the range of $300,000,000.  

Right now, total cap is $8.062 billion.  BTC is actually down from $6.8 billion to $6.4 billion.  Alt market cap has gone from $300,000,000 to $1,600,000,000 in roughly three months.

So if you've made some money in the last three months, it doesn't mean you're picking winners with any proficiency.  It just means you are swimming in the right pond.  But there is no guarantee that will continue to be the case.  Total market cap for alts has grown 5x.  Of that, probably half is just Ethereum.  You can decide for yourself, but think about what that pond looks like over the NEXT 6 months.  And think about the implications if the total alt cap goes back to something like $800,000,000.

Just for the sake of comparison, think about a company like Kellogg.  Good company, lots of history, well-known, but it's nothing like Apple, IBM, GE, Alphabet.  Kellogg has a total market cap of almost $27 billion.  It's more than 3x all cryptos, and more than 15x alts.  It's also about 90x the market cap of EVERYTHING other than BTC in the crypto-universe as of three months ago.

This is a small, relatively illiquid slice of a small market.  Anything can happen.  It's small enough to be subject to manipulation, certainly.  

[cannabanana]

praise jesus

[TPTB_need_war]

And for what it's worth, I'm certainly not discounting your belief that the bottom may well drop out of the alt market.  It very well might happen. From a post I wrote earlier today:

On December 24th, 2015, coinmarketcap showed a BTC market cap of $6.8 billion.  On the 21st, total cap was 7.159 billion and on the 28th it was 7.063 billion.  So if you take out BTC, you had a total alt market cap somewhere in the range of $300,000,000.  

Right now, total cap is $8.062 billion.  BTC is actually down from $6.8 billion to $6.4 billion.  Alt market cap has gone from $300,000,000 to $1,600,000,000 in roughly three months.

So if you've made some money in the last three months, it doesn't mean you're picking winners with any proficiency.  It just means you are swimming in the right pond.  But there is no guarantee that will continue to be the case.  Total market cap for alts has grown 5x.  Of that, probably half is just Ethereum.  You can decide for yourself, but think about what that pond looks like over the NEXT 6 months.  And think about the implications if the total alt cap goes back to something like $800,000,000.

Just for the sake of comparison, think about a company like Kellogg.  Good company, lots of history, well-known, but it's nothing like Apple, IBM, GE, Alphabet.  Kellogg has a total market cap of almost $27 billion.  It's more than 3x all cryptos, and more than 15x alts.  It's also about 90x the market cap of EVERYTHING other than BTC in the crypto-universe as of three months ago.

This is a small, relatively illiquid slice of a small market.  Anything can happen.  It's small enough to be subject to manipulation, certainly.  

Speculators took profits on gains from the $150 - $250 level as BTC stalled around $450. They've deployed those gains in altcoins for as long as the altcoins can maintain that momentum.

However, we must factor in that altcoins (unlike BTC) may be significantly bid up by insiders who control significant portion of the float, buying from themselves. So this would mean the altcoin rise most assuredly a bubble that will collapse. It is just a question of when.

If the halving means less selling pressure on BTC, that could very well be the impetus to pin prick the altcoins. This is probably anticipated, so the pin prick may begin well before the August timeframe of the halving.

However, there is another wildcard, which is gold has peaked (or will peak at most $1309) and begin its crash to < $850 within the next month or so. This could pull money out of the cryptocurrency sector and the first to be sold would probably the alts because they have gained the most and there is an expectation of a pin prick coming for them.

Monero's chart is the only one I've seen that appears it can't make lower lows any more as denominated in BTC. It can decline but will retain its bullish trajectory as denominated in BTC.

[Spoetnik]

The replies in this thread just shows how many scammers there are in the alt space.  Everyone and their mom knows alts crater when BTC goes on a bull run, yet you have all these fraudsters posting in this thread pretending the opposite happens.  Notice they all have paid sig ads too.  

You don't even need a long memory to know it.  It was only a few months ago when BTC was rising and every single coin on Bologniex would be in the double digit deep red.  The coins with the biggest recent rises like Eth will crater the most as people attempt to momentum trade the new bull market.  You might have an entire two months before it happens, but it could happen any second.

Not here to argue with you but while you may be right about some alts, anyone able to click on a chart on coinmarketcap can see that many alts have in fact risen along with bitcoin. Yes, when there are large spikes in bitcoins price many people liquidate their alts to get into Bitcoin but there is usually an upward trend that follows shortly thereafter.

 I see this market as becoming increasingly difficult to predict. We are seeing unprecedented amounts of capital flowing in. I don't think the logic that for alts to rise in value Bitcoin must fall or vice versa really applies to the future of cryptocurrency. I'm not saying that there is unlimited wealth but I do believe that the current market for alts and bitcoin are in their infancy and we are just getting started. The market is minuscule in the grand scheme of things (the global economy). This may cause us to view things myopically.

I do agree that we will likely see a dip leading up to the halving and  shortly thereafter, I just don't think it spells doom for alts.

Bullshit.

  Fair enough.

I was referring to the daily trading volume since the OP was talking about value of coins. I wasn't referring to capital investments in projects. Are you saying that it is bullshit to say there is more trading volume then in past years?

No fucking way man ..your bat-shit crazy LOL
Jeezuz fucking mother of christ were you even here during late 2013 or what ?
No.. not even.
Not even close buddy.. nice try though but your assertion is pure unfiltered dig shit.
And i replied back to you here because i have seen a few guys parade this crap around here before.
They basically try and claim that RIGHT NOW Crypto is shattering records for all time highest user base etc.
..pure bullshit.
Backed up with ZERO facts.

Sorry buddy but you brought this on your self
and now you leave me no choice (after posting your 2nd reply)
You made me do this

[Spoetnik]

And for what it's worth, I'm certainly not discounting your belief that the bottom may well drop out of the alt market.  It very well might happen. From a post I wrote earlier today:

On December 24th, 2015, coinmarketcap showed a BTC market cap of $6.8 billion.  On the 21st, total cap was 7.159 billion and on the 28th it was 7.063 billion.  So if you take out BTC, you had a total alt market cap somewhere in the range of $300,000,000.  

Right now, total cap is $8.062 billion.  BTC is actually down from $6.8 billion to $6.4 billion.  Alt market cap has gone from $300,000,000 to $1,600,000,000 in roughly three months.

So if you've made some money in the last three months, it doesn't mean you're picking winners with any proficiency.  It just means you are swimming in the right pond.  But there is no guarantee that will continue to be the case.  Total market cap for alts has grown 5x.  Of that, probably half is just Ethereum.  You can decide for yourself, but think about what that pond looks like over the NEXT 6 months.  And think about the implications if the total alt cap goes back to something like $800,000,000.

Just for the sake of comparison, think about a company like Kellogg.  Good company, lots of history, well-known, but it's nothing like Apple, IBM, GE, Alphabet.  Kellogg has a total market cap of almost $27 billion.  It's more than 3x all cryptos, and more than 15x alts.  It's also about 90x the market cap of EVERYTHING other than BTC in the crypto-universe as of three months ago.

This is a small, relatively illiquid slice of a small market.  Anything can happen.  It's small enough to be subject to manipulation, certainly.  

Because the scams have ramped up..
There is no REAL money coming in.
What is?
Dev's are making more IPO coins and because of me i harassed Gliss and
shamed him into putting an Asterisk on that site you used to back up your point..
And what is it that your point is based on?
So called "Coins" with an Asterisk on them.
Why did i ask for an asterisk or something to be placed beside some of those coins ?
Because they are deceptive and create the illusion of a "market cap" when they do not!

All i have to point out here is i can simply mine a new coin clone by myself.. make 1 billion coins.
sell them for 0.01 BTC each (on an IPO sale)
then claim the market cap is now worth $4.1 Billion dollars usd.
This is how Ethereum got it's ohhh so big and super legit "market cap"

These guys doing this KNOW this will happen too and
are ready and quick to parade around their lies and games and deceptive bullshit.
Like you are doing RIGHT NOW!

So.. you buddy boy get this..

[freshman777]

I don't see the bottom dropping out of the alt market for the simple fact that one or two chinese guys will be in exclusive control of Bitcoin after July if the hashing algo doesn't change. Joke of a coin, possible to shut down in one hour if TPTB think it a threat.

[LiskCryptoFan]

I look forward to your prediction on Augur when it goes live.  Guesses are great, I like to see something of value backing these predictions otherwise it's just noise.

[vuduchyld]

And for what it's worth, I'm certainly not discounting your belief that the bottom may well drop out of the alt market.  It very well might happen. From a post I wrote earlier today:

On December 24th, 2015, coinmarketcap showed a BTC market cap of $6.8 billion.  On the 21st, total cap was 7.159 billion and on the 28th it was 7.063 billion.  So if you take out BTC, you had a total alt market cap somewhere in the range of $300,000,000.  

Right now, total cap is $8.062 billion.  BTC is actually down from $6.8 billion to $6.4 billion.  Alt market cap has gone from $300,000,000 to $1,600,000,000 in roughly three months.

So if you've made some money in the last three months, it doesn't mean you're picking winners with any proficiency.  It just means you are swimming in the right pond.  But there is no guarantee that will continue to be the case.  Total market cap for alts has grown 5x.  Of that, probably half is just Ethereum.  You can decide for yourself, but think about what that pond looks like over the NEXT 6 months.  And think about the implications if the total alt cap goes back to something like $800,000,000.

Just for the sake of comparison, think about a company like Kellogg.  Good company, lots of history, well-known, but it's nothing like Apple, IBM, GE, Alphabet.  Kellogg has a total market cap of almost $27 billion.  It's more than 3x all cryptos, and more than 15x alts.  It's also about 90x the market cap of EVERYTHING other than BTC in the crypto-universe as of three months ago.

This is a small, relatively illiquid slice of a small market.  Anything can happen.  It's small enough to be subject to manipulation, certainly.  

Because the scams have ramped up..
There is no REAL money coming in.
What is?
Dev's are making more IPO coins and because of me i harassed Gliss and
shamed him into putting an Asterisk on that site you used to back up your point..
And what is it that your point is based on?
So called "Coins" with an Asterisk on them.
Why did i ask for an asterisk or something to be placed beside some of those coins ?
Because they are deceptive and create the illusion of a "market cap" when they do not!

All i have to point out here is i can simply mine a new coin clone by myself.. make 1 billion coins.
sell them for 0.01 BTC each (on an IPO sale)
then claim the market cap is now worth $4.1 Billion dollars usd.
This is how Ethereum got it's ohhh so big and super legit "market cap"

These guys doing this KNOW this will happen too and
are ready and quick to parade around their lies and games and deceptive bullshit.
Like you are doing RIGHT NOW!

So.. you buddy boy get this..

Not even remotely following you.  I dont have any idea what lies you think I am spreading. Kinda looks like we are saying the same thing. You raise some specific points that seem to support what I said.

But thanks for the hair pic.

[Nxtblg]

And you and every other person expects this to happen, right? 
 
Remember the first time Apple was 'going to $1000 each' and everyone knew it for a fact?  What usually happens when the majority of market participants believe something will happen?

Good point. That's why I got skeptical when all those "new bear market coming" scare stories were splashed all over Marketwatch and CNN a/o six weeks ago. It was the reverse of the optimistic "We're Saved" items that proliferated in January of 2009 & a little earlier. The final "capitulation" drop from mid-February to mid-March was so bad, it constituted a (mini-)bear market within a bear market.

Given that the pessimism was so thick, I'm actually expecting a final blow-off top before the real bear arrives.

[Nxtblg]

The replies in this thread just shows how many scammers there are in the alt space.  Everyone and their mom knows alts crater when BTC goes on a bull run, yet you have all these fraudsters posting in this thread pretending the opposite happens.  Notice they all have paid sig ads too.  

You don't even need a long memory to know it.  It was only a few months ago when BTC was rising and every single coin on Bologniex would be in the double digit deep red.  The coins with the biggest recent rises like Eth will crater the most as people attempt to momentum trade the new bull market.  You might have an entire two months before it happens, but it could happen any second.

Not here to argue with you but while you may be right about some alts, anyone able to click on a chart on coinmarketcap can see that many alts have in fact risen along with bitcoin. Yes, when there are large spikes in bitcoins price many people liquidate their alts to get into Bitcoin but there is usually an upward trend that follows shortly thereafter.

Now that you've bright the subject up, it's a pity that the major altcoin exchanges don't have downloadable spreadsheets with the records of every trade since "day 1". Records of that sort do exist for the major Bitcoin exchanges. If we had both, we could put the matter to rest with a statistical correlation test.

[Nxtblg]

I think William Shatner was in that episode and it freaked me out when i was younger  
And the one where the kids watching TV turned with no mouth's freaked me out too!

Weird...I saw that scene myself - it was in the Twilight Zone Movie - and I thought it was eerie. Maybe it's a Canuck thang. 

[vlight]

Looks like you were right, r0ach. Nice call 

[BellaBitBit]

Wow, must say very nice prediction!  How long will the bottom last before the next alt rise?

[Spoetnik]

I think William Shatner was in that episode and it freaked me out when i was younger  
And the one where the kids watching TV turned with no mouth's freaked me out too!

Weird...I saw that scene myself - it was in the Twilight Zone Movie - and I thought it was eerie. Maybe it's a Canuck thang.  

It's what we call a "Canadian Conspiracy"
..W. Shatner is from Canada.. MIND = BLOWN ?

And you seen nothing kapiche?
Just back away slowly and pretend you did not see anything if you know whats good for you.
You don't want "them" knowing you go close to the truth!

[Spoetnik]

And for what it's worth, I'm certainly not discounting your belief that the bottom may well drop out of the alt market.  It very well might happen. From a post I wrote earlier today:

On December 24th, 2015, coinmarketcap showed a BTC market cap of $6.8 billion.  On the 21st, total cap was 7.159 billion and on the 28th it was 7.063 billion.  So if you take out BTC, you had a total alt market cap somewhere in the range of $300,000,000.  

Right now, total cap is $8.062 billion.  BTC is actually down from $6.8 billion to $6.4 billion.  Alt market cap has gone from $300,000,000 to $1,600,000,000 in roughly three months.

So if you've made some money in the last three months, it doesn't mean you're picking winners with any proficiency.  It just means you are swimming in the right pond.  But there is no guarantee that will continue to be the case.  Total market cap for alts has grown 5x.  Of that, probably half is just Ethereum.  You can decide for yourself, but think about what that pond looks like over the NEXT 6 months.  And think about the implications if the total alt cap goes back to something like $800,000,000.

Just for the sake of comparison, think about a company like Kellogg.  Good company, lots of history, well-known, but it's nothing like Apple, IBM, GE, Alphabet.  Kellogg has a total market cap of almost $27 billion.  It's more than 3x all cryptos, and more than 15x alts.  It's also about 90x the market cap of EVERYTHING other than BTC in the crypto-universe as of three months ago.

This is a small, relatively illiquid slice of a small market.  Anything can happen.  It's small enough to be subject to manipulation, certainly.  

Because the scams have ramped up..
There is no REAL money coming in.
What is?
Dev's are making more IPO coins and because of me i harassed Gliss and
shamed him into putting an Asterisk on that site you used to back up your point..
And what is it that your point is based on?
So called "Coins" with an Asterisk on them.
Why did i ask for an asterisk or something to be placed beside some of those coins ?
Because they are deceptive and create the illusion of a "market cap" when they do not!

All i have to point out here is i can simply mine a new coin clone by myself.. make 1 billion coins.
sell them for 0.01 BTC each (on an IPO sale)
then claim the market cap is now worth $4.1 Billion dollars usd.
This is how Ethereum got it's ohhh so big and super legit "market cap"

These guys doing this KNOW this will happen too and
are ready and quick to parade around their lies and games and deceptive bullshit.
Like you are doing RIGHT NOW!

So.. you buddy boy get this..

Not even remotely following you.  I dont have any idea what lies you think I am spreading. Kinda looks like we are saying the same thing. You raise some specific points that seem to support what I said.

But thanks for the hair pic.

You did not feel like quoting the part where i explained how i disagreed with you.
For one thing the market cap data is bullshit.
You are using that to make it sound like Crypto has been expanding and getting bigger.
When all that happened is the same handful of the usual suspects have simply kept adding billion dollar ICO's
This creates an illusion that can only be seen at that market cap web site.. it's farce.. a delusion.

In the face of a shrinking dwindling scene with more and more users leaving over time
many of you have the nerve to say the opposite is happening and your ONLY proof is coinmarketcap? ROFL
Go re-read what i already said super slow like

Your reading comprehension around here is pitiful guys.

And you made me do it buddy.. now you get this!

You are wrong and..

[r0ach]

It begins.  Man the alt lifeboats.

Ethbutters, Madeunsafecoin, New Crashing Economy Movement, and Radioactive coin taking a beating in the market.

[TPTB_need_war]

As of the past hours, ETH is breaking down through its uptrend line from the start of the P&D for the first time, if it doesn't bounce from $10 upwards (breaking through $10 will be the confirmation it has broken down). It had teased that it was about to do this several times, but now finally it is doing it.

Look out below...

[Nxtblg]

It begins.  Man the alt lifeboats.

I saw that; good call. Anyhoo, we'll see how long the dip will continue.