r0ach's Cryptomarkets Watch & Scamcoin Observer

[r0ach]

Bitcoin is one of those things that you have to kind of keep up with the variables in real time.  The Australian auction just ended, so there was no longer a need for China to attempt to push the market up for the moment.  I saw persistent weakness on both Bitstamp and BTCE, then Bitstamp had a flash dump to $735 while Finex was still at $765, so I knew China and Finex would not attempt to push higher at this point:

[01:36:57] <r0ach> gabkicks
[01:37:00] <r0ach> I would probably close
[01:37:15] <r0ach> bitstamp got dumped to freaking $735 a minute ago somehow



I was selling at $763 and was looking for another dump to $720.  I felt like the price would probably consolidate somewhere around there before attempting to go up again.  BTC whales seem determined to not let it go under $720.  It's very hard to predict the market at the current time because it's completely unknown just how far Eth will implode and how many of these Ethbutters will convert back to BTC, or if they'll be buying some new scamcoin instead.  You also have Brexit on top of that, and nobody knows if the auctioneers got any cheap coins at something like $700 they want to unload fast.  Lots of wildcards at the moment.

For altcoins, Monero seems like the only good buy for the near future:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1520564.0

[1714955878]

1714955878

[kiklo]

I would bet some of those auctioneers got btc between $450 & $550 doubtful they went higher as they could buy BTC for less than $540 at the time of the sealed bid.
So they can make a nice profit with their time sensitive investment , although the sooner they get it sold the more they will make.

Saw you changed the title, so do you think all of the ALTs are dead or at their bottom now?  


 

Will you be wearing one of these soon?    



FYI:
Side Note : Already down to $668 on one market.
BTC-E   BTC/RUR    $ 157,504   $ 668.21    

Oops, make that $655
Exmo   BTC/RUB    $ 213,261   $ 655.55    

[darlidada]

So I guess this was the handle of the cup and now we are headed for the moon?

[Monerobuyer0]

If you wanted to short something, then if the rates are good, probably shorting ETH right now is based on strong information:

ETH will break down hard like a rock falling out of this wedge shortly:



Last chance to sell!

GTFO!

But I am still not advising any one to use leverage as it is very easy to get burned by volatility.

I lost .5 btc shorting eth based on your failed chart.

I now demand a hard fork and rollback of all blockchains in order to give me my money back.

[iamnotback]

If you wanted to short something, then if the rates are good, probably shorting ETH right now is based on strong information:

ETH will break down hard like a rock falling out of this wedge shortly:



Last chance to sell!

GTFO!

But I am still not advising any one to use leverage as it is very easy to get burned by volatility.

As I predicted, almost ready to dive bomb:

It seems 20% of the miners in the ethpool.org do not agree with that. They do not think taking 4% etherum out of circulation is a good idea.
http://ethpool.org/stats/votes

The "attacker" is winning. That was much less than 20% when I looked it a few hours ago.

Nobody in the DAO will ever get their tokens back.

Checkmate.

The "attacker" (aka noble crypto baron) has gained another 15% of support, now at 35% who won't vote for the fork. The baron will win. It is an economic certainty. Money talks, BS walks.

This bullshit about Ethereum will die if The DAO holders lose their funds is FUD. Ethereum will die if you fork it. Don't make the mistake of investing with retarded crowds, as you'll end up bankrupt and retarded.

[iamnotback]

The reason the ETH price rose is because the attacker fucked up by not entirely draining the DAO when he had the chance, and a white hat attack has instead drained the remaining tokens of the DAO into child split contracts which are controlled by whales who promise to not only perform a refund to DAO investors, but also try to infiltrate the attacker's child split contracts to disrupt his ability to cash out:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/4p7mhc/update_on_the_white_hat_attack/

So we can see on the chart in my prior post that the price was about to drop like a rock as expected, but the white attack had started just in time to prevent the price drop.

I support the white hat attack, as it adheres to the code. This is a much better solution than forking.

Unfortunately this incident revealed the true attitudes of Vitalik and Gavid Wood, in that they don't respect decentralization. For Ethereum to be respected again, those two need to be banished from any leadership roles.

Edit: the attacker's website appears to be under attack by someone.

[smooth]

I support the white hat attack, as it adheres to the code. This is a much better solution than forking.

Yup, I said this earlier (at the time the context was hypothetical counterattacks)

[ArticMine]

I support the white hat attack, as it adheres to the code. This is a much better solution than forking.

Yup, I said this earlier (at the time the context was hypothetical counterattacks)

The question in my mind is will this prevent the fork proposed by the devs of Ethereum?

[r0ach]

I lost .5 btc shorting eth

Eth is the LEAST aggregate market I've ever seen, which is why I never recommend people to short it.  The price is controlled by one single guy who runs the bots on Bologniex tied to either the Ethereum developers themselves, or some entity like Goldman Sachs.  Ever since Bitcoin started to rise, I watched them absorb something like 5000-10,000 BTC in Eth dumps on Poloniex just trying to prop the price up and prevent it from imploding.

The DOA event caused a dumpocalypse on them forcing them to absorb even more losses.  This single entity that controls the ETh price is underwater as fuck now and probably desperate to rid himself of some of those scamtokens.  I have a feeling the only reason it made it that high of value in the first place is the Eth devs themselves sent a bunch of Eth to Poloniex, then used those coins for collateral to margin long it to the moon while liquidating shoters.  Dan Larimer actually talked about attempting doing that himself once in the past when BTS was in the dumpster but he chickened out.  Him and Vitalik have been speaking a bit these days and maybe he gave Vitalik the idea.

[iamnotback]

The question in my mind is will this prevent the fork proposed by the devs of Ethereum?

They may still need a soft fork to steal the attacker's 3.5M ETH:

This is being heavily debated, so keep in mind this is my opinion only. Roughly speaking, yes. A soft fork with a clever one way whitelisting mechanism + a draconian accounting system (which the Robin group has already mostly done) could recover nearly or up to 100% of the DAO funds (over many, many months of course).

That said, a hard fork still stays (IMHO) the simplest, fastest , safest way forward, in the sense that both the soft and hard fork share many of the same attributes (they both require a code upgrade, and the 'hard fork' only affects the relevant transactions). So one wonders the utility of going through all the trouble and risk when the application is nearly identical and it could be all over in the course of a couple of weeks.

I reserve the right to change my opinion on this of course, as I said, many different approaches are being debated at the moment

Thus they establish the precedent of whitelists, blacklists and 666 brutality of the majority consensus (which we know is always ultimately a power vacuum controlled by TPTB).

Vitalik and Wood both showed their true colors as being against the ideals of decentralization and trustless block chain. Did you see this slide Wood put up denying the importance of decentralization:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbT-mKBU6bo#t=444

[iamnotback]

I lost .5 btc shorting eth

Eth is the LEAST aggregate market I've ever seen, which is why I never recommend people to short it.  The price is controlled by one single guy who runs the bots on Bologniex tied to either the Ethereum developers themselves, or some entity like Goldman Sachs.  Ever since Bitcoin started to rise, I watched them absorb something like 5000-10,000 BTC in Eth dumps on Poloniex just trying to prop the price up and prevent it from imploding.

The DOA event caused a dumpocalypse on them forcing them to absorb even more losses.  This single entity that controls the ETh price is underwater as fuck now and probably desperate to rid himself of some of those scamtokens.  I have a feeling the only reason it made it that high of value in the first place is the Eth devs themselves sent a bunch of Eth to Poloniex, then used those coins for collateral to margin long it to the moon while liquidating shoters.  Dan Larimer actually talked about attempting doing that himself once in the past when BTS was in the dumpster but he chickened out.  Him and Vitalik have been speaking a bit these days and maybe he gave Vitalik the idea.

The attacker has commented about that:

The only thing I can share on all this is that the science and intrigue of smart contracts is stronger now than ever. This is a great opportunity to emerge as a stronger, better guided, more directioned and principled community bla bla bla blabla blabla blabla blabla blabla blabla blabla blabla bla.

By all means, keep inflating the bubble. For one thing, USG.MIT & friends have to bleed every last coin they got before they’ll go the fuck away. For the other thing, rape’s no fun if the meat’s not at the very least squiggling and the etherape’s no different.

[iamnotback]

Apparently the attacker feels his goal was accomplished:

http://btcbase.org/log/2016-06-22#1486698

mircea_popescu: lmao "smart contracts need state machine". yeah best thing that ever happened to scamcoin is this ragdoll joining up.
mircea_popescu: hopefully they mop up the rest of the jizz, make one big ball of... biomass.
mircea_popescu: it's not the dao that's fucked. on the battlefield of the future, which is right here, the usg.vc idiots got raped and their bowels strung out to dry on fences, and now the hot core of usgism, mit & cornell and all are fighting for dear life

Another tidbit:

http://btcbase.org/log/2016-06-21#1486200

mircea_popescu: tfoxbrewster you the forbes guy ?☟
tfoxbrewster: i am
mircea_popescu: how goes ?
tfoxbrewster: all good.
tfoxbrewster: you?
mircea_popescu: fine. so did you want to ask some questions ?
tfoxbrewster: yes. the Ethereum guys are suggesting that the claim you took the ether - http://trilema.com/2016/to-the-dao-and-the-ethereum-community-fuck-you/#selection-27.210-27.224 - is untrue.
tfoxbrewster: Their comment: "The message claims to contain a cryptographic signature in the last line. ECDSA signatures of the sort used by Ethereum are 65 bytes (130 hexadecimal digits) long, and end with '00' or '01'. The number at the end of his message is the right length, but ends with '20', making it an invalid signature.
tfoxbrewster: If the attacker wrote the message, there would be no reason for him not to provide a valid signature. If the message were written by an impostor, on the other hand, they'd be unable to generate a valid signature, and would have reason to make their message more convincing by adding a fraudulent one.
tfoxbrewster: For that reason, I'm certain that the message is a fraud, written by someone who wants to stir up trouble in the community."
tfoxbrewster: Thoughts on that?
mircea_popescu: tfoxbrewster well, you familiar with the satoshi/hoaxtoshi communications this year ?
mircea_popescu: because this isn't a single item, it's a third in a trifecta.
tfoxbrewster: i am indeed. explain the trifecta/
tfoxbrewster: ?
mircea_popescu: well, at first there was http://trilema.com/2015/the-news-in-brief-hearn-is-a-shitstain-mp-is-right-fuck-reddit-love-satoshi/
mircea_popescu: now, the usg assets in bitcoin (gavin & all) didn't like this, and whined about the signature. so i said : swear it ain't so. in writing. they... didn't.
mircea_popescu: then there was the whole craig whatever incident. where the usg assets in bitcoin (gavin & all) swore as to the authenticity of a gross fake.
mircea_popescu: the difference between those two and this third is instructive and important : in those instances, the usg was trying to spin a narrative that'd allow it to claim it's still alive and relevant, in front of proof to the contrary from ~already established accounts~. ie, satoshi.
mircea_popescu: here, there's no historical establishment. the guy lives through his deeds not through a lengthy, boring story about "hey listen, back in 1920 carnegie and j p morgan were pretty cool so we should still be getting free petrocheese and chinese plastics for this reason".
mircea_popescu: in other words : signatures there were retrospective, attempting to build a historical chain. "this x is that x which you respect so respect this".
mircea_popescu: the signature here however is prospective. "this is a signature you don't know what to do with. at some later point, maybe you will."

[r0ach]

Popescu is not the "daotacker"

[iamnotback]

Popescu is not the "daotacker"

I was also contemplating that.

There are so many possibilities. He may have just been along for the short.

I can't wrap my mind around what the reality really is in our ecosystem. I've decided to stop even trying to understand.

Some here have the vocation of speculator and all they typically care about is a good pump or dump. That is not my vocation. I can't relate to them. Some of them apparently earn a lot of $, but that isn't a sufficient motivation for me to change my vocation. I am creator. A programmer. A technologist. Etc.. I am not an arbitrage seeker. I'll leave that vocation to others and not dilute my capabilities by trying to understand them.

Yes the attacker is on the move again right now. He donated some ether into the DAO and joined both whitehat splits. We drained the ETH he donated as fast as we could but he got what he wanted.

An attacker in now part of split 78 and he can now do the split attack again in that white hat DAOs.

Analogous to the unbounded recursion of Turing-complete scripting, the splitting can be recursed. Are we surprised.

OP may actually be onto something: http://btcbase.org/log/2016-06-22#1486943

I found some interesting musing on Ethereum vulnerabilities at that link but no mention of Monero or XMR.  What did I miss?

Nothing, ETH is garbage. I can't say Monero doesn't have vulnerabilities but they are not in the same fashion as ETH obscurity-by-complexity model.

Do you believe in conspiracies? I'll tell what I think about Ethereum since I watched it from the beginning, its a plot from part of the Bitcoin elite, the same that funded and nurtured with their owned outlets, that dominates the mainstream and directs the narrative naming the "villains" and whom the sheep should listen to and that promotes that bootleg of fungible currency named Zcash. Ethereum was created to slaughter as many idiot sheeps as they can, it may look like it has a purpose and utility but if you take enough time to examine it you'll find its all smoke and mirrors, some day a bitcoin aristocrat will look at the pile of smoking ruins that was ethereum and at the hundreds of thousands of USD lost and say: "oh well it was a fun experiment", turn away and laugh, while hundreds of sheep will be look at their empty pockets and wondering what happened, because thats what they like to do and thats why true innovative currencies like Monero is being ignored by the same part of the Bitcoin elite.

http://btcbase.org/log/2016-06-22#1486939

That has always been my assumption as well.

I figured that is why some geekcool, technobabbling, spacedout WoW teenager running it was a perfect fit.

And remember Peter Thiel awarded $100,000 scholarship to Vitalik, at the early juncture.

Note the ideas from Ethereum may not be entirely garbage. I originally thought they were, but I'm leaning otherwise now.

[iamnotback]

But if MP is the attacker, it makes sense he would lure in the "USG.MIT" backers with an apparency of weakness, the price moves back up, then he piles on short again.

He appears to want to break them. That is pretty fucking courageous and cunning if true. I saw the same attitude when I argued with him in BCT in 2014 about the dangers of pissing off the USG/SEC, and he basically told me (paraphrased) "you are a pussy, go fuck off".

As I said, I've never played these games, so this is unfamiliar territory for me. I am just a developer and creator. I've never been a power player. I've been contented with the cunts I've tasted. This MP dude appears to be bored with what would interest me. Or maybe I am just attributing more to him than I should. Maybe he is just a blowhard, loud mouth, opportunist double-crosser, who ends up being defeated by some tech I create. I can't see the game board clearly and entirely yet.

It would be depressing for me if I came to realization that the only way I could make significant impact at this point in my life is watch markets all the time. Financialization is extremely uninteresting to me. I am interested in technology that interfaces with people.

I don't think I can judge MP by his ethics or attitude (don't conflate this with his philosophy which is clearly anarchist), only by his actions. He is purposefully cryptic in that aspect.

Meaning at this point, I'm inclined to lurk and learn.

I presume you've read this already:

http://btcbase.org/log/2016-06-22#1486938

mircea_popescu: wonder of wonders, check this tardstalk poster out :
mircea_popescu: "Eth is the LEAST aggregate market I've ever seen, which is why I never recommend people to short it. The price is controlled by one single guy who runs the bots on Bologniex tied to either the Ethereum developers themselves, or some entity like Goldman Sachs. Ever since Bitcoin started to rise, I watched them absorb something like 5000-10,000 BTC in Eth dumps on Poloniex just trying to prop the price up and prevent it from
mircea_popescu: imploding.
mircea_popescu: The DOA event caused a dumpocalypse on them forcing them to absorb even more losses. This single entity that controls the ETh price is underwater as fuck now and probably desperate to rid himself of some of those scamtokens. I have a feeling the only reason it made it that high of value in the first place is the Eth devs themselves sent a bunch of Eth to Poloniex, then used those coins for collateral to margin long it to th
mircea_popescu: e moon while liquidating shoters. Dan Larimer actually talked about attempting doing that himself once in the past when BTS was in the dumpster but he chickened out. Him and Vitalik have been speaking a bit these days and maybe he gave Vitalik the idea."
mircea_popescu: if anyone still has an account do me a favour invite "r0ach" over.
mircea_popescu: not only is he actually getting the facts right, but his numbers are almost accurate. pretty impressive.
mircea_popescu: anyway. the lulz has cost usg more turkey dollars than mit has cost usg this year. that's an accomplishment right there, they could have made ten thousand hookers and fifty thousand "aides" happy for that money. this means 10k angry hookers and 50k passive-agressive pencildicks extra to deal with.☟
mircea_popescu: anyone recalls the case of the famous mr nick leeson, the man who put an end to barings bank after two centuries of successful operation through the exact same process ? doubling down on being on the wrong side of the market and then earthquake striking japan ?
mircea_popescu: $up _FeltPen
mircea_popescu: ascii_deadfiber isn't teh butthurt lulzy to watch tho ?
ascii_deadfiber: ty mircea_popescu. which butthurt in particular? i've not been taking in the shithose wholesale
mircea_popescu: "oh we are coming for you bla bla"
ascii_deadfiber: ah
ascii_deadfiber: if folks want to play 'corewars', why not
ascii_deadfiber: they might even learn something.
mircea_popescu: there's no "corewars" per se. there's the bloodied remains of the imperial hopes and aspirations. the problem with this empire being that it's not unified under a strong crown, but run around blindly by a crowd of decerbrated bureaucrats.
mircea_popescu: consequently, the troop that got fucked (mit) is in favour of "defend this perimeter at all costs!111" attitude. whereas the rest of them (ie, cornell, stanford, etc etc) are more of a "this perimeter is not defensible, retreat and create a new one".☟
mircea_popescu: there's obviously no stable solution for this problem, inasmuch as it's the nonsensical issues of a bunch of parochical derps. nevertheless, i wouldn't properly call it "corewars" either, there's no core involved. periphery wars ?
ascii_deadfiber: i expect a shift of resources back to the 'corrode bitcoin' stratagem, vs the 'pump shitcoin'
mircea_popescu: possibru.
ascii_deadfiber: ultimately a dead or crippled bitcoin is the only hope the shitstains have.
mircea_popescu: well, that or coldfusion trademarked by god.
ascii_deadfiber: lel
ascii_deadfiber: 'trademarked by god' ?
ascii_deadfiber: meaning, somehow available to usg only ?
mircea_popescu: ayup
mircea_popescu: ascii_deadfiber i was thinking about this too. so now we're going to saddle him with protecting the idiots. what is this, minidao ?

[iamnotback]

ascii_deadfiber: ultimately a dead or crippled bitcoin is the only hope the shitstains have.
mircea_popescu: well, that or coldfusion trademarked by god.
ascii_deadfiber: lel
ascii_deadfiber: 'trademarked by god' ?
ascii_deadfiber: meaning, somehow available to usg only ?
mircea_popescu: ayup
mircea_popescu: ascii_deadfiber i was thinking about this too. so now we're going to saddle him with protecting the idiots. what is this, minidao ?

Ah this is getting much more interesting to me now.

Am I reading this correctly, that Popsicle head is under the delusion that no one can kill Bitcoin. lulz.

Also I wonder if he contemplates whether he and/or Bitcoin are/is a tool for the global elite. Not that I know that to be a falsifiable theory.

[r0ach]

Ah this is getting much more interesting to me now.

Am I reading this correctly, that Popsicle head is under the delusion that no one can kill Bitcoin. lulz.

Well, you technically can't.  As the economy devolves, anything greater than 0 is better than 0.  If anyone came after Bitcoin hard with both legislation and brute force attacks while the economy implodes, they would end up playing endless whack-a-mole against 10,000 altcoins as people shovel fiat into anything that has a hope of being worth more than nothing.  So yea, they could temporarily disrupt Bitcoin in some manner, then some traffic momentarily shifts over to some random coin like Monero or Litecoin.  Once the government figures out it's futile trying to play whack-a-mole, Bitcoin continues as normal and the alts drop back down (albeit with some gains from their temporary rise).

The rise of Bitcoin was more to do with a transfer mechanism than store of wealth as people used it to buy crack on Silk Road.  They would accept big spreads and didn't care because it was the most convenient underground mechanism of commerce.  When cascading deflationary collapse of fiat occurs and you have bank holidays, digital commerce is over in the legacy system, so you're basically forced into cryptocurrencies to do digital commerce where buying some crazy shit named Dogecoin that might be worth something is better than holding fiat notes that are worth nothing.

We've already gone over this.  Since there's no upper bound to Bitcoin confirmations and it's extremely hard to permanently monopolize block validators, all you can really do is attempt to slow it down.  If you temporarily succeed, people shift over to something else then come back to Bitcoin after you fail to martial the resources to brute force attack multiple chains forever.

[iamnotback]

Last post before I go jogging and hopefully kick myself out of forum addiction mode...

Ah this is getting much more interesting to me now.

Am I reading this correctly, that Popsicle head is under the delusion that no one can kill Bitcoin. lulz.

Well, you technically can't.  As the economy devolves, anything greater than 0 is better than 0.

Well quarks are greater than 0, not that it matters.

If anyone came after Bitcoin hard with both legislation and brute force attacks while the economy implodes, they would end up playing endless whack-a-mole against 10,000 altcoins as people shovel fiat into anything that has a hope of being worth more than nothing.

I wasn't thinking of the government cracking down on Bitcoin. I am thinking of my technology which can obsolete Bitcoin.

The rise of Bitcoin was more to do with a transfer mechanism than store of wealth as people used it to buy crack on Silk Road.  They would accept big spreads and didn't care because it was the most convenient underground mechanism of commerce.  When cascading deflationary collapse of fiat occurs and you have bank holidays, digital commerce is over in the legacy system, so you're basically forced into cryptocurrencies to do digital commerce where buying some crazy shit named Dogecoin that might be worth something is better than holding fiat notes that are worth nothing.

The global elite (not the expendable pawns that Popsicle thinks he is fighting @Dao/Eth) created Bitcoin to be the TrojanHorse for globalized Technocracy when they crash the nation-states. I am curious how compartmentalized Popsicle isn't.

[iamnotback]

The DOA event caused a dumpocalypse on them forcing them to absorb even more losses.  This single entity that controls the ETh price is underwater as fuck now and probably desperate to rid himself of some of those scamtokens.  I have a feeling the only reason it made it that high of value in the first place is the Eth devs themselves sent a bunch of Eth to Poloniex, then used those coins for collateral to margin long it to the moon while liquidating shoters.  Dan Larimer actually talked about attempting doing that himself once in the past when BTS was in the dumpster but he chickened out.  Him and Vitalik have been speaking a bit these days and maybe he gave Vitalik the idea.

Popsicle and you speak the same truth:

http://btcbase.org/log/2016-06-23#1487653

felipelalli: mircea_popescu: why they are so distance from the reality? They continue to buy this shit.
mircea_popescu: who "they" ?
felipelalli: ethereum community
mircea_popescu: think for a moment how a shitshow like poloniex works. you make 1mn scamtokens out of thin air. you send them to a "margined" "exchange" website. you use the "margin" 1mn scamtokens provide to... buy 1mn more! now you have enough "marginable assets" ie scamtokens to... buy 1mn more! and if the price goes up... 1mn more!
mircea_popescu: soon enough you're sitting on an account that is still worth the 0 it was worth to begin with, except that has also bought 10x to 100x of the same scamtokens. so... "they are buying" ? yeah, sure. and paying with what ?
felipelalli: mircea_popescu: true.
mircea_popescu: with any luck someone actually sends actual bitcoin to either "buy" the stuff to "mommentum trade" or else you know "short it". either way it's a win - your 0 value scamcoin attracted some actual money!
felipelalli: and a "premined" coin (dev coins) is easy to inflate the final marketcap: I just create 1`000`000`000`000`000`000 coins and sell to my mum at $ 0.01
felipelalli: the same as Ripple
felipelalli: mircea_popescu: what time is it in Argentina?? It's late, isn't? Here is 5 AM.
mircea_popescu: same.
felipelalli: are you waking up or haven't you sleep yet? lol
BingoBoingo: He's just back from enjoying the vibrant local nightlife
mircea_popescu: i'm on the tail end of an orgy.

[r0ach]

Bitcoin is back to another crazy cup and handle formation that might bring another breakout soon.  The act of reaching the 4400 yuan inflection point means the bull market is likely back in business for halving.  You might get steamrolled into a temporary underwater position by the mega-millionaire, lunatic shorter on Finex until he decides it's time for the market to go up if you don't play it right though:

Trading music sponsored by Metallica (TM)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUAdgt5Glk0