Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!

[RyNinDaCleM]

No. Futures trading at near spot is bearish, especially when they are getting nearer and nearer to spot, leaving a trail of bear market strcuture in their wake.

No, futures trading near spot is an indication of a consolidating market.  Assuming the futures markets are fully liquid (a big if in Bitcoin), the spot market won't move too hard until the futures come in line.

Especially if said consolidation is expected to last a bit of time... Say, the time until settlement? 2 weeks or so?

[r0ach]

We need a sitrep on the last failed Mat trade.

[MatTheCat]

We need a sitrep on the last failed Mat trade.

Have decided to stop spamming this thread with every single little idea/trade setup I have, covering like $10 of price action, and save this space for my broader views and/or longer term Bitcoin trades.

But here is my last 'failed' trade:




Came out on only 50% of target being hit:




And never did re-renter on retrace, mostly because I was in bed when the retrace hit.......but yeah, I do stuff like that all the time with winner trades.....exit too soon, the fkn n00b that I am....although tbh, would I have reacted when I seen Finex hit $561, and Mkt Sold my whole position? For sure! So I should probably count my blessings on this one.

[zimmah]

I noticed something interesting today and i decided to make a follow-up on my previous chart.

Even though I don't normally do TA so you shouldn't put too much weight to my analysis. I can't help but notice this pattern.



the battle for 3877 is raging atm. Although it's more like trench warfare because the volume is very low.

So far it seems to act as resistance. If this does not chance then a correction and retest of support is needed before a further rise can be achieved.

[MatTheCat]

the battle for 3877 is raging atm. Although it's more like trench warfare because the volume is very low.

So far it seems to act as resistance. If this does not chance then a correction and retest of support is needed before a further rise can be achieved.

Looks like your support trendline has just been emphatically punctured, with market structure and momentum indicators on higher time frames looking increasingly spookier by the day imo.

[zimmah]

Yes, the support did not hold, but as soon as it broke, large amounts of volume brought the price back right up there.

Not sure what to make of this, i'm pretty sure the support will need to be tested again to see if it does in fact hold the next time.

If it breaks again, that's pretty bad news for this rally.

Oh in fact if you're looking at the first support line i drew (the upper one), the price is still below that, so it looks like china is not quite ready to break the 4000 CNY just yet.

Looks like 3733 will be tested quite soon then.

[MatTheCat]

Yes, the support did not hold, but as soon as it broke, large amounts of volume brought the price back right up there.

Not sure what to make of this, i'm pretty sure the support will need to be tested again to see if it does in fact hold the next time.

If it breaks again, that's pretty bad news for this rally.

Oh in fact if you're looking at the first support line i drew (the upper one), the price is still below that, so it looks like china is not quite ready to break the 4000 CNY just yet.

You might want to go double check that on the LTF charts, especially so on the USD exchanges, which is where the Chinese miners like to cash out of BTC. On the Finex 5 minute interval charts, you will see a great big fkn 2K BTC Market Sell candle. After the reversal fractal is confirmed, the biggest green candle volume bar is around 115 BTC on the 5 min timeframe....


......seen all this before. Have no intention of attempting to short it as whipsaw anxiety and FU moves are almost inevitable, but this thing needs to go down imo.

[zimmah]

Yes, the support did not hold, but as soon as it broke, large amounts of volume brought the price back right up there.

Not sure what to make of this, i'm pretty sure the support will need to be tested again to see if it does in fact hold the next time.

If it breaks again, that's pretty bad news for this rally.

Oh in fact if you're looking at the first support line i drew (the upper one), the price is still below that, so it looks like china is not quite ready to break the 4000 CNY just yet.

You might want to go double check that on the LTF charts, especially so on the USD exchanges, which is where the Chinese miners like to cash out of BTC. On the Finex 5 minute interval charts, you will see a great big fkn 2K BTC Market Sell candle. After the reversal fractal is confirmed, the biggest green candle volume bar is around 115 BTC on the 5 min timeframe....


......seen all this before. Have no intention of attempting to short it as whipsaw anxiety and FU moves are almost inevitable, but this thing needs to go down imo.

yeah i didn't read it right, sorry

anyway that support line has acted as resistance for quite some time after it broke,so i think that line is still relevant, but now it looks like they want to test even lower grounds. Seems to not go below 3800 for now, but it doesn't make any sense for it to stop at 3800

i can't make much sense of this, the market seems to not want to go up, but neither does it test the levels I would expect it to test.

[sandiman]

Yes, the support did not hold, but as soon as it broke, large amounts of volume brought the price back right up there.

Not sure what to make of this, i'm pretty sure the support will need to be tested again to see if it does in fact hold the next time.

If it breaks again, that's pretty bad news for this rally.

Oh in fact if you're looking at the first support line i drew (the upper one), the price is still below that, so it looks like china is not quite ready to break the 4000 CNY just yet.

You might want to go double check that on the LTF charts, especially so on the USD exchanges, which is where the Chinese miners like to cash out of BTC. On the Finex 5 minute interval charts, you will see a great big fkn 2K BTC Market Sell candle. After the reversal fractal is confirmed, the biggest green candle volume bar is around 115 BTC on the 5 min timeframe....


......seen all this before. Have no intention of attempting to short it as whipsaw anxiety and FU moves are almost inevitable, but this thing needs to go down imo.

yeah i didn't read it right, sorry

anyway that support line has acted as resistance for quite some time after it broke,so i think that line is still relevant, but now it looks like they want to test even lower grounds. Seems to not go below 3800 for now, but it doesn't make any sense for it to stop at 3800

i can't make much sense of this, the market seems to not want to go up, but neither does it test the levels I would expect it to test.

You should have a look on what kind of volume does you resistance was broken ...
"The law of effort versus result provides an early warning of a possible change in trend in the near future. Divergences between volume and price often signal a change in the direction of a price trend. For example, when there are several high-volume (large effort) but narrow-range price bars after a substantial rally, with the price failing to make a new high (little or no result), this suggests that big interests are unloading shares in anticipation of a change in trend." of wyckoff.

[MatTheCat]

This isn't the way it is meant to be, after all, Bitcoin is a hedge against the Zionist JIDF global financial system, right?



For the past year, the exact opposite can be demonstrably proven to be the case. US stocks up, Bitcoin up, US stocks down, Bitcoin down.

(US stocks look like they are in for a bit of a rough ride very soon)

[r0ach]

Mat, can you just admit that you don't actually do TA and you only write propaganda to try and fit your position? lol

Every single post is like "well, I want to take out a long but the market refuses to crash, it should therefore crash sometime".  Then there's 10 of those posts in a row while it just goes up the entire time instead.

[MatTheCat]

Mat, can you just admit that you don't actually do TA and you only write propaganda to try and fit your position? lol

Every single post is like "well, I want to take out a long but the market refuses to crash, it should therefore crash sometime".  Then there's 10 of those posts in a row while it just goes up the entire time instead.

This rise looks like piss. That is why I never joined it yesterday when I seen all the MAs were pointing up in unison. That is my analysis. If 'they' end up pumping it and I aint on the train, then so be it....

....fwiw, my last Bitcoin trade was a long....the one I backed out of way too early, taking around 25% of the potential profits that would have been on offer so far....I guess I just aint a crypto believer.

P.S. US equities are going down. If the same relationship between equiites and BTC holds, as has held for the past 12 months or so, then save for the odd window of divergence, BTC will also correct. There is of corse no guarantee that this will happen, but the chart I posted above speaks for itself. If equities tank here, and BTC continues on it's merry manufactured pump path, then the relationship which came into being during the summer of 2015, will have been broken......even you will clearly be able to see, that a BTC trader who took his cues from US equities, could have successfully front run BTC for the past 12 months, as equities are changing direction ahead of BTC. This makes sense, as US equities are the multi-billion dollar per day market, and if some participants are feeling rich in this market, then they may be inclined to put a little play money into Bitcoin for some fast gains, if participants in the equities market aren' feeling rich, or are feeling threatened, they will be more likely to pull funds out of the ultra high risk experimental asset, Bitcoin.

[r0ach]

This rise looks like piss. That is why I never joined it yesterday

You don't pay attention to what's actually going on in the market.  There's been a bear whale on Finex trying to stop the rally putting up his 1200 BTC ask walls.  Either a shorter who already has shorts in, or the single entity that controls Ethereum that doesn't want BTC going up to cause his Ethereum scamcoin to implode.  BTC bulls are not backing down, as you can see from buy side on Finex.  This bear whale will be defeating and lose everything like all the bear whales before it.  As soon as people can get their money out of that DAO scam, that's also going to implode the fuck out of Ethereum, and the bear whale won't be able to fight that + BTC at the same time.

P.S. US equities are going down. If the same relationship between equiites and BTC holds

There is no correlation between Bitcoin and stocks.  It was pure coincidence that Bitcoin came out of it's post-Gox bear market and stocks going up at the same time.  Bitcoin and stocks will be INVERSELY correlated in the future, not directly correlated as you claim.  Just like gold will also be going up while stock markets crash.

[MatTheCat]

There is no correlation between Bitcoin and stocks.  It was pure coincidence that Bitcoin came out of it's post-Gox bear market and stocks going up at the same time.  Bitcoin and stocks will be INVERSELY correlated in the future, not directly correlated as you claim.  Just like gold will also be going up while stock markets crash.

When equities plummet, gold generally takes a hit as well. Gold is all about inflation, and a study of the past 40 years shows that a gold boom front runs an equities boom. When gold hit it's highs in 1980, equities were already over their worst. As gold fell away sharply, equities picked up increasing pace. Really, there is only a small window in each 40 year cycle where holding gold really pays off beyond mere insurance against total collapse of the system.

As for Bitcoin and US equities, since summer 2015, the correlation is clear. Equities up = Bitcoin up. Equities down = Bitcoin down. There can be no denying that, small windows of divergence filling in the gaps, notwithstanding. There is of course no guarantee on whether this relation is set to continue as stocks correct. I certainly amn't prepared to bet on it, but I amn't prepared to bet against it either. Could be that $600, was/is the halving pump, and Bitcoin's next leg up will have to wait until post halving......when US equities start to recover from where ever their next dip takes them down to.

[r0ach]

When equities plummet, gold generally takes a hit as well

Gold went to like 85% of normal value in the 2008 crash due to liquidity crunch.  Even though it did go down, it wasn't going down as much as other assets.  That's just what happens in a liquidity crunch, the most liquid asset that falls on the worst side of the store of value scale in Gresham's law is temporarily over-desired (USD).  THIS TIME will be different.  You won't be able to just go all in on USD cash to be safe.  The 2008 crash didn't involve things like bank holidays and Cyprusing in the US.  The next crash will.  You'll either lose all your money or receive a huge haircut by going all in on fiat cash this time during the liquidity crunch.

In debt based systems, wealth is destroyed during defaults and creates cascading deflationary collapse.  Bitcoin is not debt based or fractional reserve, so it's completely immune to this.  There is no bank holiday in Bitcoin either.  All electronic fiat currencies will simply cease to work in the next collapse because the entire money supply is destroyed in deflationary collapse.  The bank that said they had 40 million in deposits that was leveraged to the moon, will now have only one million in reserves after and can't fulfill their obligations.

If you want to pay someone using an electronic currency, there will be nothing left standing besides Bitcoin.  You could pay someone using gold or silver, but gold and silver has lack of granularity and high friction in use, making it not functional at all for international business, and only useful for local, primitive, barter style economies (i.e. going back to the dark ages).

[korila]

When equities plummet, gold generally takes a hit as well

Gold went to like 85% of normal value in the 2008 crash due to liquidity crunch.  Even though it did go down, it wasn't going down as much as other assets.  That's just what happens in a liquidity crunch, the most liquid asset that falls on the worst side of the store of value scale in Gresham's law is temporarily over-desired (USD).  THIS TIME will be different.  You won't be able to just go all in on USD cash to be safe.  The 2008 crash didn't involve things like bank holidays and Cyprusing in the US.  The next crash will.  You'll either lose all your money or receive a huge haircut by going all in on fiat cash this time during the liquidity crunch.

In debt based systems, wealth is destroyed during defaults and creates cascading deflationary collapse.  Bitcoin is not debt based or fractional reserve, so it's completely immune to this.  There is no bank holiday in Bitcoin either.  All electronic fiat currencies will simply cease to work in the next collapse because the entire money supply is destroyed in deflationary collapse.  The bank that said they had 40 million in deposits that was leveraged to the moon, will now have only one million in reserves after and can't fulfill their obligations.

If you want to pay someone using an electronic currency, there will be nothing left standing besides Bitcoin.  You could pay someone using gold or silver, but gold and silver has lack of granularity and high friction in use, making it not functional at all for international business, and only useful for local, primitive, barter style economies (i.e. going back to the dark ages).

Well what about Bitgold?  It seems like their service is promising and will make more sense to normal people.

[r0ach]

When equities plummet, gold generally takes a hit as well

Gold went to like 85% of normal value in the 2008 crash due to liquidity crunch.  Even though it did go down, it wasn't going down as much as other assets.  That's just what happens in a liquidity crunch, the most liquid asset that falls on the worst side of the store of value scale in Gresham's law is temporarily over-desired (USD).  THIS TIME will be different.  You won't be able to just go all in on USD cash to be safe.  The 2008 crash didn't involve things like bank holidays and Cyprusing in the US.  The next crash will.  You'll either lose all your money or receive a huge haircut by going all in on fiat cash this time during the liquidity crunch.

In debt based systems, wealth is destroyed during defaults and creates cascading deflationary collapse.  Bitcoin is not debt based or fractional reserve, so it's completely immune to this.  There is no bank holiday in Bitcoin either.  All electronic fiat currencies will simply cease to work in the next collapse because the entire money supply is destroyed in deflationary collapse.  The bank that said they had 40 million in deposits that was leveraged to the moon, will now have only one million in reserves after and can't fulfill their obligations.

If you want to pay someone using an electronic currency, there will be nothing left standing besides Bitcoin.  You could pay someone using gold or silver, but gold and silver has lack of granularity and high friction in use, making it not functional at all for international business, and only useful for local, primitive, barter style economies (i.e. going back to the dark ages).

Well what about Bitgold?  It seems like their service is promising and will make more sense to normal people.

It's a freaking Soros involved "paper gold" service.  It's really no different than trading the paper gold markets that already exist...

Will this be Soros' one honest venture ever?  Probably not.  Seeing things like a 0% fee rate for gold storage is also usually a HUGE RED FLAG to people.

When the economic end times come, George Soros is probably the last person I would trust with my money to generously "hold" for me for "free".

edit:  And Bitcoin $600 now.  We're looking at roughly 25 Mat fails in a row now.

[zimmah]

bitcoin is being bitcoin again.

It just doesn't care what anyone thinks

[MatTheCat]

bitcoin is being bitcoin again.

It just doesn't care what anyone thinks

Nope....but highly manufactured, and therefore highly dangerous.

It aint like there is a groundswell of demand for Bitcoin, and therefore we can all plunge our life savings into Bitcoin, safe and secure in its long term viability and value.

This is an engineered pump, brought to you by market sharks, that want your worthless fiat, in fucking bucket loads.

edit:  And Bitcoin $600 now.  We're looking at roughly 25 Mat fails in a row now.

Yep...not having a good time with this pump. But not quite a fail. I never shorted, and was never looking to short. I was however looking for a correction to get long. And that correction just aint going to come. Or when it does, I suspect the last thing I shall want to be doing is getting long.

Going to need to transfer my trading funds away from crypto altogether. The big problem I have with BTC, is that I just don't believe in it, so when I see it taking out key resistance levels, I just can't bring myself to take the plunge.

[r0ach]

I was however looking for a correction to get long. And that correction just aint going to come.

Too much organic growth to stop this train.