Bitmain's Released Antminer S9, World's First 16nm Miner Ready to Order

[CryptoCrane]

I bristle every time someone suggests Bitmain uses the miners then sells them as new. Every one of mine have been new, if they were run for 30-60 days as urban legend says there'd be some sort of evidence. My urban-legend/theory is that people are buying from re-sellers and that is where this came from.

I couldn't agree more. There is no way my miners had been used before for anything more than QC testing, and I would be amazed if that even happened

This is a batch by batch situation. There have definitely been batches that were sold as "new" by Bitmain and had plenty of evidence of use, such as dust on the fans and heat sinks. We haven't seen this in about a year, but I'd expect to see it a lot more when they release the successor to the S9.

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[latoxine34]

I bristle every time someone suggests Bitmain uses the miners then sells them as new. Every one of mine have been new, if they were run for 30-60 days as urban legend says there'd be some sort of evidence. My urban-legend/theory is that people are buying from re-sellers and that is where this came from.

I couldn't agree more. There is no way my miners had been used before for anything more than QC testing, and I would be amazed if that even happened

This is a batch by batch situation. There have definitely been batches that were sold as "new" by Bitmain and had plenty of evidence of use, such as dust on the fans and heat sinks. We haven't seen this in about a year, but I'd expect to see it a lot more when they release the successor to the S9.

So I could receive a used miner, few days before the release of a new ''s11''.....AAAAAAaand now I won't sleep well thank you ! 

[dlezama]

I bristle every time someone suggests Bitmain uses the miners then sells them as new. Every one of mine have been new, if they were run for 30-60 days as urban legend says there'd be some sort of evidence. My urban-legend/theory is that people are buying from re-sellers and that is where this came from.

I couldn't agree more. There is no way my miners had been used before for anything more than QC testing, and I would be amazed if that even happened

This is a batch by batch situation. There have definitely been batches that were sold as "new" by Bitmain and had plenty of evidence of use, such as dust on the fans and heat sinks. We haven't seen this in about a year, but I'd expect to see it a lot more when they release the successor to the S9.

Unless they're doing a little better job "refubrishing" them now...

[dlezama]

I bristle every time someone suggests Bitmain uses the miners then sells them as new. Every one of mine have been new, if they were run for 30-60 days as urban legend says there'd be some sort of evidence. My urban-legend/theory is that people are buying from re-sellers and that is where this came from.

I couldn't agree more. There is no way my miners had been used before for anything more than QC testing, and I would be amazed if that even happened

This is a batch by batch situation. There have definitely been batches that were sold as "new" by Bitmain and had plenty of evidence of use, such as dust on the fans and heat sinks. We haven't seen this in about a year, but I'd expect to see it a lot more when they release the successor to the S9.

So I could receive a used miner, few days before the release of a new ''s11''.....AAAAAAaand now I won't sleep well thank you ! 

May be the best thing to get a used one though, well tested Infant mortality on S9s is terrible.

[Yrth]

Interesting, is anyone actually using T9s? They were not available for quite some time. Now shipping in 10 days? Can anyone decipher Bitmains strategy here? They release weaker miners like T9 and A3, shipping in 10 days, while the S9 are not available at all.

I am assuming that they have the logistics nailed down and have no problem going from manufacturing to shipping thousands of units in a matter of days. Over the last 2-3 months I read more and more that they actually are delivering units 2-4 weeks ahead of schedule. Let's hope that is still the case as I am waiting on March S9 batches.

I think S9 march batches will be the last S9, i think there will be new miner using new chip after.

Why do you think so? I haven't seen any solid info showing Bitmain's making a new miner or at least a new Bitcoin ASIC chip, and they are still in a good position to make money by just lowering the price of their S9 if more competition comes around.

Plus even if they do get it ready soon, Bitmain will stock their farm first. Then sell all their old used gear to us at fire sale prices.

I bristle every time someone suggests Bitmain uses the miners then sells them as new. Every one of mine have been new, if they were run for 30-60 days as urban legend says there'd be some sort of evidence. My urban-legend/theory is that people are buying from re-sellers and that is where this came from.

Bristle all you like. I am not suggesting it, I am stating a fact. I have received used gear from them. If you haven't, count yourself lucky.

They were the s7's that went on sale just before the s9's came out. I didn't mind or complain about it. Just stating a fact. They still ran and continue to run just fine. It didin't stop me from buying s9's or t9's either.

[rizla.plus]

So for those of you still throwing yourselves on the “opportunity” every time Bitmain throws another batch of S9’s on the market.

Just over a month ago I made a spreadsheet predicting how much BTC an S9 will make you over the next year and how quickly it will pay itself back (if ever) based on the current network hashrate forecast.
I sold my S9 soon after and I posted the spreadsheet here a little while later advocating people are way better off selling their S9’s then as they were selling for ridiculous prices on Ebay and were predicted not to be profitable for very much longer.

I had 3 forecasts in the spreadsheet:
- One where it keeps growing at the current trend,
- An optimistic one in which the hashrate eventually stops growing and flattens off,
- A pessimistic one where the rate at which it’s growing keeps increasing as it always has done.

Here’s a link to my original post:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493601.msg28290683#msg28290683

Only the optimistic forecast predicted an S9 would pay itself back after 8 months, the current trend and pessimistic forecast predicted it would never and eventually become negative profit which means you’re better off investing that money into BTC now if what you’re banking on is BTC value to go up.

Now we’re a month later and guess what, my most pessimistic forecast was not pessimistic enough, the network hashrate (and thus also the difficulty) is growing at ever faster rates, faster than my original pessimistic predictions.
See for yourself, I had Feb 1st predicted at 19.79E worst case scenario, well, it turns out today the total network hashrate is at 21.61E!!!

I have not updated the forecast, just added another actual point for Feb 1st so you can compare it to what I forecasted before. Have a look, the Feb 1st blue point is well above the upper forecast.
(here’s a link to the spreadsheet for those who want to download it to verify my calculations: https://www.dropbox.com/s/v1m3xac87ptylj0/hash%20forecast.xlsx?dl=0)

And how many releases of “March  batches” have there been now? What will that do to the network hashrate (& difficulty) next month you think?

The price of S9’s has dropped significantly on Ebay now as well BTW which should be a hint too.
After making me some good money I sold my 6m old S9 for $2600 more than I bought it, it does not look like that would be possible today.

So seriously, if none of this sets off any alarm bells, I’m not sure what will.

The thing is, mining is a very low profit game usually as network hashrate/difficulty follows BTC price.
But, there is a massive lag, and with the jump in BTC price last year there was a brief window of opportunity where you could make serious money mining Bitcoin while hashrate/difficulty were lagging behind.
There was also a great opportunity to sell your miners at the end and get out in time with a huge profit.
Now that masses have caught on; you should have gotten out by now.
Network hashrate/difficulty will soon catch up with BTC price (which is now staggering) and because of the lag, it will probably 'overshoot' so we're entering a period of negative profitability for all of us before it gets back to balance!

As with anything,
It’s only the ‘entrepreneurs’, the ones who see these opportunities in advance and dare to take a risk right there and then, who end up raking in the rewards, and more often than not they do so at the cost of the masses that follow them.

[rifleman74]

You're assuming that BTC stays around this price level.   Many of us miners, feel that that stance, is flawed.


You were smart to sell the miners though, no problems in recognizing a profit from these guys, whether it's by usage or selling them off.   Kudos.

[VRobb]

You're assuming that BTC stays around this price level.   Many of us miners, feel that that stance, is flawed.
<snip>

Not just flawed, patently untrue.  Which direction is the question, and I'm betting long term it's up, up, up!  

[rizla.plus]

You're assuming that BTC stays around this price level.   Many of us miners, feel that that stance, is flawed.

Yeah I think I've explained that in the long discussion I had after that first post.
What I'm advocating for is selling your S9's now if you have them (and turning that money into BTC) or if you're about to buy one, don't, turn that money into BTC. Also, turn the money you would pay for power directly into BTC.
You'll be better off in the long run regardless of what BTC does as with the rate the network hashrate is growing, the amount of BTC your S9 will make is declining rapidly.

You were smart to sell the miners though, no problems in recognizing a profit from these guys, whether it's by usage or selling them off.   Kudos.

Thanks, I believe (and this is not based on numbers, just an educated guess), there will be a good opportunity to get back into the game in a few months time.
Either when new hardware is available and/or when all those March batch S9's have come online and soon after get taken down again because of non-profitability and start flooding Ebay. There will be bargains to be made.

[rizla.plus]

Not just flawed, patently untrue.  Which direction is the question, and I'm betting long term it's up, up, up!  

Read the discussion I've had after my first post, what BTC does in the long run is not that relevant if you're comparing how much BTC an S9 will make you compared to investing the cost of an S9 directly into BTC.

[VRobb]

Neither of which was proposed better than the other in my reply... but I will say I do both!
Mine, and invest, on!  

Edit- And yes I have S9's in my Droid collection, and will even buy another if only to use the BitCH coin I got sitting around from the fuck, oops I meant fork...  

[rizla.plus]

Neither of which was proposed better than the other in my reply... but I will say I do both!
Mine, and invest, on!  

Yeah, well,
I'm in the 'suspend mining but keep investing for now camp'.
The forecasts I've shared here demonstrate only negative profitability in mining

Edit (to keeps this on topic): the above statement assumes you're mining with S9's, who knows what Bitmain & Bitfury have in their farms.

[Emkoo]

So for those of you still throwing yourselves on the “opportunity” every time Bitmain throws another batch of S9’s on the market.

Why are you still posting this everywhere? I don't get it. Did you build a huge farm somewhere and now you are trying to convince people not to buy miners because you made some random numbers (yes, for me its random numbers - nobody can know what the price and difficulty will be year from now)? Whats your point? Do you really think that people will stop mining/buying miners because of you made some "predictions" ?

[rizla.plus]

Why are you still posting this everywhere? I don't get it. Did you build a huge farm somewhere and now you are trying to convince people not to buy miners because you made some random numbers (yes, for me its random numbers - nobody can know what the price and difficulty will be year from now)? Whats your point? Do you really think that people will stop mining/buying miners because of you made some "predictions" ?

Because I like to say "I told you so". 
But seriously, if you look at what I posted, they are not "predictions" they are a best case scenario, worst case scenario and current trend scenario.
I'm just pointing out that what is happening is far worse than my original "worst case scenario".

[VRobb]

Your assumptions are weak at best, and unrealistic at worst. So your conclusions are useless and certainly not worthy of "I told you so"
More like "I hope so"    /ignore for you genius. 
Back to on topic discussion: can't wait to dump my BitCH coin and get another S9!  

[rizla.plus]

Your assumptions are weak at best, and unrealistic at worst. So your conclusions are useless and certainly not worthy of "I told you so"
More like "I hope so"    /ignore for you genius.  
Back to on topic discussion: can't wait to dump my BitCH coin and get another S9!  

I have no skin in the mining game anymore,
But you obviously do, hence you’re reacting emotionally and ignoring the numbers.
If there is a flaw in my calculations or I’m basing them on wrong assumptions, please point this out specifically rather than make unfounded assertions/allegations, the spreadsheet is still available to download and what I’ve done is pretty straightforward.

[rifleman74]

You're assuming that BTC stays around this price level.   Many of us miners, feel that that stance, is flawed.

Yeah I think I've explained that in the long discussion I had after that first post.
What I'm advocating for is selling your S9's now if you have them (and turning that money into BTC) or if you're about to buy one, don't, turn that money into BTC. Also, turn the money you would pay for power directly into BTC.
You'll be better off in the long run regardless of what BTC does as with the rate the network hashrate is growing, the amount of BTC your S9 will make is declining rapidly.

You were smart to sell the miners though, no problems in recognizing a profit from these guys, whether it's by usage or selling them off.   Kudos.

Thanks, I believe (and this is not based on numbers, just an educated guess), there will be a good opportunity to get back into the game in a few months time.
Either when new hardware is available and/or when all those March batch S9's have come online and soon after get taken down again because of non-profitability and start flooding Ebay. There will be bargains to be made.

Anyone who doesn't do what I tell them to do is a "looser"  yes spelled incorrectly for a reason.  We see through your plan.

[rizla.plus]

Anyone who doesn't do what I tell them to do is a "looser"  yes spelled incorrectly for a reason.  We see through your plan.

This is another emotional reaction with no real content or arguments against what I have put forward here.

I'm not telling anybody to do anything, I'm just pointing out what should be obvious.
Even without this spreadsheet, if you owned an S9 beginning of December as I did, the online calculators were predicting I'd make about 1BTC/year, if you look now it's half that! (which is in line with network hashrate doubling since then)

But back to my calculations.
Again, if you see any flaws or bad assumptions in what I am showing here, just point it out.
What you are doing is just making unfounded allegations.

I am not hiding or fudging anything, I have no "plan", but I am very willing to discuss what I am putting forward here related to the continuing (or lack there of) profitability of an S9 and whether you should really own one now and/or invest in one or more.

[rifleman74]

Anyone who doesn't do what I tell them to do is a "looser"  yes spelled incorrectly for a reason.  We see through your plan.

This is another emotional reaction with no real content or arguments against what I have put forward here.

I'm not telling anybody to do anything, I'm just pointing out what should be obvious.
Even without this spreadsheet, if you owned an S9 beginning of December as I did, the online calculators were predicting I'd make about 1BTC/year, if you look now it's half that! (which is in line with network hashrate doubling since then)

But back to my calculations.
Again, if you see any flaws or bad assumptions in what I am showing here, just point it out.
What you are doing is just making unfounded allegations.

I am not hiding or fudging anything, I have no "plan", but I am very willing to discuss what I am putting forward here related to the continuing (or lack there of) profitability of an S9 and whether you should really own one now and/or invest in one or more.

Actually it is an argument against what you've put forward here, you just don't seem to grasp the concept yet.  We'll wait for you to figure it out.

[rizla.plus]

Actually it is an argument against what you've put forward here, you just don't seem to grasp the concept yet.  We'll wait for you to figure it out.

Well, if you believe that insults and unfounded allegations can serve as arguments in a discussion you have already lost.
In a discussion you bring facts, figures and evidence to the table if you want to make your case.
Especially if you want to make predictions about the future and/or question someone else's!

I'm sorry but I have seen none of this coming from your end of the table.