Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

[manselr]

Shelby, what about POS coins? Don`t you think they are totally immune from government controls?

Expect they are always controlled by a few whales, and thus the authorities can target those whales.

Centralization is always the weak point.

But if this POS coin is based on TOR or I2P?

So you have no answer to my question?

Apologies I've been suffering a bad GI infection past few days so my attention span was quite limited. I didn't see your reply.

TOR and I2P can be subverted by national security agencies (don't ask me to rehash the details of this as I already had these discussions long ago in the context of Monero and anonymity). Bottom line is that if a government wants to pinpoint an individual, they have the resources to do so. Again I repeat, Centralization is always the weak point.

Please read my prior post just above yours. Understand how the pathetic Apaches defeated the mighty Spanish.

Also it isn't just that the whales can be targeted by the authorities, but the whales themselves ruin the ecosystem. Only decentralized systems can scale. This is why open source trumps closed source. Who would invest in an ecosystem controlled by individuals.

Imagine if the underlying Internet protocols such as TCP/IP were controlled by whales.

So do you think all POS coins are eventually doomed? I think the proof of stake problem was never fixed was it? it's a big vector attack.

I was looking at dropping some coins on Iconomi cause I want to get more BTC and its one of the few altcoins with a healthy looking all time graph, project is interesting definitely, but the downside: its based on ETH, which will hard fork to go full POS ultimately... your opinion on this??

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[iamnotback]

Shelby, what about POS coins? Don`t you think they are totally immune from government controls?

Expect they are always controlled by a few whales, and thus the authorities can target those whales.

Centralization is always the weak point.

But if this POS coin is based on TOR or I2P?

So you have no answer to my question?

Apologies I've been suffering a bad GI infection past few days so my attention span was quite limited. I didn't see your reply.

TOR and I2P can be subverted by national security agencies (don't ask me to rehash the details of this as I already had these discussions long ago in the context of Monero and anonymity). Bottom line is that if a government wants to pinpoint an individual, they have the resources to do so. Again I repeat, Centralization is always the weak point.

Please read my prior post just above yours. Understand how the pathetic Apaches defeated the mighty Spanish.

Also it isn't just that the whales can be targeted by the authorities, but the whales themselves ruin the ecosystem. Only decentralized systems can scale. This is why open source trumps closed source. Who would invest in an ecosystem controlled by individuals.

Imagine if the underlying Internet protocols such as TCP/IP were controlled by whales.

So do you think all POS coins are eventually doomed? I think the proof of stake problem was never fixed was it? it's a big vector attack.

I was looking at dropping some coins on Iconomi cause I want to get more BTC and its one of the few altcoins with a healthy looking all time graph, project is interesting definitely, but the downside: its based on ETH, which will hard fork to go full POS ultimately... your opinion on this??

I wouldn't give any speculation advice on an altcoin based on fundamental technological soundness. Altcoins are hype speculations. You have to know how to play that speculation game.

I can't conclude PoS is more doomed than PoW. Right now we could say everything is "doomed" but what does that really mean?

We are in speculative markets. Probably everything we see today is eventually doomed. That doesn't stop people from speculating.

I do observe the most successful altcoins in terms of marketcap thus far have been PoW.

[bitebits]

We are in speculative markets. Probably everything we see today is eventually doomed. That doesn't stop people from speculating.

I assume with that you are referring as well to the current stock market, housing prices in big cities, the value of the dollar, etc?

To be honest I wonder where the common man can currently safely store the proceeds of his work just keeping it's value?

[NUFCrichard]

We are in speculative markets. Probably everything we see today is eventually doomed. That doesn't stop people from speculating.

I assume with that you are referring as well to the current stock market, housing prices in big cities, the value of the dollar, etc?

To be honest I wonder where the common man can currently safely store the proceeds of his work just keeping it's value?

That is a difficult one to answer.  If you leave your money in the bank/savings account, you get zero return.
If you invest in stocks (buy the ATH!) then you could get some profit, but it has to be due a big fall.
Bonds pay very little for what I believe is a bigger than advertised risk.

So Bitcoin, the price is historically high at the moment, but could easily rise 100%, or fall 75% in the next year. That is worth a punt and should be part of your portfolio, but is dangerous.

I would say that the 'safe' bet is PMs. I would have said oil, but it really seems like the $100+ prices are gone now due to fracking, and global demand will fall in the future with lots of countries desperate to pump everything they have, as soon as possible, before it becomes worthless!

[Wolf Rainer]

Is my basic trading rule, do the opposite every one does. If theres fear and "sell now" then I will buy all I can, if everyone are hyped and "to the moon" I will sell all.

[JayJuanGee]

Is my basic trading rule, do the opposite every one does. If theres fear and "sell now" then I will buy all I can, if everyone are hyped and "to the moon" I will sell all.

That sounds like a bad strategy.


I do agree with the part about attempting to be one step ahead of the crowd, but you really cannot predict with any precision when there are going to be price reversals.


That is why the safest strategy is to buy as the price goes down and to sell as the price goes up.  You can choose the price increments and the quantities that work best for your situation, and maybe on the margins put a little extra in one direction or another, but otherwise, attempting to time the market too much would, in the large majority of cases, result in bad outcomes.

[sandiman]

all i see is the crowd

[shield132]

Is my basic trading rule, do the opposite every one does. If theres fear and "sell now" then I will buy all I can, if everyone are hyped and "to the moon" I will sell all.

This isn't a good strategy if you are seriously going to trade. Sometimes it's good but in most cases it won't cause profit. People are selling bitcoin when it's price is high and you are going to buy it in that time? What about to buy it when it's price is low?
That strategy isn't good despite the fact that people are doing things wrongly when they are trading.

[Rahar02]

At the low of an investment, everyone is pessimistic and vowing to never "buy that shit". They panic or attrition capitulate to go massively short and sell irrationally.

This also seems to be the case on the way back up, especially a frustrating, meandering slow rise (after that $10 to $1000 moonshot in 2013 which is what everyone is lusting for), as pessimism causes people to find any excuse to give as to why "that shit still isn't ready for prime time":

Consider all the flaws in bitcoin at protocol level.

Bitcoin does not scale!
Bitcoin is not anonymous!
Bitcoin is a privacy risk!
Bitcoin is too slow for real world applications!
Bitcoin does not allow much more than just fake fantasy money unlike many smart dynamic blockchains!
Bitcoin is mostly owned and controlled by a hand full of people!
Bitcoin makes you suspect of illegal activities!

With few exceptions, the same can be said about fiat currencies.

Several crypto investors have complained to me about the (miners) wrangling over Blockstream's changes to Bitcoin, and even the potential technical clusterfuck of Lightning Networks.

This to me is indicative of the time to buy with both fists. As I wrote:

Classic triangle pattern forming if you look back at the last big august correction. Then we had another correction, a weaker one, and now, another weaker one. Increasingly weaker corrections with an overall uprising price: breakout incoming. Last chance for the idiots still doubting to buy to get in now or never.

r0ach or anyone, do you have any analysis you can share on the likely direction of the BTC price between now and December?

I had written in your blog last month that this looks like a pause on the way for probably all time highs, given a cpu&handle at $700 [actually high $700s]. What are you seeing in your current analysis?

Don't worry about whether Bitcoin is perfected yet. It is just time for it to go back to ATHs because there are finally major upgrades on the way. Buy rumor, then sell the news. Meaning you are buying the fact that crypto is progressing and not sell because of the realization it isn't perfect yet. The problems of crypto will get worked out over time via competition from altcoins and Bitcoin. Right now, the smart (early mover) money is selling altcoins to buy Bitcoin in anticipation of the big move up which appears to probably be finally upon us.

Then at ATHs next year, they will be selling BTC to buy into altcoins for the next wave of 10 - 100X gains on the serious altcoins.

Learn how the smart money is getting rich in crypto (trading between BTC and altcoins, and buying serious altcoin ICOs and holding for the 10X price rise). You need to first toss out your emotions and learn to think rationally.


Also on the macroeconomic front, the USA election (ditto BREXIT and Duterte's election in the Philippines) is destabilizing the world (regardless who wins, but a Trump victory is very likely for those read Drudge Report on polls and not the liar MSM). And Europe is nearing the end of its rope to "pretend and extend" on its horrific debt crisis (actually socialism/welfare/ideological clusterfuck). Martin Armstrong's correct theme has been the dollar as the reserve currency (and other highly liquid safe havens, e.g. Bitcoin and perhaps not gold) would rise as the world descended into the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Gold will likely rise more later as a hedge against government, when liquidity has been forsaken for survival. First the world moves to liquidity, later to panic.

The dollar has been rising against every fiat currency since roughly 2013 and in many cases since 2011 when gold peaked.

So far I haven't seen that a strong dollar is anti-correlated to BTC price, although afaik we do see that anti-correlation with gold.

As we divide into some groups and not all of us have faith in bitcoin, so whenever bitcoin price  decline, they fall to panic sell.
Even if daily traders like to buy and sell, but if the price decreases, they will buy and wait to sell again at higher price.
The cycle always going like that everytime before we really have big market cap and liquidity in order to prevent manipulation.

[iamnotback]

re: [POLL] Are You losing Interest ?

It's been a LONG time coming but i have lost almost all interest in Altcoins (and even Bitcoin)

You are in the "MOUNT STUPID" or "WALL OF WORRY" stage. See the charts I quoted below...

That is what some people said about the Internet after the dot.com crash.

We are merely lacking the killer app for blockchains, just as the Internet (which existed since the 1980s) was lacking the killer app until Tim Berners-Lee released the WWW and the first web browser.

You will regret this tendency to become complacent with the nascent Knowledge Age and decentralization technology which is going take over the global economy:

Sorry guys but you are incorrect. Stage #5 is not just one of many possible outcomes, it is the ONLY possible outcome. And the totalitarianism will be global w.r.t. to all things tangible and physical (including precious metals!), thus the only release valve frontier will be decentralization network technology.

You will probably need a week or two of studying the thread slowly.

I will be the first to admit I needed a week or two to fully absorb the following works of AnonyMint.

The Rise of Knowledge

Remember the greatest failing of the human race is the inability to appreciate the exponential function. Humans don't recognize exponential growth until it is already too late, e.g. on the 29th day of a 30 day growth, the lilies cover 50% of the pond and on the next day 100%.

My track record has been phenomenal.

...

For example, you were completely pwned by @CoinCube on the concept of Exter's pyramid.

You have to be joking.  If anything he made himself look foolish claiming bitcoin actually has the capability of defeating the gold market cap.  You've made how many threads yourself saying bitcoin has no future?  Now you're just randomly taking the exact opposite stance even though you know it's wrong.

We are not joking and we know we won that point emphatically and you looked so silly.

There are many details which you fail to assimilate. For example, you are conflating Bitcoin with crypto-currency and decentralized networking technology in general. Napster wasn't the end of file sharing.

File sharing is orders-of-magnitude more used now than it was no long ago during the peak of Napster. That is what will happen to gold's market cap, which btw is 3-4 orders-of-magnitude overstated if we are talking about the physical gold traded by the goldbugs. Nearly all of the gold is controlled by the elite.

I re-wrote the second part of my reply.  I do not believe there will ever be a case of imaginary digital numbers having more value than something that actually exists.  It will always just be a deception involving asymmetric deployment of information:

I guess you could claim the bankers might try to hoist a digital currency scam system upon the serfs, then they would artificially inflate the market cap of the digital numbers that don't exist as more than imagination, and that will somehow surpass the market cap of gold; but at the same time, the central bankers would just buy up and hoard all the gold for themselves.  So the gold in reality is more valuable since they value it more than non-existent digital numbers.  The whole thing in that case would just be a trick and the gold really would still be more valuable...

r0ach your myopia is that you don't understand the scientific fact that the entropic force (The Second Law of Thermodynamics) is cardinal to everything else.

We've even now seen that gravity is an emergent phenomenon of the entropic force (the trend towards ever increasing entropy and the irreversibility of thermodynamic processes).

What this means is that it is irrelevant what the banksters value most, if they are not in alignment with the entropic trend. What nature values is increasing entropy and thus increasing decentralization is more valuable if the Coasian barriers are congruent.

You will learn this lesson the hard way.

Gravity is tangible but it emerges purely from an intangible force of the trend towards increasing (Shannon) information.

https://steemit.com/science/@anonymint/the-golden-knowledge-age-is-rising
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg17408195#msg17408195
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg17395839#msg17395839
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1624708.msg16396856#msg16396856
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=495527.msg16593330#msg16593330

Your conceptualization of reality needs to be updated.

He is not buying for a rational reason of buying low and selling high. For him, it is a religion against paper gold.

You are asking him to admit his entire thesis for his life is an error.

No offense, but your thesis on a so called knowledge age is completely irrational.  When complex systems collapse, they devolve into simpler ones.  They never jump into a higher tier of complexity.  Complex systems also tend to require exponential resource (energy) curves.  Peak conventional crude oil already happened in 2004.  Peak working age demographic already occurred in every nation that matters.

Wealth comes from people doing work in the real world, not shuffling around papers.  That work is either done from things like burning fuel to do the work for you, or humans physically doing it themselves.

Your thesis is entirely incorrect.

You had better wake up else you will entirely miss the boat.

Profit margins from mass production are dying. The future profit will increasingly come from creativity.

...8<... [content elided]

The only constant is the Second Law of Thermodynamics which informs us that entropy is trending to maximum. The Knowledge Age is all about increasing entropy. You had better make sure you understand this and stop clinging to incorrect bullshit.

How is a 30 degree upward slope for the past 1.25 years irrational?

The bubble ensues next and it curves up higher slope to rocket to ATHs after surpassing the cup & handle at $800ish.

We may get some resistance at $800 and so maybe not until next year for the ATHs. I am nearly certain we will push to high $700s before Xmas.

Remember Bitcoin is another way for wealthy Chinese to get their money out of their debt crisis and country. A liquid diversification.

See any familiarity with the above chart and the typical one for new investments:

Re: is it time to start seriously talking about a $5000 BTC

I expected a correction because the price went too high too quickly. Most of the time when we see it spike high like that, it will come back a little.

They will play you as well, because you'll be the one who sells too early when the price rocket goes into a phase transition run to ATHs. They will eventually do that after they done shaking weak hands out. Your stance can be characterized as another form of weak hand because of selling too soon into a bull run.

The first bubble to $1200 in 2013 was the first hump of the typical new technology invesment. The second major hump is the big enchilada and you should never sell except possibly to trade to altcoins to increase your BTC, if you are so inclined and are astute at such speculation.

BTC appears to be currently at either the early 2007 or the late 2009 point on that Amazon chart.

If we are at the late 2009 correlation, then $1000 will be scaled in 2017 and we will not go back below $1000 after that.

And yes something in range of $2500 - $5000 over the next couple of years looks plausible and even likely.

Just look at the events around us to see what is accelerating:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1703363.msg17077372#msg17077372
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1699911.msg17077124#msg17077124
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1703213.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1687448.msg17056883#msg17056883
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg16842246#msg16842246
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg16921886#msg16921886
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg16972102#msg16972102


It Is Just Time.

Time is upon us for BTC to make another big move up. Don't be late to board the train because you are irrationally too cautious:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1663070.msg17049006#msg17049006

[manselr]

$2,500 to $5,000 seems like what I was considering.

Another statistic I like to look at is the 21 BTC holding value. 21 BTC means less than 1 million people club, being on that part must mean big wealth long term for the holders of such amount.

In order to be a millionaire with 21 BTC, we must reach around $47,000

The question is, what are the chances that we see such $47,000 in any of the following bubble cycles? is it possible in 10-20 years?

[JayJuanGee]

$2,500 to $5,000 seems like what I was considering.

Another statistic I like to look at is the 21 BTC holding value. 21 BTC means less than 1 million people club, being on that part must mean big wealth long term for the holders of such amount.

In order to be a millionaire with 21 BTC, we must reach around $47,000

The question is, what are the chances that we see such $47,000 in any of the following bubble cycles? is it possible in 10-20 years?

It seems feasible in 10 years, maybe even less. 

A 10x increase today would put us at $11k and $180Billion market cap.  A market cap of $500 billion to $1trillion still seems relatively small for a currency, payment system and store of value system... In other words, $47k seems within the real of reason, especially if giving it 10 years - yet we also know that a lot can happen in 10 years that changes outcomes, too.

[iamnotback]

$2,500 to $5,000 seems like what I was considering.

Another statistic I like to look at is the 21 BTC holding value. 21 BTC means less than 1 million people club, being on that part must mean big wealth long term for the holders of such amount.

In order to be a millionaire with 21 BTC, we must reach around $47,000

The question is, what are the chances that we see such $47,000 in any of the following bubble cycles? is it possible in 10-20 years?

It seems feasible in 10 years, maybe even less.

If it is going to happen, it has to happen within that timeframe. Twenty years from now, the world will have moved on.

I don't think $5000 is the final top (but a significant pullback could occur some some where in that order-of-magnitude and above $5000, the upside potential is becoming more balanced to the downside risk). But $1 million per BTC ($21 trillion market cap) is totally implausible IMO (Bitcoin zealots please don't hate me, just expressing my opinion).

In that $2500 - $5000 range, I would seriously look to diversifying into an alternative blockchain project with some portion of your holdings. Napster wasn't the final word in file sharing. Bitcoin won't likely be the homerun final word in blockchains.

I understand the argument about the world rallying around the system with the most inertia, but the problem is Bitcoin hasn't yet identified the killer app of blockchains. So it is still prone to be upstaged by the WWW (World Wide Web) invention of blockchains whatever that ends up being.

[John Titor]

$2,500 to $5,000 seems like what I was considering.

Another statistic I like to look at is the 21 BTC holding value. 21 BTC means less than 1 million people club, being on that part must mean big wealth long term for the holders of such amount.

In order to be a millionaire with 21 BTC, we must reach around $47,000

The question is, what are the chances that we see such $47,000 in any of the following bubble cycles? is it possible in 10-20 years?

It seems feasible in 10 years, maybe even less.

If it is going to happen, it has to happen within that timeframe. Twenty years from now, the world will have moved on.

I don't think $5000 is the final top (but a significant pullback could occur some some where in that order-of-magnitude and above $5000, the upside potential is becoming more balanced to the downside risk). But $1 million per BTC ($21 trillion market cap) is totally implausible IMO (Bitcoin zealots please don't hate me, just expressing my opinion).

In that $2500 - $5000 range, I would seriously look to diversifying into an alternative blockchain project with some portion of your holdings. Napster wasn't the final word in file sharing. Bitcoin won't likely be the homerun final word in blockchains.

I understand the argument about the world rallying around the system with the most inertia, but the problem is Bitcoin hasn't yet identified the killer app of blockchains. So it is still prone to be upstaged by the WWW (World Wide Web) invention of blockchains whatever that ends up being.

I think this is a fairly reasonable prediction, the only real unknown is timeframe.  One thing I really wonder though is this, can this kind of price rise happen in the short term without any sort of scaling solution?  Right now the bitcoin blockchain seems to be really feeling the weight of massive transaction loads, and solutions have been shut down at implementation level, both for things like a block size increase and segwit.

Will people just deal with long confirmation times (I've already had transaction take several hours to confirm in just the last week) and keep sending bitcoin higher? Or will we need to see at the very least a short term scaling solution for that to happen?  If the answer is yes we may see action move back to alt market for a time and have bitcoin stagnate (albeit temporarily, it will only be a matter of time for scaling to be improved), but I am not entirely confident about this prediction. 

[tabnloz]

$2,500 to $5,000 seems like what I was considering.

Another statistic I like to look at is the 21 BTC holding value. 21 BTC means less than 1 million people club, being on that part must mean big wealth long term for the holders of such amount.

In order to be a millionaire with 21 BTC, we must reach around $47,000

The question is, what are the chances that we see such $47,000 in any of the following bubble cycles? is it possible in 10-20 years?

It seems feasible in 10 years, maybe even less.

If it is going to happen, it has to happen within that timeframe. Twenty years from now, the world will have moved on.

I don't think $5000 is the final top (but a significant pullback could occur some some where in that order-of-magnitude and above $5000, the upside potential is becoming more balanced to the downside risk). But $1 million per BTC ($21 trillion market cap) is totally implausible IMO (Bitcoin zealots please don't hate me, just expressing my opinion).

In that $2500 - $5000 range, I would seriously look to diversifying into an alternative blockchain project with some portion of your holdings. Napster wasn't the final word in file sharing. Bitcoin won't likely be the homerun final word in blockchains.

I understand the argument about the world rallying around the system with the most inertia, but the problem is Bitcoin hasn't yet identified the killer app of blockchains. So it is still prone to be upstaged by the WWW (World Wide Web) invention of blockchains whatever that ends up being.

I think this is a fairly reasonable prediction, the only real unknown is timeframe.  One thing I really wonder though is this, can this kind of price rise happen in the short term without any sort of scaling solution?  Right now the bitcoin blockchain seems to be really feeling the weight of massive transaction loads, and solutions have been shut down at implementation level, both for things like a block size increase and segwit.

Will people just deal with long confirmation times (I've already had transaction take several hours to confirm in just the last week) and keep sending bitcoin higher? Or will we need to see at the very least a short term scaling solution for that to happen?  If the answer is yes we may see action move back to alt market for a time and have bitcoin stagnate (albeit temporarily, it will only be a matter of time for scaling to be improved), but I am not entirely confident about this prediction. 

My theory on this is that at the moment is it very hard for bitcoin to go 'mainstream' with or without segwit/ blocksize increase, mainly because it is still a difficult concept to understand & secure, fiat works relatively well in the Western world for the masses and the propanganda machine is still (barely) holding on.

Anecdotally what we see is this

- when national fiat hits an economic speedbump an increase in local bitcoins seems to occur (Russia as their currency dropped etc)
- when national fiat gets devalued, and traders / speculators / those partaking in capital flight expect more, the price of bitcoin increases (see China & Yuan)
- when there is an economic upset (Trump, Brexit, unexpected Yuan deval) we see a bump in bitcoins price (whether speculators pushing this narrative or genuine movement might be irrelevant and become self fulfilling if speculation
- growing perception that bitcoin is a safe haven outside of government run systems
- limited correlation of bitcoin to other asset classes
- hype about the potential use of blockchain tech has gained some important supporters who see uses for their industries


So what can loosely take out of this? That bitcoin is existing as a hedge against the system and that in a crisis there is an increasing possibility of an influx into bitcoin.

Take this line of thinking into iamnotback's forecast of the rise of knowledge, decentralization and an upcoming, unparalled economic crisis (a mix of his own, Armstrong, Rickards, Pettis etc work) and the future is interesting.

If TPTB lose control & people lose confidence in The Fed, bitcoin is in for a hell of a run. If they manage to stem the bleeding and implement an SDR confidence stop-gap, that may deflate bitcoin but I doubt for long. If they go "ice-nine" then local bitcoins will be the biggest thing since sliced bread.

[bohr]

This reminds me of the phrase credited to JP Morgan, the moment to buy is when there is blood on the street, if you are an speculator you must look for instability because that is where the opportunities to make big money really are.

[iamnotback]

One thing I really wonder though is this, can this kind of price rise happen in the short term without any sort of scaling solution?

Yes. Understand the role of Bitcoin is not retail transactions:

Re: [POLL] Are You losing Interest ?

Yes to altcoins, maybe to bitcoin itself.  There's nothing in the altcoin scene except pure gambling and scamming--and that doesn't interest me in the least.

Bitcoin is pissing me off.  I'm currently buying something with bitcoin, and the transaction is stuck in the blockchain. Would have been so much easier to buy with cash, and that's what I'm doing next time. It's ridiculous.  And this forum is a cesspool of degenerate retards.

Same experience.  I fail to see the utility if it isn't to feed institutional players which will take in (or have already taken in) most of it, like gold in the old days.  

Bitcoin is the reserve currency for unregulated speculation and gambling. That is very important. It isn't going away. And it will only grow. Open your mind a bit.

We absolutely need Bitcoin for when someone such as myself (or someone else similarly capable who is healthy) actually produces an altcoin that can generate significant adoption (i.e. the World Wide Web of blockchains invention), then Bitcoin will serve the critical onramp role that modems served for the WWW. This is network effects and the Second Computer Revolution (analogous to the First Industrial Revolution of industrial production of raw materials enabling the Second Industrial Revolution of factories).

As I wrote upthread, we are in the "WALL OF WORRY" stage. Don't become complacent! The nascent decentralization movement will take over the world. Just have a little bit of patience.

Look the 150 - 160 IQ inventor of open source has recently stated (after I prompted him) that he might be interested to come in and work in our ecosystem (I personally will try to recruit him if I can get healthy and get my project rolling).

[iamnotback]

I'm not believing any more in the "unregulated" part.  Yes, it will keep the appearances of "unregulated and distributed" but in fact it will be entirely institutionalized behind the doors.  Bitcoin will be (if it isn't already) an institution's crypto.  Of course it will not go away,  but it will not be what you think it is.  It will be like gold.  Mainly manipulated, stored, owned, regulated by central banks.  If it isn't already.  The Chinese gov already has put their hands on the big Chinese exchanges.  I'm sure the big miners are next.  Of course, officially, the gov doesn't own them.  But they tell them what to do.

Perhaps you missed one of my critically important posts lately explaining why gold is centralized but crypto-currency is not:

...no electricity and [no Internet]...

Such a total order is impossible because it would require snuffing out every decentralized instance of human ingenuity hiding under every blade of grass on the planet:

(for the same reason NWO can't physically confiscate all the precious metals but NWO can sure as hell make them illiquid as I explained upthread^[1] because of their requirement to be physically traded with centralized market makers who have large economies-of-scale; whereas, the NWO can't make crypto-currency illiquid because just like prohibition of alcohol in the prior century and decentralized file sharing, the more they try to stop it, the more decentralized users of it will increase)

...

Bitcoin can't be regulated without a total order of government in the world. And that isn't coming in the next year. By the time TPTB get their NWO one-world government system cooperation in place, Bitcoin will have already served its role as the onramp to unregulated decentralization technology innovation.

China and others make a lot of noise about regulation, but as you see they all end up caving in and realizing they can't regulate private keys. Even if China monopolizes the mining, they can't blacklist private keys without destroying Bitcoin and forcing a new altcoin to rise to take its place. Bitcoin is far too small (compared the $trillions flow of FX capital flow in China) for China to attempt such a scorched earth policy on mining at this time (and they would likely fail just causing the rest of the world to blacklist China's mining pools or a fork changing the hash causing all China's mining farm investments to become useless overnight).

But behind the scenes, these deep state agents will in fact *put their hands on the bitcoin market* by owning a lot of it, but mainly, by telling the main (centralized) actors how to behave so that it suits them.

That is hand waving. The only way to stop someone who has his own wallet is to blacklist on the blockchain. Now that person can go online and state that his transaction has not be added by any miner after such a long period of time. The community will investigate. The only way to snuff out this exchange of information is to have a total order of totalitarian control on the Internet.

Sorry your fears are unfounded. If ever it happens, then we are already in 1984 and we're all doomed.

You seem to have a doomsday attitude, so I don't think you are likely to be in touch with the reality of what will transpire:

I don't think we will reach stage #6.  The Singularity will hit us first.  We are just the breading ground for the machines to take over.  They will take over the totalitarian mechanisms set in place in stage #5.

Btw, I have refuted the Singularity in the past. It will never happen.

I don't want to debate it again right now, which is why I didn't respond to the above comment in that thread.

Just put it this way, total orders have never existed in our universe. So the probability of total doomsday is 0.

For machines to become more important than humans from an evolutionary standpoint (which is all that matters actually in terms of species extinction), then they must become alive and that means they must have a bell curve of attributes and have failure. Because without failure, there isn't existence of life (the past and future will collapse into undifferentiated without friction and imperfection).

Infinite entropy can't exist. Kurzweil is a smart idiot.

[iamnotback]

At the end of the day Altcoins are non existent and have no meaning until i come back here to this bubble.
Where users chant "free market" and "no laws" so they can profit off the lawless situation.
So tell me optimists does that over-view of the situation make you think things will be getting better or worse ?

It's a never ending babble fest about hypothetical things with a dash of conspiracy LOL

You gotta remember when we got in the game we could mine the launch of every coin since there was only a handful and none of this ICO garbage.

I am going to agree with both of you that the ecosystem is focused on gaming each other, and not focused on a technology that could actually be useful and widely used. When TBL created the WWW, he wasn't doing it for profit.

But TBL did not handle the monetary side and now look the Internet is fucked up by centralized payments systems, centralized databases (e.g. Facebook), centralized monetization (e.g. Google Adwords), etc.

So let's attack those fundamental problems that TBL left for us to solve.

That is exactly what I am intending to do.

[thejaytiesto]

What about the lightning network? Can this properly cover the need of "VISA tier" transaction volume while being decentralized enough to stay safe from global attackers, governments, triple letter agencies etc?

As far as other alternatives, from what I've seen the most interesting thing is the DAG one (byteball) but I haven't bought yet since I dont see it clear enough.

Also what are the chances that we ever see a global government? It's something I can't fathom, since there will always be some countries that don't agree. For example I see tax havens/privacy-friendly countries becoming bitcoin friendly and profit from it by doing so.