Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

News has a short term effect on price which snaps back to regular supply/demand levels within a matter of days or less.

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[el_rlee]

btc-e coming up, 620 now

[seleme]

Few, that was beautiful 1500$ gift for me on BTC-e before sleep.

Bought 50 on dip to 593 like half an hour ago, someone just bought my sell orders at 630  

[stylin]

The most funny thing is when those TA self-precious smartarses claim that news doesn't affect the price. Yeah, their fancy lines do it, lol.

It doesn't matter if it's news or fud or fear or hope that affects the price, the truth is in the chart. The charts will tell you where the price is moving, where the volume is and so on. You can analyze the charts without having to care about what "news" drives the movements, the effect of "news" and the actual response will be clearly visible regardless.

It also does not matter if the war is not real, or when it is, that victory is not possible. The war is not meant to be won. It is meant to be continuous. The essential act of modern warfare is the destruction of the produce of human labour. A hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. In principle, the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation

I use TA. I believe in it. Only as a small factor in my trading decisions however, maybe 10%. The thing about TA is that it is always right in retrospect. It is just hard to use to predict things. I find that using TA over multiple orders of timeframes (say, 2 days, 2 hours, and 15 minutes) can help if they all agree with each other. I think traders are foolish to completely ignore TA.

[Adrian-x]

Well, I hope not. I'm the last one who TheKozi was involved in conversation with here  

Very sad if it was over those lost coins, did Autumn Radtke have anything to do with your stressful fiew days just passed?

[seleme]

Well, I hope not. I'm the last one who TheKozi was involved in conversation with here  

Very sad if it was over those lost coins, did Autumn Radtke have anything to do with your stressful fiew days just passed?

Not sure I understand that one?

[seleme]

The most funny thing is when those TA self-precious smartarses claim that news doesn't affect the price. Yeah, their fancy lines do it, lol.

It doesn't matter if it's news or fud or fear or hope that affects the price, the truth is in the chart. The charts will tell you where the price is moving, where the volume is and so on. You can analyze the charts without having to care about what "news" drives the movements, the effect of "news" and the actual response will be clearly visible regardless.

It also does not matter if the war is not real, or when it is, that victory is not possible. The war is not meant to be won. It is meant to be continuous. The essential act of modern warfare is the destruction of the produce of human labour. A hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. In principle, the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation

I use TA. I believe in it. Only as a small factor in my trading decisions however, maybe 10%. The thing about TA is that it is always right in retrospect. It is just hard to use to predict things. I find that using TA over multiple orders of timeframes (say, 2 days, 2 hours, and 15 minutes) can help if they all agree with each other. I think traders are foolish to completely ignore TA.

Specially if you draw the chart with 70 different possibilities so you can claim being right if any of those 70 come true.

Charts can help, things like Fibs are useful tools. I like double tops and bottoms too. But in Bitcoin - news, sentiment, whales and lack of common sense by loads of amateur traders beat ass of any chart on the world.

I mostly don't know shit about charts. Yet made 2000$ today. How? Just using common sense to see that sentiment was it's going down and then watching market closely to see when it could be bottom for that mini trend to enter the trade. And then doing the opposite on up move (though I usually do it bit too early in this part when I just swing trade). Nothing fancy but very profitable.

[Adrian-x]

Well, I hope not. I'm the last one who TheKozi was involved in conversation with here  

Very sad if it was over those lost coins, did Autumn Radtke have anything to do with your stressful fiew days just passed?

Not sure I understand that one?

My bad. I wrongly read your quoted TBI post below as your stress. I'll get more sleep to avoid embarrassing mistakes like this in future.

TBI...

[ShroomsKit]

News has a short term effect on price which snaps back to regular supply/demand levels within a matter of days or less.

Funny how you aren't all millionaires. I wonder why.

[stylin]

Specially if you draw the chart with 70 different possibilities so you can claim being right if any of those 70 come true.

Charts can help, things like Fibs are useful tools. I like double tops and bottoms too. But in Bitcoin - news, sentiment, whales and lack of common sense by loads of amateur traders beat ass of any chart on the world.

I mostly don't know shit about charts. Yet made 2000$ today. How? Just using common sense to see that sentiment was it's going down and then watching market closely to see when it could be bottom for that mini trend to enter the trade. And then doing the opposite on up move (though I usually do it bit too early in this part when I just swing trade). Nothing fancy but very profitable.

The thing about TA is that it is the only holistic account of the market. News and sentiment provide one angle, but they are not "complete" (I don't know how else to describe it, English is my second language.) TA draws on aggregate supply and demand which is a "complete" statement of the market. The price is ALWAYS correct. You feel me? I always hear people trying to guess when the whales that "pumped yesterday" are going to dump, honestly trading on assumptions like these will put you at a disadvantage IMO. A price rise could be caused by many things: a single whale getting in short term (which is what people ALWAYS attribute price rises to), but also whales getting in mid-to-long term (and why not squeeze shorts and create a pump while they're at it?), institutional buying, druglords who simply want to transfer their fiat into bitcoin, Chinese government officials who will never cash out (doing so would leave traces of bribery), etc etc etc. Same goes for dumps. The point is we will never know the motivations behind rise and fall. We can only look at the charts.

[PoolMinor]

Sorry for posting that deleted post. 

[bassclef]

The way I understand TA is that everything that can be reflected in the price, is. Price discounts everything. So you're indirectly studying fundamentals.

[aminorex]

The way I understand TA is that everything that can be reflected in the price, is. Price discounts everything. So you're indirectly studying fundamentals.

Not only fundamentals per se, but also mass psychology, agent system dynamics, market microstructure, the weather, the quality of the water supply, the quality of the dope, how frisky was last night, and what's new on Netflix.

[HairyMaclairy]

Anyone that believes the price is always right is an idiot. Because the market is often an idiot.  The price on bitcoinbuilder being 0.6 being a prime example.  Any sensible person would have known that a 40% discount in btc terms in the circumstances was wholly inadequate.

Edit:  that doesn't mean TA doesn't have its place. It is an excellent measure of sentiment.

[F-bernanke]

The price on bitcoinbuilder being 0.6 being a prime example.  Any sensible person would have known that a 40% discount in btc terms in the circumstances was wholly inadequate.

This is a prime example of what happens if there is a supply shortage, GoxBTC have only a limited supply (the total number what was in builder before gox went offline. And people can bring in unlimited real BTC.

This is also why I love BTC, limited supply and low inflation, Sure there will be BTC banks/exchanges operating under fractional reserve, but to get more than double the amount of BTC (IOU's) into circulation is quite hard, people just need to take delivery of their BTC so those businesses can fail.

This also why i hate LTC, way to much inflation.

[aminorex]

Anyone that believes the price is always right is an idiot.

The price is very rarely the same as the value.  When it is, it is like a random clock, which is right the average number of times each day, with a standard deviation, skew and kurtosis which vary according to a Poisson distribution.

[HairyMaclairy]

The price on bitcoinbuilder being 0.6 being a prime example.  Any sensible person would have known that a 40% discount in btc terms in the circumstances was wholly inadequate.

This is a prime example of what happens if there is a supply shortage, GoxBTC have only a limited supply (the total number what was in builder before gox went offline. And people can bring in unlimited real BTC.

This is also why I love BTC, limited supply and low inflation, Sure there will be BTC banks/exchanges operating under fractional reserve, but to get more than double the amount of BTC (IOU's) into circulation is quite hard, people just need to take delivery of their BTC so those businesses can fail.

This also why i hate LTC, way to much inflation.

Which proves the point that the price was idiotically high because punters were engaging in risk seeking behaviour rather than being rational actors.

*edit* yes I have my doubts about ltc.

[spooderman]

Bitcoincharts not getting data from stamp anymore?

[HairyMaclairy]

Anyone that believes the price is always right is an idiot.

The price is very rarely the same as the value.  When it is, it is like a random clock, which is right the average number of times each day, with a standard deviation, skew and kurtosis which vary according to a Poisson distribution.

Ok on what basis is the price "right" as distinct from the price simply being the price.

[aminorex]

Ok on what basis is the price "right" as distinct from the price simply being the price.

Whenever its the same as the value.  The price is a stochastic process.  The value is a distribution with stochastic process hyperparameters.

What I said in the previous post was a joke.  What I said in the previous paragraph was not a joke.  I don't have a reflexive model to predict whether the next paragraph or post will be a joke, but I will know it if I see it.

V=PQ/M_float is a number, but it can only be estimated by observables which proxy P, Q and R_float = M_float/M_toto, therefore it is a distribution.  The model for P,Q, and R_float is Bayesian, and can be estimated by MCMC, if you have enough compute power and data points, to an arbitrary precision, but limited accuracy.

There, the following paragraph turned out not to be a joke.