Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

The bitcoin corporate miners have centralized a decentralized experiment. That's how life rolls. Move on.

what makes bitcoin decentralized is the fact that i can generate a valid public / private key pair on my own and send funds to it without consulting a central authority.
large mining pools are not a problem
large solo miners are not a problem
if anyone big miner doesn't play by the rules that the majority of the network sees fit, the network will simply ignore his blocks regardless of his hashing power
even if it was true that smaller scale mining projects are unfeasible, this doesn't mean bitcoin is centralized.
and the fact is there are many many many small medium and large scale miners, so your statement is false.

[stash]

Bitsamp down..atleast from my side. SELL?

[San1ty]

Bitsamp down..atleast from my side. SELL?

Jup...

Sell them all...
Buy them back...
Sell them again just to be sure!

[niothor]

Bitsamp down..atleast from my side. SELL?

Up here... atleast my side. BUY???

[seleme]

down for me too

[oda.krell]

otherwise he is just as ideologically motivated as the statists he despises.

Yeah. Primarily I'm motivated by the ideology that people should be free. Quite frankly, the economic stuff is secondary.

But with that said, you have to be careful with your definitions. You named a couple of well performing "high state" economies, but not the low-state ones you are comparing them with. Also, one needs to take historical data into account. One must also take care to differentiate economic from social freedom, either of which will have different effects.

That's officially the worst graph I've seen this year so far

Their definition of 'wealth' is fantastic. Germany, with 41k USD GDP per capita vs. the US's 51k (a noticeable difference, but in a country ranking it translates into a difference between rank 10 vs. rank 20), and a substantially better wealth GINI (i.e. wealth much more evenly spread), gets about a quarter of "national wealth" according to that chart. Something about combining GDP and GDP growth, I guess. Still a ridiculous calculation. NZ is another one that I can, from the top of my head, say makes no sense ("national wealth" near zero... very amusing)

Anyway, even if you can construct a similar graph based on a better definition of wealth (why not just use GDP per capita), the correlation is supposed to be against "ease of doing business". You need quite a bit of simplification to equal "ease of doing business" with "no state interference"... their own metric for example includes "cost of enforcing contracts": something that, historically, seems to work better when function legal sytems are present.

tl;dr With some effort one can probably find a correlation between national wealth and economical permissiveness. That however only shows that *too much state interference* hinders economic progress, not that a *total absence* of state would be the ideal condition for economical development. Subtle, but important difference.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[coins101]

The bitcoin corporate miners have centralized a decentralized experiment. That's how life rolls. Move on.

what makes bitcoin decentralized is the fact that i can generate a valid public / private key pair on my own and send funds to it without consulting a central authority.
large mining pools are not a problem
large solo miners are not a problem
if anyone big miner doesn't play by the rules that the majority of the network sees fit, the network will simply ignore his blocks regardless of his hashing power
even if it was true that smaller scale mining projects are unfeasible, this doesn't mean bitcoin is centralized.
and the fact is there are many many many small medium and large scale miners, so your statement is false.

People that work at the NSA and GCHQ would make it their business to know where every large mining operation is and be prepared to turn the power off. The Satoshi paper pushed CPU mining for a reason.

[kkaspar]

So... the hodlers getting nervous yet?
Who would have known, that a painful hit to the integrity of the market system, would actually lower buyers interest.. It must be a conspiracy.. Probably orchestrated by those damn evil banksters.

[freebit13]

"Statism doesn't work for very large countries".

No. Simply the bigger the state, the worse the detriment. Possibly even non-linear.

US seems to be faring pretty damn well with its 300 million. Germany too.

Unfortunately to the detriment of the rest of the world...

[aminorex]

It took 1.5 years from June 2011. Why do you think it couldn't take as long, or even longer than that now?

Because the rate of network expansion is substantially higher.

[Richy_T]

You are assuming most people pay as much attention as you do. Most people donate to the charity they see on TV the most. They don't give a shit about said charity's efficiency, they just want to say, "Oh, I got this pretty pink ribbon, see how great I am!"

They probably assume that if a charity wasn't making good use of the money, government would do something about it. A poor mentality too often encouraged.

[BitcoinWisdom]

Is this normal to not show any lower bids?

Bitcoin Wisdom is just generally fucked and never reports the right volumes.

a) btcwisdom truncates the order book, for speed reasons as the owner says. seeing that his site is usually up during heavy trading days when the others go down, i'm inclined to follow his logic.

b) the way the order book information is displayed is unintuitive at first maybe, but before claiming it's all wrong, first understand how prices are grouped. explanation is in the btcwisdom thread in the service subforum.

c) never heard of volume being wrong. quick check matches volume shown on tradingview. care to find some evidence for your claim?

I'm the one claiming lot's of data that bitcoinwisdom is showing is fucked up:

MACD numbers are wrong, they do not match tradingview (and my own calculations at all).

Volumes are correct if you refresh the page, but if you keep it open for a couple of hours (without internet connection loss obv). It'll start showing some real messed up volumes for the past couple of candles. If you refresh the page after that the volumes will be correct again.

What seems to be correct however is:
Price, Orderbook

In the end I got tired of websites showing me wrong data, I wrote my own (private).

If you are looking for a better site tho, I can suggest tradingview (as far as I checked their numbers are correct).

Didn't know about the volume error when not refreshing page. Sounds plausible, but seems benign to me if it's solved with a reload.

Re: MACD. Did you account for different MACD parameters? Both tradingview and btcwisdom allow you to set your own parameters, which in case of tradingview includes price source itself.

According to to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MACD or http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_average_conve

MACD formula is

MACD = [stockPrices,12]EMA - [stockPrices,26]EMA
signal = [MACD,9]EMA
histogram = MACD – signal

Standard MACD uses EMA to calculate signal. Trading View uses Simple MA to calculate by default, If uncheck tradingview's MACD option "Simple MA(Signal Line)", the chart will be same.

The formula you describe is correct however your results aren't. The argument you make about tradingview I knew about so I made sure I compared apples with apples (I'm no fool):

TradingView MACD Histogram Previous 30 Minutes:

-1.17

BitcoinWisdom MACD Histogram Previous 30 Minutes:


-2.2

Bitcoincharts.com MACD Histogram Previous 30 Minutes:


You can't hover over the Histogram to be sure, but it looks close to 1.2 (the same as TradingView has)

I see. I fogot when I write the formula make histogram twice to make the indicator more readable so the formula I used is histogram = 2*(MACD – signal) for histogram, and  when compared with trading view before, I checked all value except histogram. I have not decided to make the MACD follow standard or keep it more readable. but the trends is correct.

Correct Values > Readability!

I agree, but not all. At least make it an optional, let user know something is not standard. Such as Trading view uses MA instead of EMA by default.
Now I've added a parameter 'MultipleOfHistogram' to control it.

[Richy_T]

That's officially the worst graph I've seen this year so far

There are many that show much the same thing. I picked one that wasn't too busy and included the countries you named. I'm dicking around on a forum, not conducting a research project.

tl;dr With some effort one can probably find a correlation between national wealth and economical permissiveness. That however only shows that *too much state interference* hinders economic progress, not that a *total absence* of state would be the ideal condition for economical development. Subtle, but important difference.

Fine. Let's start with getting rid of the "too much state interference" and when/if it seems to start hurting things, then we can stop. We are heading in the wrong direction currently.

[N12]

It took 1.5 years from June 2011. Why do you think it couldn't take as long, or even longer than that now?

Because the rate of network expansion is substantially higher.

Show evidence.

[JayJuanGee]

 

I understand that it can be difficult to make changes in law or society - especially, the larger the community.  Don't get me wrong, I do NOT appreciate having certain rule imposed upon me; however, I try to find ways in which I can accept and live in harmony without proclaiming that the government is some alien entity that is separated from my human interests.  Personally, if I were to pick one thing that irritates me the most about government is NOT the concept of taxes, but instead it is the fact that money has too much influenced government and those with a lot of money are NOT paying their fair share of taxes.  Accordingly, regular people have to pay more taxes b/c of the money corruption  that has infiltrated into the most recent government(s)... worse in the past 20 years or so.

I don't agree to disagree when the issue at hand is whether or not I am a slave. This isn't hyperbole. I can't leave the country without permission and even if I am allowed to leave, I still must file U.S. tax returns for ten years. I can't vote to change the system. There is no option on the ballot to leave the elected posts empty for the next term. Democracy is not consent of the governed anyway; it is consent of the majority or more accurately the plurality.

Slavery won't go away because it is immoral. It will go away because it is economically obsolete. There's just not much profit in it anymore and it is becoming less profitable by the day.

I am sad that you live in a state of mind that you feel that you are being forced.  Yes, I agree with the government in A LOT of ways; however, mentally, I recognize the fact that I live in a community of people.  The world is NOT just about me, and in this community of people, a variety of compromises have been made.  Some of the compromises are pure bullshit... Well, maybe a lot of them are pure bullshit that are in place to oppress people.  I recognize the law as a weapon of the rich to oppress the poor - however, it seems that my mentality is different from yours b/c I am NOT going to expend all of my energies bitching and moaning about how unfair it is and suggesting that the only solution is to throw out the baby and the bathwater by some kind of ousting of government.  That is too outrageous b/c there are a lot of people in the community, besides me.  

Personally, I believe that if there were ways to remove money influence in politics, and we were able to elect people to serve the interests of the people as a whole, rather than the rich, then we would move a long way towards a better society.  

If you and I sat down for a beer, I am sure that there would be a lot that we would agree upon, but I am NOT going to agree that the starting place is to shut down government (tomorrow or next week).  Change needs to be more incremental and focused, if such change is going to be meaningful and a product of society rather than a product of the will of only a few.

How can you possibly infer that opposition to monopoly governance equates to opposition to community? That's the most baffling non sequitur I can imagine. If you think rule of law is essential (and it is) then you cannot let the law be subverted by allowing one entity only to interpret and enforce that law, because then you effectively have rule of man and not rule of law. Of course politicians are going to be bribed and the wealthy are going to bend the State to their will. They have the incentive to do so. No reform is possible with the existing incentive structure in place. I'm not advocating an armed insurrection. That would be futile. I am advocating participation in the system to the least amount possible until in crumbles under its own weight.  

I still ponder over whether we made any progress in our conversation regarding this topic.   I remain of the position that it is my belief that government serves way to many roles to either discontinue it or to completely ignore it.  If you do NOT participate in government, then others will, and the others who are participating are going to have more power and leeway b/c you are NOT participating.  I do NOT see that as a solution that will cause some ultimate pie in the sky collapse... as you are suggesting.  I also find it very unproductive for people to be spouting off that government is NO good without offering solutions.    I seem to be repeating myself.. in regard to saying that I cannot see it productive to just say get rid of all government.. makes little to NO sense to me.

We're not making progress because you are not listening. The solution to the problem of monopoly governance is distributed governance. Businesses can compete to provide traditionally state-provided services the same way they compete to provide any other kind of services. Public goods can be provided through assurance contracts. And the collapse is coming whether you can see it or not. You don't have to agree with my ideology. All you need is basic math skills. The Federal Reserve and many other central banks are near the zero bound already. With no capital formation it's only a matter of time.

I am attacking your ideas and NOT you personally.  YOU may be a nice guy, and we may get along to have a beer; however, your most recent post  is bullshit - especially the first sentence.  YOU cannot just keep repeating the same concept using different words, and then accuse me of NOT listening or NOT understanding your brilliance.  Can you be a little more respectful to the opinions of others?  YOU do NOT have any crystal ball regarding the future regarding the role of government that is any better than my ideas - just b/c they seem to vary somewhat.  You are being patronizing  engaging in a form of personal attack and acting as if I do NOT know anything about what I am saying, merely b/c my views vary from yours.  

Yes, I agree there are a lot of irresponsible behaviors of current governments (especially this printing of money and giving the money to rich people without any accountability to cause them to loan the money or give the money to the people), but governments are also very resilient and they have many supporters and blood suckers that are NOT going to let them fail any time soon....


When do you expect this supposed governmental collapse?  In the lifetime of anyone reading this thread?  within 70 years?  I probably only have 30-40 more years left in me, at best, if I'm lucky.  

YOU are talking pie in the sky, if you think that you have a vision and a prediction about the downfall of government that is more sound and more realistic than anyone else's b/c your prediction is based on some kind of mathematics (that certainly cannot fail to prove correct, yeah right).

[oda.krell]

That's officially the worst graph I've seen this year so far

There are many that show much the same thing. I picked one that wasn't too busy and included the countries you named. I'm dicking around on a forum, not conducting a research project.

tl;dr With some effort one can probably find a correlation between national wealth and economical permissiveness. That however only shows that *too much state interference* hinders economic progress, not that a *total absence* of state would be the ideal condition for economical development. Subtle, but important difference.

Fine. Let's start with getting rid of the "too much state interference" and when/if it seems to start hurting things, then we can stop. We are heading in the wrong direction currently.

I'd agree with that method. Still difficult enough to sell to voters, though.

[rjp55]

Sifting through all the negative crap not only in this thread but on this board is becoming more frequent every day. Why do so many come and post FUD and bubble graphs if they see no future in the technology? Are people that bored or just bitter that they weren't involved sooner?

[oda.krell]

Also, we going down yet?

[LMGTFY]

It took 1.5 years from June 2011. Why do you think it couldn't take as long, or even longer than that now?

Because the rate of network expansion is substantially higher.

I hate to be alarmist, but I think the rate of expansion in June 2011 might have been higher than it is now: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-ever.png. The following month, however, saw the expansion rate fall dramatically. Despite that, I don't see that many similarities between then and now, so I'm remaining quietly bullish...