Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[nrd525]

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

I had estimated that probability for 435 holding should be 10% in general public's eyes, but I thought it was 20%. So I would have taken 7:1 odds for me, and lost almost straight away.

This whole controversy boils down to
-people assuming that all bets are done at 1:1 odds (most person to person bets are done this way, but not all)
-the large gap between "better than 1:1" and "7:1"

Making fun and/or insulting someone into taking a bet doesn't work.  Trying to have the bet setup in a way that grossly favors your side and then insulting the other party for refusing to take the bet is the classic, but ineffective tactic.

In general it is unlikely that you will be able to organize a bet online with someone you haven't met nor trust (the bet against Bitcoin Savings and Trust was a big exception - but it had value for both the better who was going to win, and Trendon who was hoping to prop-up his ponzi).

[1714632978]

1714632978

[podyx]

good opportunity to sell right here and rebuy at 450

Good to enter here
Might flash 420, might not

I guess we kinda did flash 420

[elg]

450 wall at stamp is being eaten
edit: eaten

[sleger]

450 wall at stamp is being eaten
edit: eaten

Yes but there is a (large?) hidden order on bfx at same price keeping the price down

[Ivanhoe]

Keep a eye on the 3D MACD

[podyx]

Keep a eye on the 3D MACD

lookin good!

[seldon]

So now we go up slowly until chinese decide to ban some more stuff tomorrow?

[gentlemand]

Why not? It seems to be the customary behaviour these days. Shame to mess with tradition.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[p0peji]

Look at all the buys on Huobi, I feel a ban hammer incoming, followed by a big red candle.

[JayJuanGee]

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

I had estimated that probability for 435 holding should be 10% in general public's eyes, but I thought it was 20%. So I would have taken 7:1 odds for me, and lost almost straight away.

This whole controversy boils down to
-people assuming that all bets are done at 1:1 odds (most person to person bets are done this way, but not all)
-the large gap between "better than 1:1" and "7:1"

Making fun and/or insulting someone into taking a bet doesn't work.  Trying to have the bet setup in a way that grossly favors your side and then insulting the other party for refusing to take the bet is the classic, but ineffective tactic.

In general it is unlikely that you will be able to organize a bet online with someone you haven't met nor trust (the bet against Bitcoin Savings and Trust was a big exception - but it had value for both the better who was going to win, and Trendon who was hoping to prop-up his ponzi).

It seems that a lot of people are missing the point, and that is Rpietila proposed to bet.

Rpietila weasled out of making any bet by making the matter more complicated than it needed to be.  If he truly wanted odds, then he should have clearly and unambiguously reiterated that point and made his proposed odds clear, but he did NOT. 

His talk about odds was ambiguous at best b/c he spoke out of two sides of his mouth by saying out of one side of his mouth that the price would never reach $435.. and then saying out of the other side of his mouth that he wants odds in his favor.  These two statements are ambiguous and seem to be contradictory and it was up to him to clarify them.. and he failed/refused to clarify until afterwards.. and even afterwards it remains unclear what bet and what odds he would have taken in such hypothetical circumstances.

[y3804]

So now we go up slowly until chinese decide to ban some more stuff tomorrow?

Just look at Huobi orders on bitcoinwisdom... Volume is so fake. 1 real order every 5 minute, literally

[dreamspark]

Its the same guy with his 299 constantly moving bids thats pushing us up in the same way the March run to $700 was pushed up.

[Erdogan]

Someone is trying to buy under the radar, Huobi.

You see it on the smooth upper edge of the minute chart, wisdom.

[RUEHL]

Its the same guy with his 299 constantly moving bids thats pushing us up in the same way the March run to $700 was pushed up.

yea, this appears to be manipulation at its finest.  suspect when chinese wake up in 2 hrs, something's going to give...

[dreamspark]

Stamp also with much less volume than Huobi over the last few hours.

[nioc]

round numbers are not psychological barriers

[xulescu]

Someone is trying to buy under the radar, Huobi.

You see it on the smooth upper edge of the minute chart, wisdom.

If that's what "under the radar" means... maybe they assume everybody has a 19th century radar...

[JorgeStolfi]

round numbers are not psychological barriers

Robots and formulas have no respect for round numbers.

[macsga]

Nonsense, there was a quadruple bottom and I saw it:
WARNING!
LEGIT TA FOLLOWS:


In other words:

CCMF!!!!!1