What are monkey's thoughts on bubbles? Specifically speculative ones, I'm not really that fussed about his approach to soapy water.
The idea seems to be very popular around here but they don't seem to want to arrive on time.
I can tell you how he did on btc historically on longer scales, easily enough. Anything more in-depth would require work, which my physician says could trigger an allergic reaction.
Monthly:
The monkey has never been bearish. He wanted me in BTC from January to August 2011, July 2012 to June 2013, and completely missed the November 2013 event.
He has demanded that I be in BTC since the end of June.
Nov. 2013 event, weekly:
He thought one might be starting in the first week of August last year, but kinda got weary of the wait in the last full week of September, while still holding out hope.
Then he said it was starting for real the week of 18 October, although he allowed that if it failed it would fail badly, early on. When it didn't, he went into high alert mode 1 November,
until 29 November. He held out hope of a more upside until 13 Dec, and then basically gave up on it. He never called a bottom after that, on a weekly basis.
Mar. 2013 event, weekly:
In the previous instance he starting twitching 11 January, got really worried (similar to his 18 October worries) the weeks of 22 Feb, 8 Mar, but keep the choo choo flag flying.
He dropped it on 5 April.
Daily anecdotes:
The daily scale performance is a bit better, but completely missed the late november blow-off top. Some of the topping and trapping is just too fast for the weekly analysis mode, so this isn't surprising. Also there's more training on these scales. (Monkey does not train on bitcoin data at all, just stocks, commodities, fixed income and forex.) He is now long, 4 days running. Previously he was long 16 May to 26 May, short 14 March to 2 April, short 5 February to 13 February, long 13 Dec 2013 to 2 Jan 2014, long 8 October to 11 November 2013.
On the daily in early 2013 he is absolutely amazing, picking out the two major up swings from 15 Mar, and capturing the bubble top before giving up just in time, nailing it. He also saw a bull move May 7 to 17, but did not make any short recommendations from October 2012 until 30 May. He then picked out the two strongest down-swings, up to 3 July 2013, with excellent precision, indicating shorts.
At this point I have to go do something else, so I won't report any more particulars right now, except to say that intraday he is urging me long and longer, right now.
Poll
